autonomous cars
TRANSCRIPT
Autonomous Cars Analyical Report Benzir Ahmed, Christopher Basalo, Daniel D’Angelo, George Dragoste, Filip Pichtikov 1CS3 Communications C03• McMaster University • 25 November, 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 Introduction 3 Technology & Implementation 3 Societal Impact 5 Business Impact 7 Political Impact 8 Ethical Impact 9 Bibliography 12
Executive Summary
Over the past decade the automobile and technology industries have made significant leaps in bringing computerization into vehicles. Driving, which in the past has been exclusively a human function, is now being replaced with Automated Vehicles (AVs). AVs contain a wide range of computer systems and sensors that allow them the ability to cruise through city traffic and busy highways. With Google leading the charge, many other car manufacturers have began testing AVs. As of November 2013, Google’s self-‐driving cars have travelled over 500,000 miles in the United States and Canada. Overall, AVs will have a large impact on society. The reason for this is that more people will be able to commute by car without having to worry about traffic, accidents, or being late for work. With the high demand for shorter commute times and fewer accidents, driverless cars are the way of the future and will completely reinvent the meaning of transportation. Nevertheless, controversies surrounding AVs arise where the idea that autonomous vehicles reduce the risks of driving, meets the idea that robots and programmed cars cannot act morally. At present, AVs are new technology and a work in progress, but are expected to reach great technological milestones in the future. AVs have the potential to eliminate dangers of driving in the future, but until they can think and act morally, they will not be completely trusted and some human intervention will be required. With these dramatic changes to the road, cars may need a license of their own. AVs are still relatively in the infancy stage and are causing changes in licensing and legal systems. With the possibility of this invention taking over the streets, new laws and regulations must be enforced to prevent legal issues.
Introduction
The last ten years has seen a great amount of development in the area of computer systems being included in vehicles.. For over a century, driving has been exclusively a human function. However, newer car models increasingly include features like adaptive cruise control and parking assist systems that allow cars to steer themselves into tight parking spaces.
Steps industries are taking in order to progress the product.
Some companies have gone so far as to create autonomous vehicles (AVs, also known as self-‐driving vehicles) that have the ability to drive themselves on existing roads and can navigate many types of roadways, with almost no direct human input. Assuming that these technologies become successful and available to the mass market, AVs have the potential to dramatically change the transportation network by reducing traffic and accidents. Though this is a positive change, there are still the potential negative effects of this technology that must be considered.[1
Technology &
Implementation
AVs have onboard computers with a list of sensory systems that allow the car to see the surroundings, map them, create 3D images, read traffic lights, signs and maneuver through traffic[8]. Following is a description of the various components of the car that are necessary for the independent driving to occur.
Components of the Car
LIDAR [Light Detection and Ranging]
Mounted on the roof of the Google car, LIDAR instruments mainly consist of a pulsated laser, a scanner, and a specialized GPS receiver. LIDAR uses the pulsed laser to measure ranges, angles and variable distances to the surrounding objects. These light pulses—combined with other components’ data recorded by the system— generate precise, three-‐dimensional information about the shape of the Earth and its surface characteristics. LIDAR Technologies are primarily used by satellites or planes for mapping surrounding objects.[9] The LIDAR system on the Google cars is able to map objects in the surrounding 250 ft., and can also read traffic lights, signs and identify people[5][7].
Laser Sensors
A Laser Sensor or scanner consists of a pulsated laser (similar to LIDAR) that is used to determine the distance between objects and angles.[7]
AUDI: 80 metres in front of the vehicle and scanning angles of 80o[7][8][101]
BMW: A range of 200 m front and back[7]
GM: Ranges and specifications unpublished[7]
Radar Systems
Radars use radio waves to measure range, altitude, direction and the velocity of the objects. Radars are conventionally used in aircraft and naval vessels. The range of the radar systems on Autonomous Vehicles use what is known as Continuous Wave (CW) Radars.
Google cars: a range of 650 ft front and back, scanning angles 180o[4][7]
BMW/Mercedes: a range of 200 m front and back, scanning angles 180o[7]
Audi: a range of 200 m front and back, scanning angles 35o[7][8][10]
GM/Nissan: ranges and specifications Unpublished[7]
Camera [Inferred and Stereo]
Helps detect surrounding objects and their acceleration with the addition of Radar and LIDAR systems. The camera is primarily used to track lane marking, traffic lights and signs[7].
Ultrasonic Sensors
Ultrasonic sensors emit sound waves/pulses to calculate the distance of objects. These are used to alert the driver of probable collisions and obstacles.
AUDI: 8 sensors (front, back and corners)[7][8][10]
BMW: 4 sensors (above the wheels)[7]
Software and Computer Systems
All cars are built on a independent circuit. The mission-‐critical and communication systems are independent with little interaction with central data hubs. This feature ensures security and make it particularly difficult to hack or run large scale attacks on the AVs[1].
The systems are also designed to hand over control, when user input is detected (i.e. turning the steering, using the breaks etc.) If the car fails to hand over control to the user, there is a "kill" button that reverts the car back to manual mode.[4][5][7][10]
More information regarding the onboard systems is not currently available.
GPS and Differential GPS
Standard Global Positioning Systems (GPS) have an accuracy of 15 – 30 metres of the object, where as
Differential GPS can narrow it down to 10 -‐15 centimetres[3].
Implementation
As of November 2013, Google’s self-‐driving cars have driven over 500,000 miles in the United States and Canada[1][2][4][5][6]. Google's fleet of Toyota Priuses has now logged more than 190,000 miles, driving in city traffic, busy highways, and mountainous roads with only occasional human intervention[6][7]. Several manufacturers – including Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Ford, GM, Mercedes-‐Benz, Nissan, Toyota, Volkswagen, and Volvo – have begun testing driverless systems.[1] Although the price of the additional software and sensors is currently over $100,000,[7][5] Google and some manufacturers estimate the technology will available to the public by 2020.[7][2]
Societal Impact
“Passengers will have the ability to buy shares of an autonomous car.”
Once autonomous cars become available to the public they will have a large impact on society. Some of the major aspects that will be affected are: the quality of life, health and well being, accessibility, employment and the economy.
Driverless cars will most definitely affect the quality of life. At present, in order to be able to drive a car a driver’s license is required which involves also understanding and obeying all the rules of the road. However, this will change with the availability of autonomous cars. Drivers will no longer need to obtain a driver’s license or even worry about the rules and regulations of the road since the vehicle will be programmed to operate completely on its own. With this being said, passengers, including those in the driver's seat, will be able to focus on other things such as catching up on work during their daily commute, without having to be concerned about driving.
Autonomous cars are probably the most beneficial for people that are visually impaired or handicapped. People with disabilities very often must rely on either public or some sort of private transportation, which is sometimes unreliable and expensive. By owning a driverless car, people with disabilities will be able to travel at their own convenience without having to rely on others. This will also restore meaningful social roles to older adults.
Another impact on society that the driverless car would have is accessibility. With more and more cars on the road, there are more traffic jams, accidents and less parking spots. By introducing the autonomous car all of this can be eliminated. One way to reduce traffic, and have less vehicles in a parking lot would be the ability to buy shares in a driverless car. For example, there could be a set amount of people that would own part of the car, just like you would for a time share. Now different people can buy into a share of the vehicle. They can set up a set schedule that works for each person and use the driverless car based on that schedule. Accidents would be reduced because without a driver there would be no human error, which would also mean that autonomous car could be capable of travelling at higher speeds.
Furthermore, large corporations could buy into a car share. Then, when employees travel and are in need
of a vehicle, the driverless car would eliminate the need for an employed driver. This act would save the company some money however, the downside would be job losses.
Autonomous cars will create jobs for software engineers, and any college/university graduates that are pursuing a career in the technology sector. However, driverless cars will have a large negative impact on professional drivers that make a living by driving, such as truck drivers and taxi drivers. Freight truck drivers are usually on the road every day, sometimes for hours or even days. If the trucks were to be driverless, only controlled by a computer, these trucks would be able to reach their destination much faster with only stopping to fill up on fuel. This would save trucking companies a lot of money on overtime, but again it would also mean unemployment for the truck drivers.
Taxi companies are another business that would be drastically affected by autonomous cars. The basic role of a taxi is to drive someone around who does not own a car or does not want to drive. By replacing taxi drivers with computers, the company is saving money on employment costs, and may improve their performance by removing the possibility of human error.
Along with the positive outcomes that come with the development of autonomous cars such as reduced driver stress, increased safety, mobility, and roadway capacity, we must also consider the concerns of increased production costs, reduced employment and business activity, and the possibility of mechanical failure.
Business Impact
With the forever growing population, more cars are needed each day. With each day of growth the automotive industry creates something new to help drivers on the road, hence the move towards AVs. Companies like Ford, Volvo and Infiniti have already incorporated features that are moving in this direction, and what was once a futuristic dream, is becoming more of a reality.
Demand
Table 1 shows the amount of cars on the road today; evidence of the large demand for vehicles. If driverless cars were to be brought into Canada, their popularity would be sure to grow because of the sheer amount of people needing cars in their lives. However, of this large amount of people, about 50% do not like to drive but need a car in their lives. By incorporating driverless cars these consumers would be able to go where they need to and also means they would need to buy a new car. In addition, for the people who do not have their license because of their fear of driving, AVs would allow them more automotive mobility.
Funding
Car companies like Mercedes Benz, Audi and Toyota also have plans for self-‐driving cars. Google was the first to start working on driverless cars. Google may be willing to help further what they have already started so as to develop the progress of the technology. This means that they are are willing to pay for someone to create the programming needed in driverless cars.
Cost
Costs to build the car will still be the same. Engineers and programmers will need to be hired to create the program and also maintain it to make sure the program works at all times. If the program does not work properly then more money will need to be spent to make the improvements.
Profitability
Prices for the cars that come with the self-‐drive feature will increase, causing an increase in revenue. A specific increase in revenue cannot be determined because the market will change over time.
Political Impact
Despite having the required technology to create reliable autonomous vehicle systems, many political issues would arise if driverless vehicles were to be introduced to the roads today. Without the proper legal infrastructure, these vehicles would wreck havoc on an unprepared legal system. There are two main legal issues and unfortunately there are few answers as there is very little legislation in progress concerning autonomous vehicle systems.
The main political issue with autonomous cars at the moment is that, in many regions of the world they are still illegal. As expected, if they are to be introduced to public roads, major changes to the rules of the road must take place. Currently in Ontario, Canada an autonomous car cannot legally be driven on public streets. The Ontario Highway Traffic act states a vehicle traveling on the road must be driven by a person who holds a valid Ontario driver’s license1. Many experts agree that owners of autonomous cars will still require driver’s licenses. However, considering that the cars will be driving themselves most of the time, they will need permits of their own. There is currently no licensing system for these cars in many countries due to the fact that they are a relatively new invention. Few regions have legalized autonomous vehicles. These include Nevada and California, both found in the United States of America. These permits were only granted after Google spent over nine million dollars in both the first and second quarters of 2012 lobbying for the legalization of their driverless cars. If these driverless vehicles are to be introduced to more streets in the near future, massive legal changes must take place.
With driverless cars, the issue of driver liability also arises. It is currently unclear who will be at fault when a collision involving an autonomous vehicle occurs. Will it be the owner’s fault, or the vehicle’s manufacturer’s fault? It will also be difficult to determine if an accident will be considered a manufacturing defect. For an accident to be considered a manufacturing defect there will have to be proof that the autonomous vehicle and its systems were directly responsible for the crash. Computers are not perfect and will occasionally malfunction. This also applies to the systems of autonomous cars. Drivers will sometimes have to take over when these failures occur. It is currently unclear whether or not owners will be legally required to take control of their autonomous vehicles in emergency situations. In a 1999 study, an experiment was conducted to test whether or not drivers would override their simulated autonomous cars. This study showed that half of the drivers relied solely on the cars’ systems and did not take over even in the event of a failure. Policy makers and governments will need to use studies such as this one to determine who will be at fault when collisions occur. It is also unclear how distracted or drunk driving laws will be affected by driverless cars as the owner of the car might not be driving. Due to the relative infancy of driverless cars there are very few rules and policies regarding them. New laws must be created before driverless cars are introduced to the streets in order to avoid serious legal setbacks.
Ethical Impact
The process in which artificial intelligence sorts what is ethical and what is not.
At this point we may be asking ourselves, should we trust robotic cars to share our road, just because they are programmed to obey the law and avoid crashes? Or,is it immoral of one to drive, because the risk of you hurting yourself or another person will be far greater than if you allowed a machine to do the work?
Google Chauffeur
Google’s driverless cars are already street-‐legal in three states, California, Florida, and Nevada, and some day may just be mandatory. Eventually, automated vehicles will be able to drive better, and safer than a human. No drinking, no distraction, better reflexes and awareness will all be possible. Within the near future, the difference between autonomous driving and human driving will be so great that one may not be legally allowed to drive their own car. [3]
This will signal the beginning of a new era, in which it will be mandatory for machines to have ethical systems. These vehicles will have to make decisions in milliseconds, where swerving or not means the life or death of innocent children on a school bus. [3]
Opposing Views
Good judgment and morality can sometimes compel one to act illegally
If a squirrel were to suddenly run into the road, one would simply drift into the opposite lane and go around it, but an automated car may not act this way. The automated car may follow the traffic laws that prohibit crossing a double yellow line and come to a full stop. This decision may avoid road kill, but it could risk an accident with the drivers behind it. The laws of the road are not yet ready to deal with the rise of automated vehicles. Here the question arises: Is it enough for an automated car to pass a human driver’s test? Some believe it would be unfair to hold manufacturers to a higher standard than humans, but there are more important differences that could permit a more rigorous test. Human drivers are presumed to act ethically and wisely as they have the ability to exercise judgment in diverse situations, which don’t appear in a standard driving test. Ethics and law conflict at times, as good judgment may compel one to act illegally. Assuming the slow progression of the technology in these vehicles, they may refuse to drive when a headlight is broken, even though it is not needed in the daytime. Drivers may intentionally drive faster than the speed limit in the case of an emergency, but an autonomous vehicle would never break the law in autonomous mode. [2]
Programming of the Vehicles The programming of the car may be one of the many areas to focus on as society adopts autonomous vehicle technology: The Car Itself
Moral calculation may vary depending on whether the vehicle is privately or publicly owned. The car may be programmed to place the owner’s life at higher value than others, but an autonomous bus would be programmed differently. Just as the duties of a bus driver vary from that of a teacher, so will the duties of their automated vehicles. Depending on whether the vehicle is a police car, fire truck or a public transit vehicle, it may have to sacrifice itself and its occupants in certain situations. [2]
Insurance
Some believe that autonomous cars can avoid almost all accidents, meaning that many insurance companies will go bankrupt and disappear, since there would be little to no risk to insure against. Others believe the opposite could occur, and there could be an increase in accidents as the vehicles are vulnerable to wireless hacking since they are networked together. [2]
Abuse and Misuse
This technology offers an easy path for cyber-‐carjackers. If the vehicle is under attack by hacking or an ordinary break -‐ in, should it speed away, alert the police, remain at the scene for evidence, or defend itself? If these vehicles drive too conservatively, they could become a road hazard, or a road-‐rage trigger for human drivers. Alcohol consumption could be encouraged, as the vehicles are able to safely drive passengers home. [2]
Evolving Robots
Three Laws of Robotics
Many discussions start with three famous laws from Isaac Asimov:
A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. [3]
A robot must obey the orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the first law. [3]
A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the first or second laws. [3]
Reality We are a long way from constructing a robot that can fully anticipate the consequences of any of its actions (or inactions). For now, a robot is lucky if it can predict what would happen if it dropped a glass of water.[3] In another point of view, Asimov’s laws might not be fair to robots or autonomous cars. Asimov’s laws effectively treat robots like slaves. Perhaps that is acceptable for now, but it could become morally questionable as machines become smarter and possibly more self-‐aware. [3]
Human ethics themselves are a work in progress. Technology is striving for machines that can go a step further, endowed not only with the soundest codes of ethics that our best contemporary philosophers can devise, but also with the possibility of machines making their own moral progress, bringing them past our own limited early-‐twenty-‐first century idea of morality. [3]
“Ethical subroutines” may sound like science fiction, but once upon a time, so did self-‐driving cars. [3]
Bibliography George Dragoste
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Christopher Basalo
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Daniel D’Angelo
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Filip Pichtikov
Ontario, G. o. (2012). 7.(1). Highway Traffic Act (pp. ). Toronto, Ontario: Goverment of Canada. (Original work published 1990).
Dick de Waard, Monique van der Hulst, Marika Hoedemaeker & Karel A. Brookhuis (1999). Driver Behavior in an Emergency Situation in the Automated Highway Syste. Transportation Human Factors (1st ed., pp. ). Holland: Taylor & Francis. (Original work published 1999).
Justification After thorough revision of our Driverless Cars Report, we found it to have a number of problems. First off was the organization of the report. Originally we did not necessarily have one report; instead we had a series of reports placed in one. We have re-‐written and reorganized the report to flow and avoid repetition of points. The research was streamlined and all information that was irrelevant or unimportant was removed. Paragraphs were edited in order to be concise and straight to the point. Basically, the goal was to reduce the length of the report to a minimal length while still concise and thorough report. Expressions and sayings were removed with more professional language and spelling and grammar checks were made. Overall, we were content with the information and content we provided and achieved in our report. We believe it was well researched and relevant for the most part in our goal to provide an coherent report. The changes made are believed to be improvements of the previous admission, as they enhanced the Organization, Grammar, Content and overall Mechanics of the report itself. Learning Experience
• Through this assignment we have learned how to streamline research into relevant and important information that aid the content in a report
• We have learned how to work with the mechanics of a report in order to create a coherent order for the different sections. We have also managed to refine the information to prevent overlap in content and repetition
• Through research and teamwork, we have learned how to work effectively in a group and combine content into a report of reasonable length. We have also learned how to perform a presentation as a group while interacting with each other and aiding each other in the process