8/9/2019 AUG-02_Mizuho _Monthly Outlook for EUR_USD

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Mizuho Corporate Bank

Technical Analysis 02 August 2010http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/

Monthly Outlook for EUREUR=EBS, Last Quote [Candle] Monthly

15Jun00 - 16Dec10

Jul00 Jan01 Jul Jan02 Jul Jan03 Jul Jan04 Jul Jan05 Jul Jan06 Jul Jan07 Jul Jan08 Jul Jan09 Jul Jan10 Jul

Pr

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

38.2

50.0

61.8

38.2

50.0

61.8

A

B

C'doji'

EUR=EBS , Last Quote, Candle

31Aug10 1.3069 1.3090 1.3054 1.3066

Comment: This years decline has been longer and taken the Euro far lower than we had imagined (havingonly allowed for a correction down to the 1.3700/1.3500 area). After Junes doji around 1.2140, the mid-pointbetween its all-time low at 0.8228 and high at 1.6040, Julys rally can be seen as a sort of pincer movement toMays big drop. The Euro has already retraced 38% of the decline of the last seven months, adding weight to ourview that the move lower was overdone and some sort of massive extension. Over the summer we expect it to rallyto 1.3500/1.3700, undoing yet more of the massive correction lower that started in 2008, which takes the shape of ahuge A, B, C-type move. The very long term trend remains bullish.

A monthly close clearly below 1.1800 would force us to review.

Chart Levels:Support Resistance Direction of Trade

1.2850 1.3125*

1.2730 1.3385

1.2625 1.3500*

1.2500/1.2450* 1.3700

1.2330/1.2300** 1.3800*

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation orwarranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been preparedsolely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any tradingstrategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.

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