aurobindo pharma

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

Aurobindo Pharma (APL), over the years, has transformed itself from being a low-margin API player to a high-margin formulation player. Consequently, APL’s FY2012 OPM and RoE are on par with top Indian generic peers. Concerns on the debt front are also receding and the company’s net debt/equity ratio is expected to improve to 0.6x in FY2012 from 1.1x in FY2010. We expect net sales and recurring profit (excluding other operating income) to post a CAGR of 15.6% and 29.1% respectively, over FY2010-12. The stock is currently trading at 13.6x FY2011E and 10.3x FY2012E earnings, which is at 50% discount to the top Indian generic peers and unwarranted due to the improving business mix owing to which we believe that the stock is poised for re-rating. We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy recommendation and SOTP Target Price of `1,330. Supply agreements to drive growth: To leverage on its cost efficiency and strong product filings, APL entered into supply agreements with Pfizer and AstraZeneca, which provides significant revenue visibility. APL is also in talks with other MNCs for more supply agreements. Revenues from the supply agreements are set to rise 3x over FY2010-12 from `227cr to `644cr.

US and ARV formulation segments to be key drivers for base business: APL’s US base business (ex-Pfizer) is expected to post CAGR of 36.0% over FY2010-12 to US $268mn with revenue per product increasing to US $2.6mn from US $2.3mn. On ARV front, we expect revenues to log CAGR of 11.1% to `612cr over FY2010-12 as APL would continue to be the largest supplier under the PEPFAR contract with a market share of 35%.

Valuation: Based on SOTP methodology, core business (ex-other operating income) is valued at 14x FY2012E EPS (`1,263/share), while other operating income has been valued at 7x 50% of FY2012E income (`9.5/share) and ascribed `67/share.

Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Net Sales 2,935 3,370 3,796 4,506

% chg 20.8 14.8 12.7 18.7

Net Profit 100 563 479 617

% chg (58.0) 462.6 (15.0) 28.7

Recurring Profit 301 454 465 617

% chg 26.3 50.7 2.5 32.6

EPS (Rs) 18.6 101.1 84.9 109.2

Adj EPS 56.0 81.5 82.4 109.2

EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 18.3 18.6 20.4

P/E (x) 20.0 13.7 13.6 10.3

RoE (%) 25.5 29.6 22.7 24.1

RoCE (%) 7.3 12.1 12.3 15.5

P/BV (x) 4.9 3.4 2.8 2.2

EV/Sales (x) 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 22.0 13.5 11.6 8.7 Source: Company, Angel Research

BUY CMP `1,120 Target Price `1,330

Investment Period 12 Months

Stock Info

Sector

Bloomberg Code

Shareholding Pattern (%)

Promoters 54.4

MF / Banks / Indian Fls 12.7

FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.8

Indian Public / Others 6.1

Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

Sensex 12.3 16.4 12.1

APL 11.3 29.4 108.0

5

20,169

6,076

ARBN.BO

ARBP@IN

6,521

0.8

1,176/735

27393

Pharmaceutical

Avg. Daily Volume

Market Cap (` cr)

Beta

52 Week High / Low

Face Value (`)

BSE Sensex

Nifty

Reuters Code

Sarabjit Kour Nangra Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 343

[email protected]

Sushant Dalmia, CFA Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 320

[email protected]

Aurobindo Pharma Entering the big league

Initiating Coverage | Pharmaceutical

October 18, 2010

Aurobindo Pharma | Initiating Coverage

October 18, 2010 2

Initiate Coverage with a Buy and Target Price of `1,330

Recurring earnings (ex other OI) to post CAGR of 29.1%

Net sales are estimated to log a CAGR of 15.6% to `4,506cr over FY2010-12 on back of supply agreements, the US (ex-Pfizer) and ARV formulation contracts. We expect APL’s recurring earnings (excluding other operating income) to post a CAGR of 29.1% over FY2010-12 to `506cr on the back of sales growth and OPM expansion. We estimate OPM to increase by 206bp to 20.4% during the mentioned period.

Exhibit 1: Net Sales, OPM and Recurring PAT (ex other OI) trend

Source: Company, Angel Research

APL aims to clock US $2bn in FY2014

APL expects to clock strong CAGR of 29.4% in top-line to US $2bn by FY2014 from US $713mn in FY2010. The company expects contribution from the formulations segment to ramp up to 75% by FY2014 from current levels of 55%.

Exhibit 2: APL’s revenue target


Our estimates are lower than company’s long term guidance as we expect growth to be more back-ended for the company driven by US (injectables and controlled substances) and supply agreements.

1,330 1,429 1,431 1,538 1,518 1,523 1,506

271694 999

1,3971,852

2,2733,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

API Formulations

2,1222,430

2,935

(`cr

)

1,600

3,3703,796

4,506

67

189230

169

304355

506

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Recurring PAT OPM

(%)(`

cr)

322500

328

875

48

500

15

125

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

FY2010 FY2014

(US

$m

n)

API Formulations Supply Agreements Injectable business

713

CAGR 29.4%

11.6

27.8

79.7

69.9

2,000


October 18, 2010 3

APL stock poised for re-rating

APL has moved up the value chain and transformed from being a low-margin API player to a high-margin formulations player. Consequently, contribution from the formulation segment to net sales is expected to increase from 55% in FY2010 to 67% in FY2012. Moreover, APL’s FY2012 OPM and RoE are in-line with top Indian generic players. The debt concerns are also receding with the company’s net debt/equity ratio expected to improve to 0.6x in FY2012 from 1.1x in FY2010. At current levels the stock is trading at 13.6x FY2011E and 10.3x FY2012E earnings, which is at 50% discount to the top Indian generic peers and unwarranted due to the improving business mix owing to which we believe that it is poised for re-rating.

Exhibit 3: OPM and RoE comparison (FY2012)

Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: Sector includes Cadila, Cipla, DRL, Lupin, Ranbaxy and

Sun Pharma

Valuation

On a PE basis, the stock has traded in the 2-22x one-year forward PE band, and at an average of 11x in the last five years. On the EV/Sales front, the stock has been trading in the range of 0.8-2.5x and at an average of 1.7x.

Exhibit 4: 1-year forward PE and EV/Sales band


22.020.4

22.924.1

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Sector APLOPM RoE

-200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0

20x

5x

15x

10x

(`)

0

1,500

3,000

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

Apr

-05

Jul-0

5O

ct-0

5Ja

n-06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6O

ct-0

6Ja

n-07

Apr

-07

Jul-0

7O

ct-0

7Ja

n-08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8O

ct-0

8Ja

n-09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9O

ct-0

9Ja

n-10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0O

ct-1

0

EV (`

cr)

2.5x

1.5x

1.0x

2.0x


October 18, 2010 4

We have valued APL on a SOTP basis. The base business has been valued at 14x FY2012E core earnings (`90.2/share), which is at 33% discount (on the back of low presence in the high-margin domestic formulation business) to the top Indian generic players and fetches `1,263/share. We have assigned a higher multiple to APL’s core business compared to the multiple assigned by street and its historical average, as we believe that the concerns about higher contribution of the API business is unwarranted given that the company’s FY2012 OPM and RoE are on par with top Indian generic peers and are likely to sustain going forward.

APL has also seen a substantial spurt in other operating income on the back of dossier income primarily under the Pfizer agreement and sale of dossiers in Europe. Other operating income constituted nearly 31.9% of PBT in FY2010. However, we have assigned a lower multiple as there is lack of clarity regarding the time-line of the recurring nature of the dossier income. We have valued other operating income at 7x 50% of FY2012E income (`9.5/share) and ascribed `67/share.

Exhibit 5: SOTP Valuation (FY2012)

Multiple

(x) Per share (`)

Core business (`90.2/share) 14 1,263

Other Op. income at 50% FY2012E income (`9.5/share) 7 67

Total 1,330


We Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Buy recommendation and SOTP Target Price of `1,330, implying an upside of 19% from current levels.

Exhibit 6: Comparative Valuation Comparative Mcap (` cr) Sales (` cr) PE (x) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%)

FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E

Cadila Healthcare 14,147 4,308 5,100 22.5 17.4 3.4 2.8 17.1 13.5 34.8 34.7

Cipla 26,255 5,902 6,797 23.5 19.1 4.3 3.7 21.3 17.3 17.5 18.9

Dr Reddy's 26,924 8,416 9,797 27.0 20.4 3.1 2.6 16.4 13.2 25.0 25.5

Lupin 18,264 5,645 6,579 22.2 17.8 3.3 2.9 17.7 14.7 31.8 31.2

Ranbaxy 24,362 8,162 9,913 15.1 20.1 3.0 2.4 18.6 12.7 31.3 20.2

Sun Pharma 42,252 4,830 5,581 28.5 24.1 7.8 6.6 24.0 19.8 17.1 17.7

Average - 6,521 7,305 23.9 20.6 4.7 3.9 19.9 15.9 24.3 22.9

Aurobindo 6,521 3,796 4,506 13.6 10.3 2.2 1.8 11.6 8.7 22.7 24.1

Prem /(Disc) % to Avg - - - (43.2) (50.2) (53.7) (54.7) (42.0) (45.0) - -



October 18, 2010 5

Investment Arguments

Supply agreements to drive growth

On the global filings front (ANDAs and dossiers) APL has increased its filing dramatically from 313 in FY2008 to 1,171 in FY2010, as it proposes to scale up from SSP and Cephs to NPNC products. Further, the transformation from being a pure API supplier to becoming a formidable formulations player has increased its cost efficiencies, as 90% of its formulation is now backward integrated.

Exhibit 7: API and Formulations filings

Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: Other regulated markets include multiple registrations in the EU

Thus, to leverage on its cost efficiency and strong product filings, APL entered into long-term supply agreements with Pfizer (March 2009) and AstraZeneca (September 2010), which provides significant revenue visibility going ahead. The company is also in discussion with other MNCs for more supply agreements.

Under the Pfizer contract, APL would supply more than 100 products post full commercialisation of the contract and cover various geographies. In FY2010, APL scaled up supply with 23 products to the US and clocked revenues of US $48mn. In Europe, the company expects to significantly ramp up in the current fiscal. The company proposes commercialisation for the rest of the world (RoW) by FY2012. Pertinently, APL has received upfront payment under the contract boosting its cash flow. Going ahead, Pfizer is likely to add more products and cover additional geographies based on the initial response that it receives from its existing markets.

122 133 145

895

1,126

1,412

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

US Other Regulated markets

128 147 169185

838

1,002

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

US Other Regulated markets

APL has increased its global filingdramatically from 313 in FY2008 to1,171 in FY2010

In FY2010, under the Pfizer contractAPL scaled up supply to 23 products tothe US and clocked revenues of US$48mn


October 18, 2010 6

Exhibit 8: Pfizer contract - Number of products US France ROEU Aus/NZ Canada RoW

Co-Exclusive

Solid oral products 75

Exclusive

Solid oral products 34

Sterile injectable products 11

Non-Exclusive

Solid oral products 13 77 44 14 55

Sterile injectable products 1 12 12 5

Total 87 59 89 44 14 60


Under its supply agreement with AstraZeneca, APL would be supplying several solid dosage and sterile products to the emerging markets covering therapeutic segments such as anti-infective, CVS and CNS. We expect the AstraZeneca contract to contribute US $5mn in FY2012. Overall, we expect revenues from the supply agreements to increase 3x over FY2010-12 from `227cr to `644cr.

Exhibit 9: Sales under supply agreements


227367

621

23

0.0

4.0

8.0

12.0

16.0

0

200

400

600

800

FY2010 FY2011E FY2012EPfizer AstraZeneca % of Sales

(`cr

)

(%)


October 18, 2010 7

US and ARV formulation segment key drivers for base business

APL’s business, excluding the supply agreements, would primarily be driven by the US and the ARV segment on the formulation front. The API business is expected to be subdued as the company would be using most of the API for internal consumption.

Product launches to drive business in US market

APL has particularly been able to scale up its business in the US market through product introductions and the supply agreement with Pfizer. In the US, the company has seen a growth in business 16x over FY2006-10 and attained critical mass. APL’s base business (ex Pfizer) logged a CAGR of 82.3% to US $145mn over the period. Pertinently, the company scaled up supplies under the Pfizer contract in FY2010 and clocked revenues of US $48mn. APL offset the lower revenue per product (US $2.3mn) by widening its product basket (APL-61, Pfizer-23 products).

Exhibit 10: US market - Performance across players (FY2010)

Source: Company, Angel Research.

APL has commercialised 61 products in the US with the top-10 products contributing nearly 60% of its revenues in FY2010. The company primarily targets day-1 launches in the US. APL has been able to garner strong market share in highly competitive generic products such as Citalopram Hydrobromide, Paroxetine Hydrochloride, Amoxicillin, Metformin Hydrochloride and Simvastatin owing to cost advantages. APL is also witnessing strong pick up (has garnered 8% market share) in the recently launched Valacyclovir tablets. Additionally, APL recently also received approvals for the low-competition Ampicillin injections, which has a market size of more than US $100mn.

374357

331

233

193

146

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Dr Reddy Lupin Ranbaxy Sun Pharma Aurobindo Cadila

(US

$m

n)

APL’s base business (ex Pfizer) logged aCAGR of 82.3% to US $145mn overFY2006-10

APL targets day-1 launches in the USand has commercialised 61 products inthe US


October 18, 2010 8

Exhibit 11: APL’s top products in US Key Products # of players Market share (Rx, %)

Citalopram Hydrobromide >15 15

Paroxetine Hydrochloride >10 11

Amoxicillin >10 9

Metformin Hydrochloride >15 6

Simvastatin >15 5

Source: Industry, Angel Research; Note: Market share is for July 2010

APL has also commercialised its New Jersey (NJ) facility, which it acquired from Sandoz in 2006. Through this facility APL is targeting the institutional business in the US. Pertinently, to run the institutional business in the US it is necessary to have a local production unit. APL has also begun filings of controlled substances from the unit, which is expected to contribute from FY2013 onwards.

APL has been one of the aggressive filers in the US market with 169 ANDAs filed with 113 approvals received till FY2010. Among the players, APL is the third largest ANDA filer. APL has aggressively filed in the last three years and is now geared to reap benefits, even though most of the filings are for highly competitive products. APL expects to file 15-20 ANDAs in FY2011 and FY2012.

Exhibit 12: ANDA filings (FY2010)


Going ahead, the next three years in the US, with US $70bn going off-patent, one of the highest in history, we believe that APL is well placed to tap this opportunity. We expect the company to clock 42.0% CAGR in net sales in the US over FY2010-12 to US $388mn driven by product launches and the Pfizer contract. This contract is expected to contribute US $120mn constituting 31% of US sales. We expect the base business (ex-Pfizer) to post a CAGR of 36.0% over FY2010-12 and contribute US $268mn by FY2012 with revenue per product increasing to US $2.6mn from US $2.3mn in FY2010 as the company moves towards the high revenue generating NPNC and injectable (SSP and Cephs) products.

82

169

46

19

22

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Total

211 204

169 163

130113

0

50

100

150

200

250

Sun Pharma Ranbaxy Aurobindo Dr Reddy Lupin Cadila

APL expects to file 15-20 ANDAs inFY2011 and FY2012

We expect the base business(ex-Pfizer) to grow at a CAGR of 36.0%over FY2010-12 and contribute US$268mn with revenue per productincreasing to US $2.6mn


October 18, 2010 9

Exhibit 13: US sales trend


ARV business on strong footing

APL derives 15% of its revenues from the ARV segment, which registered 54.9% CAGR over FY2006-10 to `495cr. This segment derives around 80% of its revenues from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) program. The US had committed funds to the tune of US $18.8bn for the PEPFAR program during FY2004-08. In FY2009, the relief was increased to US $6.6bn and maintained at US $6.7bn in FY2010. Overall expenditure on the ARV drugs increased from US $117mn in FY2005 to US $203mn in FY2008, registering a CAGR of 20%. Meanwhile, the amount spent on generic ARV increased from 9.2% in FY2005 to 76.4% in FY2008.

APL is one of the largest generic suppliers under the ARV contracts with 35% market share. APL enjoys high market share as it is fully integrated in all its products apart from having a larger product basket. Overall, we expect the ARV segment to post CAGR of 11.1% over FY2010-12 to `612cr with the PEPFAR allocation for generic ARVs expected to increase.

Exhibit 14: ARV sales trend


48 76120

13 35 58121

145

192

268

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

100

200

300

400

500


Pfizer Ex-Pfizer % of Sales

(US

$m

n)

(%)

86122

404464

495549

612

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700


ARV % of Sales

(` c

r)

(%)

APL is one of the largest genericsuppliers under the PEPFAR contractswith 35% market share


October 18, 2010 10

Europe and RoW growing at steady pace

In Europe, APL has been developing its presence through licensing agreements with the MNC’s and other generic players. In the UK, Netherland and Italy, APL has a direct presence. The company is now targeting newer geographies, viz. Romania, Spain, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. During FY2006-10, the company’s EU business registered CAGR of 51.6% to `237cr.

We expect EU to register CAGR of around 21.0% over FY2010-12 to `348cr driven by product launches and the Pfizer contract. We expect the Pfizer contract to scale up significantly from `2cr in FY2010 to `63cr in FY2012. Excluding Pfizer, we expect overall sales to grow by 10.0% to `285cr in FY2012.

Exhibit 15: EU sales trend


Over FY2006-10, RoW registered CAGR of 26.2%. In FY2010, RoW contributed 6.1% to the company’s net sales to `207cr. We expect revenues from the RoW to post a CAGR of 19.1% to `294cr over FY2010-12 and expect the AstraZeneca contract to contribute Rs23cr in FY2012.

Exhibit 16: RoW sales trend


2 186345

128201 198

235247

285

0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

0

100

200

300

400


Pfizer Ex-Pfizer % of Sales

(` c

r)

(%)

182382

288

158198 207 225

253

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

0

100

200

300

400


Pfizer AstraZeneca Ex-Pfizer/Astra % of Sales

(` c

r)

(%)

We expect EU to register CAGR ofaround 21.0% over FY2010-12 to`348cr driven by product launches andthe Pfizer contract

We expect revenues from the RoW topost a CAGR of 19.1% to `294cr overFY2010-12 and expect the AstraZenecacontract to contribute Rs23cr in FY2012


October 18, 2010 11

API segment to remain subdued

APL is one of the largest players in the API space, which contributed around 45% to its FY2010 sales with supply of SSP (oral and sterile), Cephs (oral and sterile) and other APIs having predominant exposure in its domestic segment.

APL registered a decline of 5.2% in oral (SSP and Cephs) APIs over FY2006-10 due to price volatility. The company’s API segment is vulnerable to Pen-G prices as it is the basic input for API. Hence, to protect its margins, APL shifted to sterile API products and is now also using most of the API for internal consumption.

Going ahead, we expect the API segment revenues to remain flat to `1,575cr over FY2010-12 as the company would use most of the API for internal consumption.

Exhibit 17: API sales break-up (` cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

SSP (Oral) 586 591 673 550 449 421 391

Growth (%) 1.0 13.8 (18.3) (16.8) (8.0) (7.0)

SSP (Sterile) - - 131 174 158 156 159

Growth (%) 32.2 (9.2) (1.0) 2.0

Cephs (Oral) 484 643 393 422 405 417 413

Growth (%) 32.7 (38.8) 7.3 (4.0) 3.0 (1.0)

Cephs (Sterile) - - 199 212 274 277 287

Growth (%) 6.6 29.5 0.9 3.7

ARV & other high value 355 296 152 271 307 310 325

Growth (%) (16.5) (48.8) 78.9 13.3 0.9 4.7

Total 1,425 1,530 1,548 1,628 1,593 1,581 1,575

Growth (%) 7.4 1.1 5.2 (1.6) (0.8) (0.4)


CRAMS a long term driver

APL launched its CRAMS division, AuroSource, to cater to the global innovators and biotech players. The division offers services across the entire product life cycle from pre-clinical to the commercial launch. APL is already in discussion with few players though we have not factored in any upsides from the business in our estimates.

We expect the API segment revenues toremain flat to `1,575cr over FY2010-12as the company would use most of theAPI for internal consumption


October 18, 2010 12

Financials

Top-line to register 15.6% CAGR over FY2010-12E

APL recorded 20.5% CAGR in net sales during FY2006-10 to `3,370cr driven by the formulation segments. Overall contribution of the formulation segment increased from 17.0% in 2006 to 55.0% in FY2010 primarily led by the US and ARV contracts. During FY2006-10, while sales in the US posted a CAGR of 99.2% to `912cr driven by product launches and commencement of supplies to Pfizer, ARV formulation sales logged 54.9% CAGR over on the back of the contract wins under the PEPFAR project. The API segment however, recorded sluggish CAGR of 3.0% as the increase in volumes was offset by lower price realisations during the period.

Exhibit 18: Increasing contribution from formulations


For FY2011, we expect net sales to grow at a slower pace of 12.7% to `3,796cr due to capacity constraints (NPNC) - the new facilities at the Unit VII (SEZ) and NJ are expected to scale up gradually. We expect the formulation segment to clock 22.7% yoy growth to `2,273cr, while the API segment is expected to decline by 1.3% to `1,581cr.

In the US region, the formulation segment is expected to clock 35.3% yoy growth to `1,234cr driven by the off-take under the Pfizer contract primarily in 2HFY2011 and launch of new products (SSP and Ceph injectable products). In Europe, we expect net sales to come in at `265cr, up 11.5%, while the RoW is expected to register 8.7% yoy growth to `225cr on the back of product launches. The ARV segment is expected to clock 10.8% yoy growth to `549cr as contribution from PEPFAR contract increases.

For FY2012, we expect net sales to clock strong growth of 18.7% to `4,506cr on the back of increase in capacity utilisation at its new facilities. Formulation sales are expected to register 32.0% yoy growth to `3,000cr while the API segment is expected to remain flat at `1,575cr.

8367

59 52 45 40 33

1733

41 48 55 60 67

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


API Formulations

Overall contribution of the formulationsegment increased from 17.0% in 2006to 55.0% in FY2010


October 18, 2010 13

In the US, under the Pfizer contract we expect APL to clock sales of `540cr following the increase in product launches. Further, ex-Pfizer sales in the US is expected to grow 36.3% yoy to `1,206cr and is likely to witness improvement in revenue per product. For EU we expect revenues to grow at 31.4% to `348cr, while RoW is expected to clock net sales of `294cr following commencement of supplies under the Pfizer and AstraZeneca contracts. On the ARV front, we expect growth of 11.5% in revenues to `612cr. Overall, we expect net sales to log a CAGR of 15.6% over FY2010-12 to `4,506cr driven by the supply agreements, US (ex Pfizer) region and ARV contracts.

Exhibit 19: Sales break-up (` cr) FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E CAGR FY2010-12E

Formulations 271 694 999 1,397 1,852 2,273 3,000 27.3

US 58 156 236 537 912 1,234 1,746 38.3

Pfizer - - - 13 225 349 540 54.9

Ex-Pfizer 58 156 236 524 687 885 1,206 32.5

Europe 45 128 201 198 237 265 348 21.0

Pfizer - - - - 2 18 63 461.2

Ex-Pfizer 45 128 201 198 235 247 285 10.0

RoW 82 288 158 198 207 225 294 19.1

Pfizer - - - - - - 18 -

Astra - - - - - - 23 -

Ex-Pfizer, Astra 82 288 158 198 207 225 253 10.6

ARV 86 122 404 464 495 549 612 11.1

API 1,425 1,531 1,548 1,628 1,593 1,581 1,575 (0.6)

SSP 586 591 804 723 607 577 550 (4.8)

Cephalosporin 484 643 592 634 679 694 700 1.5

ARV & other high value 355 296 152 271 307 310 325 2.8

Gross Sales 1,696 2,224 2,547 3,025 3,446 3,854 4,575 15.2

Less Excise duty 95 102 117 90 76 58 69 Net Sales 1,601 2,122 2,430 2,935 3,370 3,796 4,506 15.6

Growth (%) 32.6 14.5 20.8 14.8 12.7 18.7


Margin expansion to be driven by increasing contribution from formulations

APL has been able to expand its OPM (excluding other operating income) from 11.1% in FY2006 to 18.3% in FY2010 and is now on par with the sector average in spite of higher contribution from the low-margin API segment. The company’s gross margins improved significantly by 12.1% over FY2006-10 to 47.3% on the back of increasing contribution from the high-margin formulation segment. However, the increase in gross margins was partly offset by the rise in SG&A and employee expenses, which restricted the increase in OPM by 7.2% to 18.3% in FY2010. APL increased its employee strength by 16% in FY2010 with the commencement of its new facilities and expansion at its API facilities.

Overall, we expect net sales to post aCAGR of 15.6% over FY2010-12 to`4,506cr driven by the supplyagreements, US (ex Pfizer) region andARV contracts

APL has been able to expand its OPM(excluding other OI) from 11.1% inFY2006 to 18.3% in FY2010


October 18, 2010 14

Going ahead, increase in contribution from formulations to 67% in FY2012 from 55% in FY2010 and gradual scale up in capacity utilisation at its new facilities are likely to increase its OPM to 20.4% in FY2012 from 18.3% in FY2010.

On a comparative basis, APL’s OPM would be on par with the sector average. This is on back of backward integration on the formulation front. Overall, the transformation to formulation player has benefited APL in dual ways - most of the API is now utilized for internal consumption (more than 90% of its formulation is backward integrated) thereby making it cost competitive in the formulation space as well as insulating the company from the high price volatility (seen especially between 2008-09 where gains of the formulation business was offset by price volatility on the API front) witnessed on the API business. Further, APL does not have a significant presence in the branded generic segment (including India) owing to which its expenditure for sales promotion and advertisements are on the lower side.

Exhibit 20: OPM comparison (FY2012)

Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: Ranbaxy’s base business OPM considered.

Recurring PAT (ex other OI) to increase by 29.1% CAGR over FY2010-12

Recurring PAT (ex other OI) registered CAGR of 46.0% to `304cr during FY2006-10 driven by sales growth and margin expansion.

Going ahead, interest expense is expected to rise as the company raises debt to repay the FCCBs (including premium) to the tune of `938cr in May 2011. We estimate interest expense to increase from `73cr to `91cr in FY2012. Depreciation cost is also expected to increase from `149cr in FY2010 to `208cr in FY2012 due to the new facilities (Unit VII (SEZ), NJ and Trident).

In the last two years (FY2009 and FY2010), the company clocked other OI of `142cr and `206cr on the back of sale of dossiers to Europe and under the Pfizer contract, which has resulted in strong cash flows for the company. On a conservative basis, we expect the company to clock dossier income of `140cr both in FY2011 and FY2012 primarily from the supply agreements.

33.5

21.5 21.0 20.4 19.5 19.4

7.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Sun Pharma

Cipla Cadila Healthcare

APL Lupin Dr Reddy's Ranbaxy

(%)

Overall, the transformation to aformulation player has benefited APL indual ways - most of the API is nowutilised for internal consumption makingit cost competitive as well as insulatingthe company from the high pricevolatility witnessed in the API business


October 18, 2010 15

Overall, we expect recurring PAT to increase by 16.6% to `617cr assuming lower income from the sale of dossiers. Excluding the dossier income, recurring PAT is estimated to record strong CAGR of 29.1% to `506cr in FY2012.

Exhibit 21: Other operating income and Recurring PAT (ex other OI)


Capex spend to moderate

The company has been on an aggressive capex spree in the last five years incurring capex of `1,721cr (73% of FY2010 fixed assets), which was largely spent on the formulation segment.

However, capacity utilisation has been subdued especially in tablets/capsules at 46% in FY2010 primarily due to lower utilisation at the Unit VIB (Cephs) and Unit XII (SSP). However, going ahead, we expect the utilisation to increase at these facilities on the back of injectable product launches in the US and pick up in volume under the supply agreements.

Exhibit 22: Formulation facilities Units Product Capacity Utilisation (%)

Unit VIB Cephs oral & sterile < 25

Unit XII SSP oral and sterile <25

Unit III NPNC > 85

Unit VII (SEZ) NPNC Newly commenced

USA NJ NPNC Newly commenced

Trident Injectables (NPNC) To commence in 2HFY2012


Further, to address the capacity constraint in Unit III (NPNC), APL built a facility near Hyderabad (Unit VII SEZ) in FY2010. APL spent around `250cr to set up this facility, which is spread across 10 acres of the total 75 acres land. The unit has the capacity to produce to 1,000mn tablets and 100mn capsules per month, which has almost doubled the company’s tablets/capsules production. The company expects the unit to meet the increasing demand in the regulated markets and emerging markets.

3 13 11

142

206

140 140

3.46.4

3.6

44.2

31.9

22.6 17.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY2006 FY2008 FY2010 FY2012E

Other Op Income % of PBT

(` c

r)

(%)

67

189230

169

304355

506

0

200

400

600

FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012ERecurring PAT

(` c

r)

Excluding the dossier income, recurringPAT is estimated to record strong CAGRof 29.1% to `506cr in FY2012

APL has been on aggressive capexspree in the last five years with capex of`1,721cr

To address capacity constraints on theNPNC front, APL commercialised UnitVII (SEZ) in FY2010


October 18, 2010 16

APL has also commercialised its NJ facility, which it acquired from Sandoz in 2006. Through this facility APL is targeting the institutional business in the US. It is necessary to have a local production unit to run the institutional business. APL has begun filings of controlled substances from the unit, which is expected to contribute from FY2013 onwards. Overall, we expect Unit VII SEZ and the NJ facility to scale up and witness ramp up in capacity utilisation in FY2012 driven by supply agreements, US and ARV segment leading to an improvement in margins.

Thus, with most of the facilities in place, we expect APL to incur moderate capex of `568cr over the next two years.

Debt concerns receding

In view of APL’s aggressive capex, its net debt/equity increased to 1.8x in FY2009, which was much higher than the industry average of 0.4x. However, in FY2010, with overall improvement in business profitability (OPM expansion), the company’s net debt/equity improved to 1.1x. Going ahead, in FY2012, we expect net debt/equity to further improve to 0.6x on the back of debt repayments, decline in capex and improvement in profitability.

APL has outstanding FCCB of US $139.2mn repayable in May 2011 with the conversion price at 25-43% premium over the current price. We expect APL to repay its outstanding FCCBs through internal accruals and debt resulting in outflow of `938cr.

Exhibit 23: FCCB details

Maturity Date Issued

(US$ mn) Converted/

Bought back O/s US

$mn YTM

(%) Exch Rate (`/US $)

Amt Payable (` cr)

Breakeven price (`)

August 8, 2010 60.0 60.0 - 40.0 - - -

May 10, 2011 150.0 43.8 106.2 46.3 46.0 715 1,615

May 17, 2011 50.0 17.0 33.0 46.9 46.0 223 1,406

Total 260.0 120.8 139.2 938


Exhibit 24: Debt levels, FCF and Capex


1,373

2,078 1,9082,333 2,155 2,004

1,766

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

FY2006 FY2008 FY2010 FY2012EDebt Net Debt Equity

(x)

(` c

r)

(237)(326)

(48)

(343)

29

247 198 253

345244

479400

288 280

(450)

(300)

(150)

0

150

300

450

600


FCF Capex

(` c

r)


October 18, 2010 17

Concerns

Delay in ramp up of supply agreements: APL is expected to receive 14.3% of its FY2012 revenues from the supply agreements (Pfizer and AstraZeneca). Hence, any delay in ramp up of the supply agreements would pose a downside risk to our estimates.

Forex risks: Exports constitute 61% of the company revenues. Therefore, any significant appreciation in the rupee could adversely affect the company's margins. However, more than 80% of the company’s debt is foreign currency denominated providing a natural hedge against currency volatility.

High price volatility in the API business: Higher-than-anticipated price erosion in the company's generic API business, could impact its profitability. In FY2008-09, OPMs were flat in spite of higher contribution from the high-margin formulation business as the gains were offset by the price volatility in the API business. However, with formulation contribution to net sales increasing to 67% in FY2012 and reducing dependence on Pen-G related APIs, which should cushion the company’s margins going ahead.


October 18, 2010 18

Company Background

APL, one of the largest API manufacturers in Asia, was incorporated in 1989 by P V Ramaprasad Reddy and K Nityananda Reddy. APL is now present across the value chain from intermediates, API and formulations supported by a strong R&D team. APL has commercialised over 200 APIs and 300 formulation products till date. Over the years, the company has developed its presence in key therapeutic areas such as SSPs, Cephs, Anti-virals, CNS, CVS, gastroenterology, pain management, etc. Being an integrated player, the company enjoys an edge over competition.

The company has 15 manufacturing facilities across the globe approved by the US FDA and other regulators. APL has presence in more than 100 countries and derives more than 60% of its revenues from exports.

Exhibit 25: Facilities Formulations Unit Products

Unit III Multi-purpose non-Betalactums Oral

Unit VII (SEZ) Non-Betallactums Oral

USA NJ Non-Betallactums Oral

Unit VIB Cephalosporins (Oral & Sterile)

Unit XII Semi-synthetic penicillins (SSP) oral and sterile

API Units Products

Unit I CVS, CNS, Anti-allergic

Unit IA Cephalosporins (Non-Sterile)

Unit V Semi-synthetic penicillins (sterile and Non sterile)

Unit VIA Cephalosporins (Sterile)

Unit VIII Gastro enterologicals, Anti-retroviral

Unit XIB Anti-retroviral



October 18, 2010 19

Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Net Sales 2,122 2,430 2,935 3,370 3,796 4,506

Other operating income 13 11 142 206 140 140

Total operating income 2,135 2,441 3,077 3,575 3,936 4,646

% chg 670.9 14.3 26.1 16.2 10.1 18.0

Total Expenditure 1,821 2,089 2,561 2,752 3,089 3,588

Net Raw Materials 1,300 1,412 1,680 1,777 1,932 2,178

Other Mfg costs 206 267 301 338 406 473

Personnel 150 193 244 327 414 533

Other 164 217 336 310 336 403

EBITDA 301 341 374 617 707 919

% chg 70.2 13.2 9.6 65.1 14.6 29.9

(% of Net Sales) 14.2 14.0 12.7 18.3 18.6 20.4

Depreciation& Amortisation 100 100 128 149 187 208

EBIT 202 241 246 468 520 710

% chg 284.4 19.3 2.3 90.0 11.2 36.5

(% of Net Sales) 9.5 9.9 8.4 13.9 13.7 15.8

Interest & other Charges 86 69 93 73 74 91

Other Income 77 110 27 44 34 43

(% of PBT) 37.5 37.6 - 6.9 5.5 5.3

Share in profit of Associates - 0.0 0.0 - - -

Recurring PBT 206 292 323 645 620 802

% chg 170.7 41.8 10.5 100.0 (3.8) 29.4

Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - 201.0 (109.5) (13.9) -

PBT (reported) 206 292 122 754 634 802

Tax 4.4 53.6 21.4 191.4 155.0 185.7

(% of PBT) 2.1 18.4 17.6 25.4 24.4 23.1

PAT (reported) 201 238 100 563 479 617

Less: Minority interest (MI) 1 (0) - (0) - -

PAT after MI (reported) 200 239 100 563 479 617

ADJ. PAT 200 239 301 454 465 617

% chg 292.7 19.1 26.3 50.7 2.5 32.6

(% of Net Sales) 9.4 9.8 3.4 16.7 12.6 13.7

Basic EPS (`) 37.7 44.4 18.6 101.1 84.9 109.2

Adj Fully Diluted EPS (`) 37.7 44.4 56.0 81.5 82.4 109.2

% chg 409.2 17.8 26.3 45.4 1.1 32.6


October 18, 2010 20

Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 27 27 27 28 28 28

Share Application Money - - - - - -

Reserves& Surplus 859 1,097 1,214 1,801 2,248 2,821

Shareholders’ Funds 886 1,124 1,241 1,829 2,276 2,849

Minority Interest 4 3 3 4 4 4

Total Loans 2,078 1,908 2,333 2,155 2,004 1,766

Deferred Tax Liability 68 73 77 91 116 133

Total Liabilities 3,036 3,109 3,654 4,079 4,400 4,753

APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 1,414 1,601 1,869 2,312 2,850 3,280

Less: Acc. Depreciation 316 418 575 697 884 1,092

Net Block 1,099 1,184 1,294 1,615 1,966 2,188

Capital Work-in-Progress 219 278 536 570 320 170

Goodwill 54 53 105 96 96 96

Investments 0 60 0 0 0 0

Current Assets 2,135 2,059 2,289 2,506 2,882 3,384

Cash 582 283 128 73 151 68

Loans & Advances 272 316 394 375 562 640

Other 1,281 1,460 1,767 2,058 2,169 2,676

Current liabilities 471 526 570 708 864 1,085

Net Current Assets 1,664 1,534 1,719 1,798 2,018 2,299

Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

Total Assets 3,036 3,109 3,654 4,079 4,400 4,753


October 18, 2010 21

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Profit before tax 206 292 73 752 620 802

Depreciation 100 100 128 149 187 208

(Inc)/Dec in Working Capital (267) (91) (334) (261) (142) (364)

Less: Other income (83) (49) (180) 44 34 43

Direct taxes paid (23) (46) (30) (153) (130) (169)

Cash Flow from Operations 99 305 16 443 501 435

(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (345) (244) (479) (400) (288) (280)

(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (205) 113 48 (9) - -

Other income (83) (49) (180) 44 34 43

Cash Flow from Investing (633) (181) (611) (365) (254) (237)

Issue of Equity 3 2 - 5 0 -

Inc./(Dec.) in loans 791 (141) 287 (1) (137) (238)

Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (9) (16) (39) (29) (33) (43)

Others 130 (268) 193 (109) - -

Cash Flow from Financing 915 (423) 440 (132) (169) (281)

Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 381 (300) (155) (54) 78 (83)

Opening Cash balances 202 582 283 128 73 151

Closing Cash balances 582 283 128 73 151 68


October 18, 2010 22

Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E

Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 29.7 25.2 20.0 13.7 13.6 10.3

P/CEPS 19.9 17.8 26.4 8.8 9.5 7.7

P/BV 6.7 5.4 4.9 3.4 2.8 2.2

Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6

EV/Sales 3.5 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.8

EV/EBITDA 24.8 22.4 22.0 13.5 11.6 8.7

EV / Total Assets 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.7

Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 37.7 44.4 18.6 101.1 84.9 109.2

EPS (fully diluted) 37.7 44.4 56.0 81.5 82.4 109.2

Cash EPS 56.2 63.0 42.4 127.9 118.0 146.1

DPS 2.5 3.3 4.5 5.0 4.9 6.6

Book Value 166.1 209.1 230.9 328.3 403.1 504.7

Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 9.5 9.9 8.4 13.9 13.7 15.8

Tax retention ratio 97.9 81.6 82.4 74.6 75.6 76.9

Asset turnover (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0

ROIC (Post-tax) 8.9 7.5 6.7 9.8 9.9 12.6

Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.9 2.8 3.6 2.4 2.7 3.7

Leverage (x) 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.7

Operating ROE 12.7 14.7 11.7 20.6 16.9 18.9

Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 7.7 7.8 7.3 12.1 12.3 15.5

Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 10.1 10.3 9.2 15.0 14.5 17.2

ROE 23.5 23.7 25.5 29.6 22.7 24.1

Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5

Inventory / Sales (days) 96 108 99 101 102 98

Receivables (days) 103 97 92 94 94 92

Payables (days) 81 78 70 74 70 67

WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 203 174 169 169 167 161

Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.6

Net debt to EBITDA 5.0 4.8 5.9 3.4 2.6 1.8

Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 2.3 3.5 2.6 6.4 7.0 7.8


October 18, 2010 23

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement Aurobindo Pharma 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)


October 18, 2010 24

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Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

aurobindo pharma

Economy & Finance

x fy2012e eps

evsales x

evebitda x

fy2012e income

supply agreements

aurobindo pharma apl

operating income

net profit