attorney / client privileged confidential draft starz / netflix considerations for sony internal use...
TRANSCRIPT
ATTORNEY / CLIENT PRIVILEGED
Confidential Draft
Starz / Netflix ConsiderationsFOR SONY INTERNAL USE ONLY
December 1, 2008
[DRAFT]
2
Executive Summary
• We have made progress toward an extension and a framework for Starz’ approach to internet SOD
• By delaying the XBOX launch to December 15, we delayed our need to file a TRO until December 12. Our goal is to close a deal beforehand
• The terms currently being discussed would:
– Extend the output deal through 2016 (currently expires in 2013)
– Adjust rate card while retaining bonus payments; generating $160-$225MM in annual revenue during the extension
– Introduce title caps; but maintain flexibility with regard to slate / title mix
– Provide additional benefits (extend VOD to 72 hours, decrease EST price floor)
– Address internet SOD, requiring premium pricing and branding with some financial upside opportunity for SPE
3
Overall Deal Parameters
Extension • 3 year extension • Extends beyond current deal, which expires 2013• Provides Sony security of Pay TV deal through 2016
Value • Annual value in 2014-2016 of $160MM - $225MM
• Above market• Specific annual fees depend on slate• $40MM bonus + 35% rate reduction translates to a roughly
30% decrease in all-in fees
Above Market Deal Terms
• 50 title cap• $40MM bonus• Overall rate card
• All studios have title caps; ours would be the highest and is distinct from a cap on absolute dollar fees
• We would receive the only bonus in the industry• Rate card would be above market, even after reductions
Other Benefits
• 72 hour PPV/VOD viewing• Reduce Pay 2 EST Floor to $3.50
• Increases value in pre-PayTV windows
SOD • Premium pricing / access• Premium branding• Modest incremental fees
• Structure is in the spirit of traditional Pay TV flat fee model; but provides clear definition for “Pay TV on the internet”
• Potential additional upside for Sony
Concessions • 50 title cap• 12.5% reduction in rate card
2012 -- 2013• Expand Pay 1 window
(market is 18 months)
• Cap on titles and near-term reduction are non-negotiable for Starz
• Pay 1 window is important to Starz but may be negotiable
Terms Comments
4
Revenues for Extension – Fees Per Year (2014-2016) (1)(2)
$40 $40
$120
$184
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Low Slate High Slate
Bonus Payment License Fees
$160
$224
Footnotes:
1) Does not include potential library deal or incremental digital profits.
2) Low slate assumes volumes in-line with last 3 years experience, high slate assumes volumes in-line with slate used in MRP
Annual Revenues in Extension
Comments
• Total dollar value depends on slate
• Low slate compares to a trailing 3 years average of $230MM
–$182.6MM fees
–$47.5MM bonus
5
Starz will Remain a Premium Branded Service
• Starz is bundled with premium services from Cable MSO, Satellite and Telco providers
– Packages with Starz are priced on average roughly 40% above entry-level prices
– Starz brand is generally called-out as one of the main value drivers of the upgraded package
– Premium marketing approach has led to Starz reaching 17MM cable / satellite / fiber households
• The method for making Starz available digitally will be subject to a similar approach
– Packages that include Starz would be above entry-level broadband or subject to an a la carte charge
– Starz brand would be specifically called-out as one of the main value drivers of the upgraded package
– Starz would be made available in no more than 30MM broadband households to ensure premium positioning
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Pricing Starz as a Premium Service
AreaBasic
PackageEst. Current Basic Price
Least Expensive Package
with Starz
Est. Lowest Price with
Starz
Est. Minimum Add-on Cost for Bundles
w/Starz
Premium
Cable (Comcast)
“Enhanced Cable”
$38.98“On Demand
Silver”$55.95 $16.97 44%
Satellite (DirecTV)
“Family Package”
$29.99“Choice Extra”
$34.99 -- $57.99 (3) $5-$28 17%-93%
DSL (Verizon) (1)
“Starter Plan” 1 Mbps
$19.99“Power Plan”
3Mbps$29.99 $10 50%
Cable broadband(1) Confirming $33 Confirming $40 -$45 $7-$12 21%-36%
Websites (on top of broadband)
Lowest Cost 1Mbps
Broadband$19.99
DSL Plus $7.99 ALC
or bundle with $13.99 website
subscription
$27.98 -- $33.98
$7.99-$13.99 40%-70%
Footnotes:1) Structured as 1 tier above the 1MB.2) Average price paid by someone with access to Starz3) Note, $34.99 is for first 12 months only
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Subscribers included in Caps and Rate Card
Total Digital Subscriber Cap Subscribers Subject to Rate Card
Cable
Satellite
IPTV (Fios)
All other digital
delivery subscribers (including
DSL bundle) are subject
to 30MM Cap
Excluded Included
Excluded Included
Cable
Satellite
IPTV (Fios)
DSL
Open internet on a service that
feels like cable
All other digital
delivery (Amazon,
Blockbuster, Hulu)
subscribers are subject to a per-sub
rate card
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Digital Rate Card Proposal
• Starz Proposal:
– $2.0MM per year over the next 3
years for the Netflix deal
– Per sub fee on all “included” subs
– Incremental fees are structured as
follows:
– Cap of $14.6MM per year
Sample Potential Economics
Footnotes:
1) Netflix subs do not count towards rate card until after 3 year settlement.
Starz Digital Proposal Sony Protection
Sub Range (MM)Rate Card
Dollars (MM) Cume
0 10 0.33$ 3.3$ 3.3$
10 15 0.50$ 2.5$ 5.8$
15 20 0.75$ 3.8$ 9.6$
20 25 1.00$ 5.0$ 14.6$
CompanySubs (MM)
Profits ($ in MM)
Verizon (DSL) 7 $0.0
Netflix (1) 6 $2.0
Quest (DSL) 2 $0.0
Blockbuster 4 $1.3
At&T (DSL) 7 $0.0
TiVo 4 $1.3
Total 30 $4.6 (2.1% of $223.9)
[Confirm Subs]
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Potential Response
Item Approach Importance
“Shadow Economics”Revenue share model which is an approximation of the per sub fee rate card proposed by Starz
Low
Grow rate card/caps Expands cap limits Low
Include DSL subsExpand the sub definition to include DSL subs in the rate card calculation so that fees can be collected
Low
Increase Netflix valueRationale is to move likely digital fees closer to 5-10% of traditional license fee deal
Medium
11
Timeline of Current and Proposed Windows
Theatrical Release
Theatrical Release
DVD / VOD Day & Date
DVD / VOD Day & Date
PPV / VOD Standard
PPV / VOD Standard
12 months from theaters (10 months)
Key:Existing (Requested)
8 months from VOD – lets us do early window (3½ months)
6 months from DVD (4½ months)
6 months from PPV (3½ months)
Home TheaterHome Theater
4 weeks 4 weeks
Pay 1Triggers
Pay 1 Window: 15
Mos. + 30d Black Period (18 months)
Pay 1 Window: 15
Mos. + 30d Black Period (18 months)
Early Window/
VOD
Early Window/
VOD
12
Discussion Summary
• Progress: After solid work Sat, Sunday and Monday, we have made a lot of progress towards closing an extension and resolving how Starz will distribute SOD on the Internet
• Extension: Our new deal would go 3 more years -- through 2016 releases. This is a big win, given Paramount doesn't have a deal and HBO is unwilling to take us in (and, they think, legally unable to include us, for antitrust reasons, unless they get rid of another studio)
• Bonus/Fees: Our deal is now above market. We maintained our current bonus ($47.5m) through the existing term and a obtained a new bonus ($40m) for each year of the extension period. No other studio has a bonus. Although the pay market is declining and our ratecard will take a reduction, our compensation in the extension continues to be above market
• SOD - Internet:
– The key elements we needed and got were:
(a) Premium Pricing and (b) Distinctive Starz Branding. This maintains the perception of "premium pay", protecting the network window (and also, to a lesser extent, DVD and digital)
– Nice-to-haves we got were:
(a) a cap on the number Internet users (to maintain premium positioning) and
(b) financial participation in the Netflix deal and potential upside from Internet subscriber growth outside of Netflix
• Digital Wins:
– 72 hour VOD window
– Pricing flexibility for EST during Pay 2 (old floor was $6.95, new floor is $3.50)
– Requested (not agreed yet) carve outs for digital SOD during network window
• Volume: Ours is the last studio deal that was uncapped. Starz agreed to the cap we proposed (50 total, including 25 Columbia titles, 15 SPC and 10 other "Acquisitions/rent-a-system"). Our volume has never approached these caps
• TRO/Litigation Position Preserved: We persuaded Starz to delay the XBox roll out until 12/15. This means we keep the leverage of seeking a TRO until 12/12, when we'd have to file
13
Internet Service Provider Monthly Rates
ISP Dial-UpLowest Tier 2nd Lowest Tier
Basic ISP $6.95Copper.net $9.95ISP.com $8.95Juno $6.95NetZero $9.95PeoplePC Online $10.95Toast.net $9.95Turbo USA $9.95Avg. all Dial-Up ISPs $9.20
AT&T N/ABasic DSL:
$14.99 (768 Kbps)Express DSL:
$25.00 (1.5 Mbps)
AT&T U-Verse N/A
Comcast N/ACurrent Cable Customer:
$19.99 (1.5 Mbps)
Performance with PowerBoost:
$33.00 (12 Mbps)
Time Warner N/ARoad Runner Lite: $25.00 (768 Kbps)
Road Runner Basic: $36.95 (3 Mbps)
Verizon N/AStarter Plan:
$19.99 (1 Mbps)Power Plan:
$29.99 (3 Mbps)
N/A
N/A
U200 Package: $20.00 (1.5 Mbps)
DSL/Cable Internet
N/AN/AN/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14
Consumer Cost Comparison
Subs (Mil) Avg NY LA Philly AustinPalm
Beach Portland Subs (Mil) Avg NY LA Philly AustinPalm
Beach Portland
Direct TV* 20.0 $42 -- -- -- -- -- -- NA -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Echostar* 13.8 $33 -- -- -- -- -- -- NA -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Comcast 24.5 $67 -- $69 $69 $63 $66 -- 14.3 $52 -- $43 $45 $60 -- $58
Time Warner/Road Runner Lite 13.3 $69 $68 $68 -- $71 -- -- 8.4 $25 -- $25 -- -- -- --
Verizon/Fios 1.0 $63 $63 $63 $63 -- -- $63 8.3 $20 -- $20 -- $20 -- --
AT&T**/U-Verse 0.8 $65 -- $65 -- -- -- -- 7.8 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20 $20
** ISP Bundled with Telephone Line
Basic Cable + Starz ISP Broadband"Straight" Average Comparison $56.46 $29.13 $27.33
"Weighted" Average Comparison $54.00 $32.69 $21.31
Basic Cable + Starz (Monthly Rates) ISP Broadband (Monthly Rates)
* Satellite subscription fees based on "family" packages (45 channels) starting at $20; a package with the more customary 150+ channels starts at $53
Price Difference
Markets Markets