Aviation and climate change: thoughts on UK

policy

Peter LockleyUbina Environmental Consulting

Saturday 18th June 2011

Contents

• The Climate Change Act

• Aviation emissions – do they fit?

• 2050 target and the CCC Report

• Is the 2050 target the right one?

• Cleaner planes?

• Implications for policy

The Climate Change Act 2008

– First climate change target enshrined in legislation:• 80% cut on 1990 levels by 2050• 5-year budgets to keep UK on track to meet target• Advice of Committee on Climate Change on budgets

etc

– International aviation (+shipping) excluded, but:• Budgets must be set ‘taking into account’ IAS• Govt must include by end of 2012, or say why not.

Q: How does aviation fit into the budget?

A: With difficulty.• Overall 80% cut in 2050 requires:

– International shipping no higher than 2005 levels;

– Non-CO2 emissions cut by 70% (maximum feasible);

– International aviation no higher than 2005 levels;– All other sectors reduce emissions by c.90%

• No offsets available by 2050• Cost of forcing extra cuts in other sectors?

2050 target and CCC report• Jan 2009: previous Govt set target for absolute

emissions to be no higher in 2050 than 2005• Dec 2009: CCC Report on how to meet the target:

– 0.8% annual improvement in fuel efficiency ‘likely’– Passenger numbers can increase to 370 mppa by

2050 – MAX compatible with target

– cf ATWP: 470 mppa by 2030, 570 by 2050.

– Even with no new runways, and C price rising to £200/t in 2050, demand = 425 mppa.

Is ‘2005 levels’ the right target?

• Impact on other sectors• Shipping may be higher than assumed by

CCC – report due this year

• Aviation non-CO2 impacts:

– NOx at altitude, cirrus, contrails

– Problems with RFI, but new work on GWP(100) suggests multiplier of 2.

– So… cut aviation target in half? Or other sectors cut by 95%?!

CCC on non-CO2 effects

• “As scientific understanding develops, and to the extent that this confirms the significant additional warming from aviation non-CO2 effects, it is very likely that these will become fully accounted for…”

• “It is reasonable to assume… that some additional emissions reduction effort would be required in aviation.”

• IMPLIES that stabilisation is a bare minimum acceptable target for aviation.

Cleaner planes: in theory

Source: Sustainable Aviation Roadmap 2008

Cleaner planes: in practiceTrends in UK terminal passengers and emissions from UK aviation

Source: CAA airport Statistics and UK National GHG Inventory data (DECC)

“A genuinely sustainable framework”

• Reaffirm 2050 target, with a commitment to regular review of adequacy in light of:– Non-CO2 science;– Trends in other sectors.

• Immediate freeze on airport expansion:– ATWP is dead, so no policy basis to support expansion– Current permitted expansion = c.370mppa (AEF/WWF)– Growth only in return for proven fuel efficiency gains– New slots auctioned to highest bidder every 5 or 10 years –

if any available?• Increase in APD, strengthening of EU ETS

when possible, package of support for alternatives.