8/9/2019 AUG-09 Mizuho Weekly Technical Commentary EUR USD JPY

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The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation orwarranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been preparedsolely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any tradingstrategy.

Charts provided by Reuters.

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Weekly Technical Commentary 09 August 2010

Links:http://www.mizuho-sc.com/ Bloomberg Page:MIZH Website:http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/

USD/JPYChart Levels: Support 85.00...84.00..83.00..82.00. Resistance 86.00..87.00..87.75..88.15.

This week This monthJPY=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly 11Oct09 - 12Feb11

Nov09 Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb

Pr

84.5

85

85.5

86

86.5

87

87.5

88

88.5

89

89.5

90

90.5

91

91.5

92

92.5

93

93.5

94

94.5

95

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, Candle

15Aug10 85.40 85.75 85.31 85.62

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, TenkanSen 9

15Aug10 88.57

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, Kijun Sen 26

15Aug10 90.01

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, SenkouSpan(a) 52

06Feb11 89.29

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, SenkouSpan(b) 52

06Feb11 90.06

JPY=EBS, Last Quote, Chikou Span 26

21Feb10 85.62

A low at 85.02 on Friday and the usualrumblings from the authorities. We feel theirpotential attempts at holding back the tide ofgeneralised US dollar selling will be eitherineffective and/or badly conceived. They alsorisk being singled out as currency manipulatorswere they to try and keep it above the record

low of 79.75. When this pair last traded here in1995 it was well over two standard deviationsbelow the mean at that time, clearly anextreme. The mean regression today lies at87.00 and one standard deviation below herelies at 73.50. A possibility so far off consensusopinion (which predicts 97.00 in 12 monthstime) that none of the 60 polled by Reuterswere anywhere even close.

EUR/USD Chart Levels: Support1.3050..1.2855..1.2730..1.2565 . Resistance1.3365..1.3420..1.3555..1.3700.

This week This monthEUR=EBS, Last Quote [Candle], Last Quote [Ichimoku 9, 26, 52, 26] Weekly03Sep09 - 18Feb11

Oct09 Nov Dec Jan10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan11 Feb

Pr

1.2

1.22

1.24

1.26

1.28

1.3

1.32

1.34

1.36

1.38

1.4

1.42

1.44

1.46

1.48

1.5

38.2

50.0

61.8

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, Candle

15Aug10 1.3297 1.3297 1.3274 1.3283

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, Tenkan Sen 9

15Aug10 1.2722

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, KijunSen 26

15Aug10 1.2848

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, Senkou Span(a) 52

06Feb111.2785

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, Senkou Span(b) 52

06Feb111.3511

EUR=EBS, Last Quote, Chikou Span 26

21Feb101.3283

A weekly close well above Fibonacci 38%retracement resistance and consensus opinion isstill very much that the US dollar should getstronger because American economic recoverywill start imminently. Oh dear, now we shall bewatching for 9 and 26-week moving averages tocross to bullish setting up for a break throughthe very thin weekly Ichimoku cloud mid-September. If not this week then this month wefavour another nudge higher to the 50%retracement level and the point we were at late

April before the slide. Price action on the waydown from there is seen as an extension whichhas been understandably reversed. Note thatone-month at-the-money implied volatilityremains at its long term mean at 10.40%.

Produced by London Branch - Nicole Elliott +44-20-7786-2509 (email: Nicole.Elliott@mhcb.co.uk)

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