Averting a Climate Catastrophe: Solutions for Home, Work, Community and Nation

John KayePh: 0407 195 455Email: john@nsw.greens.org.auApril 2006

(v6a)

2

Presentation Outline 1

Brief Introduction: The Bad News – What is Greenhouse? – Australia: the climate bandit– Climate consequences – Sources of greenhouse pollution

Energy: The Good News– The non-solutions: clean coal and nuclear– Renewable energy solutions– Energy efficiency solutions– Saving the planet, generating jobs, becoming a world leader

in climate solutions 

3

Presentation Outline 2

Transport: More Good News– Climate friendly solutions

The Politics of Greenhouse– why the political process not responding     – making the politicians take notice

4

Carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 30% from 1000 AD to 2004 AD

Data Source: World Watch Institute

5

The Greenhouse Effect

Source: Saskatchewan Interactive

6

Global temperature 1861-2004

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html

7

International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) (web site: www.ipcc.ch)

Set up by – World Meteorological Organisation & – United Nations Environment Programme

Leading climate scientists– cautious and rigorous

Working Group 1: Scientific basis of climate change– 635 scientists– 4,621 refereed scientific papers

"There is new and stronger evidence that most "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities."is attributable to human activities."

8 Stott et al, Science 2000

Climate change models predict observations te

mp

era

ture

ano

mal

ies

(oC

)

modelling with actual increases in greenhouse gas concentrations

9

But not without increased greenhouse gas concentrations

modelling without actual increases in greenhouse gas concentrations

Stott et al, Science 2000

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature; 1000 to 2100

10From: IPCC – 3rd Assessment Report 2001

11

Impacts of unchecked climate change (IPCC data: www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2SPMfinal.pdf)

Temperature rise– extreme heat events– ice melting (permafrost and caps) release of CO2 & methane

Sustained changes to rainfall patterns– droughts, floods & continental "summer drying"

Increased frequency & severity of extreme climate events– cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, droughts

Sea level rise– IPCC: 0.88 m by 2100 or worse (currently increase = 2 mm/year)– UK Met Office (Jan 2006): ice melt 7 m rise in long term

Changed wind patterns – spread of disease-carrying insects

12

Consequences of unchecked climate change

Human:– widespread drought & famine– insect borne diseases– floods and inundation of populated areas– increased war and conflict

Natural ecosystems– loss of habitat and species

End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)– rapid temperature rise of 60 C– 90% of life on planet disappeared90% of life on planet disappeared

13

Climate refugees

1.5 m sea level rise means 17 million homeless in Ganges River delta

Calcutta is 3 m above sea level

Dhaka is 5 m above sea level

IPCC 2001 Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

14

Per Capita Emissions Australia leads the way!

Data Source: The Australia Institute – Sept 2001

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

t C

O2

-e p

er

pe

rso

n

15www.joelertola.com/ grfx/chrt_greenhouse.html

Australia: Climate Bandit

16

Australian Coal Exports

approximately 730 million tonnes CO2 each year– 37 tonnes per person each year

+ 27 tonnes in Australia = 64 tonnes per person each year64 tonnes per person each year

231 million tonnes of coal exported in 2004/05– worth $18.3 billion (to whom?)– 77% of total Australian coal production

Australia = largest exporter in the world– about 30% of world trade– Newcastle = world's largest coal export port

(about 10% of world trade)

17

Discussion Questions: Climate Change

Can we afford to ignore the evidence? Effects of changing temperature on

environment? Impacts on low income countries? What are the implications of global dimming? Climate change: fact or theory? What changes have you observed locally?

– Are these necessarily caused by climate change?

19

Trends in Australia's Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

stationaryenergy

agriculture transport landclearing &forestry

industrydirect use

fugitive waste

mill

ion

to

nn

es

CO

2 e

qu

iv

1990

2003

Data Source: Australian Greenhouse Office

In 2003:

550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.

Plus approx. 730 million tonnes CO2 in export coal

In 2003:

550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.

Plus approx. 730 million tonnes CO2 in export coal

20

Stationary Energy

268 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (Australia - 2003)– About 70% electricity generation– About 30% gas and other fuels

Fastest growing greenhouse source– 37.2% increase from 1990 to 2003– Air-conditioning, lower efficiency houses (lighting, heating),

commerce and industry

NSW electricity industry dominated by coal– 90% of energy generation is coal burning– Rest hydro, small amount of gas

21

The big problem: Coal fired generators

Mt PiperPower Station

Lithgow, NSW

22

18,000 jobs lost in Australia’s coal industry from mid 1980’s to 2002

From: Diesendorf 2004

23

Non-solution 1: Geosequestration

24

Problems with Geosequestration (Carbon capture and storage)

Will it work?– Unproven technology

Cost– Estimates vary:

A$10/tonne CO2 (Batterham)

A$140/tonne CO2 (US DoE)

Limited suitable storage sites close to sources Long term risk

– Release due to geological activity rupture or leakage

– Passes problem to next generation

25

Non-solution 2: “Clean” Coal

26

Non-solution 3: Nuclear Energy

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power

The Nuclear The Nuclear Fuel CycleFuel Cycle

27

28

Nuclear Power Issues

Waste storage– Plutonium half life = 24,000 years (about 700 generationsabout 700 generations)

Accidents– Three Mile Island; Chernobyl– Sellafield Nuclear Facility (UK) 2005

Leak undetected for 9 months – 20 tonnes of uranium & plutonium dissolved in nitric acid

Containment can only be entered by robots Weapons & Terrorism

– Plutonium = inevitable by-product of nuclear power– Mohamed ElBaredei, IAEA:

“… the emergence of a nuclear black market, the determined efforts by more countries to acquire technology to produce the fissile material usable in nuclear weapons, and the clear desire of terrorists to acquire weapons of mass destruction”

29

Nuclear Power Issues II

Costs:– Heavily subsidised

“In 1998, cumulative subsides to nuclear power had an equivalent cost of [US]$1,411 per household.” (REPP, 2000)

Greenhouse gas emissions – Mining and processing (milling) low grade ore

Resource scarcity– If all world’s electricity demand supplied by

nuclear, would exhaust high grade ore in 4 yearsexhaust high grade ore in 4 years (Smith & van Leeuwin)

30

The good news:There are solutions and they work!

Australia does not need – Coal (clean or otherwise)– Geosequestration– Nuclear

"Clean Energy Future for Australia"– (wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/)

Halve emissions by 2040 Halve emissions by 2040 with existing technologies– Wind (20%)– Bio-electricity (26%)– Natural gas (17%)– Solar heat– Energy efficiency

31

Solution 1: Wind

Albany WA: 12 x 1.8 MW units = 75% of Albany’s electricity needs (image source: Western Power)

32

Wind & jobs

Jobs change from mid 1980s to 2002

Wind Energy Industry in Denmark

+ 16,000 new jobs

Coal in Australia - 18,000 jobs lost

•wind (with 80% Aus content) creates:

4 x number of jobs as coal4 x number of jobs as coal

for each unit of energy generatedData Source: Diesendorf 2004

33

Wind generation and the economy

$ overseas $ spent in Australia

1500 MW of coal

(costs $2 bn)$1.5 bn $0.5 bn

$2 bn invest in wind 80% Aus. content

$0.4 bn $1.6 bn

Data Source: Diesendorf 2004

34

Wind Issues

Some (potentially) non-issues:– Noise– Bird strike

Care with siting– Fluctuations in availability

Limited to about 20% of electricity generation in Aus.

Some real issues– Scenic impacts– Wilderness & native vegetation impacts (esp. access roads)

Siting and development assessment process– Community involvement not “community consultation”– Needs to ensure that all affected parties share in benefits– Needs to respect local and environmental values

35

Solution 2: Bio-electricity

Sunshine Coast, Qld:

• Ergon Energy

• Suncoast Gold Macadamias

36

Bio-electricity: “Closed” Carbon Cycle

Carbon released from combustion iscarbon recently taken from atmosphere

37

Issues with bio-electricity

Local environmental pollution Land degradation Water scarcity Native forestry wastes

– A distraction from the main game– Will cause more forests to be destroyed– Not needed:

Australia can generate 26% of its electricity from bio-electricity by 2040 without native forest residueswithout native forest residues

38

Solution 3: Solar Heating (especially hot water)

Direct solar: e.g. solar water heater

39

Solar Water Heaters

hot water = 27% of domestic energy use about 5% of all water heater installations are solar

– about 36,000 each year costs $800 - $2,100 more than conventional electric

system:– pays for itself in 5 - 10 years– plus subsidies from Federal Gvt (RECs):

$500 to $1000 or more depending on size

other systems:– electric heat pump– high efficiency gas

41

Jobs in Solar Installation

42

Solution 4: Energy efficiency

43

Energy Efficiency: 9,000 new jobs9,000 new jobs

Ministerial Council on Energy 20% to 30% reduction in energy consumption possible

12 years benefits using available technology: Employment increase by around 9,000 (+0.1%)Employment increase by around 9,000 (+0.1%) GDP $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%)GDP $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%) 9% reduction in stationary energy consumption

(-213 PJ) 9% reduction in greenhouse emissions9% reduction in greenhouse emissions (-32MT)

44

Impact on GDP (Using available technology)

Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy

45

Energy Savings by Sector

Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy

46

Greenhouse Sources in the Home

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Cooking

Standby

Lighting

Heating & cooling

Refrigeration

Other Appliances

Water heating

Source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/ yourhome/technical/fs40.htm

47

Your Home

Water heating– Choice of solar, high efficiency instantaneous– Low flow shower heads

Space heating & cooling– Window shading– Insulation

Refrigeration, washing machine, appliances– Efficiency (5 star rating)

Lighting– High efficiency lights

House design for solar capture and energy performance

48

Discussion Starters: Stationary Energy

Nuclear energy: would we ever see its benefits outweighing its dangers?

Wind energy: sacrificing scenic values for the climate?

Making the polluters pay: higher prices but lower bills for all?

What’s gone wrong: Why wont my rooftop solar panel compete with Mt Piper power station?

49

Transport and Greenhouse Gases

One of fastest growing sources of greenhouse pollution

– 1990 to 2003 increased by 28.8%

79.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (2003)

15% of all of Australia’s greenhouse emissions

50

Transport Emissions – TrendsAustralia: 1990 to 2003 (data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)

0

10

20

30

40

50

Cars Trucks &Buses

Light Comm CivilAviation

Rail other

Em

iss

ion

s (

mill

ion

T C

O2

eq

uiv

)

1990

2003

51

Transport greenhouse emissions by mode (data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)

0.330.23

0.08

0.06

0.03

0.02

0

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

kg per person per km

Bike/Walking

Rail

Bus

New 1.8 litre car, 4 people

Average car, 4 people

New 1.8 litre car,driver only

Average car, driver only

Data source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/transport.html

52

Hybrid Vehicles

53

Private Vehicles = Traffic Congestion

54

Biofuels

55

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

56

Reinventing our rail system

Passenger public transport Freight on rails

57

Jobs in rail transport

60% fewer jobs than 25 years ago. – 75% of jobs losses in regional and rural Australia. – average age of rail workforce is 52 years.

Need for public re-investment– capital infrastructure– the workforce

RTBU: immediate need for 1,500 traineesimmediate need for 1,500 trainees– mainly young people – many in regional areas.

58

Bicycles and Light Rail

59

Bicycle use

60

Workshops

Brainstorming the solutions– at homeat home– at workat work– in the communityin the community– nationallynationally

Appoint a facilitator, a scribe and a reporter 5 minute report back on key findings

61

What needs to be done?

Ending the fossil fuel age:Ending the fossil fuel age:– no new coal powerno new coal power– no new coal mines no new coal mines – no new motorwaysno new motorways– reduce dependence on export coalreduce dependence on export coal

Commit to 50% reduction by 2040 Carbon taxes (polluters pay)

– alternative: cap emissions and trade permits– assistance to low income households

62

What needs to be done? (2)

Minimum energy efficiency standards– Industry, commercial and residential

Invest in renewable energy End subsidies to coal & energy intensive

uses– Just transitions to sustainable jobs

63

How to make the transition and reap the benefits?

Industry policy (vs. globalisation & market ideology)– Develop industries that solve climate problems– Make deliberate decisions

locating manufacturing in areas with high unemployment

– High volume + low value added High value added + low volume

– Focus on innovation & developing export industries

Workforce– Unionised workforce, collectively bargaining– Public education opportunities

TAFE

64

USA

64

65

Making the transition: the politics of creating a future

Coalition: bad– “Clean Coal”: geosequestration– Undermined carbon taxes & carbon trading– MRET to expire, no teeth– Refused to sign Kyoto– Promoting “Asia Pacific Partnership” to destabilise

next round of Kyoto

66

Making the transition: the politics of creating a future (2)

ALP: a little better– Sign Kyoto– Committed to reductions in the long term– Nice words about renewable energy

BUT:– Debate over uranium mining and energy– Still addicted to "clean" coal

67

Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate (AP6)

India, China, Japan, South Korea, USA, Australia– Largest coal based economies

Negotiated in secret Emphasis on “clean coal” solutions No reduction targets ABARE Study: emissions will double by 2030 Designed to:

– Undermine post-Kyoto negotiations – Take pressure off governments & fossil fuel industries

68

NSW State Gvt:talking the talk but can they walk?

Recognition of greenhouse problem but … New coal fired electricity Air-conditioning load growing

– Cross-subsidy: each air-con household receives $70 a year subsidy

from non-air-con households (Sydney – EnergyAustralia 2005)

– Energy efficiency of new housing stock– Developer donations

69

NSW State Gvt:talking the talk but can they walk? (2)

More km of Sydney motorway than all other gvts– Failure to get trains operating– Closure of branch lines

Desalination plant– 1% increase in stationary energy

(500 ML/day plant) (Australia Inst. data)

70

The political system captured by entrenched interests

“Old” energy intensive industries:coal, oil, minerals Campaign donations

– $1.5 m from resources & energy sector in 1999-2003– Developers

Revolving door– Warwick Parer (Minister for Energy & Resources, 1996-1998)

– "Greenhouse Mafia": Australian Industry Greenhouse Network members writing &

accessing cabinet submissions (4 Corners 13/2/06)

71

The political system is driven by

Fear of backlash – e.g. blackouts, water shortages

Ideology of deregulation & privatisation– Opposed to meaningful targets– Opposed to making polluters pay & pricing environmental

damage Short electoral cycle

vs medium time scale impacts

The political system is failing!The political system is failing!

72

How to get there: Making the political system work

Community lead change to political process: – requires community transformation– Need to turn every household into greenhouse campaigner

Demand clean energy future Demand better public transport

The Greens– Raising the bar on the debate– Climate Action Working Group

2007 state and federal elections– Making positive solutions for greenhouse key issue– Social, economic and ecological benefits