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AVATAR Case Study
Research and Technology Transition Workshop
July 24-25, 2012
Agenda
• Introduction • Video • AVATAR Background • Example Study • Technology Transition Process • SENTRI/Trusted Traveler Field Test • Path to Transition / Discern Science
What is BORDERS?
• DHS Center of Excellence – Funded by S&T University Programs
• Awarded July 2008 • Supplemental funding for specific projects
– Consortium of 15 universities – Headquartered at University of Arizona – Leverages $250m in on-going research/facilities
• Mission – Conduct border security and immigration research – Educate the next generation of scientists and personnel – Transition prototypes and products to DHS customers
BORDERS Partners
DHS Stakeholders
Customs & Border Protection Immigration & Customs
Enforcement
Transportation Security Administration
Citizenship and Immigration Services
BORDERS Research Areas
• RA 1: Detection, Identification and Screening
• RA 2: Sensor Networks and
Communications • RA 3: Immigration Policy and
Enforcement
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About Me
• Second Year Doctoral Student – Technology Transfer, Commercialization – Entrepreneurship Ecosystems – Automated Credibility Assessment
• Academic History – BS in Systems Engineering & Entrepreneurship – MBA in Marketing and Finance
• Work History – Founder or 1st employee variety of startups – Founded technology trade association for Tucson – Current founder of Startup Tucson
Intro to the AVATAR
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Research Goals
• Unobtrusive non-invasive credibility assessment – No sensors attached to the body – Real-time, remote analysis – Scalable and robust for high traffic – Useful across contexts – Useful across cultures
Research Questions
• What video, audio, and language-based features measure changes in behavior and reliably detect deception, impostership, and malicious intent?
• What psychophysiological measures are reliable indicators of deception?
– Heart rate - Pupil diameter
– Changes in Blood pressure - Gaze behavior
– Respiration - Thermal temperature
– Blink Rate - Galvanic skin response
• Which interviewing tools and techniques are most effective for identifying imposters, smugglers, terrorists, and other criminals?
Problem Complexity: There are Many Ways To Deceive
• Lies • Fabrications • Concealments • Omissions • Misdirection • Bluffs • Fakery • Mimicry • Tall tales • White lies
• Deflections • Evasions • Equivocation • Exaggerations • Camouflage • Strategic ambiguity • Hoaxes • Charades • Imposters
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Problem Complexity
• Rapid Screening – People usually make rapid decisions about
credibility (7-20 seconds) • Automated Interviews
– Force multiplier – Interview Control and Consistency
• Detecting which questions are most diagnostic – Question set changes for every context
Problem Complexity: Overconfidence and Underachievement
• Humans are poor lie-detectors – ~54% accuracy rate for general population – Accuracy is a function of the quality of base rates – Poor performance affects novices and professionals
• Confidence in judgment is not correlated with
accuracy – Affects attentiveness, verification efforts, and
misallocation of resources
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Interdisciplinary Research
AutomatedDeceptionDetection
Computer Science, Information
Systems
Communication, Linguistics, Speech
& Hearing
Psychology, Cognitive Science,
Nueroscience
Engineering (Electrical &
Systems)
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Research Approach - Multimethodological
Automated Human Screening: 30+ Years of Collaborative, Multi-disciplinary Research
Bioengineering Biometrics
Communication
Computer Science: Computer Vision,
Artificial Intelligence
Information Systems
Criminology
Linguistics Neuroscience
Oculometrics
Polygraph
Insider Threat
Psychology: Cognitive,
Experimental, Social, Organizational
Signal Processing
Virtual Interactions
Automated Virtual Agent for Truth Assessments in Real-Time (AVATAR)
• Avatar-based screening system – Rapid screening technology – Credibility assessment – Artificial intelligence – Stand-off sensor technologies
• Flag suspicious behavior for secondary screening • Can be customized for use with:
- Ports of Entry - airports - detention centers
- visa processing - asylum requests - personnel screening
LDV THERMAL BLINK CAMERA
PUPILLOMETRY EYE TRACKING VOCALIC ANALYSIS
COMPUTER VISION LINGUISTICS FORCE PLATFORM
Non-Invasive Tools for Rapid Screening
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Sensor Integration Platform
Sensor Research
AVATAR Kiosk - Generation 1
• Lab was transformed by packaging sensors into a kiosk
AVATAR Kiosk - Generation 2
• First working prototype • Kiosk form factor • Embedded sensors • Ruggedized for commercial use
AVATAR Kiosk - Generation 3
• Automated Kiosk • Interactive intelligent
agent • Embedded sensors • Avatar-based
interviewer • Expert system
• Biometric reader • Multilingual capacity
Sample Avatar Interviewers
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• Travelers packed a bag and were interviewed by an automated screening kiosk
• Half of participants also constructed and packed an explosive device:
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Example Experiments: Bomb Studies
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Sample Results: Gaze Analysis
•Control •Average = 12.43% •SD = 6.46%
•Bomb •Average = 28.52% •SD = 13.67%
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Eye Gaze: Guilty
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Eye Gaze: Innocent
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The Voice of a Bomb Maker
“Has anyone given you a prohibited substance to transport through this checkpoint?”
BOMB MAKER INNOCENT
Bomb Makers had 25.34% greater variation in their vocal pitch when answer this question:
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Explaining the Variation in Pitch
•Intonation •Pitch contours reveal a steep pitch rise over time
•Increased pitch at the end of an utterance reflect uncertainty
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Bomb Maker Innocent
Pitc
h (H
z)
Time (s)
TECHNOLOGY TRANSITION EFFORTS
Technology Transition Philosophy
• Technology transition starts at the beginning • The Last Research Mile (Dr. Jay Nunamaker)
– Find a painful problem – Propose a new solution – Listen carefully to the reactions – Devise an approach to ease their pain – Design and build a prototype – Test in the lab – Test in the field
• This is an iterative process – Bring lessons learned back to lab to drive improvement
“Last Mile” Research Road Map
• Proof-of-Concept prototype (POC) • Proof-of-Value (POV) • Proof of self-sustaining Use (POU)
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Real Problem POC POV
POU
SENTRI - Trusted Traveler Pilot Test
• Expedited processing for pre-approved, low-risk travelers entering U.S. – on-line application – background check – Personal interview consists of 20 standard questions
Trusted Traveler Pilot Test DeConcini Port of Entry, Nogales AZ
• Dec. 9, 2011 : 8- week field trial of AVATAR for SENTRI Program – Tucson Field Office provided space at SENTRI Enrollment Center in
Nogales – Work and meeting space provided by UA Santa Cruz County
• Personal interview is time-consuming for officers – Takes time away from higher-level tasks – Most applicants are low risk – SENTRI applications are expected to increase – Hiring levels expected to remain stable
• AVATAR acts as force multiplier to conduct interviews and segment risk
– 1 officer can monitor 4-8 AVATAR kiosk and receive real-time feedback
– Confirm the “good people” and move them through quickly – All others sent to officer for secondary screening
Trusted Traveler Pilot Test DeConcini Port of Entry, Nogales AZ
• Pilot Phase 1 (Dec 2011 – Jan 2012) – Conducted 175 interviews
(English only) – Demos: Comm. Bersin and
Aguilar, Pres. Luc Portelance (CBSA)
• Lessons learned: – Rewrite English script – Translate Spanish – Recognize when a person
speaks over AVATAR – Establish a training program
• Pilot Phase 2: July 2012 – Incorporate researcher and
CBP feedback – 1000 Interviews
Commission Bersin
Future Directions
• Examine and improve resilience to countermeasures – Mental and Physical countermeasure detection
• Non-contact measurement of Electrodermal Activity – Partnering with Night Vision Lab
• Expanded SENTRI role and additional applications – Lowering Language Level – Reciprocal Avatar Behavior / Interactive Dialog – Separating Avatar and Human voice
Potential Future Applications
• All Trusted Traveler Programs
• I-94 visas • TSA domestic travel • Apprehension
interviews • Periodic investigations • New hires
– Customize kiosks for these applications
Path to Transition
• Patent process started for AVATAR technologies • Vocalics, Linguistics, Kinesics, Ocular, etc.
• Responding to SBIRs and seeking venture capital
• Started new company: Discern Science Corp. • The science of the ability to judge well
Discern Science • Discern Science was
founded in 2011 – The products being
developed for commercial sale were sponsored by DHS and DoD
• Discern Science is the science of judging well
August 2, 2012 46
Commercialization Efforts
• 2011 • Invention disclosure filed with University • Provisional patent filed with USPTO • Discern Science Corporation formed • License option with University negotiated
• 2012 • SBIR application filed ($250K - $1M)
• “Standoff Counter Human Deception Detection Device” - SBIR A12-060
• Arizona Innovation Challenge ($250) • NSF I-Corps Program ($50K)
Pain • Trusted Traveler-
Domestic – exploding demands
beginning soon • Screening Personnel
– CBP, $250K per year – DoD, $1M per year AVATAR Kiosk Costs $100K in 1st year, $30K each subsequent year
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 48
Staffing
Work load for the AVATAR
Border Patrol Workload
2012 2022 Th
ousa
nds
Value Proposition • Rapid return on
investment – 100% - 500% ROI on large
scale implementation (20 units or more)
• Improved security and improved utilization of human capital
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 49
“The AVATAR (kiosk) received very positive comments during one of Ex-Commissioner’s (Alan) Bersin’s visit to the Nogales enrollment center on December 13, 2011. The pilot is ongoing and … preliminary indications are that there is a potential to use this technology to assist CBP in improving manpower utilization to balance the security and facilitation elements of our mission.” -- Armando Goncalvez, Program Manager – Trade, Tucson Field Office, U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Customer Value
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 50
5 CBP Officers cost $1.125 mil Efficiency: 1 Customers to 1 Officer
1 CBP Officer and 6 AVATAR kiosks cost $1.15 mil Yr 1 $400K After Yr 1 Efficiency: 5 Customers to 1 Officer
Year 1 ROI 9% Year 2 ROI 213%
Market (First Five Years)
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 51
U.S. Customs and Border Protection $115 million (sales) $34 million (services)
Department of Defense $500 million (sales) $150 million (services)
Transportation Security Administration $60 million (sales) $17 million (services)
$675 Million in Estimate Total Product Sales Revenue $201 Million in Reoccurring Annual Service Revenue
Competitive Advantage • No direct competitor exists for the
AVATAR • Some of the features exist in
separate products – Basic ATM like kiosks exists to
collect information – Current Credibility Assessment
technology require attaching to contact and most rely on a single sensor
• No competitor has scientific validity behind its product – Product requires more than
engineering – Relies on behavioral sciences
• Patents and exclusive licensing of all technology integrated into an AVATAR kiosk
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 52
Go to Market Strategy (First 18 Months)
Complete CBP SENTRI Program Field
Trial
Develop Commercial Product with AIC Funding
Receive Order from CBP for Five Units for
SENTRI Program
Obtain Additional
Funding for 2013
Operating Expenses
(Est. $600k)
Expand SENTRI Program
Product Sales and Enter
CBP NEXUS Program
(25 units sold)
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 53
Corporate Development
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 54
Assumptions and Risks
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 55
Critical Assumptions Negative Impacts Mitigation
Target Customers adopt Technology at Rated
Predicted
Slow product adoption slows revenue acquisition
Completing 2nd Field Trial of technology now, working to
ensure product adoption
AVATAR technology development continue as
projected
Delays in technology development could delay initial sale, increase cost,
and future revenue
Extensive on-going prototype development resulting in a
well scoped commercial development project
Funding needs in year 2 are met
Without additional funding in year 2 product development
and sales will slow
Factoring of purchase orders to fund year 2
development
Continued R&D and related funding through Univ. of
Arizona
Future products could be delayed if funding for basic
research at UA were reduced
Develop research tools and talents within Discern to
perform product development research in house
Questions
SUPPORTING SLIDES
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary *** Draft *** 57
Cues & Sensors for Deception Detection
August 2, 2012 Discern Science - Confidential and Proprietary 58
Recommendation
Proof-of-Concept Prototype
• Find out if the proposed solution works • Discover any limitations of the system
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Proof-of-Value
• Sufficient robustness and functionality to solve ONE important, painful problem
• Take it into the field and shepherd the users – MEASURE whether they are more productive
with the system than without
• Write down every compliment, and complaint verbatim – Add dates, names, and contact info (if possible)
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Academic Payoff from Proof-of-Use
• Deep understanding of technical, operational, and economic aspects of the problem domain
• Your nuggets will unify into a sophisticated understanding of the domain
• You can now create value intentionally • You can now find nuggets intentionally • Provide improved products to users in the
field, and leave them behind