Avian Influenza Modeling

By: John FujitaResearch Institution: Pacific Disaster Center

Research Supervisor: Mike NapierHome Institution: University of Hawaii, Manoa

Background on Avian Influenza

•Family orthomyxoviradae•Relative of common flu•Most prevalent in birds•Spread

–Direct contact–Fecal matter–nasal and ocular discharges

•Symptoms–Pneumonia, eye infections, pancreatic damage, and severe respiratory diseases

Economic Impact

• 1983–1984 outbreak of Highly Pathogenic AI in the USA

• Destruction of more than 17 million birds

• $63 million in Federal funds

• additional $350 million in increased consumer costs

Historic Pandemics

• 1918-1919 Spanish Flu– Worst Pandemic in History– 50 Million Deaths– Over 500,000 dead in US

• 1957-1958 Asian Flu– 70,000 deaths in US

• 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu– 34,000 deaths in US

Potential Impact of a Pandemic

• 20-50% of the world human population infected

• 250 million deaths

"We at WHO [the World Health Organization] believe that the world is now in the gravest possible danger of a pandemic…"

Dr. Shigeru Omi, the WHO's Western Pacific Regional Director,

23 February 2005

Cycle of Avian Influenza

Shore birds

Pandemic disease cycle

Natural avian influenza cycle

Mammals(primarily swine)

Waterfowl

Domestic birds

Humans

Source from: www.doh.state.fl.us/Disease_ctrl/ epi/htopics/Avian_Influenza.ppt

Recent Breakouts

•108 confirmed human case studies •Infection clusters•First-time infection of multiple species•Death rate going down

My Contributions

• Human case studies (at provincial level)– World Health Organization ~2004

• Animal case studies (at least district level)– OIE ~1997

• GIS data layers– Poultry and population density– Migratory bird flyways– Airline routes– Geospatial data

• Rainfall, elevation, temperature, humidity, hydrology, wind direction

•

Conclusion

• MORE FUNDING for PDC• Saving of millions of lives

Future of ProjectDevelop knowledge base and gather raw data- John Fujita and Mike Napier

Preliminary Model and Analysis – John Fujita and Mike Napier

Develop contacts and obtain complete data – Allen Clark

Complete Model and Analysis – Mike Napier

Draw insightful conclusions- Mike Napier

Acknowledgements

• Center for Adaptive Optics– Malika Bell– Lisa Hunter– Liz Espinoza

• National Science Foundation• Maui Economic Development Board

– Isla Yap– Leslie Willkins

• Maui Community College– Mark Hoffman

BIG MAHOLOS

• Pacific Disaster Center– Mike Napier

• This project is supported by the National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Adaptive Optics, managed by the University of California at Santa Cruz under cooperative agreement No. AST - 9876783.

Any Questions?

Preliminary Model