Atmospheric Research

HOT COWS!

Presentation of pilot risk assessment to stakeholders

• Probability of climate change in terms of milk loss

• Adaptation assessment• Planning horizons

Atmospheric Research

Heat stress model

Temperature / Heat Index (THI)Maximum temperature and dewpoint

temperature

• THI = Tmax + 0.36 Tdewpoint + 41.2

Atmospheric Research

Production effects

THI between 79 and 88

THI between 72 and 78

mild stress no stress

moderate stress mild stress

Atmospheric Research

Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >72)

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C)

Max

imum

Te

mpe

ratu

re C

hang

e (°

C)

280 (4%)

350 (5%)

420 (6%)

490 (7%)

540 (8%)

630 (9%)

700 (10%)

Atmospheric Research

Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >78)

280 (4%)

210 (3%)

140 (2%)

70 (1%)

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C)

Max

imum

Te

mpe

ratu

re C

hang

e (°

C)

Atmospheric Research

Constructing climate probabilities formaximum temperature in 2070

Global Warming

0.7 2.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

0.95 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.45

Local Tmax Change per DGW

Fre

quen

cy (

perc

ent)

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.75 1.35 2.05 2.75

Local Tmax Change

Fre

quen

cy (

perc

ent)

Atmospheric Research

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.2 0.6 1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3

Local Tdew Change

Fre

quen

cy (

perc

ent)

Constructing climate probabilities fordewpoint temperature in 2070

Global Warming

0.7 2.1

Regional Dewpoint Change per DGW

0.0 1.5

Atmospheric Research

Risk response surface - 2070

0 1 2 3 4 5 60

1

2

3

4

5

6

Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C)

Max

imum

Tem

pera

ture

Cha

nge

(°C

)

50–60%

60–70%

70–80%

80–90%

90–95%

95–100%

0–50%

Probability ofclimate changeoccurring withinthis range (%)

280 (4%)

350 (5%)

420 (6%)

490 (7%)

540 (8%)

630 (9%)

700 (10%)

THI72

THI78

Atmospheric Research

Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI72

Poorest Heat Stress Management (THI72)

210

280

350

420

490

560

630

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Year

Milk

loss

(L

/co

w/y

ea

r)

All

67%50%33%

None

Atmospheric Research

Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI78

Best Heat Stress Management (THI78)

0

70

140

210

280

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Year

Milk

loss

(L

/co

w/y

ea

r)

All

67%50%33%

None

Atmospheric Research

Milk gain due to adaptation from THI72 to THI78

Projected Benefits of Adaptation from Poorest to Best

140

210

280

350

420

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Year

Milk

ga

in (

L/c

ow

/ye

ar)

All

67%50%33%

None

Atmospheric Research

Planning horizons and windows of adaptation

Poorest Heat Stress Management (THI72)

210

280

350

420

490

560

630

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090

Year

Milk

loss

(L

/co

w/y

ea

r)

All

67%50%33%

None

Planning horizon