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Australian rangelands and climate change – fire

Citation Bastin G (2014) Australian rangelands and climate change – fire. Ninti One Limited and CSIRO, Alice Springs.

Copyright © Ninti One Limited 2014. Information contained in this publication may be copied or reproduced for study, research, information or educational purposes, subject to inclusion of an acknowledgement of the source.

Disclaimer The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth of Australia, and the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for any information or advice contained herein.

ISBN: 978-1-74158-248-2

Front cover image credit: Libby Kartzoff, fire at the Alice Springs Desert Park

Australian rangelands and climate change – fire 2

Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................................... 3

Key points ................................................................................................................................................................... 4

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 5

2. Method ................................................................................................................................................................... 7

3. Data sources............................................................................................................................................................ 7

4. Findings ................................................................................................................................................................... 7

4.1 Regional fire statistics........................................................................................................................................ 7

4.1.1 Extent ...................................................................................................................................................... 7

4.1.2 Frequency .............................................................................................................................................. 10

5. Rangeland fire and climate change ........................................................................................................................ 10

6. Adaptation strategies ............................................................................................................................................ 11

Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................................................ 17

Glossary .................................................................................................................................................................... 18

References ................................................................................................................................................................ 20

List of Tables

Table 4.1 The average, minimum and maximum percentage areas of bioregions burnt within Rangelands Cluster NRM regions between 1997 and 2012. Data are adapted from burnt-area statistics supplied to ACRIS by WA Landgate. ......................................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Mean percentage area of bioregions (IBRA v7) in the rangelands burnt between 1997 and 2012. ................ 5 Figure 1.2 Cumulative rainfall within the Rangelands Cluster region for 2009–10 and 2010–11 (top) and area burnt in the following two years (bottom). .................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 4.1 Mean percentage area burnt between 1997 and 2012 in the Tanami bioregion of the NT Arid Lands sub-region and the Nullarbor bioregions in the WA Rangelands. ........................................................................ 9 Figure 4.2 Fire frequency for bioregions within the Rangelands Cluster region burnt between 1997 and 2012. The blue lines show NRM regions (or sub-regions). .......................................................................................... 10

Contents


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This project was funded by the Australian Government and was part of a collaboration between the Rangelands NRM Alliance, CSIRO, University of Canberra and Ninti One. Thanks to the following NRM regions for their review and input: Rangelands WA, Territory NRM, Alinytjara Wilurara NRM, SA Arid Lands NRM, Desert Channels Qld, South West NRM Qld and Western Local Lands Services. Thanks also to the members of the project’s Scientific Advisory Panel for their advice and guidance: Steve Morton, Craig James, Stephen van Leeuwin, Ian Watterson, Colleen O’Malley, Daryl Green and Digby Race.

Acknowledgements


• We anticipate that fire regimes in the Rangelands Cluster region will be modified by climate change in three main ways: – Although annual rainfall will continue to be

highly variable, a greater summer component may increase grass biomass and thereby fire risk, particularly following extended wetter periods.

– Warmer temperatures will extend the meteorological fire season and greatly increase fire danger following successive wetter years. Within the fire season, increased periods of very high temperature and low humidity will increase periods of potential very high fire danger. This may translate to widespread intense wildfire where fuel loads are sufficient, ignition occurs and there is limited capacity to implement prior strategic controlled burning and other fuel reduction practices to reduce this risk.

– The predicted continued spread and thickening of buffel grass will exacerbate this risk.

• Analysis of the recent fire record available from satellite-based fire-scar mapping can provide useful context for predicting what may occur under climate change. Here we use data supplied to the Australian Collaborative Rangelands Information System (ACRIS) by WA Landgate to describe the recent fire regime (extent and frequency) for bioregions within Rangelands Cluster NRM regions.

• Extensive wildfire is more common in the spinifex-dominant deserts and following two or more years of above average rainfall. This feature was last experienced in central Australia in 2011 and 2012.

• Buffel grass can greatly change the fire regime at local scale: it increases fuel loads, responds readily to fire disturbance and has the capacity to make local environments in which it thrives much more fire-prone.

Gary Bastin

CSIRO

Key points


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1. Introduction Fire is extensive and common in northern Australia, particularly the tropical savanna (Figure 1.1). In the Rangelands Cluster region, extensive fire is more common in the spinifex-dominant deserts and following two years of above average rainfall. This phenomenon was last seen in central Australia in 2011 and 2012 (Figure 1.2) and, prior to that, 2002 (see Figure 3.41 in Bastin and ACRIS Management Committee 2008, p. 72). Extensive wildfire also occurred in 1976 following the wet years of the mid-1970s.

The majority of fires in the arid and semi-arid rangelands do not re-burn country that was burnt in the previous year. Thus the pattern of fire shown in Figure 1.2 was complementary in 2011 and 2012, that is, concentrated in the central and southern NT in 2011 and in the western deserts (WA and part SA) in 2012.

Figure 1.1 Mean percentage area of bioregions (IBRA v7) in the rangelands burnt between 1997 and 2012.

Black and blue lines show IBRA and Rangelands Cluster NRM boundaries respectively. Source: Annual fire extent data were supplied to ACRIS by WA Landgate.


Figure 1.2 Cumulative rainfall within the Rangelands Cluster region for 2009–10 and 2010–11 (top) and area burnt in the following two years (bottom).

The paired maps (i.e. left and right) show, for the more arid rangelands, spatial correspondence between two-yearly cumulative rainfall and subsequent fire extent. Blue lines show NRM regions within the Rangelands Cluster.

Source: Maps produced from data held by ACRIS: fire data obtained from WA Landgate and rainfall data from the Bureau of Meteorology.


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2. Method Here, we briefly describe the recent fire history (1997–2012) for NRM regions in the Rangelands Cluster and comment on how this may alter with projected climate change.

3. Data sources Fire information presented here is based on data held by the Australian Collaborative Rangelands Information System (ACRIS). ACRIS, in turn, sourced fire data from the WA Land Information Authority (WA Landgate). This agency maps fire scars monthly across all of Australia as detected in NOAA AVHRR imagery (1.1 km x 1.1 km pixel resolution). The large pixel size means that small fires and some patchy burns may be missed, but the data are ideal for detecting large-scale fire patterns across very large areas.

Maps of past fires in northern Australia are also available from the North Australian Fire Information (NAFI) web site (http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi2/). These fire scars are mapped from 250 m MODIS imagery extending back to late 2000 and can be downloaded as monthly images (GeoTIFF) or shapefiles of burnt area.

We use the WA Landgate data for fire history because their mapping is national and for a slightly longer period (1997 compared to late 2000 for the MODIS record). The Landgate data for fire extent and frequency are also readily available within ACRIS.

Landgate has provided ACRIS with statistics on the monthly and annual extent of fire scars in each rangelands1 bioregion (IBRA v7, Department of the Environment n.d.) between 1997 and 2012. Fire frequency is a spatial averaging of the number of times an area (pixels in a satellite image) burnt over the 16 years between 1997 and 2012 (further detail in Appendix A). 1 The rangelands boundary as defined by ACRIS covers approximately 80% of Australia, including the savanna region (see Figure 1.3 in Bastin and ACRIS Management Committee 2008).

ACRIS reports fire history by bioregion (see www.environment.gov.au/resource/fire-product-update-2011-12 for the most recent information). Here, we adapt bioregion-level information on fire extent and frequency to the NRM regions within the Rangelands Cluster. We retain bioregions as the reporting unit because of the considerable variation in fire regime from north to south and between broadly different landscapes within larger NRM regions.

4. Findings 4.1 Regional fire statistics 4.1.1 Extent The average percentage area of bioregions burnt in each NRM region between 1997 and 2012 is listed in Table 4.1. The minimum and maximum percentage area burnt for each bioregion during the period is also listed; this serves to show the highly variable nature of fire in some regions. Figure 4.1 contrasts the mean percentage area burnt between 1997 and 2012 for a fire-prone region (the NT part of the Tanami bioregion) and a largely fire-protected bioregion (the Nullarbor in the WA Rangelands). Yearly percentages for other bioregions are listed in Appendix B – similar comparative graphs to that shown in Figure 4.1 can be constructed from these data.

Important features are:

• Fire is more extensive and common in northern desert country within the cluster region.

• Fire is largely absent in southern pastorally dominant bioregions and particularly those with lower total biomass and/or a significant chenopod component, that is, essentially less grass and therefore less flammable fuel.

• Fire follows substantial and extended periods of rainfall (as illustrated in Figure 1.2), but burnt areas do not burn again until sufficient grass has accumulated as fuel. This is probably a shorter period (5+ years) where spinifex readily regenerates in desert bioregions, although post-fire floristic changes such as the establishment of shrubby

http://www.firenorth.org.au/nafi2/

http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/fire-product-update-2011-12

http://www.environment.gov.au/resource/fire-product-update-2011-12


wattles in the Pilbara may alter the return period of the next fire. In mid-latitude pastoral bioregions (i.e. the northern part of the Rangelands Cluster) where native grasses dominate in the pasture, sufficient fuel for another fire may require >10 years – but is determined both by much above-average rainfall and grazing pressure.

• Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) can greatly change the fire regime at local scale, particularly in central Australia. It increases fuel loads, responds readily to fire disturbance and has the capacity to make local environments in which it thrives much more fire-prone. There is insufficient evidence yet at regional scale, but the continued spread and thickening of buffel grass may mean that less rainfall, and maybe one wet year by itself, will generate sufficient fuel to considerably increase the risk of future extensive fire.

Table 4.1 The average, minimum and maximum percentage areas of bioregions burnt within Rangelands Cluster NRM regions between 1997 and 2012. Data are adapted from burnt-area statistics supplied to ACRIS by WA Landgate.

BIOREGION FIRE EXTENT STATISTIC

MEAN (%)

MIN. (%)

MAX. (%)

NSW: Western

Brigalow Belt South 1.4 0.0 4.7

Broken Hill Complex 0.0 0.0 0.1

Channel Country 0.4 0.0 1.3

Cobar Peneplain 1 0.1 0.0 0.2

Mulga Lands 0.1 0.0 0.4

Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields

2.2 1.2 3.2

Queensland: South West NRM

Mulga Lands 0.3 0.0 2.2

Queensland: Desert Channels


Desert Uplands 1 3.6 0.1 21.1

Mitchell Grass Downs 0.4 0.0 1.8


MEAN (%)

MIN. (%)

MAX. (%)


14.2 2.4 52.4

SA: Arid Lands

Broken Hill Complex 0.2 0.2 0.2


Finke 7.9 0.0 23.3

Flinders Lofty Block 1 0.1 0.0 0.2

Gawler 0.1 0.0 0.3


2.8 0.0 8.9

Stony Plains 0.2 0.0 0.4

SA: Alinytjara Wilurara

Central Ranges 7.5 0.1 25.8

Great Victoria Desert 1.6 0.0 6.6

Nullarbor 2.0 0.1 3.4

NT: Arid Lands sub-region

Burt Plain 5.1 0.0 31.6



Finke 7.9 0.0 31.0

Great Sandy Desert 7.9 0.2 35.5

MacDonnell Ranges 6.0 0.0 34.9


9.4 0.0 63.6

Tanami 16.9 0.6 64.5

NT: Tablelands sub-region

Davenport Murchison Ranges

13.9 0.0 56.8

Mitchell Grass Downs 3.7 0.1 20.9

WA: Rangelands

Carnarvon 1.2 0.0 8.4


9


MEAN (%)

MIN. (%)

MAX. (%)


Coolgardie 1.4 0.0 5.3

Gascoyne 0.9 0.1 4.4

Gibson Desert 7.1 0.1 35.7

Great Sandy Desert 11.8 0.5 35.3

Great Victoria Desert 4.2 0.0 24.2

Hampton 0.6 0.1 1.2

Little Sandy Desert 5.5 0.1 38.1

Murchison 0.7 0.0 1.9

Nullarbor 1.4 0.0 11.3

Pilbara 8.5 1.1 25.8


MEAN (%)

MIN. (%)

MAX. (%)

Tanami 18.3 0.9 52.5

Yalgoo 0.2 0.0 0.7 1 Rangelands component of bioregion extends beyond the NRM region. Percentage area burnt may be influenced by the area outside the NRM region.

Figure 4.1 Mean percentage area burnt between 1997 and 2012 in the Tanami bioregion of the NT Arid Lands sub-region and the Nullarbor bioregions in the WA Rangelands.

Fire is much more extensive and recurrent in the northern desert country within the Rangelands Cluster.


4.1.2 Frequency Fire frequencies are reported as the average number of fire scars, per 1.1 km x 1.1 km pixel, across each bioregion between 1997 and 2012. The arithmetic procedure for calculating fire frequency is described in Appendix A.

Where extensive fire occurred in the Rangelands Cluster region between 1997 and 2012, most areas were burnt once or twice (on average) (Figure 4.2). Fire was most frequent in the Tanami, Davenport Murchison Ranges and Gulf Fall and Uplands regions of the NT and the Mount Isa Inlier area of north-west Queensland. Fire was slightly less frequent in the Pilbara and Great Sandy Desert. As noted before, fire is much more frequent in northern Australia where, for example, all of the Pine Creek and Daly Basin bioregions have burnt 7–8 times in the 16-year period (and parts of each region burn every year).

5. Rangeland fire and climate change There are four major biophysical factors that will contribute to any change in the future fire regime under climate change.

1. Rainfall variability is predicted to continue, although the winter component may decrease. A higher proportion of summer rainfall may increase grass biomass in the pasture and thereby increase potential fuel loads. However, continuing rainfall variability will likely mean that fuel accumulation sufficient to carry extensive wildfire will likely continue to require two (or more) years of above-average rainfall. This is particularly expected to be the case in pastoral bioregions, where varying levels of grazing intensity reduce fuel loads and their continuity in most years.

Figure 4.2 Fire frequency for bioregions within the Rangelands Cluster region burnt between 1997 and 2012. The blue lines show NRM regions (or sub-regions).

Source: Fire frequency data were supplied to ACRIS by WA Landgate.


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The ‘two-year rule’ may be modified in pastoral areas of central and northern parts of the cluster region where C4 grasses progressively replace C3 species in the pasture. Grasses with the C4

photosynthetic pathway grow more rapidly, accumulate greater biomass and are more flammable than C3 species. Increase in C4 grasses, including buffel grass, may mean that sufficient fuel accumulates to carry fire following one wet year.

Reduced winter rainfall and warmer temperatures throughout may see the present central Australian fire regime of decadal (plus) extensive fire move south into the northern parts of South Australia and the southern WA Rangelands.

2. Warmer temperatures will likely extend the length of the meteorological fire season and greatly increase fire danger following successive wetter years. This is more likely in the central and southern parts of the cluster region; fire risk in the north will continue to be associated with the northern monsoon and related to amount and timing of wet-season rainfall. The central Australian fire season may increase to cover the August to May period and expand by a month (or more) either side of the current summer period further south.

Conversely, these changes will reduce the window of opportunity to safely use fire for hazard reduction burning in the relatively cooler months. This, in turn, will necessitate enhanced logistical capacity (including mobility) to best utilise suitable times for the safe use of fire.

Increased periods of higher temperature and lower humidity will likely considerably increase periods of potential very high fire danger throughout the cluster region, and this may translate to extensive wildfire where fuel loads are sufficient, ignition occurs and there is limited capacity to implement prior strategic controlled burning and other fuel reduction practices to reduce wildfire risk.

3. At a more local scale, the continued spread and thickening of buffel grass can considerably change the fire regime. The distribution of buffel grass is likely to expand with climate change (see Scott 2014), and its colonising success and consequent

likely thickening will be facilitated by recurrent fire as a disturbance factor. Where dominant in the pasture, buffel grass will fuel hotter fires with potential intensity further increased by the increased likelihood of hotter and less humid days (and nights). Buffel grass and associated intense fires will probably continue to be a greater threat on non-pastoral land but, even here, it has the potential to increase fire risk in future wetter years.

4. Vegetation productivity (and hence fuel loads) is expected to increase due to the combined effects of trends in atmospheric CO2 (i.e. enrichment), rainfall and temperature on plant growth and shifts in species composition.

6. Adaptation strategies Required adaptation strategies will vary with NRM region and associated land use. Likely responses will include:

1. Learn from past experience in managing and controlling episodic extensive wildfire. Widespread fire will continue to follow wetter periods, so preparing for increased fire activity is essential. This likely means implementing more of current procedures: hazard reduction burning to break up extensive fuel loads, protecting fire-sensitive habitats and other high-value assets, etc.

Increased fire danger associated with hotter temperatures and reduced humidity may mean that larger areas burn following one wet year rather than successive years as is currently the case in much of central Australia. Fuel loads and flammability at such times may also increase with enhanced growth of C4 grasses due to atmospheric CO2 enrichment. Thus the extent and timeliness of controlled burning and other fuel reduction mechanisms will become more critical.

Regional knowledge and experience in managing extensive wildfire should be transportable. It is likely that the current appropriate fire management strategy for the southern NT will extend south into


much of northern SA, particularly the Alinytjara Wilurara NRM region, and the southern deserts of the WA Rangelands NRM region.

2. Use prescribed fire to maximise the area it can protect. There is evidence that fuel-reduction burning in southern Australian eucalypt forests protects about one quarter of the area burnt, whereas this increases to an equal area protected in the northern savanna (Bradstock et al. 2012). The leverage factor across the fire-prone vegetation types in the Rangelands Cluster region is unknown but could be similar to (or even greater than) that for savanna.

Local experience in prescription burning combined with temporal statistics of subsequent area burnt (derived from fire-scar mapping) should help to implement spatial and temporal burning patterns that maximise the leverage value of such programs.

3. Increased warming with associated lower humidity combined with continuing rainfall variability should present more frequent opportunities to use managed fire to control woody thickening (invasive native scrub) in pastoral country. This should be the case in parts of central Australia, south-western Queensland, western NSW, the Gascoyne–Murchison in the WA Rangelands and possibly parts of the Flinders Ranges (SA Arid Lands).

4. As highlighted above, continued spread and thickening of buffel grass will greatly alter the fire risk at a more local scale. Increased resources (labour and equipment) will be required to adequately protect vulnerable infrastructure and natural assets as this vegetation change occurs.


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The following notes and illustrations briefly describe how WA Landgate calculates fire frequency from mapped fire scars.

Assume that a 3 x 3 array of pixels and lines (below table) represents the area extending across a region. Burnt pixels were represented by the value ‘1’ and unburnt pixels by ‘0’. In the year 1999, two-thirds of the array was burnt, and in 2000 a little more than one-third was burnt. The fire frequency across the two years is calculated by summing pixel values.

Year 1999 Year 2000 Fire frequency

0 1 1

0 1 1

0 1 1

0 0 0

0 1 1

0 1 1

0 1 1

0 2 2

0 2 2

Two examples of calculating fire frequencies are presented.

In Example 1, the region is represented by four pixels within the solid line.

0 1 1

0 2 2

0 2 2

The average fire frequency for this example region is (2+2+2+2)/4 = 2.0

In Example 2, the region is represented by six pixels.

0 1 1

0 2 2

0 2 2

The average fire frequency for this region is (0+0+2+2+2+2)/6 = 1.3

Appendix A Calculating fire frequency


Appendix B Yearly percentage of bioregion burnt

The following table lists the percentage area of bioregions in Rangelands Cluster NRM regions burnt between 1997 and 2012. Data supplied to ACRIS by WA Landgate.

BIOREGION AREA (KM2)

PERCENTAGE OF BIOREGION AREA BURNT

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

NSW: Western Brigalow Belt South

3,630 4.73 0.97 0.01 0.12 1.08

Broken Hill Complex

37,665 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.02 0.05

Channel Country 23,355 0.43 0.06 0.03 0.61 0.29 0.22 1.34 Cobar Peneplain 37,037 0.22 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.01 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.15 0.1 Darling Riverine Plains

38,656 0.52 0 0.1 0.13 0.39 0.96 0.11 0.14 0.08 0.14 0.07

Mulga Lands 65,823 0 0.02 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.42 Murray Darling Depression

33,888 0.06 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.1 0.25


10,936 1.24 3.16

Queensland: South West NRM Brigalow Belt South

14,599 0.11 1.67 0.04 1.93 1.19 0.95 3.74 0.94 1.34 0.2 0.73 15.06 0.1 7.08 14.45

Mulga Lands 145,677 0.02 0.13 0.24 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.01 0.14 0.14 0.05 0.01 0.12 0.1 0.92 2.21 Queensland: Desert Channels Channel Country 189,998 0.02 0.36 0.7 0.34 0.13 0.21 0.09 0.02 0.03 7.6 1.37 Desert Uplands 42,146 2.83 2.88 1.88 3.06 5.25 0.07 0.14 0.32 0.74 0.11 1.1 4.94 6 1.85 21.12 5.05


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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mitchell Grass Downs

192,524 1.78 0.04 0.08 0.04 1.02 0.2 0.05 0.15 0.24 0.17 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.03 1.75 0.35

Mount Isa Inlier 26,296 1.1 6.48 4.42 2.17 19.11 2.41 1.11 3.32 0.86 13.74 5.46 3.4 1.35 5.79 19.88 21.73 Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields

26,219 2.35 7 4.43 52.41 4.6

SA: Arid Lands Broken Hill Complex

18,687 0.2

Channel Country 51,597 0.18 0.26 0.01 0.03 2.73 3 Finke 12,322 0 11.27 0.71 23.29 4.04 Flinders Lofty Block

38,661 0.09 0.02 0.15

Gawler 113,022 0 0.01 0 0.29 0.11 Simpson Strzelecki Dunefields

136,933 0.01 0.03 8.94 2.09

Stony Plains 129,597 0.39 0.04 0.14 0.05 SA: Alinytjara Wilurara Central Ranges 27,977 5.58 25.81 5.89 19.83 0.07 0.19 0.6 0.07 0.2 0.77 0.22 16.31 22.48 Great Victoria Desert

186,133 0.23 4.29 4.12 4.73 0.29 0.04 0.53 0.01 0.63 0.09 0 0.01 1.49 6.6

Nullarbor 55,603 2.24 3.39 0.07 1.8 2.38 NT: Arid Lands Burt Plain 73,797 0.1 0.02 0.3 2.42 26.43 8.08 0.17 1.8 0.22 1.63 4.72 0.06 0.08 0.31 31.56 3.93 Central Ranges 26,196 0.57 25.18 16.18 32.94 2.83 1.32 0.23 0.07 0.56 0.24 0.55 6.06 27.36 Channel Country 23,276 15.77 8.76 0 0.09 63.29 1.07 Finke 53,520 0.04 0.03 0.92 30.96 0.05 0.01 25.4 6.01 Great Sandy Desert

99,465 0.29 0.19 0.43 5.64 29.16 31.54 0.85 2.98 0.87 3.66 1.04 0.19 0.31 1.02 35.53 12.89

MacDonnell Ranges

39,294 0.01 0.01 0.24 4.71 20.08 0.41 0.03 0.02 0.02 34.9 5.64




1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


105,748 0.08 0.19 19.77 6.59 1.24 0.12 0.01 0.14 63.61 2.01

Sturt Plateau 16,946 7.93 13.25 41.44 20.21 62.55 26.99 18.25 63.65 2.08 31.66 42.8 10.95 39.27 8.61 37.25 43.27 Tanami 203,026 3.85 2.66 11.64 34.28 32.23 25.02 1.72 18.38 0.6 19.7 35.17 3.78 1.4 4.13 64.51 12.02 NT: Tablelands Davenport Murchison Ranges

49,654 0.85 1.62 0.89 30.7 48.63 9.37 2.66 16.85 0.04 10.35 19.04 4.77 0.49 4.41 56.8 15.22

Gulf Fall and Uplands

37,259 26.01 22.59 34.68 24.28 57.2 17.25 9.95 56.09 4.82 21.2 50.63 13.54 31.98 16.53 23.22 49.68

Mitchell Grass Downs

86,375 0.29 1.46 0.58 1.65 20.92 2.23 1.78 7.84 0.09 0.9 3.13 0.38 0.42 0.98 9.46 6.37

WA: Rangelands Carnarvon 84,302 1.49 0.23 1.52 3.4 1.4 0.22 0.76 0.3 0.11 0.56 0.16 0.09 1.07 0.07 0.04 8.4 Central Ranges 47,015 0 0.09 10.96 39.2 4.75 14.27 0.86 0.82 0.41 4.26 1.8 0.32 0.06 0.71 0.4 28.13 Coolgardie 84,857 3.69 0.08 0.11 5.26 2.05 1 1.76 3 0.22 0.68 0.52 0.27 2.02 0.03 0.19 Gascoyne 180,753 0.8 0.48 1.25 4.36 1.88 1.34 0.41 0.23 0.26 0.44 0.18 0.15 0.19 0.05 0.09 1.6 Gibson Desert 156,289 0.71 0.15 11.44 30.83 4.61 5.75 0.78 0.87 0.57 12.99 5.73 1.12 0.43 0.42 0.98 35.74 Great Sandy Desert

295,396 16.94 0.55 18.79 23.82 12.57 7.25 2.6 10.71 1.52 25.67 6.69 5.69 4.28 0.47 16.28 35.31

Great Victoria Desert

217,942 0.33 3.85 1.57 11.96 4.5 4.29 1.33 0.72 1.1 5.8 5.52 0.51 0.73 0.25 0.04 24.17

Little Sandy Desert

110,899 4.29 0.29 5.6 18.55 0.48 2.79 0.62 0.27 1.77 6.85 7.08 0.92 0.4 0.12 0.19 38.11

Murchison 280,842 0.99 1.67 0.65 1.88 1.95 1.09 0.25 0.16 0.26 0.32 0.72 0.16 0.06 0.02 0.23 0.66 Nullarbor 137,360 0.02 0.78 0.1 0.44 0.27 0.04 0.1 0.14 0.01 0 0.02 11.33 5.16 Pilbara 178,112 20.08 2.51 9.69 25.77 9.36 9.99 3.05 3.08 1.15 15.29 8.3 4.36 7.03 3.19 1.48 10.97 Tanami 30,161 5.55 1.88 27.71 33.44 33.09 15.35 7.01 21.58 0.92 38.87 18 4.72 2.59 3.56 52.48 26.25 Yalgoo 34,726 0.15 0.01 0 0.36 0.15 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.65 0.32 0.57 0.04


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IN THIS REPORT

TERM DEFINITION

ACRIS Australian Collaborative Rangelands Information System

GWW Great Western Woodlands

IBRA Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia

NAFI North Australian Fire Information

NRM natural resource management

IN ALL REPORTS IN THE SERIES

TERM DEFINITION

ABS Australian Bureau of Statistics

AFCMP Australian Feral Camel Management Project

BoM Bureau of Meteorology

BS bare soil

CMA Catchment Management Authority

DKCRC Desert Knowledge Cooperative Research Centre

DSI Dust Storm Index

EI Ecoclimatic Index

EMU Ecosystem Management Understanding™

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation

FIFO fly in, fly out

GAB Great Artesian Basin

GCM General Circulation Model

GDM Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling

GHG greenhouse gas

GW Groundwater

ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LEB Lake Eyre Basin

LGM last glacial maximum

MOF manual observation frequency

mya million years ago


TERM DEFINITION

NCCARF National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

NPV non-photosynthetic vegetation: senescent pasture and litter

OH&S occupational health and safety

PV photosynthetic vegetation: green

RCP Representative Concentration Pathways

SAAL South Australia Arid Lands

SDM species distribution modelling

SW Surface water

TGP total grazing pressure

TM Thematic Mapper

Western CMA Western Catchment Management Authority

Western LLS Western Local Land Service

Abbreviations


IN THIS REPORT

TERM DEFINITION

C3 and C4 plants

The different methods plants use to convert carbon dioxide from air into organic compounds through the process of photosynthesis. All plants use C3 processes; some plants, such as buffel grass and many other warm climate grasses, also use C4 processes. C4 plants have an advantage in a warmer climate due to their higher CO2 assimilation rates at higher temperatures and higher photosynthetic optima than their C3 counterparts


TERM DEFINITION

Adaptive capacity

The ability to change and therefore reduce gross vulnerability; includes issues such as mobility, financial resources and education

Bioregion A large, geographically distinct area of land that has groups of ecosystems forming recognisable patterns within the landscape

Contentious species

A species that presents special challenges for determining the adaptation response to climate change, because it is both a threat and a beneficial species (Friedel et al. 2011, Grice et al. 2012)

Dust Storm Index (DSI)

The Dust Storm Index is based on visibility records made by Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) observers. The DSI provides a measure of the frequency and intensity of wind erosion activity at continental scale. It is a composite measure of the contributions of local dust events, moderate dust storms and severe dust storms using weightings for each event type, based upon dust concentrations inferred from reduced visibility during each of these event types.

DustWatch DustWatch is a community program that monitors and reports on the extent and severity of wind erosion across Australia and raises awareness of the effects of wind erosion on the landscape and the impacts of dust on the community.


TERM DEFINITION

Ecological refugia

Refugia defined according to the water requirements of the species they protect. The conservation significance of ecological refugia, and the priority assigned to their conservation, depends on the level of knowledge available for the species they support.

Evolutionary refugia

Those waterbodies that contain short-range endemics or vicariant relics. Evolutionary refugia are most likely to persist into the future and should be accorded the highest priority in NRM adaptation planning.

Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling (GDM)

A method of modelling based on compositional turnover of a group of species at a location; it considers whole biological groups rather than individual species

Gross vulnerability of a system

The combination of exposure and sensitivity of system

Heatwave Continuous period beyond a week when a particular threshold temperature is exceeded

Hyporheic water flows

Below-surface flows

Indicators of exposure

Factors such as days above a certain temperature, days without rainfall, population density

Indicators of sensitivity

How sensitive a system is to hazards; indicators include the types of dwellings people live in and the percentage of the population with certain health characteristics

‘No regrets’ strategies

These strategies yield benefits even if there is not a change in climate

Novel ecosystem

Species occurring in combinations and relative abundances that have not occurred previously within a given biome (Hobbs et al. 2006)

Rainfall event One or more closely spaced rainfalls that are large enough to produce a significant vegetation response

Glossary


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TERM DEFINITION

Refugia Habitats that biota retreat to, persist in and potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions

Return period The number of days from the end of one rainfall event to the start of the next

Reversible strategies

Flexible strategies that can be changed if predictions about climate change are incorrect

Safety margin strategies

Strategies that reduce vulnerability at little or no cost

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM)

A species-specific approach whereby observational records are used to model the current potential distribution of a species

Short-range endemics

Species that occur only within a very small geographical area

Soft strategies

Strategies that involve the use of institutional, educational or financial tools to reduce species vulnerability to climatic change

Species invasiveness

A species that causes environmental or socioeconomic impacts, is non-native to an ecosystem or rapidly colonises and spreads (see Ricciardi and Cohen 2007). In the Invasive animals report it refers to non-native species (that is, those introduced to Australia post-1788) that have caused significant environmental or agricultural changes to the ecosystem or that are believed to present such a risk.

Strategies that reduce time horizons

Strategies that reduce the lifetime of particular investments

Vicariant relicts

Species with ancestral characteristics that have become geographically isolated over time


Contact Details Gary Bastin CSIRO Land & Water, Alice Springs +61 8 8950 7137 [email protected]

http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Ecosystem-Sciences/GaryBastin.aspx

Bastin G and ACRIS Management Committee Rangelands. 2008. Taking the Pulse. Published on behalf of the ACRIS Management Committee by the National Land & Water Resources Audit. Canberra.

Bradstock RA, Boer MM, Cary GJ, Price OF, Williams RJ, Barrett D, Cook G, Gill AM, Hutley LBW, Keith H, Maier SW, Meyer M, Roxburgh SH and Russell-Smith J (2012) Modelling the potential for prescribed burning to mitigate carbon emissions from wildfires in fire-prone forests of Australia. International Journal of Wildland Fire 21(6), 629–639.

Department of the Environment (n.d.) Australia's bioregions (IBRA). Australian Government. Canberra.

Scott JK (2014) Australian rangelands and climate change – Cenchrus ciliaris (buffel grass). Ninti One Limited and CSIRO, Alice Springs.

References

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Divisions/Ecosystem-Sciences/GaryBastin.aspx

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