australian international education conference -...

1Australian International Education Conference 2010

www.aiec.idp.com

1

Australian International Education Conference

Advice to Government on Skilled Occupation List

14 October 2010

Robin Shreeve

Chief Executive Officer, Skills Australia

Skills Australia: independent advisory body - current and future skills needs

Source:1 Julia Gillard, Second Reading Speech - Skills Australia Bill 2008 (14 Feb 2008)

► Professor Gerald Burke

► Dr Michael Keating AC

► Sharan Burrow

► Philip Bullock - Chair

► Marie Persson

► Heather Ridout

► Keith Spence

Skills Australia will provide the Government with recommendations on current and

future skills needs (and) inform Australia’s workforce development needs … 1

2


www.aiec.idp.com

3

Why have an Australian Workforce Development Strategy?

Productivity

Sustainability

Participation

Social

inclusion

How can we best ensure Australia has the

workforce capability required for a

productive, sustainable and inclusive future?

4

Future skills needs challenges

Baby boomers retiring: an ageing workforce


www.aiec.idp.com

5

Population growth: international perspectives

Source:Developing 21st Century Skills: New Strategies for New Times – Presentation by Professor David Finegold (Dean of School of Management and Labour Relations, Rutgers University, New Jersey) May 2010.

5

China – first nation to become

old before it becomes rich

India: reverse population

pyramid

6

Process for development of the National Workforce Development Strategy

Australian Workforce Development Strategy

Workforce and

education

trends

Modelling and

projections

Planning for an

uncertain future

3 Scenarios(Shell Group)

Analysis

historic data

Workforce Futures - Overview and background papers

Where are we headed?

Where do we want to be?

How do we get there?

Access

Economics

Consultation with industry, providers, states/territories and peak bodies


www.aiec.idp.com

77

Possible futures: workforce growth to 2025Access Economics modelling

Projected total employment growth rates 1

1. Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

Number of

people in the

Australian

workforce in

2025 (based on

the three

scenarios):

Open Doors:

15.3 million

Low Trust

Globalisation:

13.7 million

Flags:

12.5 million

Current :

10.7 million

8

Workforce participation levels need to rise

Australia

Comparison of OECD countries: people aged 15+

Source:1 OECD, Online OECD employment data base statistics for 2008, people aged 15 and over (accessed Feb 2010)

Groups to target

► Men of prime working age (25 to 64 years) --- 10th lowest of OECD countries

► Women (aged 25 to 34 years) --- 10th lowest of OECD countries

► Older Australians (55 to 64) --- below NZ, Canada and the US

8


www.aiec.idp.com

9

Supply and demandAccess Economics modelling

THE THREE SCENARIOS

Open Doors Low-trust Globalisation

Flags

By 2015 Demand 770 000 Demand 646 000 Demand 540 000

Supply 533 000 Supply 524 000 Supply 506 000

BALANCE -237 000 BALANCE -122 000 BALANCE - 34 000

By 2025 Demand 828 000 Demand 645 000 Demand 500 000

Supply 659 000 Supply 620 000 Supply 556 000

BALANCE -169 000 BALANCE -25 000 BALANCE +56 000

The projected supply of students less the projected labour

market demand 1

Skilled migration plays a significant role in supplementing the supply of

qualifications, and if domestic supply remains at current levels, these

deficits may be made up through Australia’s skilled migrant intake.

Source:1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)

10

Industry Open Doors

Transport, postal and warehousing 3.1%

Professional, scientific & technical services 3.1%

Health care and social assistance 2.9%

Education and training 2.2%

Construction 1.8%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 1.1%

Mining 1.0%

Manufacturing 0%

All industries

15 year average 2.1 %

Projected growth: selected industriesAccess Economics modelling

Average annual employment growth 2010 to 2025 1

Source:1 Access Economics Pty Ltd for Skills Australia, Economic modelling of skills demand (Oct 2009)


www.aiec.idp.com

11

Modeling findings

A shortfall in the supply of higher qualifications –

most pronounced in 2015, reducing by 2025.

Relatively weak demand for Certificate III and IV

under each scenario and strong demand for

graduates at bachelor level.

Skilled migration can help meet demand for

qualifications.

Key findings & Recommendations

► The current capacity of our tertiary education system will need to increase

by 3% p.a, to deliver the qualifications and skills Australia needs.

► Numeracy and literacy are a major barrier to increased participation and a

national plan with targets and funding is needed.

► Workforce participation needs to rise from 65% to 69% to provide the

workers and skills we need plus improve social inclusion.

► A collaborative approach between government and industry to build

adaptive capacity in the workforce - agreement national Workforce

Development strategy.

► The recommendations such as making better use

of the skills, planning for specialised

occupations and the tertiary education

workforce may best form part of the future agenda

or dealt with through other fora.

12


www.aiec.idp.com

13

Planning for ‘specialised occupations’

► We cannot plan for everything … we need to adopt

a targeted, focused approach

► Skills Australia has found that the labour market is

effective in meeting skills needs but there are

particular ‘specialised’ occupations where

intervention is required

► A common planning framework and an ongoing

collaborative effort involving Skills Australia, the

Department of Education, Employment and

Workplace Relations, the states and territories,

industry, education providers and Industry Skills

Councils

14

Initial education or

training becomes less

relevant over time

‘Matching’ skills and jobs in fluid labour

markets?

People may not seek

or find careers in their

field of learning

Skills are more than

qualifications

40% end up in jobs which

match their VET study

45% workers change

jobs every three years

Importance of generic,

cognitive and

interpersonal skills in a

service-based economy


www.aiec.idp.com

15

Specialised occupations criteria

► Long lead time – those skills which are highly specialised

and require extended learning and preparation time► 4 years or more for HE courses; 3 years or more to achieve VET

qualification

► High use – those skills which are deployed for the uses

intended (that is, there is a good occupational ‘fit’)► There is a more than 50% match between the training and the

destination occupation

► Significant disruption – where the opportunity cost of the

skills being in short supply is high (eg registered nurse or doctor)

► High information – where the quality of information about

the occupation is adequate

16

Skills needs – concepts and definitions

► Skills shortages – when demand for workers for a particular

occupation is greater than the supply of workers who are qualified,

available and willing to work under existing market conditions

► Recruitment difficulty – where a business finds it difficult to fill a

specific vacancy, even though there is not an identified broader

skill shortage. This may be due to the characteristics of the

business, the location or the skill set required for the position

► Skills gap - occurs when existing staff do not have the skills

required for the positions they occupy


www.aiec.idp.com

17

Employer Nomination Scheme (employer)

Regional Sponsored Migration Scheme (Govt)

Business Skills (Self)

Not points testedCapped (dependents count towards cap)

May be onshore or offshore

Priority processing

Skilled Independent

Points testedCapped (dependents count towards cap)


Order of processing priority: CSL,MODL and Remaining applicants

Skilled Graduate

Not points testedUncapped

Onshore only

Temporary long-stay business

Not points testedUncapped


The broad categories of skilled migration in Australia

Sponsored Not Sponsored

Pe

rman

en

t R

esi

de

nce

Tem

po

rary

Re

sid

en

ceFour broad categories of skilled migration

Source:

Presentation by DIAC to the CEET conference, Melbourne, 30 October 2009

18

The new Skilled Occupation List (SOL)

Migration Occupations in Demand List

(MODL)

+

Interim Critical Skills List

+

Current Skilled Occupation List (SOL)


www.aiec.idp.com

19

The process for developing the SOL

► Based on a workforce development approach and the

concept of ‘specialised occupations’

► Addressing future skills needs for Australia

► Analysis of labour market data, education data and

migration data

► Not all specialised occupations on the new SOL

► Final decision of SOL rests with Commonwealth

Government

20

‘Specialised Occupations’ not on the SOL

► Likely to be in surplus in medium to long term (Primary School

Teacher, Dietician)

► Other more appropriate and specific migration options

(Specialist Commodity Trader)

► Australian citizen requirement (Judge)

► Course of study not sufficiently skilled (Financial Broker,

Master Fisher)

► Niche occupation (Blacksmith, Farrier, Engraver)


www.aiec.idp.com

21

22


www.aiec.idp.com

23

Annual Review of SOL24

► Skills Australia to review Skilled Occupation List

annually and provide advice to Government

► Future reviews will also analyse labour market data

and consult with stakeholders

► Consultation with stakeholders

► Industry Peak Bodies

► Professional Associations

► Government

► Education and training providers

► Next review of SOL in November/December 2010


www.aiec.idp.com

25

Australian International Education Conference

Thank you

Robin Shreeve

Chief Executive Officer, Skills Australia

australian international education conference -...

Documents