automated model for optimized budget allocation in ... #10/1_ashtiany.pdf · `medical retrofit:...

IIEES

IDRiM 2010, Vienna-Austria

Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany*, Hooman Motamed, Bijan KhazaieInternational Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES)

Tehran, Iran

1st Annual Conference of IDRiM SocietyIDRiM2010

BOKU Vienna, Austria1-4 September2010

Automated Model for Optimized Budget Allocation inEarthquake Mitigation Scenario

Tehran Case Study

IIEES


Objective:Quantify the physical and human losses based on existing methodologies and monetary values; Find the optimal budget allocation in mitigation scenarios by taking into account both the pre- and post-earthquake expenditures including costs of building upgrading, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter, debris removal, hospitalization and human/physical damages; andAssist the decision maker in planning a mitigation strategy that suits his socio-economic requirements and limitations.

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Methodology:The methodology is based on optimization model that uses fore-developed loss estimation models as modules. These modules estimates physical damage, casualty counts, debris volume and displaced households count, and monetary loss.Also through a user interface the input can be modified based on the mitigation strategy values from user.

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General Structure of the ModelDamFun - MitFun RiscorFun

OptFunStakeholder

UI

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General flow chartGIS

MATLAB

EXCEL

GIS

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Damage Function:Calculates the damage states (slight, moderate, extensive and complete) for each parcel data based on its hazard level and their respective building type fragility curves.

Calculates the average damage for each parcel using combination weights of ATC-13 (1985) and sort the parcels based on their average damage value for using in retrofitting phase.

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Mitigation Function:Uses the results of Damage Function and allocated retrofit square meter values;Consider the mitigation action based on retrofit level (partial, premium and medical). Mitigation action is based on priority: hospital, school, …. Calculate the available operational hospital beds. It is assumed that if the average damage ration of a health care center is more than 0.3 the number of hospital beds will be divided by two.Calculate the number of casualties in 4 severity classesEstimate the debris weight (ton) using HAZUS methodology for structural damages.Estimate the number of displaced households.

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RetrofitLevel

Damage statesSlight Moderate Extensive Complete

Partial 1 1 1 1Premium 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7Medical 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Damage Reduction Factor for Each Retrofit Level

Mitigation FunctionPartial retrofit: Prevent fatalities and building should be demolishedPremium retrofit: Prevent fatalities, decrease the number of injuries and the building can be repaired and be used again.Medical Retrofit: Insures the hospital safety and operation and includes structural, non-structural and equipment anchorage

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Risk-Score FunctionDefines the triage process in hospitalizing injured people using the number of available hospital beds and severity of injuries.Defines the number of secondary fatalities that have died as a result of shortage in medical facilities. Generates risk performance for each of above-mentioned items in the form of indices. These indices represents the effectiveness of the mitigation strategy.Calculate the loss with consideration of:◦ Mitigation cost◦ Building damage cost, and Debris removal cost◦ Fatality counts and its corresponding statistical value◦ Hospitalization costs◦ Temporary shelter costs

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Retrofit costs in as a proportion of replacement cost of 450$/m2Building type

Steel frame Steel and BrickRetrofitting typePartial 0.22 0.22Premium 0.375 0.390

• Development cost per hospital bed: 120,000US$ (Ministry of Housing, 2009) • Cost of medical care per each patient per night : 160US$

Temporary shelter and commodity requirements (Sphere, 2004)Requirement Amount

Shelter space per person 50 square meterDrinking water 4 liter per dayWater for washing 8 liter per dayFood 1.5 Kg per dayBlanket 1 per personToilet 1 for 40 peopleBathroom 1 for 40 people

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Optimization FunctionFinds an optimal budget allocation pattern for

mitigation strategy based on the results of RiscorFun and the possible mitigation investment value (entered by stake holder). This pattern helps the stakeholder on how to distribute mitigation budget in existing fields:

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Case Study

Tehran, Iran

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Pilot Area: Region 3 of the 17th District 17 of Tehran

Population: 38130Area: 68.98 hectarePopulation density: 552 Inhabitant/hectare

Number of parcels: 6644Main structural types: Steel-Brick and

Masonry

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Hazard Map of the Region 3, District 17 of Tehran

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Distribution of Main Structural Types

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Buildings typologyBuilding type Steel Frame Steel and Brick OthersNo. of Buildings 1573 2838 53% of the Buildings 35.2 63.6 1.2

Land use of the study areaFour main occupancy types:Residential, Educational,Health care, and Public open space including parks

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Near to the Ray active faultHigh hazard levelOld fabricLow construction qualityNarrow roadsInsufficient open spacesLow health care capacityLow income

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MC (1) RV,CBR (1)

Mitigation Scenario (1)

MC (i) RV,CBR (i)

Mitigation Scenario (i)

MC (m) RV,CBR (m)

Mitigation Scenario (m)

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1 Million Tomans = 1000 US$

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Sensitivity analysis for Value of Life (VOSL)

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Existing Condition

Optimized

Retrofitting Plan

automated model for optimized budget allocation in ... #10/1_ashtiany.pdf · `medical retrofit:...

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