august 2004 - wfsf

A R T I C L E

Macrohistory and City Futures

Phillip DaffaraUniversity of the Sunshine Coast Australia

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Introduction

How do cities, impacted by the current context oftumultuous upheaval, manage the change process? Thetraditional tools of strategic and urban planning seemblunt in the face of the combined challenges of popula-tion growth or movement from rural to urban areas, thecost of infrastructure, pollution, and meeting basicneeds for water, food, housing and energy. Are theredeeper patterns or synergies that may be used to makewiser decisions about creating better urban futures?

This piece explores these synergies within the city,examining the macrohistorical models of thirteenthinkers and applying them to the city as a cultural unit.The twelve perspectives they developed were chosenfor their diversity and for the contribution they make tothe field of cultural change. They are AugustinusAurelius, Nikolai Kardashev and Freeman Dyson, PierreTeilhard de Chardin, Karl Marx, Adam Smith, RianeEisler, Pitirim Sorokin, Prabhat Rainjan Sarkar, Ibn

Khaldun, Arnold Toynbee, Oswald Spengler, and JamesLovelock.

The first task is to identify links between the keythemes of macrohistorian X and macrohistorian Y.What are the commonalities amongst the differentmacrohistorical perspectives about the city? Within thetwelve models, three grand patterns can be discerned -linear, cyclic, and spiral macro-histories. Linear modelsof historical processes depict critical changes as irre-versible and evolution as progressive. There is a distinctstarting point, and an undeviating path forward. Cyclicalmodels assert that history follows a rise and fall, orexpansion and contraction, pattern; there is repetitionof particular patterns of events. Spiral models suggestthat history folds back on itself: there is progress insome areas and cycles in others. (Inayatullah 2002: 172)In this spiral conception, historical processes are bothlinear and cyclical, just as light exhibits both particle andwave properties through different frameworks or exper-iments.

Journal of Futures Studies, August 2004, 9(1): 13 - 30

Abstract

Where our cities are headed is a question being investigated globally by many stakeholders of our urbanfutures. This piece examines the possible, probable and plausible futures of the city, and what these may looklike. The method used to extrapolate these futures is macrohistorical analysis. Positioning the current state of ourglobalised cities within different models of cultural/historical change gives us the grand patterns for the future ofthe city. The conclusion shows the ways in which the city is a tangible cultural product of civilisation and howthe city can be positively used as a catalyst towards the development a planetary human civilisation.

Journal of Futures Studies

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Figure 1: Holarchy of Habitation

The city will be used as the cultural unit ofanalysis for civilisation. This means that the cityas a holon (Koestler 1967), or basic unit oforganization in biological and social systems,cannot exist without civilisation but civilisationcan exist without the city. Figure 1 depicts thisrelationship. First, each macrohistorian will bepresented with their model and the model'simplications for the city described. From thiscontext mapping, I then create a discoursebetween the various models, in search of com-monalities, and six focus areas or dimensions ofthe city are identified. How these dimensionsinteract with each other within the city createscultural synergies or contradictions. I concludethat a multi-dimensional approach is the onlyeffective way to develop policies for urbantransformation.

Linear ModelsAugustinus Aurelius

Much of western Christian theology (theo-ry of knowledge and reality) has been influ-enced by the metaphysics of Augustine. (TheCity of God, a compilation of 22 books pub-lished between A.D. 412 - 427) His interpreta-tions of platonic philosophy shaped medievalwestern cosmology and the work of ThomasAquinas. Reality for Augustine has three planesof being: body, soul and God; and three cate-gories of things: matter, living entities and con-scious living beings capable of knowledge.Humanity began at the moment of Adam andEve's deceiving (failure) by the serpent in theGarden of Eden. Henceforward, humans have

existed as corruptible beings - separate frompurity. God and the eternal soul are incorrupt-ible beings. When things are in perfect harmo-ny, the body is controlled by the soul, which iscontrolled by God. Human time has a beginningand an end with history in-between, given byGod for redemption through Christ. The river oflife flowing towards an ocean of eternitybecomes a powerful metaphor for Augustine'slinear macrohistory. For Augustine, however, itis God's macrohistory or plan that he isexpounding. Human existence and history willend after the seventh age - with Christ's millen-nial reign on Earth with the New TestamentChurch from New Jerusalem - when Satan's finalrebellion is crushed and the Day of Universalresurrection and Judgement begins.

The implications for the future of the citythrough Augustine's macrohistory are clear: allcities will be modelled on the sacred archetype.The City of God is a recurring western memeand archetype for the sacred city or utopianideal. The New Jerusalem is powered by spiritu-al/cosmic energy; ruled by Christ, it is a holytheocracy, administered by the just servantchurch, dispensing health, wellbeing and adivine economy. Beyond the city walls the Earthis renewed and made whole. During Christ'smillennial Reign, the Church serves as culturalchange agent, co-creating and ministering with-in the healing City of God. This Christian cityimage has endured for nearly two thousandyears and still influences those who believe thathumanity needs a benevolent hierarchy toimpose order within chaos.

Nikolai Kardashev and Freeman DysonAstrophysicists Nickolai Kardashev and

Freeman Dyson have proposed types of civilisa-tions based on energy demand and source.Such a model propounds a mathematical linearprogression of continued growth, driven by thecivilisation's science and technology energyneeds. For Kardashev and Dyson there are onlythree energy sources, Planet, Star and Galaxy,and four types (or progressive stages) of civilisa-tion: the first is powered by a planet'sexhaustible fossil fuels (Type 0); the secondrelies on a global network of the planet's renew-

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able sources (Type 1); the third taps into theplanet's Star more directly (Type 2); and the finaltaps into the cosmic energy of a galaxy (Type 3).The quantum physicist Michio Kaku (1998)argues that Kardashev and Dyson's evolutionarymodel of civilisations serves as a model to ourown thinking about the evolution of our planetfor the next several thousand years.

The implication for human civilisation andthe city of this perspective is that we are stilldeeply embedded at the Type 0 civilisationalstage. Our cities and their transportation sys-tems are predominately powered by non-renewable fossil fuels or toxic nuclear fission.The issue here is that the present "modern plu-tocracy" - divided by nation states and poweredby toxic non-renewable energy sources (fossilfuel and nuclear) - needs, in the next stage, totransform to "planetary democracy" powered bya global network of shared renewable energysources. Drivers for such change are the sustain-ability ethics of "energy futures", and planetarygovernance, equitable development and sur-vival of the human species. This wasBuckminster Fuller's message thirty years ago.(1969)

Transformation from a Type 0 to a Type Icivilisation is critical if we are to avoid the risk ofannihilation or ecological collapse. Likewise,such transformations are required at the citylevel. Regarding urban form alone, our sprawl-ing energy and resource consuming cities needto become more compact, and energy andresource efficient.

Pierre Teilhard de ChardinTeilhard de Chardin - a Jesuit Priest educat-

ed in the dualistic philosophy of ThomasAquinas (who in turn was influenced byAugustine) - sought a synthesis between matterand spirit. Kardashev's macrohistory aligns withTeilhard de Chardin's (1961), agreeing that theevolutionary process of civilisation tendstowards greater socialisation, complexification(synthesis) and centricity. For both, evolution iseternal, but Teilhard de Chardin believes thatevolution is also tending towards the spirit -towards pure radial energy (love). He recognisesthe continual tension of the universe towards

increasing entropy (disorder) within his model,and that at times the socialisation process (noo-genesis) is counter-evolutionary. When this hap-pens, society succumbs to entropy, individual-ism and depersonalisation, and falls away fromthe spiritual.

The implications for the city of this posi-tion are that:

1. City design transforms to allow, pro-mote and reflect the spiritual develop-ment of all citizens. The sacred placeswithin the city need to be redefined.

2. The City as an organisation develops acollective and reflective consciousness -City Noosphere. (The city is alive andmindful.)

3. The City becomes more complex,organised, and will tend to synthesiseand converge in space and energy.(More multi-layered, dense and com-pact.)

4. When the city reaches its point of maxi-mum synthesis, it attains a new, differ-ent level and organisation of its whole-ness.

5. If the city acts incongruently with spiri-tual evolution, it will tend towardentropy, individualism, depersonalisa-tion and self-extinction.

Karl MarxMarx's macrohistory is focussed on techno-

economic stages. It is based on the relationshipof four variables in a linear, one way causal flow:from the means of production (technical struc-ture), to determining the mode of production(economic structure), to determining the super-structure (social and political systems), andthence to determining the social consciousness(spiritual process of life). This model has provento be too rigid and problematic, as history asshown. (Galtung & Inayatullah 1997: 64 - 65)But, what can be learnt from this model if it isreframed as holons within a holarchy, instead ofas a linear hierarchy - that is, if it is reworked tomaintain the four variables while allowinggreater emergence and inter-relational flowbetween them? The lesson for the city is that totransform the superstructure (civic, political and


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cultural systems), intervention would berequired at all levels - at the technical, econom-ic, and spiritual. A multi-dimensional approachis fundamental in this age of chaos theory andsystems thinking. Marx is concerned about thereproducibility of social/political systems. (Howdoes it reproduce itself without exploitation?)This concept is similar to today's struggle forsustainability. How will cities reproduce thequality of life expected or demanded by its citi-zens? How will they be sustainable?

Adam SmithSmith's macrohistory is a linear rise and fall

model. Movement through the stages (moralprogress) is through realising the greatest pros-perity and liberty for individuals within a socie-ty. This moral progress is driven by the unity ofself-love and love for others as the motivation ofa society's individuals. If this motivation exists,the society is likely to ascend towards the nextdevelopmental stage. Smith deduced that themoral goal of a society was a genuine economyof exchange and common welfare for all citi-zens. He also deduced the dangers and stagna-tion of advanced capitalism, where self-lovedominates love for others, leading to a declineof morality and of material conditions for themajority of society. Smith's (1776) utmost con-cerns are with the material and spiritual, andtheir dynamic balance and tension within socie-ty, and are reiterated by Sorokin (1957) whodeveloped his cyclic macrohistory based on thesame dialectic between the material and spiritu-al.

Smith's model reflects the actual history ofthe development of the western city. His macro-historical stages, and their implications for thecity are:

1. Age of nomadic hunters - city as shelter.2. Age of pasturage - city as storehouse.3. Age of Agriculture - Imperial City.4. Age of Commerce:

�Maritime Trade - Renaissance City.� Industrial Age - Industrial City.

Trajectories for cities after the industrialphase of development, but still within his Age ofCommerce are:

� Information Age - Informational City.

� Knowledge Economy - Creative/Learning City.

There are two key inferences for the cityfrom Smith's work. Firstly, there is an implicitwarning that the city should be designed tocombine self-love with love for others - theunity of the material and the spiritual.Consequently, the city is the social laboratoryfor human civilisation where the dialectic ten-sion between self-love and love for others istested and manifested. Secondly, some westerncities are in different states within Smith's age ofcommerce. Some are in decline (e.g., Detroit,USA - Industrial City) whilst others are in ascen-dency. (Bilbao, Spain - Industrial City transform-ing into Creative City)

Cyclic ModelsPitirim Sorokin

Sorokin's Social and Cultural Dynamics([1957] 1985, written between 1913 and 1941)provides a macrohistory based on the "mentali-ty" of the culture. These cultural paradigms donot carry geo-historically identifiable names;rather they are typologies of how cultures per-ceive the nature of reality. He categorises cul-tures as being predominately:

� Ideational (spiritual) - nature of realityconcerned with ideas (meta-empirical ortranscendental).

� Sensate (materialistic) - nature of realityconcerned with matter and satisfyingthe senses.

� Idealistic (eclectic/integrated) - nature ofreality concerned with or balanced byboth matter and ideas.

Figure 2: Sorokin's Macrohistory


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Sorokin (1957) argues that socio-culturalchange is cyclic, in the form of a pendulum,swinging (as illustrated in Figure 2) fromIdeational through Idealistic to Sensate, andback to Ideational. His theory, which describesseven socio-cultural mentalities and the dynam-ics of change, will not be reiterated here.However, Sorokin's evidence correlating thestyles of Greco-Roman architecture and

Christian/western architecture with the culturalswing from Ideational to Sensate will be used.

As shown in Table 1, Sorokin's macrohisto-ry fits independent historical accounts of theevolution of the city within occidental civilisa-tion, based on the work of Henri Pirenne (1925),V. Gordon Childe (1950), H. D. F. Kitto (1951),and M. Savage and A. Warde (1993).

Table 1: Evolution of Occidental Cities align with Sorokin's Macrohistory (super rhythm) of Cultural Paradigms


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Interpreted using Sorokin's model, presentwestern culture is Sensate. This premise isbased on our empirical reality, a reality that isunderpinned by scientific reductionist observa-tion and social values of wealth, comfort andmaterial resource consumption to benefit ourutilitarian morality. The meta-architecture of thecity that has emerged during the modernisttwentieth century is similarly reductionist,sprawling, utilitarian and resource consumptive.The modern rationalistic city and the post-mod-ern eclectic city both serve the cosmology ofour time - the gratification of Spengler's moneyspirit.

The major implication of this model forcity futures is that the city will continue alongthe trend towards a hyper-Sensate culture withcities making a grab for limited globalresources. Before ecological collapse, thosecities that will survive do so by facilitating a ris-ing Ideational (spiritual) culture that will, in turn,transform the city's physical manifestation ortypology. This rise or revolution may be alreadyapparent in in western societies, with the rise ofthe "cultural creatives" (Ray & Anderson 2000),individuals seeking sustainable humanistic solu-tions in life, with consequent impacts on theirconsumer choices. Another current trend sup-porting Sorokin's cultural shift from the Sensatetowards the Ideational is the lifestyle "downsiz-ing" phenomenon occurring in America andAustralia.

Ibn KhaldunKhaldun's macrohistory (1377) is a cyclic

rise and fall model. The causes of historicalchange are endogenous (internal) - what causesthe rise, leads to the fall. The cycle follows apath of conquest, consolidation, blossoming,living off capital, waste and squandering, anddecline; thence returning to conquest.Khaldun's model, illustrated in Figure 3, hasthree pillars that provide the cultural dynamism:

1. Primitivism - rural/nomadic culture;2. Civilisation - city culture; and3. Asabiya - literally, the fibre or sinew by

which a group is held together. Asabiya bindspeople into effective groups. This is achievedthrough struggle and social unity of purpose.

Figure 3: Khaldun's Model

The rise and fall of asabiya drives culturalchange within Khaldun's model. Primitivism(tribal survival in the wilderness) provides theenvironmental context in which asabiya canthrive and new moral leaders emerge, whilstCivilisation (leisure and narcissistic individual-ism) provides the urban context for asabiya tofragment and morally decline. The cycle islinked to four generations and their culturalcapacity and memory for asabiya. The risecomes with the first generation, which exercisesthe creative power to learn and leave a legacy.The second generation witnesses the efforts ofthe first and consolidates the legacy. The thirdgeneration loses the capacity to innovate andrelies on imitation and tradition, whilst thefourth generation has no cultural memory ofthe creative struggle of their forebears and ofthe asabiya they nurtured and possessed. Theoriginal legacy is virtually spent by the succeed-ing generations, and decline provides the con-text for a new rising culture/generation.

The implications of Khaldun's model forthe city are that cities can expect decline, as thesecond generation, unlike the first, will beunable to rise to the challenges of their time.Decline ends when outsiders take over thereigns of power and the cycle starts again. Candecline be arrested through social interven-tions? Is community-visioning of the future theanswer to creating asabiya within our cities -the shared goal that binds a community togeth-er? One modern response - the Oregon com-munity visioning model - provides a tool to get


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ahead of the drivers of change affecting a com-munity and create a better future. However,community visioning needs to become a way oflife and governance for future generations tolikewise create better futures - lest we forgetthe asabiya that binds us.

Arnold ToynbeeArnold Toynbee's A Study of History (1972)

(written between 1934 and 1961), provides amacrohistory that is a cyclic rise and fall model;he argues that societies change, just as individu-als are born, mature, grow old, and die.Toynbee's model is similar to that of Khaldun;however, in Toynbee's macrohistory the cre-ative response to challenges comes from a cre-ative minority within the social system (renewalfrom the internal proletariat), rather than fromnomadic outsiders (the external proletariat). Aswell, Toynbee's process of civilisation is moregeneral and can be applied to either the rural orurban contexts, whereas Khaldun's cyclic pro-gression is from rural/nomadic to urban con-texts.

Toynbee's genesis for a civilisation beginswith the challenge and response cycle, in whichthe creative minority perceives the challengeand generates an adequate and creative, normerely ritualistic and routine, response.Development of the civilisation is dependent onthe continual application of the challenge andresponse cycle, and the enhancement of this toa challenge-response-mimesis cycle. Here, amimetic majority freely imitates the responses. Ibelieve this social mimesis is very similar toInnovation Diffusion theory developed byEverett Rogers (1962) in his book Diffusion ofInnovations. The process of innovation diffusionis how a new idea - usually originating from avisionary thinker or inventor - is adopted bysociety. Galtung and Inayatullah (1997:124)state that similarities also exist with Tarde'sLaws of Imitation (1903). In Toynbee's view, forcivilisation to avoid decline and move towardsgreater unity and vitality, it must operate thechallenge-response-mimesis cycles all the time.If this cycle is arrested, then decline sets in,beginning with the proletariat withdrawingtheir mimesis, and unity breaks down. The cre-

ative minority then take control as the domi-nant minority to institutionalise the state andkeep the proletariat in check. Total dissolutionproceeds, as the proletariat resists the fossilisedstate, and their only hope lies in the coming of aSaviour.

For the city, the implication of Toynbee'smacrohistory is that the city must nurture a cul-ture of the creative, learning community or elsesuffer waves of decline, missed opportunity orecological overshoot and collapse. Sir PeterHall, renowned city planner and urban histori-an, claims that Charles Landry's book TheCreative City is a "truly millennial book andshows how modes of thinking can regeneratecities facing the challenge of survival." (Landry2000) In that book, Landry argues that creativityis the lifeblood of cities, and cities have one cru-cial resource - their people - that affects theirability to adapt and survive, more so than loca-tion, natural resources and market access:

Today many of the world's cities face periods oftransition [and decline] largely brought about bythe vigour of renewed globalisation. These transi-tions differ from region to region: in some areas,like Asia, cities are growing, while in others, suchas Europe, old industries are disappearing and thevalue added in cities is created less through whatis manufactured and more through intellectualcapital applied to products, processes and servic-es. (Landry 2000: xiii)

Oswald Spengler - The maturation and decayof cultures

Oswald Spengler's macrohistory, describedin his work, The Decline of the West (1926), isisomorphic with the life cycle of the individual,and in this respect is similar to Toynbee's posi-tion. Where Spengler is different, however, isthat he is a cultural relativist, arguing that thetrue meaning of culture is gained by under-standing its mystical soul - which is unique andhas its own possibilities of self-expression.Spengler believed in many cultures, each withits own identity and path, each following a gen-eral four stage pattern of birth, growth, maturi-ty, and death. These stages were also detailedas pre-culture, early culture, late culture, andmass civilisation. The cultural life cycle beginswith a metaphysical birth in time and space of


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the culture from the formless protosoul. Thecultural soul takes form through the develop-ment of its cosmology - its central idea thatmotivates the people. There are similaritieshere to Khaldun's asibiya. Spengler's model isillustrated in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Spengler's Model

The purpose of culture is to actualise thesum of its possibilities, its spirit or central ideathrough its various systems such as language,myths, art, sciences, technology, and states. Thelife cycle anticipates growth to the late culturestage and then a decline towards mass civilisa-tion, meaning urbanisation dominated by thedesire for money. Upon death the culturereverts to protosoul. Spengler sought not anempirical social science for historical change,but rather levels of truth or insights into themetaphysical structure of historical humanity asartist or poet. The means of understanding thatculture is by revelation of the whole throughthe parts, in this case through the systems thatmanifest the culture's cosmology.

The implications for city futures throughthe perspective of Spengler's macrohistoryaffect Identity and Spirit. Firstly, cities as a sys-tem within a culture emerge with a uniqueidentity and architecture as they actualise thecultural spirit in time and geographic space.Architecture is well understood as a systemthrough which a culture expresses its spirit,episteme and cosmology. Sorokin recognisedthis when in his work he used the developmentof Greco-Roman and Christian architecture totest the validity of his proposed super rhythm of

cultural mentalities. As a result of this culturalexpression through architecture, a city's spirit ofplace - or what Aldo Rossi (1982) defines aslocus - emerges. However, as the cultural lifecycle continues towards mass civilisation, locus- the city's spirit of place - degenerates. This pat-tern is evidenced in many cultures today as apostmodern, western international architecturesupplants regional vernacular architecture incities - for example in the rapid development ofthe S.E. Asian cities of Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok,Singapore, and Beijing. The result is samenessamongst the world cities and a loss of culturaldiversity. Secondly, cities will mature and die,losing their "spirit" in the mass civilisation stage.

Spiral ModelsRiane Eisler

Eisler's model (Galtung & Inayatullah 1997:144) focuses on the dynamic interaction of twomovements:

1. The tendency of social systems towardsgreater complexity; and

2. The cultural shifts between two organi-sational forms or ways of relation:� Dominator model - patriarchal social

structure based on the ranking ofmen over women in domination hier-archy.

� Partnership model - neither half ofhumanity is ranked over the otherwithin a generally more democraticpolitical and economic structure.

The result of this multi-dimensional dynamismis a spiral model, where both linear and cyclicpatterns are observable in history.

The implications are readily seen in thegovernance of our cities. City administrations orlocal governments shift over time between thedominator model and the partnership model,changing the way they relate to their citizensand how they develop and implement policy.1Meanwhile, the tension between these organi-sational models grows as each continues todevelop and struggle for legitimacy within cul-tures. Eisler (1987) also argues that the emer-gence of our species initiated the age of humancoevolution or co-creation through our technol-


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ogy. This being the case, our cities - as themajor instruments of our technical prowess -are also fundamental habitats for this co cre-ation and coevolution.

Prabhat Rainjan SarkarSarkar's cyclic theory of cultural change

does not rely on external variables or life condi-tions. Rather, the mindset or collective psychol-ogy of the cultural class (social group) is thesource of their downfall within the system anddrives the evolutionary cycle. The next culturaltakeover seeks to address the past era's culturalexploitations. The flow of these dimensions isillustrated in Figure 5, and the nature of eachsocial cycle is summarised in Table 2.

Figure 5: Sarkar's Model

Situating the world at the end of theVaeshya era in Sarkar's model, two implicationsfor the future of the city emerge. Firstly, interms of its urban morphology, the Vaeshya cityof our capitalist era has dominated the ecologyand its ideas (culture). As a result, the internalurban contradictions that have trendedupwards - such as unsustainable habitats andlifestyles - will drive further change towardsShudra city. This phase of development willfocus on the needs and wellbeing of the city'scitizens, but subjugate them beneath the needsand health of the local/global ecology (bios-phere). Shudra city seeks to be the ecologicallysustainable city and its workers are likewisefocussed on saving the environment, mimickingits bio-efficiencies and being led by a new socialorder and logic. This Shudra revolution rein-states equity and justice, but keeps the learningof the previous capitalist era. Secondly, in termsof a transformational leadership, the Sadvipraare needed to make this transition towardsShudra city, because the Shudra mind seeks tolive in the material present and pursue pleasure.Sadvipra is the balanced and integrated leader,who moves society forward by creating innova-tion when the cyclical downward trend begins.

James LovelockLovelock's Gaia hypothesis or bio-cybernet-

ic universal system tendency/homeostasis (1979)

Table 2: The stages of the social cycle


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provides a cosmic model as context to under-stand the macrohistory of human civilisationupon the Earth. The Gaia hypothesis is that:"Life maintains conditions favourable to theexistence of life on Earth". Gaia theory is basedon planetary system dynamics, and suggeststhat the earth behaves functionally as a self-reg-ulating single super-organism (Moughtin 1999:90) to maintain homeostasis. Homeostasis is astate of constancy that organisms maintainwhen the environment around them is chang-ing. Lovelock's planetary modelling stronglysuggests that the more variables in the cyber-netic system (species), the more robust andviable the system becomes. This supports thecase for the protection of biodiversity to main-tain the long-term stability of planetary self-reg-ulation. Within the Gaian system, changes areproduced by internal (e.g., biological waste) andexternal forces (e.g., solar radiation), and contra-dictions to life that result from these forces tendto be resolved through the process of synthesis.This Gaian system's tendency towards greatercomplexity at the cosmic and geo-physiologicallevel is also used by various macrohistorians tounderstand the past, present and future ofhumanity. Teilhard de Chardin (1961), Toynbee(1971), Sarkar (1983) and Eisler (1987) all usethe tendency towards new synthesis or greatercomplexification to resolve contradictions with-in social systems.

Humanity as a species is part of the symbi-otic relationships within Gaia; however, ourtechnology has now become the major sourceof planetary change, disrupting the homeostasisor ecological balance. This factor makes itimperative that human civilisation is consideredin the context of planetary history, geo-physiol-ogy and our relations with nature. UsingTeilhard de Chardin's macrohistory, Wilber(2001: 97-99) argues for an integrated approachwhere the physiosphere is nested within thebiosphere, which is nested within the noos-phere, which is nested within the theosphere.Gaia theory integrates the physiosphere and thebiosphere as a super-organism; however it isstill nested within the human noosphere (super-consciosness). This means that Gaia as a holoncan live without humans, but the human noos-

phere cannot live without Gaia.The implication for the city of the Gaia

hypothesis is that its future, being the futurehabitat of human culture and civilisation, cannotbe segregated from the future viability, healthand maintenance of Earth's life-sustaininghomeostasis (Gaia). I propose that the norma-tive theory for city design and urban formwould be grounded in the same Gaian princi-ples of:

� Complexification of energy and matter;� Synthesis of systems;� Symbiotic relationships;� Self-regulation and bio-mimicry (or learn-

ing) towards dynamic balance (home-ostasis).

The resultant city form would be compact,energy efficient, zero net waste and zero emis-sion, equitably accessible, and symbiotically onewith the ecology. In the past, such visions - suchas Poalo Soleri's (1969) concept of "arcology" -were considered impractical: a city in the imageof man. The Gaian imperative, however, nowfundamentally challenges our modernist andneo-traditional forms of city design. City form inthe future, I believe, must follow function andfunction will be reassessed to follow life.

Synergies between Macro HistoricalPerspectives

Macrohistories by nature are grand anddiverse in their scope, time frames, and socialunit of analysis. Galtung and Inayatullah (1997:216) show that these diverse perspectives arecomplementary, not contradictory. The intentof using different macrohistories is not to pre-dict the future, or literally apply the models tothe city as if each theory represented the wholetruth. Rather, my aim is to seek out the diverseimplications that affect the city as a holon andpart social unit through the diverse perspectivesprovided by macrohistorians. The commonali-ties that emerge around city futures throughthese 12 perspectives (six linear, four cyclic andthree spiral models) are mutually supportiveand robust. These common focus areas are:

1. The city collapse scenario;2. The sustainable city;


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3. The complex, compact, cybernetic city;4. City governance and its transformation;5. The humane and spiritual city;6. The emerging city noosphere; and7. The renewable energy-powered and effi-

cient city.

The City Collapse Scenario

The linear macrohistorians, such asAugustine and Teilhard de Chardin, with theiroccidental worldview, and clear model of abeginning and end, share Spengler's view of thelife cycle: there is a time for decline and death.As such, a city as a social unit or culture canexpect the same. The reason for city collapsefrom Augustine's perspective is that humanity isimperfect and so too their products are corrupt-ible. Ultimately, the great city of corruption -symbolic Babylon - will be wiped away whenthe City of God descends upon the Earth. ForTeilhard de Chardin, city collapse is probablewhen the city acts incongruently with spiritualevolution. The city's citizens will tend towardentropy, individualism, depersonalisation andself-extinction. Likewise, Spengler saw theurbanisation of cultures at the mass civilisationstage as a similar process of decline and dispirit-ed peoples. From Marx's perspective, if a cultur-al system is unable to reproduce itself, it col-lapses. Marx's concept of reproducibility withminimal exploitation was a prototype of theBrundtland Commission's concept of sustain-ability (1987): a city that is unsustainable willcollapse or experience revolution.

Cyclic macrohistorians such as Khaldun,Sorokin, and Toynbee also anticipate culturaldecline. The reason for city collapse in Khaldun'smodel is the loss of asibiya or social purpose.Here, a city can lose a competitive advantage inour rapidly changing global world when it losessight of its vision or purpose. For Sorokin, citycollapse is inevitable when the dominant cultur-al paradigm is materialistic and individualistic,and our nature of reality is concerned onlyabout matter. This narcissistic behaviour trendstowards chaos before renewal in the oppositeIdeational direction. For Toynbee, city collapseoccurs when the cultural change agents are

unable to respond creatively to challenges thatthreaten the city. Complacency is the indicatorwarning of a fall.

The Sustainable City

The sustainable city focus is common toGaia theory, Marx, Sarkar, and Eisler. From thecosmic perspective of Gaia theory (Lovelock1979), the city and its citizens need to maintainthe Earth's homeostasis or dynamic balance.Eisler (1987) and the partnership model oforganisation share this concept of stewardshipand oneness. Eisler also argues that humantechnology initiated the age of co-creation withnature, but that, equally, it has the potential forco-extinction. The driver for both is that the citymust be sustainable. For Marx (Marx & Engels[1848] 1975), the sustainable city allows inter-generational reproducibility of culture withoutenvironmental, social (class) and economicexploitation. The city must provide the basichuman needs of its population: food, housing,health, and wellbeing.

My extrapolation of the Shudra city, fromSarkar's macrohistory, likewise focuses on theneeds of the workers (downtrodden mass),whilst ensuring that the ecological health of thecity's biosphere is maintained. Sustainability is avirtue from Sarkar's perspective, releasing socie-ty from the capitalist era's exploitation of theentire system, a system where nature is headingtowards collapse and the society as a whole iscomprised of two great classes directly facingeach other across a wealth divide: the bour-geoisie and the proletariat (Marx & Engels 1975:33). From Sarkar's perspective, the Vaeshya(Capitalist Bourgeoisie) and Shudra (Proletariat -Ksattriyan, and Vipran as they too serve theVaeshya's pursuit of accumulation) collectiveminds have nowhere to go except revolution. Itis not inevitable that this revolution has to be aviolent struggle; rather, it may be peaceful if it isdefined as the sustainability revolution. Here, allof Sarkar's self-conscious varnas unite to trans-form the system and ultimately themselvestowards the qualities of Sadvipra. The Sadvipraembodies a new type of synergistic leadershipthat champions sustainability.


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This sustainability revolution is observabletoday through the implementation of TheNatural Step programme (Robèrt 2002) bystates, cities or organisations, or the creation ofNatural Capitalism (Hawken, Lovins & Lovins1999) to transform the current world's capitalisteconomic system. Natural Capitalism uses fourprinciples to drive the transformation process:(1) radically increase resource productivity; (2)copy the way nature does business (bio-mimic-ry); (3) re-invest in natural capital (assets); and (4)ensure no net loss of human or natural capital.The major benefit from cities following the prin-ciples of Natural Capitalism would be thathumanity's habitation would be brought into asymbiotic relationship with Gaia. At a deeperlevel, Sarkar argues for a spiritual ecologywhere humanity is not put at the centre of allpolitical, economic and cultural discourses(Inayatullah 2002: 28). Rather, humans areamong many inhabitants of Earth, a view consis-tent with Gaia theory. The achievement ofprama or dynamic balance between and withinthe societal, ecological and personal dimen-sions is fundamental for Sarkar, and reframesthe meaning of sustainability, yet is strikinglysimilar to Lovelock's planetary homeostasis ordynamic balance.

The Complex, Compact, CyberneticCity that Creates Identity

This focus area is common to Gaia theory,Spengler (from the cyclic change camp) andTeilhard de Chardin (from the linear changecamp). The central idea that emerges for thecity is the process of complexification of urbanform/design - maximising synthesis and bio-mimicry.

The concept of complexification - the ideathat social organisations tend towards greatercomplexity in their evolution - is not uncom-mon in social theory. Whether comparing theunilinear change path of Teilhard de Chardin'smodel, the life cycle change path of Spengler'smodel, or Gaia theory's biological evolutionarypath, the progressions from smaller to larger,simpler to more complex, rural to urban, and

low technology to high technology are universalin the long run. For Teilhard de Chardin, if thecity acts congruently with evolution, the citybecomes more complex and organised, and willtend to synthesise and converge in space andenergy. When the city reaches its point of maxi-mum synthesis, it attains a new different leveland organisation of its wholeness. In a practicalsense it becomes more multi-layered, denseand compact. Urban sprawl is transformed orabandoned for more energy-efficient organisa-tional forms. Using biology as the analogy, Iliken our current sprawling cities to a simplereplicating virus, dependent upon its host andat the same time killing it. The next phase ofdevelopment would liken cities to beneficialbacteria living within the host, contributing toits overall health.

For Spengler, the advent of the city orurbanisation was the stage of maturation for aculture. Architecture is a system of culture, andas such reflects that culture's spirit and centralidea - collective dharma or purpose of being.Ideally, for Spengler, the architecture of a cityprovides cultural identity; however, as theprocess of maturation continues towards masscivilisation, the unique vernacular architecturetends towards mass production and global stan-dardisation. The result is a city devoid of its cul-tural heritage. Teilhard de Chardin's notion thatsociety likewise tends towards depersonalisa-tion and entropy corresponds with Spengler'sdecline, driven by the money spirit, andSorokin's "Sensate" cultural paradigm. The alter-native to the sprawling urban form of samenessis synthesis of urban form. Design synthesismay reverse the trend towards sameness andre-create Rossi's "Locus" - the spirit of a place.Cities, as they bio-mimic nature's (Gaia's) synthe-sis of systems and complexification of energyand matter, may likewise become identifiable,beautiful, inspirational places and entities.

Transformation of the City and itsGovernance

The focus of the transformation of the cityis common to Sarkar, Marx, Eisler and Khaldun.


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The idea that becomes apparent is the need forour cities to continually transform to create bet-ter urban futures, and that governance is a keydriver for such transformation. Sarkar's modelemphasises the need for transformational lead-ership through the Sadvipra group mind.Linking city leadership and governance with thesustainability innovation provides the Sadviprawith a new agenda. Here, sustainability innova-tion towards Natural Capitalism is the leader'smotivation and the leader must possess theskills of the traditional types: worker, warrior,intellectual, and trader to achieve their agenda.This means they must be energy based toimprove productivity or services, whilst reduc-ing resource consumption; courageous to chal-lenge waste and injustice; wise to createhuman/social capability with no net loss of natu-ral capital; and innovative enough to create newwealth. The Sadvipra are willing to construct aself that has aspects of all four varnas - servant,protector, intellectual, and innovator - and arehighly evolved spiritually.

The leadership lesson for the city fromMarx's perspective is that to transform the city'ssuperstructure (civic, political and cultural sys-tems), intervention would be required at all lev-els - the technical, economic, and spiritual. Amulti-dimensional approach is fundamental inthis age of chaotic cultural and systemic change.Sarkar's Sadvipra would likewise be skilled atimplementing transformation towards a betterurban future, using a multi-dimensionalapproach of social development. This multi-dimensional development of the city as a socialunit would require, from Sarkar's perspective, aspiritual ideology and practice, a socio-econom-ic theory, a social justice and solidarity ethic,city texts providing urban theory, meaning andinspiration, and finally a preceptor or changeagent for urban innovation (Inayatullah 2002:212). Sarkar argues that these six dimensionsmust be active for a successful civilisation, andthus, in an increasingly urban world, I suggestthat they must be present in a successful city aswell.

For Khaldun, what is important in transfor-mational leadership is asibiya - the collectivepurpose, unity and memory that binds a group.

Applied alongside Sarkar, asibiya provides theshared city vision for the city's leaders (Sadvipra)across governments, business, NGOs and thecitizenry. Here, Eisler's organisational modelprovides further insight as shifts occur betweenthe dominator and partnership styles of civicand corporate governance. Within the multi-dimensional milieu that creates the city, part-nerships between the city's stakeholders will bemore effective if they are motivated by a collec-tive purpose and vision (asibiya).

The era of hierarchical and regulatoryforms of leadership may well be long gone if theaim is to provide learning city leadership able torapidly adapt to and navigate the current andprojected waves of chaotic cultural change. Ipropose that leaders who navigate citiesthrough this change towards a better future willleverage sustainability innovation, by possessingmultiple varnas (group minds/perspectives) andwill be able to see and implement multi-dimen-sional processes to create effective partnershipsbound by asibiya (collective purpose).

The Humane and Spiritual City

This focus area is common to Smith,Augustine, Teilhard de Chardin, Sorokin, andSarkar. The implication for the city is the needfor it to be a habitat for the human and spiritualdevelopment of its citizens.

Smith (1776), when formulating his theoryof moral sentiments, may not have been influ-enced by Augustine but he was clearly influ-enced by Christianity's second "great law": "loveyour neighbour as you would love yourself". ForSmith, an ascending society and, by association,an ascending city, would be one where the citi-zens combine self-love with love for others - theunity of the material and the spiritual - in theirdaily morality. The city becomes the social labo-ratory for human civilisation where the dialectictension between self-love and love for others istested and manifested. City design, then, is con-structed not only to materially benefit its citi-zens by providing personal liveability, but alsoto spiritually benefit its citizens by providingpublic welfare. Contrary to this, Augustinebelieved humanity was incapable of creating

such a society or city, as our human conditionembodies the imperfection of being motivatedby self-love. For Augustine, the divine love forothers (agape) is only possible through the soulcontrolled by God, Christ being the prototypeof this love and the King destined to rule NewJerusalem - the sacred City of God. What is rele-vant from Augustine's model is the fact thatNew Jerusalem remains a powerful archetype ormetaphor for Christian civilisation - the right-eous city-church with centralised power collect-ing tithes and, in return, dispensing justice tothe heathen colonies outside the city.

Teilhard de Chardin's evolutionary modelof the universe describes how it tends towardthe Spirit. Incongruence with this spiritualdevelopment of humanity leads to entropy,individualism, depersonalisation and, finally,self-extinction. The first three traits are observ-able in most if not all of our cities and would beof no surprise to Sorokin (1957). He too arguedthat western culture was currently dominatedby a materialistic worldview or sensate para-digm, driving itself toward chaos before a swingtowards an ideational (spiritual) cultural para-digm. His study of the development of architec-ture throughout his proposed cultural super-rhythm showed that the architecture of the city- whether rationalistic (modern) or eclectic(postmodern) - likewise is sensate. For Sorokin,the spiritual city would consist of ideationalarchitecture, dedicated to building transcenden-tal values within the citizenry by communicat-ing the meaning and value of what is beyondthe material world. The city would be manifestwith spiritual symbolism.

The current dearth of compassion withinour developing cities, and lack of balancebetween the material and spiritual in our west-ern cities, has not gone unnoticed by the UnitedNations. The message that UNESCO brought tothe City Summit (Habitat II) in Istanbul, target-ing this dearth with a clear agenda, can beexpressed in three words: "Humanising theCity". Humanising the city for all ages (stages) ofthe life cycle would be a practical step towardsinitiating Sorokin's swing towards an Ideationalcultural paradigm and spiritual city. For Sarkar,however humanising the city would only satisfy

the basic needs of material existence (asti) -access to shelter, food, clothing, education, andhealth services. Real progress (bhati) is only spir-itual and is made possible through the exis-tence and development of the six factors ofcivilisation described in the previous focus area.Those cities that have these factors will leadthem to bliss (ananda), where individuals live inpeace and justice and where spiritual develop-ment is possible. (Inayatullah 2002: 213)Inayatullah proposes that Sarkar's model andagenda seeks a spiritual planetary civilisationwhose goal is to go beyond survival, and createa society where internal development - mentalbliss - is possible. (ibid: 27) The spiritual city, forAugustine, Smith, Teilhard de Chardin, Sorokin,and Sarkar, is one where city design transformsto allow, promote and reflect the spiritual devel-opment of all citizens. The implication of thisurban prerequisite is that our current sacredplaces within the city need to be redefined tofree us from our constraining episteme of whatis real. Instead, our sacred places need to nur-ture an expansive, universal spiritual ideologythat allows open-ended exploration and evolu-tion.

The Emerging City Noosphere -Learning, Conscious, Creative andIdentifiable

This city noosphere focus is common toTeilhard de Chardin, Toynbee, Spengler, andEisler. What I propose from their work is theidea that the city may become a conscious enti-ty, able to respond to internal and externalforces of change.

Teilhard de Chardin (1961) introduced theidea of the noogenesis as an evolutionary stagein his human macrohistory. It is the advent ofhuman reflective consciousness and the shiftfrom the biological condition to the culturalcondition. The noosphere is the collectivenature of human reality - the accumulation ofsuccessive intelligences and memories. ForSpengler (1926) also, the "spirit of culture" isessentially collective consciousness focussed onactualising its central thought or idea. Add to


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Teilhard de Chardin's and Spengler's sharednotion of collective consciousness the fact thatour cities are the technological hubs, enablingwhat Eisler argues is humanity's capacity to beco-creators within the universe, and the cityemerges as the nexus for the next creative revo-lution. The city noosphere is reflective, con-scious, creative and identifiable - capable ofchanging our evolutionary course. The Matrixmovie is, I propose, the cultural expression ofwhat the western collective consciousness fearsmost - the domination of the artificial intelli-gence of the city noosphere over the humannoosphere. The virtual reality of this noospherebondage and exploitation forms the Matrix. Thereverse of this scenario is portrayed as morefruitful - the liberation of the human noosphereto pursue its spiritual path, enabled by theexploitation of artificial intelligence, genomicand nano-technologies. By 2025, with the pro-jected convergence of these technologies, thecity noosphere may well be a reality. MichioKaku (1998) shows how the world will bechanged by the convergence of three scientificrevolutions - the computer revolution, the bio-molecular revolution, and the quantum revolu-tion. In this world, the Smart (Cyber) City is cre-ated, where all things potentially are seamlesslylinked to the global neural network of theWorld Wide Web. The result of this conver-gence creates a highly interactive, dynamic andsentient form of human habitation (city), cohabi-tating in a symbiotic relationship with its citi-zens.

Till then, Toynbee's "creative minority" willhave to guide the city through the anticipatedwaves of technological and social change withthe appropriate creative responses to meet thechallenges ahead. Toynbee's twentieth centurymodel of cultural change is supported byLandry's (2000) twenty-first century argumentfor the "learning, creative city". Landry's centralbelief, that the learning city is the driver for thecreative use of culture in urban revitalisation,fits Toynbee's model of social evolution. Toquote Landry (2000: 267):

A developing city within society needs to be learn-ing and a creative one. For Landry, a true learn-ing city is one, which develops by learning from its

experiences and those of others. It is a place thatunderstands itself and reflects upon that under-standing - it is a "reflective city" and self-evalua-tion is a defining feature. As a result the learningcity is able to develop successfully in a rapidlychanging socio-economic environment. Where theunconcerned city flounders by trying to repeat pastsuccess for far too long, the learning city is cre-ative in its understanding of its own situation andwider relationships, developing new solutions tonew problems. The essential point made byLandry is that any city can be a learning city.What he describes is essentially also

Teilhard de Chardin's noosphere, actualising atthe city level of collective consciousness: a prob-able scenario when enabled by the future tech-nology of the Smart Cyber City.

Spengler also offers the city the key todeveloping a unique identity, against the tide ofsameness caused by globalisation or what heterms mass civilisation and urbanisation. Thecity noosphere must maintain architecture as avital system of its culture to express its spirit,episteme and cosmology. There are links herewith the need for the spiritual city and itsIdeational architecture. What is also useful isSpengler's analogy linking culture to a "personal-ity". Combine this idea with the city noosphere,and the result is an actualising conscious entitywith an identifiable personality. Teilhard deChardin's process of complexification and syn-thesis gives birth to an "intelligent" city culture -possessing not only the conscious ability tolearn and create, but also expressing an identityand personality that is the city noosphere. Inthis reality, the meta-architecture of the citynoosphere is its exoskeleton and/or endoskele-ton and ultimately the locus for its identity.

Renewable Energy-powered andEfficient Cities

The focus on efficient cities, powered byrenewable energy is common to Kardashev,Lovelock, and Sarkar. The idea that emerges isthat a significant driver of change for cities isthe transformation of energy generation andsupply.

Using Kardashev's model, our world and its


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cities are deeply embedded at the Type 0 civili-sational stage, where cities are predominatelypowered by non-renewable energy resources.This dependency on a finite resource makes ourcompetitive systems vulnerable to ecological,social and economic collapse due to resourcedepletion, war and/or the failure of our meansof technology and production. For Kardashevand Buckminster Fuller (1969), the only path tosurvival lies in the transformation of our nationstates' plutocracy to a Type I civilisation - plane-tary governance powered by a global networkof shared renewable energy sources. Cities inthis global network are the nodes of solar ener-gy generation and transmission. For example, inthe daylight, cities would be generating powerfor themselves and for the cities on the 'nightside' of the planet. Here, energy becomes thecatalyst and driver for human development andglobal co-operation.

Energy generation and use within ourcities currently make them the largest produc-ers of entropy on the planet. From Lovelock'sGaian perspective, this phenomenon is disrupt-ing the earth's dynamic balance (homeostasis),and, to reverse the trend towards greaterentropy and the collapse of the earth's life sup-port systems, our cities must become moreenergy efficient. Gaia theory, however, also pro-vides the answer for our cities. They mustmodel themselves on our ecology's frugalprocesses using the principles of bio-mimicry.The resultant city form would be compact,energy efficient, zero net waste and zero emis-sion, equitably accessible, and symbiotically onewith the ecology.

At this point, Sarkar enters once again andmakes a contribution on the energy focus ofcities from the meta-physical perspective andthe nature of what is real. For Sarkar, the real iscomposed of waves of consciousness. In hiscosmology, these waves transform into variousforms of energy (Inayatullah 2002: 28) - physicalmatter being the final, most dense form of ener-gy and consciousness. The physical fabric of thecity is likewise a denser form of energy andspace and is a part of the cosmic pattern ofenergy flow - never created nor destroyed andalways transforming. With this cosmic view,

perhaps our cities could symbolise this deepernature of the real and likewise reorganise theirmeta-architecture to enable continuous recy-cling and reconstruction within. The city, then,not only generates energy for use by its inhabi-tants, but its physical fabric is embodied energyand perhaps affects its citizens more deeplythan we understand at the meta-physical level.

Conclusion

The lessons for the future of cities from amacro-historical perspective are simple. Changewithin the city may occur within different partsof the system and in different directions withinthose parts. The city's leadership may be pro-sustainability, whilst the economic system ispro-growth and in favour of increasing grossdomestic product. As a result, we can expectdecline in some city systems (e.g., leadership,social capital, natural capital) and renewal inother city systems (e.g., constructed capital -infrastructure, economy).

For effective policy development, imple-mentation, and change navigation within ourcities, an integrated and multi-dimensionalapproach is needed. Comparing the commonal-ities amongst different macrohistories whenfocussing upon cities revealed six dimensions ofthe city critical to its symbiotic future withhuman civilisation and development. Thesedimensions reveal a city's subsystems that arethe hotspots for change intervention. Using amulti-dimensional approach with these subsys-tems, some of the indicators of change gleanedfrom the macrohistorical analysis of cities are:

Expect decline within a city system or sub-system where/when:

� Leaders are unable to respond creative-ly to challenge (complacency).

� Loss of asibiya - community purpose.� Mass civilisation and urbanisation dom-

inates.� Materialism and individualism domi-

nates.� Class divides deepen - modes (econo-

my) and means (technology) of produc-tion drift apart.

Expect renewal within a city system or


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subsystem where/when:� Creativity and learning abound.� Spirituality develops - increase in asi-

biya with a grand vision or civic idea.� Unique cultural identity is developed.� Sustainability (Natural Capitalism) is a

way of life.� Transformation towards a planetary

culture/civilisation abound (Think glob-ally, Act locally).

The significance of this piece and the dis-course between macrohistory and the develop-ment of cities as a cultural product is that fourfutures of the city emerge:

1. The possible future from the discoursebetween Smith, Augustine, Teilhard deChardin, Sorokin, and Sarkar is the"Spiritual City".

2. The probable future from the discoursebetween Augustine, Teilhard deChardin, Spengler, Khaldun, Sorokin,and Toynbee is the "Collapse Scenario".

3. The plausible future from the discoursebetween Sarkar, Spengler, Khaldun,Smith and Marx is "Mass civilisation andurban sprawl" - megalopolis.

4. The preferred future from the discoursebetween Lovelock, Marx, Sarkar andEisler is the "Holistically SustainableCity".

Currently, most western cities are trendingtowards mass civilisation, urban sprawl andmegalopolis, and the above dimensions gives aclue to where the cultural impetus for transfor-mation will need to focus in order to shift ittowards an alternative future. The city is thetangible cultural product of civilisation and assuch can be positively used as a catalysttowards the development of a planetaryhumane civilisation.

CorrespondenceUniversity of the Sunshine Coast, Faculty ofArts & Social Sciences, Contact: MaroochydoreDC, Qld 4558, Australia; [email protected] findings based on PhD programme.

Note1. For example the Maroochy 2025 Alternative

Futures and leadership model was exploredat a community visioning summit on April 3,2004. Patriarchal hierarchy, strong regulationwith top down expert leadership to domi-nate all stakeholders to save the environ-ment was contrasted with Learning, partici-patory, strong partnerships and communitygovernance to save the environment. 74% ofthe 369 participants preferred the latter lead-ership model.

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