automotive electronics & semiconductor market...

Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.

Automotive Electronics &

Semiconductor Market Trends

LIDARs and sensor fusion ECUs advancing ADAS

architectures towards automated driving

The Annual Tokyo SOI Workshop, 2017

Akhilesh Kona, Senior Analyst, Automotive Electronics and Semiconductors

Confidential. © 2017 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.

Agenda

• Automotive electronics and semiconductor market trends

• ADAS architectures towards automated driving

• Current state of ADAS sensor architectures

• Key technologies enabling next-gen ADAS architectures

• Market Outlook & Key Takeaway

2


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12,000+ 130+


Automotive market trends

4


Vehicle production rises slowly with various degrees in

emerging and established markets

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Chart Title

Middle East/Africa

South America

South Asia

Japan/Korea

North America

Greater China

Europe

Vehicle production volume forecast in million units

© 2017 IHS Markit

Millio

n U

nit

s

Source: IHS Markit

5

2.4% CAGR (2016 – 22)


Average value of electronic systems per car to cross

$1500 by 2022

$1,100

$1,150

$1,200

$1,250

$1,300

$1,350

$1,400

$1,450

$1,500

$1,550

$1,600

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Avg

. va

lue

of

ele

ctr

on

ics

pe

r c

ar

Chart Title

Chassis &Safety

Body &Convenience

Infotainment

Powertrain

ADAS

Avg.ElectronicsValue

Automotive electronics system revenue

© 2017 IHS Markit

Au

tom

oti

ve E

lectr

on

ics S

yste

m R

ev

en

ue

(Billio

ns o

f U

S $

)

Source: IHS Markit

6

5.6% CAGR (2016 – 22)


Automated driving, connectivity and electrification

fueling automotive semiconductor growth

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Chart Title

Logic IC

Memory IC

OpticalSemiconductors

Discretes

Sensors & Radars

MicrocomponentIC

Analog IC

Automotive semiconductor revenue by device

© 2017 IHS Markit

Au

tom

oti

ve S

em

ico

nd

ucto

r R

ev

en

ue

(Billio

ns o

f U

S $

)

Source: IHS Markit

7

7.1% CAGR (2016 – 22)


Current state of ADAS

architectures

8


Old generation: C-segment with 1 ADAS ECU

1-Series 2009

9


Proliferation of ADAS ECUs on the new platform

10

1-Series 2015


Old generation: E-segment with 14 ADAS ECUs

11

7-Series 2009


Advancement of features on new platform

12

7-Series 2015


Typical ADAS architecture requirements

ADAS Module Avg. per L3 Avg. per L4 Avg. per L5

Sensor Fusion 1 2 2

Exterior Camera 5 8 8

Interior Camera 1 1 1

Short/Mid-range

Radar

4 6 6

Long-range Radar 1 2 2

Long-range LIDAR 1 1 1-2*

Short-range LIDAR 2* 2-4* 4

13

*Architectures based on existing pilot car platforms


Key technologies enabling next-

generation ADAS architectures

14


Addressing the gaps in automotive LIDAR technology

Typical gap in LIDAR performance specifications

© 2017 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit

15

LIDAR

Current Standard Required Performance


Pure solid-state technology to dominate LIDAR space

by 2025

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

20162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

LIDAR shipment forecast in million units

© 2017 IHS Markit

Millio

ns o

f U

nit

s

Source: IHS Markit

-50% 0% 50% 100% 150%

Basic Flash

Hi-Res (2D/3D) Flash

Mechanical

MEMS & EOS

Optical Phase Array

CAGR (2020-26)

LIDAR shipments CAGR (2020-26)


16


Machine vision – a software driven market

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

High-end (>5 functions)

Mid-range(4-5functions)

Basic (< 3functions)

Revenue for front-view camera modules

© 2017 IHS Markit

Rev

en

ue s

hare

of

fro

nt-

vie

w c

am

era

mo

du

les

Source: IHS Markit

System revenue for front-view camera modules to

grow fourfold by 2022

• Basic cameras: Mass adoption in economy

segments to meet regional guidelines with

declining semiconductor BOM and software

costs

• Mid-range and high-end cameras: adoption on

premium segments with increasing

semiconductor BOM and software costs

Semiconductor revenue for front-view camera

modules will reach up to $1.5 billion by 2022

• SoCs based on MPUs or FPGAs?

• Intel (Mobileye) and the rest (S32V, TDAx, R-car,

Visconti, Zynq,)

• Key benchmarks: power consumption, performance

and safety compliance

Presentation Name / Month 2017

17


Sensor fusion modules – Growth in semiconductor

value for safety-critical functions

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Surround-view Parking Automated Driving

ADAS sensor fusion module forecast

© 2017 IHS Markit

Un

it s

hare

of

sen

so

r fu

sio

n E

CU

s

Source: IHS Markit

System level:

• Challenge: Software for enabling AD via

machine vision, deep learning, sensor fusion

and etc.

• Opportunity: Universities, technology labs and

start-ups working on unconventional

technologies (deep learning, machine vision,

etc.)

Chip level:

• Challenge: High performance processors

meeting traditional automotive requirements

(power consumption, functional safety

temperature, life-time, etc.)

• Opportunity: Suppliers with high-performance

computing platforms at lower power

consumption and small die size

18


Market Outlook & Key takeaway

19


Market share for ADAS sensor suppliers (in revenue)

Bosch

Continental

Valeo

Autoliv

Magna

Delphi

Panasonic

Denso

ZF TRW

Tung Thih Electronic

Sony

Hyundai Mobis

Hella

Clarion

Aisin

Sharp

Gentex

Velodyne

Samsung

Kyocera

Others

2016 ADAS electronics system supplier


20

On Semiconductor

Omnivision

Bosch

Murata

Valeo

Nicera

Infineon

STMicroelectronics

FLIR

Panasonic

NXP

Sony

Melexis

Gentex

ULIS

Others

2016 ADAS semiconductor* supplier share

© 2017 IHS Markit

*Only for radar transceivers, image sensors, ultrasonic sensors and infrared sensors

Source: IHS Markit


Key Takeaways

• Economy vehicle segments – proliferation of

sensors and ECUs for compliance (NCAPs,

NHTSA,..).

• Premium vehicle segments – Addition of

LIDARS and high-end sensor fusion modules

for automated driving.

• No compromise on sensor technology for

automated driving – redundancy is a must.

• Functional safety and performance for

autonomy will drive the semiconductor

growth through artificial intelligence and

sensor fusion.

• Consolidation of ECUs to drive high-

performance computing platforms.

21

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