AUTOMOBILE DESIGNAUTOMOBILE DESIGNYear 2010 and BeyondYear 2010 and Beyond

AUTOMOBILE DESIGNAUTOMOBILE DESIGNYear 2010 and BeyondYear 2010 and Beyond

byby

Robert Q. RileyRobert Q. Riley

WORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATIONWORLD CAR POPULATION

Greater Demand & Greater Demand & Less ResourcesLess Resources

Accelerated Accelerated Greenhouse Greenhouse EmissionsEmissions

Environmental & Environmental & Energy Trends = Energy Trends = Negative Economic Negative Economic

ImpactsImpacts

Developing World = 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020Developing World = 300% Increase Between 1995 & 2020

TREND IN WORLD CAR POPULATION

0

100000000

200000000

300000000

400000000

500000000

600000000

700000000

800000000

YEAR

World Car Population

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CARS IN REST OF WORLD

CARS IN U.S.

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING TRANSPORTATION ENERGY USE

TelecommutingTelecommuting Self-Sufficient Micro-Self-Sufficient Micro-

CommunitiesCommunities

Better Mass TransitBetter Mass Transit Intelligent Intelligent

Transportation SystemsTransportation Systems

Behavioral/SocietalBehavioral/Societal InfrastructureInfrastructure

Improved Vehicle TechnologyImproved Vehicle Technology

VEHICLE TECHNOLOGYVEHICLE TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS OPTIONSVEHICLE TECHNOLOGYVEHICLE TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS OPTIONS

Improved Conventional Power System Efficiency Improved Conventional Power System Efficiency (VVA - CIDI - VCR - Controlled Auto Ignition - CVTs)(VVA - CIDI - VCR - Controlled Auto Ignition - CVTs)

Alternative Fuels Alternative Fuels (Natural Gas - Methanol - Ethanol - Hydrogen)(Natural Gas - Methanol - Ethanol - Hydrogen)

Alternative Power Systems Alternative Power Systems (Battery-Electric - Hybrid-Electric - Advanced Batteries - Ultracapacitors (Battery-Electric - Hybrid-Electric - Advanced Batteries - Ultracapacitors - Fuel Cells)- Fuel Cells)

Design For Lower Transported Mass Design For Lower Transported Mass (Smaller , Lighter Vehicles - New Materials & Processes - Holistic (Smaller , Lighter Vehicles - New Materials & Processes - Holistic Approach to Design)Approach to Design)

Power Systems - Fuels - Materials - DesignPower Systems - Fuels - Materials - Design

ELECTRIC VEHICLESELECTRIC VEHICLES

Good Torque CurveGood Torque Curve No Multi-Ratio No Multi-Ratio

Transmission Transmission Bi-Directional Bi-Directional

Energy/Work LoopEnergy/Work Loop Clean & EfficientClean & Efficient BEVs Potentially BEVs Potentially

Cheap to BuildCheap to Build Good Public ImageGood Public Image

Limited Range & Slow Limited Range & Slow Recharge of BEVsRecharge of BEVs

Greater Mass & Greater Mass & Complexity of HEVsComplexity of HEVs

Unfamiliar TechnologyUnfamiliar Technology Costly R&D/StartupCostly R&D/Startup Infrastructure CostsInfrastructure Costs Costly & Speculative Costly & Speculative

Marketing EffortMarketing Effort

PositivePositive NegativeNegative

BATTERY COMPARISONBATTERY COMPARISONSpecific EnergySpecific Energy

Wh/kgWh/kg

0 50 100 150 200Wh/kg

Lead Acid

NiCd

NiMH

LithiumPolymer

Now

Potential

Specific CostSpecific Cost$/kW-h$/kW-h

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600

Lead Acid

NiMH

NiCd

Lithium Polymer

Now

Potential

LITHIUM-POLYMER BATTERYCourtesy 3M Company

LITHIUM-POLYMER BATTERYCourtesy 3M Company

HYBRID-ELECTRIC VEHICLESHYBRID-ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Ultracapacitors Ultracapacitors FlywheelsFlywheels BatteriesBatteries

CI & SI EnginesCI & SI Engines Stirling EnginesStirling Engines Turbine EnginesTurbine Engines

ConversionConversion

StorageStorage

0.4

200

2000

50

1000

20

0 500 1000 1500 2000

U-capacitor (far-term)

Flywheel (far-term)

Battery (mid-term)

Specific Power(kW/kg)

Specific Energy (W-h/kg)

Storage CharacteristicsStorage Characteristics

INTREPID ESX SERIES HYBRID Courtesy Chrysler Corporation

INTREPID ESX SERIES HYBRID Courtesy Chrysler Corporation

PATRIOT FLYWHEEL/TURBINE HYBRID Courtesy Chrysler Corporation

PATRIOT FLYWHEEL/TURBINE HYBRID Courtesy Chrysler Corporation

FORD P2000 HYBRIDCourtesy Ford Motor Company

FORD P2000 HYBRIDCourtesy Ford Motor Company

NEW PACKAGING & STYLINGNEW PACKAGING & STYLING

More Compact More Compact Packaging With New Packaging With New Powertrain DesignsPowertrain Designs

Exterior is Shrinking Exterior is Shrinking Around the Passenger Around the Passenger ZoneZone

Urban- and Urban- and Commuting-Specific Commuting-Specific Cars Can Reduce Cars Can Reduce Emissions & Energy Emissions & Energy DemandDemand

CARS IN YEAR 2010 & BEYONDCARS IN YEAR 2010 & BEYOND

Hybrid Vehicles for Long TripsHybrid Vehicles for Long Trips Battery-Electric Vehicles for Local TripsBattery-Electric Vehicles for Local Trips New Downsized Personal Transportation New Downsized Personal Transportation

ProductsProducts One-Box Vehicle DesignOne-Box Vehicle Design

Fleet Comprised Mainly of ICE VehiclesFleet Comprised Mainly of ICE VehiclesBurning Reformulated Gasoline & AlcoholBurning Reformulated Gasoline & Alcohol

Significant Inroads By…..Significant Inroads By…..