attachment to testimony of joseph bowring ohio energy mandates study committee april 16, 2015

Attachment to Testimony of Joseph Bowring Ohio Energy Mandates Study Committee

April 16, 2015

Figure 1-1 PJM’s footprint and its 20 control zones

©2015 www.monitoringanalytics.com 2

Figure 3-4 Average PJM aggregate real-time generation supply curves by offer price: Summer of 2013 and 2014


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Figure 3-30 PJM real-time, monthly and annual, load-weighted, average LMP: 1999 through 2014


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Figure 3-29 PJM real-time, load-weighted, average LMP: 2014


Figure 5-4 History of PJM capacity prices: 1999/2000 through 2017/2018


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Table 5-3 PJM installed capacity (By fuel source): January 1, May 31, June 1, and December 31, 2014


MW Percent MW Percent MW Percent MW PercentCoal 75,544.6 41.3% 75,253.0 41.1% 74,785.5 40.6% 73,015.3 39.7%Gas 53,395.0 29.2% 53,841.6 29.4% 55,041.7 29.9% 56,364.5 30.7%Hydroelectric 8,106.7 4.4% 8,135.7 4.4% 8,463.8 4.6% 8,765.3 4.8%Nuclear 33,076.7 18.1% 33,073.7 18.0% 32,891.0 17.9% 32,947.1 17.9%Oil 11,314.2 6.2% 11,290.4 6.2% 11,155.7 6.1% 10,931.7 6.0%Solar 84.2 0.0% 84.2 0.0% 94.7 0.1% 97.5 0.1%Solid waste 701.4 0.4% 701.4 0.4% 780.0 0.4% 780.0 0.4%Wind 872.4 0.5% 872.4 0.5% 796.7 0.4% 822.7 0.4%Total 183,095.2 100.0% 183,252.4 100.0% 184,009.1 100.0% 183,724.1 100.0%

31-Dec-1431-May-141-Jan-14 1-Jun-14

Table 3-8 PJM generation (By fuel source (GWh)): 2013 and 2014


Gwh Percent GWh PercentCoal 356,018.0 44.5% 351,456.5 43.5% (1.3%)

Standard Coal 346,188.8 43.3% 341,538.6 42.3% (1.3%)Waste Coal 9,829.2 1.2% 9,918.0 1.2% 0.9%

Nuclear 277,277.8 34.7% 277,635.6 34.3% 0.1%Gas 130,230.9 16.3% 140,076.4 17.3% 7.6%

Natural Gas 127,855.5 16.0% 137,503.6 17.0% 7.5%Landfill Gas 2,321.0 0.3% 2,369.4 0.3% 2.1%

Biomass Gas 54.5 0.0% 203.5 0.0% 273.3%Hydroelectric 14,116.4 1.8% 14,394.3 1.8% 2.0%

Pumped Storage 6,690.4 0.8% 7,138.7 0.9% 6.7%Run of River 7,426.0 0.9% 7,255.5 0.9% (2.3%)

Wind 14,854.1 1.9% 15,540.5 1.9% 4.6%Waste 5,040.1 0.6% 5,472.4 0.7% 8.6%

Solid Waste 4,185.0 0.5% 4,566.5 0.6% 9.1%Miscellaneous 855.1 0.1% 905.9 0.1% 5.9%

Oil 1,948.5 0.2% 3,299.9 0.4% 69.4%Heavy Oil 1,730.7 0.2% 2,742.1 0.3% 58.4%

Light Oil 187.2 0.0% 480.0 0.1% 156.5%Diesel 14.8 0.0% 52.5 0.0% 253.6%

Kerosene 15.7 0.0% 25.3 0.0% 61.3%Jet Oil 0.1 0.0% 0.1 0.0% (38.6%)

Solar, Net Energy Metering 355.0 0.0% 404.6 0.0% 13.7%Battery 0.7 0.0% 6.5 0.0% 807.7%Total 799,841.7 100.0% 808,286.8 100.0% 1.1%

2013 2014Change in Output

Figure 3-11 Map of PJM real-time generation less real-time load by zone: 2014


Table 8-4 Renewable standards of PJM jurisdictions to 2024


Jurisdiction 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Delaware 10.00% 11.50% 13.00% 14.50% 16.00% 17.50% 19.00% 20.00% 21.00% 22.00% 23.00%Illinois 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.50% 13.00% 14.50% 16.00% 17.50% 19.00% 20.50% 22.00%Indiana 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00%Kentucky No StandardMaryland 12.80% 13.00% 15.20% 15.60% 18.30% 17.40% 18.00% 18.70% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%Michigan 6.75% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%New Jersey 12.53% 13.76% 14.90% 15.99% 18.03% 19.97% 21.91% 23.85% 23.94% 24.03% 24.12%North Carolina 3.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50% 12.50%Ohio 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 3.50% 4.50% 5.50% 6.50% 7.50% 8.50% 9.50% 10.50%Pennsylvania 10.72% 11.22% 13.72% 14.22% 14.72% 15.22% 15.72% 18.02% 18.02% 18.02% 18.02%Tennessee No StandardVirginia 4.00% 4.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 7.00% 12.00% 12.00% 12.00%Washington, D.C. 10.50% 12.00% 13.50% 15.00% 16.50% 18.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00% 20.00%West Virginia No Standard

Table 8-6 Solar renewable standards of PJM jurisdictions 2014 to 2024


Jurisdiction 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Delaware 0.80% 1.00% 1.25% 1.50% 1.75% 2.00% 2.25% 2.50% 2.75% 3.00% 3.25%Illinois 0.12% 0.27% 0.60% 0.69% 0.78% 0.87% 0.96% 1.05% 1.14% 1.23% 1.32%Indiana No Solar StandardKentucky No StandardMaryland 0.35% 0.50% 0.70% 0.95% 1.40% 1.75% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%Michigan No Solar StandardNew Jersey 2.05% 2.45% 2.75% 3.00% 3.20% 3.29% 3.38% 3.47% 3.56% 3.65% 3.74%North Carolina 0.07% 0.14% 0.14% 0.14% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%Ohio 0.12% 0.12% 0.12% 0.15% 0.18% 0.22% 0.26% 0.30% 0.34% 0.38% 0.42%Pennsylvania 0.08% 0.14% 0.25% 0.29% 0.34% 0.39% 0.44% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%Tennessee No StandardVirginia No Solar StandardWashington, D.C. 0.60% 0.70% 0.83% 0.98% 1.15% 1.35% 1.58% 1.85% 2.18% 2.50% 2.50%West Virginia No Solar Standard

Figure 12-1 Map of PJM unit retirements: 2011 through 2019


Figure 8-2 Average hourly real-time generation of wind units in PJM: 2014


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Figure 8-4 Marginal fuel at time of wind generation in PJM: 2014


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Table 8-16 Capacity factor of wind units in PJM: 2014


Type of ResourceCapacity

FactorInstalled Capacity

(MW)Energy-Only Resource 18.2% 804Capacity Resource 28.8% 5,798All Units 27.8% 6,602

Table 8-17 Capacity factor of wind units in PJM by month, 2013 and 2014


Month Generation (MWh) Capacity Factor Generation (MWh) Capacity FactorJanuary 1,784,359.3 40.3% 1,918,441.4 40.7%February 1,397,468.3 35.4% 1,342,055.5 31.5%March 1,606,248.3 36.5% 1,661,382.1 35.3%April 1,639,590.9 37.8% 1,697,703.3 37.2%May 1,271,272.4 28.5% 1,238,061.3 26.2%June 862,532.2 19.8% 820,312.2 18.0%July 588,174.8 13.4% 757,166.8 16.0%August 510,448.5 12.0% 566,425.3 12.0%September 719,196.4 16.7% 721,411.2 15.8%October 1,070,829.4 23.5% 1,416,878.2 30.0%November 1,833,051.6 41.2% 1,949,112.9 41.5%December 1,543,685.2 34.2% 1,451,542.0 29.7%Annual 14,826,857.3 28.3% 15,540,492.0 27.8%

Wind Percent Recovery of Levelized Costs


Zone 2012 2013 2014 ComEd 67% 77% 93%PENELEC 64% 79% 99%

Figure 8-5 Average hourly real-time generation of solar units in PJM: 2014


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Zone 2012 2013 2014 PSEG 100% 166% 190%

Table 1 Summary of sensitivity results: 2017/2018 RPM Base Residual Auction


Scenario Scenario DescriptionRPM Revenue

($ per Delivery Year)RPM Revenue

($ per Delivery Year)Percentage

0 Actual Results $7,512,229,630 NA NA1 Annual Resources Only $9,738,222,922 $2,225,993,292 29.6%2 No Offers for DR or EE (Generation Resources Only) $16,859,658,203 $9,347,428,573 124.4%

3No Short-Term Resource Procurement Target Reduction from VRR Curve $9,947,329,539 $2,435,099,909 32.4%

3A No Short-Term Resource Procurement Target Reduction $9,967,834,187 $2,455,604,557 32.7%

4No Short-Term Resource Procurement Target Reduction and Annual Resources Only $10,932,522,889 $3,420,293,259 45.5%

5No Short-Term Resource Procurement Target Reduction and No Offers for DR or EE (Generation Resources Only) $23,870,404,571 $16,358,174,941 217.8%

Difference from Actual Results

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attachment to testimony of joseph bowring ohio energy mandates study committee april 16, 2015

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pjm generation

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history of pjm capacity

realtime load

map of pjm unit retirements

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