august 2015 virginia consumer sentiment and price expectations summary report
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Summary of full report by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.TRANSCRIPT
Th e Virginia Index of Consumer Sentiment (VAICS) is 90.4 in August, statistically unchanged since the start of 2015, maintaining the highest value recorded since the index began almost four years ago. Figure 2 illustrates sentiment values for Virginia and the US over the past two years. Sen-timent in Virginia is slightly lower than the preliminary na-tional August 2015 value of 92.9, which fell for the second month in a row and is close to six points below the post-re-cession high of 98.1 recorded in January 2015. An initial es-timate of 2.3% growth in second quarter US GDP is driven in part by an increase in consumer spending. Th e drop in national sentiments is likely due to concerns over potential Federal Reserve Bank actions and a volatile stock market. Th e VAICS upward trend began in early 2013, save one dip in November 2013. Growth in sentiment is stalled, albeit at record levels. Virginia GDP is also stalled, reporting 0.0% growth in 2014. Despite some regional setbacks, Virginians’ remain more optimistic about the economy than the nation as a whole, primarily citing increased income. Th e nation as a whole is more positive about the current conditions than the Commonwealth. Th e University of Michigan reported a preliminary August 2015 current conditions value of 107.1.
Virginia Consumer Sentiment and Price Expectations Quarterly Report
August 2015
Institute for Policy and Opinion Researchwww.roanoke.edu
Dr. Alice Louise [email protected]
Sentiments remain strong in the second half of 2015
US data downloaded from FRED 8/23/2015; blue line is US Consumer Sentiment; black line is a two year moving average; orange bars are VA Consumer Sentiment
Northern Virginia leads the Commonwealth
In all regions, sentiments are strong and higher for current conditions than expectations of the coming year. Central Virginia, Northern Virginia, and the Tidewater, the most populated regions, report the strongest sentiments. South-west Virginia remains positive about the current condi-tions despite continued closing announcements by local employers. In August 2015, Northern Virginia, Southside, and Shenandoah Valley demonstrated change outside of the typical range, all in the positive direction. Southwest Virginia continues to absorb the departure announcements of several large employers with an insignifi cant change in sentiment values.
Th e short-term infl ation expectation fell slightly from May to 2.2 percent, lower than the preliminary national value of 2.8 percent. Th e long-term infl ation expectation fell to 3.9 percent, but is well above the preliminary national estimate of 2.7 percent.
Full report published 8/26/2015.