attracting and retaining talent by tom stellman 2007
TRANSCRIPT
Attracting & Retaining Talent:
Can Texas Compete?
July 12, 2007
Tom Stellman
TEDC Conference – Amarillo, TX
TIP Strategies, Inc.
TIP is an economic development consulting firm based in Austin, Texas. Our services include:
– Strategic planning– Target sector analysis– Workforce assessment– Site selection– Economic impact analysis– Land use planning
Representative ClientsSuburban• Austin-area
– Round Rock– Georgetown– Cedar Park
• Dallas Metroplex– Rowlett– Denton– Benbrook– Terrell
• Houston area– Conroe– Katy– League City– Pearland– Rosenberg
• Northfield, MN
Metro Areas & Regions• City of Dallas• City of Houston • Envision Central Texas• Southwest Mississippi• Chicago-Milwaukee Corridor• Richmond, VA• Jackson County, IL• Jefferson Parish, LA• San Antonio EDF• State of Texas• State of Vermont• Northern Ireland, UK• The Netherlands
TIP Projects
• facilities & site visits• assessment• benchmarking• touchstone meetings• cluster analysis
• visioning • goal setting• consensus building• priority strategies• priority projects
• specific actions• resources• responsible parties• milestones• budget• metrics• process for updating
discovery opportunity implementation
Theory Into Practice Planning Model
Talent and Quality of Place
Knowledge
Higher Wages
More Jobs
Buildings
2010
2000
1990
1970
1980
evolutionary scale
Evolution of Economic Development Goals
Talent and Place
• Talent – the individuals that possess the skills and values to make organizations effective
• Quality of Place – viewing the assets of your community through the eyes of the talent you wish to attract and retain
US manufacturing vs. services
14.417.8 17.3
58.6
20.2
55.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
(Em
ploym
ent in
millio
ns)
ManufacturingServices
Source: US Bureau Labor Statistics; Economy.com
US mfg: output vs. employment
$4,312
$4,145
$2,793
17,26617,695
14,378
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
(Out
put in
$bil
lions
- cu
rrent
doll
ars)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000(Em
ployment in thousands)Output
Employment
Source: US Bureau Labor Statistics; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; Economy.com
US Employment Forecast, 2006-2016
13%-3%-2%
16%-3%
8%12%
9%25%
28%5%
25%16%
4%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
TOTALNat. Resources & Mining
UtilitiesConstruction
ManufacturingWhl.Trade & Transportation
InformationFinancial Activities
Prof. & Business ServicesHealth Services
Retail tradeLeisure & Hospitality
Other ServicesGovernment
(percent change in jobs)
Source: Economy.com
US Employment Forecast 2006-2016
Share of All New Jobs in US, 2006-2016
28.1%
24.3%18.5%
31.8% Health Services
Prof. & Business Services
Leisure & Hospitality
All Other Sectors Combined
Source: Economy.com
Two-thirds of all new jobs from just three
major sectors.
Global Working Age Population
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database
popu
latio
n ag
e 15
-64
(in m
illio
ns)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GermanyJapanRussia
UK
projection
US Working Age Population
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Database
popu
latio
n ag
e 15
-64
(in m
illio
ns)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
The generation ahead: expect a tight labor market since we won’t be adding workers at the pace with which we are accustomed.
2007: you are here
projection
US Labor Shortage?Since 1990, the US has added more than 1.5 million jobs annually. However, we are nearing a point when the annual net increase in the working age population will fall to about 500,000.
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
2,000,000
2,250,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Projected Net Annual Change in the Working Age Population (18-64)Average Annual Job Creation Since 1990
SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
net c
hg in
pop
ulat
ion
age
18-6
4
Texas Labor ProjectionsSince 1990, Texas has added more than 184,000 jobs annually. That’s about the level of growth our working-age population will experience when the Baby Boomers start retiring. Factor in a labor force participation rate of 2/3, and yes, Houston, we may have a problem.
SOURCES: TIP Strategies; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Projected Net Annual Change in the Working Age Population (18-64)Average Annual Job Creation Since 1990
net c
hg in
pop
ulat
ion
age
18-6
4
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(in m
illion
s)
pre-Boomers (born before 1946)Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964)Generation X (born 1965-1977)Generation Y and beyond (born post-1977)
US Working Age Population by Generation
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, projections based on 2000 Census
popu
latio
n ag
e 18
-64
2011: The Baby Boomers reach retirement age
2030: Gen X reaches retirement age
2018: Gen Y makes up half of the working age population
projection
US Labor Force Participation by Gender
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
women
men
labo
r for
ce p
artic
ipat
ion
rate
(%)
US Bachelor’s Degrees by Gender
SOURCE: National Center for Education Statistics
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
women
men
Bac
helo
r’s d
egre
es c
onfe
rred
projection
0
5
10
15
20
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(in m
illion
s)
pre-Boomers (born before 1946)Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964)Generation X (born 1965-1977)Generation Y and beyond (born post-1977)
Texas Working Age Population by Generation
popu
latio
n ag
e 18
-64
At the surface, the generational pattern in Texas looks (and is) the same as the US. The difference is that the working age population in Texas will grow at a faster pace.
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, projections based on 2000 Census
projection
Texas Contribution to Net Population Growth
SOURCE: Texas State Data Center
6.5% 8.0% 10.0%
34.1%20.3% 12.7% 4.2%
10.3%
11.5%9.5%
5.6%
49.1%60.3% 67.7%
77.6%
12.6%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980s 1990s 2000-2005 2005-2040
Asian & Other Anglo Black Hispanicco
ntrib
utio
n to
net
po
pula
tion
grow
th (%
)
Texas Educational Attainment 2005
SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey 2005
13.2% 9.5% 16.7%
45.0%33.8%
57.6%
65.0%
44.6%53.0%
32.9%18.3% 10.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Asian Anglo Black Hispanic
Bachelor's degree or higherHigh school diploma but less than a 4-year degreeNo high school diploma or GED
% o
f pop
ulat
ion
age
25+
Top "Exporters" (in thousands)
-53
-66
-238
-239
-278
-290
-330
-474
-951
-1,243
-1,500 -1,000 -500 0
Connecticut
Kansas
Ohio
Michigan
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Louisiana
Illinois
California
New York
Top "Importers"
1,222
541
452
378
347
318
167
160
130
125
0 500 1,000 1,500
Florida
Arizona
Texas
Georgia
North Carolina
Nevada
South Carolina
Tennessee
Washington
Virginia
Source: US Census Bureau
"Importers" & "Exporters" of Domestic Migrants, 2000-2006 Top & Bottom Ten States
Net Domestic Migration for All Texas Metro Areas, 2000-2006-50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Dallas-Fort WorthHouston
AustinMcAllen-Edinburg
TylerSherman-Denison
TexarkanaLongview
AmarilloMidland
WacoOdessa
Brownsville-HarlingenLubbockVictoria
San AngeloLaredo
Killeen-TempleAbilene
Corpus ChristiWichita Falls
College Station-BryanBeaumont-Port Arthur
El PasoSource: US Census Bureau
Population Change, 2000-2006 West Texas Metro Areas
7.2%
6.6%
5.2%
4.7%
0.0%
-1.4%
-4.0%
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Midland MSA
Amarillo MSA
Odessa MSA
Lubbock MSA
San Angelo MSA
Abilene MSA
Wichita Falls MSA
(Percent change in population)
Source: US Census Bureau
Net Change in Population from Domestic Migration, 2000-2006 West Texas Metro Areas
1,842
1,623
-2,175
-3,340
-3,770
-7,320
-9,885
-12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000
Amarillo MSA
Midland MSA
Odessa MSA
Lubbock MSA
San Angelo MSA
Abilene MSA
Wichita Falls MSA
Source: US Census Bureau
Components of Population Change in West Texas Metros, 2000-2006 Ranked by Percent Change
Total Change Natural Increase Migration
# % Births Deaths Int’l Domestic
Midland MSA 8,371 7.2% 11,716 -5,731 1,186 1,623
Amarillo MSA 14,993 6.6% 23,226 -12,762 3,515 1,842
Odessa MSA 6,339 5.2% 14,152 -6,679 1,416 -2,175
Lubbock MSA 11,711 4.7% 25,551 -12,719 1,961 -3,340
San Angelo MSA -29 0.0% 10,036 -6,370 434 -3,770
Abilene MSA -2,182 -1.4% 14,775 -9,617 490 -7,320
Wichita Falls MSA -5,996 -4.0% 13,208 -9,195 381 -9,885
Source: US Census Bureau
Growth in China• Low cost competitor? • Yes, but also
competing for:– Investment– Resources– Talent
Foreign National Engineering Degrees (% of graduates)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
TX NY FL CA MA
Masters
PhD
What are Employers Saying?
“Keep your tax incentives and highway intersections. We will go where the highly skilled people are.”
— Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard
“Hot Jobs – Cool Communities”
• Rebecca Ryan of Next Generation Consulting says: “Communities work dog-hard to attract
companies to their location, but that's only half the deal. Today, companies also rely on … community leaders to attract talent.”
• Air and Water Quality • Recycling Rates • Car Pools, Commute
Times • Traffic • Public Parks, Trails, and
Recreation Areas • Sunny Days • Farmers Markets • Natural Foods Stores
“Hot Jobs – Cool Communities”
• Fitness Centers • Vegetarian
Restaurants • Rates of Crime • Rates of Cancer • Heart Disease • Obesity • Smoking • Life Expectancy
• Fruit and Vegetable Consumption
• Work Sick Days • Rates of Depression • High Blood Pressure • Unemployment • Charitable Donations • Cost of living • Poverty
“Hot Jobs – Cool Communities”
• Concentration of Designers, Artists, Authors, Musicians, Actors and similar Professions
• Percentage of Community Under 40
• Population Diversity (ethnic, religious, sexual orientation)
• Number of Bars, Nightclubs and similar per capita
• Number of Art Galleries, Museums, and similar per capita
The War for Talent
*by Ed Michaels, Helen Handfield-Jones, & Beth AxelrodHarvard Business School Press - 2001
The Old Reality The New RealityPeople need companies Companies need people
Machines, capital, and geography are the competitive advantage
Talented people are the competitive advantage
Better talent makes some difference
Better talent makes a huge difference
Jobs are scarce Talented people are scarce
Employees are loyal and jobs are secure
People are mobile and their commitment is short term
People accept the standard package they are offered
People demand much more
Generations
• Veterans (aka Radioers) - Born 1922 to 1945 - 75 million
• Boomers – Born 1946 to 1964 – 80 million
• Generation X – Born 1965 to 1980 – 46 million
• Generation Y – Born after 1980 – 76 million
Source: Mary Alice Burkhart - Austin Peay State University
Millennials
• Born after 1991• Not yet in the workforce, but we need
to anticipate their relationship with work
Source: Mary Alice Burkhart - Austin Peay State University
The Veterans are . . .
• 75 million workers age 60+• Defining events – Great Depression, WWII, Korea,
Radio Age, rise of labor unions • Frugal and resourceful• Loyal to the company• Respectful of order, rules and authority• Value lessons from the past• Believe in the virtue of hard work, patience and thrift• Require tangible recognition of achievement
Source: Mary Alice Burkhart - Austin Peay State University
Baby Boomers are . . .
• 80 million workers ages 42 – 60• Defining Events – Television, suburbia, Woodstock,
Viet Nam, civil rights movement, the Cold War• Optimistic and team oriented• Socially and intellectually involved• Take pride in working long hours to get ahead• Carefully plan and monitor projects to completion• Enjoy receiving public recognition and other rewards
for their accomplishmentSource: Mary Alice Burkhart - Austin Peay State University
Generation Xers are . . .
• 46 million workers ages 26 to 41• Defining Events – Computers, MTV, Watergate, energy
crisis, fall of Berlin Wall, social change• Trust authority only if accompanied by competence • Focused on developing skills to enhance marketability• Self-reliant and independent• Confident in their technology based skills • Work smarter, not harder• Job motivation – challenging and fun
Source: Mary Alice Burkhart - Austin Peay State University
Generation Y is . . . • 76 million workers under age 26 • Defining events – Advanced technology, Oklahoma City
bombing, school violence, multiculturalism, 9/11• Access and process information faster• Extensive users of technology at home and at work • Group oriented problem-solvers• Seek opportunities to explore new paths• Seek flexibility and freedom on the job• Optimistic, sociable and achievement-oriented“Generations at Work: Managing the Clash of Veterans, Boomers, Xers and Nexters in your Workplace” by R. Zemke, C. Raines and B. Filipczak
• Return to Roots is a campaign aimed at the estimated 15,000 alumni who have graduated from Southwest Virginia’s high schools in the last 20 years and may have moved away from the region.
• Return to Roots is an information portal highlighting the exciting job opportunities that exist today in Virginia’s Great Southwest region.
Greater Killeen AreaOPERATION ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
A BLUEPRINT FOR ADVANCING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES IN THE FORT HOOD REGION
Veterans Inventory
1. How many years of service do you possess?
2 or less 11 to 15 3 to 5 16 to 19
6 to 10 20+ 2. What is your reason for leaving the military?
Retirement ETS/Chapter 3. Are you planning to stay in the region (within 30 miles of Fort Hood) after your service ends?
Yes No Don’t know 4. Would you be willing to remain in the region if adequate employment were available?
Yes No Don’t know 5. What is your MOS Code? _________ 6. What is your highest level of education completed?
High School/GED Associates Degree Masters Degree Some College Bachelors Degree Ph.D.
7. Please indicate any technical/professional skills you possess?
General Computer Finance Medical Advanced Computer Administrative Communications
Management Construction Electronics Mechanical Transportation/Logistics Law Enforcement
8. What type of post-military employment do YOU desire?
Aviation Construction Maintenance/Repair Business/Finance Education Manufacturing
Computer/Software Healthcare Office/Administrative Communications Law Enforcement Transportation/Logistics
9. If married, what type of employment does your SPOUSE desire?
Aviation Construction Maintenance/Repair Business/Finance Education Manufacturing
Computer/Software Healthcare Office/Administrative Communications Law Enforcement Transportation/Logistics
10. Improvements in which other areas would positively affect your decision to remain in the region?
Higher Education Offerings Housing Child Care Healthcare
Retail/Shopping Entertainment/Recreation Other __________________________
SURVEY OF POST-MILITARY SERVICE INTENT
43% 41%
16%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Yes No Don't Know
All Respondents
Are you planning to stay in the region (within 30 miles of Fort Hood) after your service ends?
64%
23%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Yes No Don't Know
All Respondents
Would you be willing to remain in the region if adequate employment were available?
3%7%
8%
4%
11%
4%
13%
3%
9%
18%
5%
15%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
All Respondents
General Computer
Advanced Computer
Management
Mechanical
Finance
Administrative
Construction
Transportation/Logistics
Medical
Communications
Electronics
Law Enforcement
Please indicate any technical/professional skills you possess?
Quality of Place Factors
Rio Grande Valley:Generational Research Project
• Goal: To better understand how different generations relate to work and place and to each other in order to make better decisions about human resource management, education and training, and other initiatives designed to prepare, retain and attract talent.
• Three components:– National and regional data– Pilot survey and focus group meetings– Findings and recommendations
Findings from Pilot Survey• Relationship with work:
– Baby boomers were more interested in benefits– Generation X was more interested in career opportunities
and work schedule flexibility• Relationship with place:
– Baby boomers were more interested cost of living and access to higher education
– Generation X was more interested in access to employment opportunities and entertainment options
Retiree Impact• Center for Economic Development (CED) at Jacksonville
State Univ. reports that retirees:– control 77% of the nation’s assets – maintain 80% of savings account balances– own 68% of all money market accounts– buy 48% of new automobiles
• According to one estimate, the economic impact of one relocating retiree on a community is equal to 3.7 factory workers.
Retiree Trends & Attitudes• Working retirement is more common.
– Retirement is more of a transition than a sudden event.• Active in community
– Life experience and connections make them important resource.
• Aging in place – Only one in five will relocate. Most prefer to stay near
family, friends, & familiar places.• Technology use
– AOL-sponsored study found that almost half of people age 55+ have been on-line for 4 years
Yes, but we have much work ahead…1. Anticipate a tight labor force in the coming
years2. Adapt to (and learn from) the needs of Gen Y3. Recognize that women may be our best
underutilized human resource in the competitive years ahead
4. Prepare new generations to enter the workforce with solid and complete educations
Can Texas Compete?
7000 N. MoPac, Ste. 305Austin, TX 78731
512.343.9113 tel512.343.9190 fax
www.TIPstrategies.com
Thank you
TIP Strategies, Inc.<<Theory Into Practice>>