audi bmw and mercedes-benz vying for sales supremacy
DESCRIPTION
Comparative analysisTRANSCRIPT
AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
March 2012
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 3 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Disclaimer
Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies' opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-
Benz are all vying to dominate
the premium car market.
Success hinges on the four key
markets of China, Germany, the
UK and the US, which account
for more than 60% of the trio’s
combined sales. The close
relationship between affluent
households and the
performance of these three
leading premium players
suggests the outlook is good for
future sales volumes.
Scope
INTRODUCTION
This report compares the demand for passenger cars from the Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz premium brands, and considers potential future sales.
All data refers to passenger cars. For consistency, sales of the Mercedes-Benz
Vans division are excluded as neither Audi nor BMW offer commercial
vehicles.
2011
Global Passenger Car Sales
1.30m units
(+19.2%)
1.38m units
(+12.8%)
1.28m units
(+8.6%)
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 4 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Key findings
INTRODUCTION
4 million sales in 2011 Combined. the leading premium automotive brands, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-
Benz, bounced back from recession in 2010 and delivered a record of almost 4
million units in 2011
4 key markets – 60% of
sales
Sales in the 4 key markets - China, Germany, the UK and the US – accounted for
60% of the combined sales volume of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz in 2011
Audi overtakes
Mercedes
Audi increased sales in all four key markets more than BMW and Mercedes, and
outsold the Mercedes-Benz Cars division for the first time ever in 2011
UK out of the medals The UK has been relegated to being the 4th largest market for Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz passenger cars since 2010. That said, the three brands posted
10% sales growth in the UK in 2011 - despite the hike in VAT from 17.5% to 20%
China going for gold Germany remained the largest market for the premium German trio combined in
2011, but China became Audi's largest market in 2011 and will be the #1 sales
country for the BMW brand and Mercedes-Benz Cars division by 2014 at the latest
Premium brands,
premium incomes
Combined car sales of the Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz brands equate to at
least 10% of the number of households with an annual disposable income over
US$100,000 in China, Germany and the UK but just 2% in the US
1 million sales in the US The US market for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz cars (and SUVs) will easily
exceed 1 million units by 2020
Global sales in 2020 Based on the rise in wealthy households globally, the 3 German premium brands
will sell over 5 million units in 2015 and over 8 million units in 2020, but with an
upside scenario of over 11 million units in 2020
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 6 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The world's leading premium car brands (Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz) naturally depend on affluent
households for their sales. In fact, global demand most closely follows the growth pattern of households
with an annual disposable income (ADI) of over US$200,000 in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms.
Audi, BMW and Mercedes sales suffered as a result of the financial crisis, and clearly benefited far less
than mainstream players from industry stimulus packages around the world. However, demand recovered
to exceed pre-crisis levels in 2010, and a new record of nearly 4 million units delivered was seen in 2011.
Economic fragility, weak consumer confidence and tighter lending conditions continue to dampen new car
sales, especially in Europe, but the positive medium- and long-term outlook for wealthy households
suggests that there is potential for strong sales of Germany's leading premium brands.
The historic link
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
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World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales, and Households by Income 2002-2011
Audi, BMW, M-B sales
ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000
ADI> US$150,000
ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 7 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Deliveries of passenger cars bearing Audi, BMW or Mercedes badges equated to 14.5% of the number of
homes with an ADI greater than US$200K in 2011. This was a significant rise on 2009, when the sales ratio
dipped to just 12.5%, due to the economic turmoil and, moreover, was almost back to the pre-crisis ratio of
over 15%.
Globally, households with an ADI of over US$200K are forecast to number 37 million and 56 million in 2015
and 2020, respectively.
Based upon the 14.5% ratio achieved in 2011, the global market for the leading German premium brands
would be 5.4 million units in 2015 and 8.2 million in 2020.
However, sales could be higher if economic stability translates into a return of pre-crisis ratios in the US
and key European markets.
The outlook
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World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Car Sales, 2005-2011, and Affluent Households 2005-2020
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 9 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
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) World: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales
2002-2011
Audi BMW Mercedes-Benz
The BMW brand has outsold the Mercedes-Benz Cars division since 2005, assisted by the addition of the
1-Series to its portfolio in 2004. Both brands suffered similar declines during the financial crisis, although
the launch of the new E-Class range helped Mercedes recover quicker in 2010. BMW fought back in 2011
though, buoyed by demand for the replacements of the 5-Series and X3 models.
Nevertheless, Audi continues to be the rising star, due largely to its stronger presence in China and lesser
exposure to the slow US market than its rivals. Consequently, Audi increased its sales in 2008 and global
demand only fell by 5.4% in 2009.
Moreover, deliveries for
Audi overtook the
Mercedes-Benz Cars
division for the first time
ever in 2011, aided not
only by higher volume
growth in China than
Mercedes but also at
home in Germany, as a
result of strong demand
for the Q5 SUV and the
first full year of sales of
the A1 small car.
Global sales performance
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 10 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Audi sales in China have exceeded both the UK and the US since 2007, and it became
Audi's biggest market – ahead of Germany – in 2011. Phenomenal growth in China is
thus underpinning the ongoing global march of the brand.
Audi deliveries to the UK and the US were at their highest ever levels in 2011, and sales
in Germany are essentially back to pre-crisis levels – unlike the total car market in the
country.
The US market still
remains Audi's Achilles'
heel (both BMW and
Mercedes sell twice as
many cars there) but
the brand only lost
10,000 units of sales
between 2007 and
2009, and has enjoyed
double-digit growth
since, returning sales
back above UK levels
for the first time since
2006.
Audi: Sales in key markets
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
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Audi: Sales in China, Germany, UK and US 2005-2011
China Germany UK US
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 11 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
As a result of the dramatic crisis-induced decline in demand in the US, Germany has
returned to being the largest market for the BMW brand since 2008.
Despite the UK recovering to pre-crisis levels in 2011, because of healthy growth in
business and fleet sales, China relegated this market to being BMW's fourth largest in
2010 (even though the scrappage incentive was still in effect).
Demand for premium
cars continues to rise in
both the US and
Germany in 2012, and
the sales boom in
China also shows no
sign of abating. China is
therefore vying to
become the largest
market for the BMW
brand – some years
earlier than expected
prior to the global
recession.
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
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BMW Brand: Sales in China, Germany, UK and US 2005-2011
China Germany UK US
BMW: Sales in key markets
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 12 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Unlike BMW and Audi, demand for Mercedes-Benz brand cars in Germany was still
some 20% off the pre-crisis pace in 2011. Nevertheless, Germany remains the largest
market for the company.
However, the persistent crisis in the Euro-zone continues to trouble, Germany and the
short-term outlook for premium vehicle demand is therefore far healthier in the US and
China. In fact, all three markets are converging, with similar levels of demand for
Mercedes-Benz cars in 2012.
As is already the case for
Audi and will soon be for
BMW, China is destined to
be the largest market for
Mercedes-Benz cars – in
2013, or 2014 at the
latest.
As with BMW, China
relegated the UK market
to fourth place in the
Mercedes rankings in
2010.
Mercedes-Benz: Sales in key markets
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
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Mercedes-Benz Cars Division: Sales in China, Germany, UK and US 2005-2011
China Germany UK US
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 14 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
China, Germany, the US and the UK are the four largest markets for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
Despite the contraction of the US, UK and German premium car markets in 2009, the extraordinary growth
in China means that demand for the three German premium car brands fared better in these four markets
than in the rest of the world.
Skyrocketing premium car sales in China in 2010 and 2011, along with recovery in Germany, the US and
the UK, lifted the share of global sales for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz accounted for by these four
markets to over 60% in 2011. They are therefore critical battlegrounds for these brands.
Four markets now account for 60%+ of Audi, BMW and M-B sales
FOUR MARKETS
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Passenger Car Sales of the Three German Brands in the Four Key Markets and the Rest of the World and Percentage Share of Global Sales 2005-2011
Four Key Markets Rest of World Share of Global Sales
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 15 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Despite deliveries remaining below pre-crisis levels, Germany remains the largest market for the combined
sales of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz.
However, demand in China overtook the UK in 2009 and the US in 2010, and is challenging Germany for
the top spot.
Combined deliveries of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz brand cars in China fell short of Germany by just
32,000 units in 2011, and the economic uncertainty in the Euro-zone means it is almost certain that China
will be the largest premium car market, from 2012 – three years after it became the world's largest vehicle
market overall.
Four key markets in comparison
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Four Markets: Passenger Car Sales of the Three German Premium Brands 2005-2011
China Germany UK US
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 16 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Audi remained the leading premium car brand in China in 2011. With 313,000 deliveries, Audi sold a third
more cars than BMW in 2011 and almost 50% more than Mercedes-Benz.
To put this into historical perspective, however, Audi car sales in China were more than double those of
BMW and treble those of Mercedes-Benz as recently as 2007. Audi demand has trebled since, but BMW
deliveries have more than quadrupled, while Mercedes has multiplied its sales almost seven-fold over the
same period. In fact, Mercedes-Benz sales were just 2,000 units below those of BMW in China in 2010
(boosted by the introduction of the new E-Class range) but trailed by 6,000 units in 2011 as BMW launched
its LWB version of the new 5-Series, which was specifically designed for the Chinese market.
China: German premium brand passenger car sales
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China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
Audi BMW Mercedes-Benz
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 17 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Demand for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz cars has ballooned in China in recent years, with the 3
German brands selling over five times more cars in 2011 than in 2006.
Combined sales of the Audi, BMW and Mercedes marques equated to just 11% of Chinese households
with an annual disposable income in excess of US$200,000 in 2006, but growth in sales significantly
outpaced the growth in this income bracket between 2006 and 2011.
Deliveries of the three premium German marques in 2011 equated to 14% of the households with an ADI
over US$100,000 and even 9% of those with an ADI over US$75,000.
China: German premium car sales outpace household growth
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China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2011
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$75,000 ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 18 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Despite the cooling economy, the ongoing emergence of affluent middle-class households in China,
especially in second and third tier cities, bodes well for Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales.
Even if demand continues to equate to the same proportion of the number of households with an
ADI>US$100,000 as in 2011, this suggests that the German premium marques will deliver 1.3 million units
in 2015 and 2.8 million in 2020.
However, sales are trending towards equalling 10% of the number of homes with an annual disposable
income of just US$75,000. At this level, a sales volume of 3.4 million units would be achieved in 2020.
The proposed ban on
Chinese government
officials buying
foreign cars would
naturally have a
detrimental impact on
sales, especially for
Audi, but new model
activity will inevitably
compensate for this,
and the removal of
the stigma of being
the cars of officialdom
might even benefit
demand.
China: Emergence of affluent households supports three Germans
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China: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2020
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$75,000 ADI> US$100,000
ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 19 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The recovery of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz car sales in their home market was negligible in 2010 but
demand increased by 6% in 2011.
However, growth was still lower than for the total passenger car market, which expanded by 9%, and the
addition of the A1 small car to Audi's portfolio and the new versions of the BMW 5-Series and X3 boosted
the market more than any major structural improvement. Mercedes-Benz sales actually declined slightly in
2011, despite the launch of the new C-Class Coupe, CLS, SLK and the revised C-Class.
German premium car sales had already suffered as a result of the increase in VAT from 16% to 19% in
2007, and the financial crisis meant that demand was down 13% from a peak in 2006 to a trough of 2009.
The premium brands clearly did not benefit from the scrappage incentive scheme.
Germany: German premium brand passenger car sales
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Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
Audi BMW Mercedes-Benz
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Despite the weakness of
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-
Benz passenger car sales
in 2011 by historical
standards, demand still
equated to 20% of the
number of German
households with an annual
disposable income in
excess of US$100,000.
Moreover, the growth in
demand in 2010 and 2011
is again tracking the
development of affluent
households, as it did until
the VAT rise in 2007.
Nevertheless, the 1:5 ratio
of sales of Audi, BMW and
Mercedes-Benz cars to
households with ADIs over
US$100K is far short of the
1:3 ratio achieved in 2005.
Germany: Sales of the three Germans to 1-in-5 affluent households
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Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2011
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000ADI> US$200,000
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While German consumers on the whole have maintained a degree of caution in terms of purchasing and
borrowing, there has been something of a return to pre-crisis habits. More consumers have been willing to
spend money on bigger ticket purchases, such as large household appliances, holidays and home
improvements.
This willingness to spend and the steady rise in affluent households means that even if demand for the
dominant premium players' products equates to one in five homes with an ADI>US$100,000, as in 2011,
Audi, BMW and Mercedes will sell 1 million cars at home in 2015 and 1.5 million in 2020.
On the upside, if the demand to households ratio returns to the 2007 level (the year of the VAT rise), of
27%, sales volume will exceed 2 million units in 2020.
Germany: Affluence and the end of thrift support steady growth
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Germany: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2020
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000 ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 22 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The UK passenger car market declined by 4% overall in 2011, as the scrappage scheme ended and VAT
was increased from 17.5% to 20%. However, combined sales of the three leading German premium brands
increased by 10% – outpacing the 5% growth in fleet sales and setting an all-time record of 312,000 Audi,
BMW and Mercedes-Benz registrations.
At brand level, Audi was the clear star performer, increasing sales by 14% and smashing its previous
record set in 2008 in the process – buoyed in particular by demand for the new A1.
BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales increased by 7% and 9%, respectively, in 2011 – bolstered by new
versions of the BMW 5-Series and X3, and the Mercedes CLS, SLK and C-Class, as well as the addition of
the C-Class Coupe.
UK: German premium brand passenger car sales
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UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011
Audi BMW Mercedes-Benz
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In 2011, registrations of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz passenger cars again followed the development
pattern of Britain's affluent homes, as they have done consistently, except in 2008.
UK sales of the three premium market leaders approached 13% of the number of households with an
annual disposable income in excess of US$100,000 in 2011. This percentage is a recovery from the
weakness of 2009 and 2010, and actually slightly higher than the proportion in 2008, when the financial
crisis unfolded.
UK: German premium brand sales track US$100K households
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UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2011
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000 ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 24 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The effects of the VAT increase are fading in the UK, and consumer confidence is rising as positive
economic data and lower inflation improve expectations of the future economic situation.
However, consumer confidence levels remain well below pre-crisis levels, negatively impacting consumers'
willingness to spend.
Nevertheless, even if demand for the German premium brands equates to 13% of the number of homes
with an ADI over US$100,000, as it did in 2011, Audi, BMW and Mercedes are on track to sell 400,000 cars
in 2015 and over half a million in 2020.
If the demand to households ratio returns to average pre-crisis levels, sales volume will exceed 600,000
units in 2020.
UK: Consumer confidence remains a sticking point
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UK: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales and Households by Income 2005-2020
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000 ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000 ADI> US$200,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 25 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
With 14% growth in 2011, Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz autos sales (passenger cars and SUVs, which
are registered as light trucks in the US) outpaced the total market's recovery. As in Germany though, sales
remained stubbornly below the 2007 peak.
BMW managed to fend off a strong challenge from Mercedes-Benz in 2011 and both brands have sales
double those of Audi.
However, as in China, Germany and the UK, Audi enjoyed the highest percentage growth of all three
brands in 2011. Audi is seeking to replicate the recent successes of its Volkswagen sibling by offering
products tailored to US tastes, such as a sedan version of the A3, which is scheduled for launch in 2014.
US: German premium brand autos sales
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US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales 2005-2011
Audi BMW Mercedes-Benz
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The penetration of Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz is understandably weak in the US due to strong
competition from both domestic upmarket players, such as Cadillac and Lincoln, as well as from the
Japanese premium brands Acura, Infiniti and Lexus.
Nevertheless, demand still tracks the development of wealthy US homes, although sales of the three
German marques typically equate to only 2% of the number of households with an ADI of over US$100,000
(compared to 13-14% in the UK and China and 20% in Germany in 2011).
US: Weak penetration but consistent development
FOUR MARKETS
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Au
tos s
ale
s (
mill
ion
)
Mill
ion
ho
use
ho
lds
US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales and Households by Income 2005-2011
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000 ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000
ADI> US$200,000 ADI> US$250,000 ADI> US$300,000
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 27 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The widespread belt-tightening began to abate in 2011 as a slight increase in employment brought cheer to
many US citizens. However, lenders remain cautious in issuing loans for home, auto and other purchases,
although the situation is improving.
This, and the stable outlook for growth in the number of affluent US homes suggests that even if the ratio of
the three German premium brands' sales to households over US$100,000 is maintained, Audi, BMW and
Mercedes will sell more than 700,000 autos in 2015 and over 900,000 in 2020.
If the demand to households ratio returns to pre-crisis level, the leading German premium brands will easily
top sales of 1 million units in 2020.
US: Less belt-tightening, more credit
FOUR MARKETS
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Au
tos sa
les (
mill
ion
)
Mill
ion
ho
use
ho
lds
US: Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Autos Sales and Households by Income 2005-2020
Audi, BMW, M-B sales ADI> US$100,000 ADI> US$125,000 ADI> US$150,000
ADI> US$200,000 ADI> US$250,000 ADI> US$300,000
INTRODUCTION
PREMIUM BRANDS, PREMIUM INCOMES
THREE GERMAN BRANDS
FOUR MARKETS
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 29 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
The ratio of sales of the premium German brands to the number of households with an ADI over
US$100,000 naturally varies by market.
Considering the outlook for the number of these households and by simply applying the (historically weak,
except in China) percentage ratio of 2011, provides a cautious outlook by market.
Even in this scenario, China is set to become the largest single market for the 3 German premium brands
under review in 2012 and to be nearly twice the size of Germany in 2020.
Global sales of over 5 million units are implied in 2015, rising to over 8 million units in 2020.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Pa
sse
ng
er
ca
r sa
les (
mill
ion
)
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011, 2015 and 2020
Rest of the World
US
UK
Germany
China
Market outlook: Base case
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 30 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Applying the healthier pre-crisis percentage ratios of premium car sales by market to the outlook for
households provides a more bullish view.
As premium car sales in China continue to outpace the growth in the number of households over all
disposable income levels, the bullish outlook here assumes that this trend will continue, and equates
premium car sales to 10% of households that are forecast to have an ADI in excess of US$75,000 in 2015
and 2020.
In this scenario, global sales of almost 7 million units are implied in 2015 and 11 million units in 2020.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Pa
sse
ng
er
ca
r sa
les (
mill
ion
)
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011, 2015 and 2020
Rest of the World
US
UK
Germany
China
Market outlook: Upside scenario
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 31 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Regardless of new model activity, Audi is expected to pull further ahead of the Mercedes-Benz Cars
division in the coming years, as a result of the phenomenal growth potential in China.
However, Audi still trailed the BMW brand by 80,000 units in 2011 and, unless it can gain share through
new model activity, it is expected to lag BMW through 2015 in our cautious base case as BMW stands to
benefit more than Audi from growth in the US and the rest of the world (ie outside the four key markets
under review).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Pa
sse
ng
er
ca
r sa
les (
mill
ion
)
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011, 2015 and 2020
Mercedes-Benz
BMW
Audi
Brand outlook: Base case
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 32 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
In our bullish scenario, which is largely led by a more optimistic outlook for premium car sales in China,
BMW is still forecast to sell more cars globally than Audi in 2015.
However, the gap between Audi and BMW global sales is set to narrow to less than 50,000 units in 2015,
with Audi set to deliver 2.33 million units compared to 2.37 million for the BMW brand.
However, these scenarios assume a similar competitive situation and all three brands, are naturally looking
to extend their respective portfolios.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Pa
sse
ng
er
ca
r sa
les (
mill
ion
)
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz Passenger Car Sales 2005-2011, 2015 and 2020
Mercedes-Benz
BMW
Audi
Brand outlook: Upside scenario
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 33 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Deliveries of the Mercedes-
Benz Cars division trailed Audi
for the first time ever in 2011.
This was essentially because
Audi particularly benefited from
the boom in demand for
premium cars in China, and the
addition of the A1 small car.
However, the comprehensively
redesigned A-Class family will
inevitably boost Mercedes-
Benz's sales from 2012.
Audi's strong position in China
stands the brand in good stead,
but this alone will not be enough
to surpass BMW brand sales
globally by 2015, especially
given Audi's weaker presence in
the US.
However, the addition of the 5-
door variant of the A1 and a
sedan derivative of the next
generation A3 could yet help to
push Audi sales ahead of BMW.
BMW has been the leading
premium car brand since 2005,
but will face stiffer competition
from Audi as Chinese demand
continues to boom. However,
BMW will benefit more from any
recovery in the US.
Even if Audi does manage to
overtake BMW, the comparison
is skewed as only Audi offers
small cars, for which BMW
utilises the Mini brand.
Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz sales: The upshot
OUTLOOK REVIEW
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 34 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
Definitions of industry-specific terminology/abbreviations used in this report:
LWB – Long Wheelbase: Refers to extended versions of passenger cars. These are typically favoured by
Chinese consumers, and LWB versions of European models are therefore commonly developed for the
Chinese market.
SUV – Sports Utility Vehicle: Refers to the Audi Q5 and Q7, BMW X1, X3 and X5, Mercedes-Benz GLK, M
and GL model ranges. Sports Utility Vehicles are not registered as passenger cars in the US, but as light
trucks. However, they have been included here for the sake of consistent comparison.
Briefing definitions
REPORT DEFINITIONS
© Euromonitor International PASSPORT 35 AUTOMOTIVE: AUDI, BMW AND MERCEDES-BENZ: VYING FOR SALES SUPREMACY
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