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Aviation at aTurning PointThe Global Aerospace Summit 2012
Fadi MajdalaniAlessandro BorgognaTansel KilicarslanLeonardo Monti
Conference Insights
Contact Information
BeirutFadi [email protected]
DubaiAlessandro BorgognaPartner+971-4-390-0260 [email protected]
Tansel KilicarslanPrincipal+971-4-390-0260 [email protected]
Leonardo MontiSenior Associate+971-4-390-0260 [email protected]
Florham Park, NJRandy [email protected]
MunichHans-Joerg [email protected]
Washington, DCMarty BollingerSenior [email protected]
Marty Bollinger, Randy Starr, and Hans-Joerg Kutschera also contributed to this Conference Insights paper.
In association with the Global Aerospace Summit 2012
Booz & Company
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INTRODUCTION
Although exciting, this growth will not be easy to manage. Most new demand will come from Asia. China already requires 300 to 400 new air-craft a year to keep up with demand from travelers. The other main source of demand will be the Middle East, where more than 400 wide-body aircraft currently operate. This will create execution challenges for origi-nal equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the industry in general. Besides these execution challenges, high fuel prices will weigh on operators’ profit-ability and environmental pressures will ratchet up as the industry tries to meet its commitments to reach a net carbon emission cap by 2020, and to halve its carbon output by 2050.
However, managing traditional air-lines is just one part of the industry’s growth story. There is an exciting new frontier opening up: the commer-cialization of space. No longer will space be the province of a few major countries. Over the next decade, many more will have the opportunity to develop domestic space industries that include everything from subor-bital flights for wealthy individuals, to launching and landing satellites, to ferrying goods and people to the International Space Station. To win in this new space race, governments without historical involvement in space must immediately begin to create the infrastructure and policies necessary to succeed.
The Global Aerospace Summit was held in Abu Dhabi in April 2012. It was hosted and sponsored by Mubadala Aerospace, the Abu Dhabi Airports Company, and Al Yah Satellite Communications Company (Yahsat). Over one thou-sand executives from around the globe assembled to discuss the future of the industry and define the many challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. By all accounts, this is an indus-try gaining altitude quickly and on the cusp of tremendous change. Air traffic worldwide is forecast to double during the course of this decade.
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The growth of air traffic is accelerat-ing and will bring with it challenges. Global air traffic doubled twice in the past 30 years and is expected to double at least once more during this decade as countries such as China and India approach GDP per capita of US$10,000 (in purchasing power parity [PPP] terms)—the range during which, historically, air traffic volume rises
exponentially. The projected rise of air traffic means inevitable challenges ahead. Dialogue at the summit crystal-lized around three distinct aspects of aviation: OEMs, air transport, and space. For each of these segments, pan-elists identified several key emerging challenges and possible solutions.
OEMsOEMs are the actual manufacturers of aircraft. Panelists outlined five major challenges that the aerospace manufacturers will face over the next 20 years: the supply chain, environ-mental requirements, research and development (R&D), access to talent, and access to capital.
Fixing the Supply ChainThe supply chain is under stress and cannot satisfy the demand for new aircraft, which is restraining airlines’ growth. This pressure will mount as demand increases from aircraft buyers, and cost increases push OEMs toward a more global supply chain and manufacturing footprint.
Further consolidation of key sup-pliers, such as the recent UTC-Goodrich merger, is shifting power downstream in the supply chain. OEMs therefore need to understand where and how the value is changing along the supply chain and develop strategies to protect their value from
CHALLENGES AHEAD
Note: Air trips per capita is calculated as the number of departing passengers in one year divided by total population. Source: International Air Transport Association (for air trip data); IHS Global Insight (for GDP data); Booz & Company analysis
Exhibit 1 Travel Intensity Grows as Countries Prosper
Germany
55 70656050454035302520151050
NorwayQatarDenmark
U.S.Sweden
NetherlandsAustralia
Switzerland
Austria
U.K.
Belgium
FranceJapan
Canada
KuwaitItaly
Spain
South Korea Oman
Ann
ual A
ir Tr
ips
per
Cap
ita
1.00Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Turkey
Russia
Malaysia
South AfricaBrazil
Thailand
China
Indonesia
EgyptPhilippines
10.00
GDP per Capita ($000s, 2009 PPP)
0.10
0.01
India
Vietnam
TRIPS BY AIR PER CAPITA COMPARED TO GDP PER CAPITA
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Note: Revenue ton kilometers are utilized (sold) passenger and cargo capacity expressed in metric tons multiplied by distance flown. Source: Booz & Company analysis for World Economic Forum 2011
further eroding, for example through partnerships or vertical integra-tion. One response by OEMs is to establish international partnerships that provide better access to talent, technology, and funding. Panelists noted that emerging markets will play an increasingly important role in such OEM partnerships as their purchasing power grows and they look to get their share of the action. Panelists also said that large demands on suppliers will force them to be more flexible. They will have to produce fully equipped “plug and play” individual compo-nents, design and develop complete solutions and systems, and share risks with OEMs.
OEMs will also need to work with each other to fix the supply chain, panelists said. Parts shortages are already interfering with several new aircraft development programs. OEMs therefore need to guarantee access to parts. Boeing, for example, orders one million parts per annum, and it shares 70 percent of the same supply base with the other leading OEM, EADS. This means no com-pany or country can “fly solo.”
Meeting Environmental RequirementsOver the last two decades, the number of airplanes has increased by 45 percent, yet carbon emissions grew by only 3 percent. That dramatic relative decline in emissions is thanks to great
strides in technology. For example, improved bypass ratios in engines have increased propulsion efficiency and thermal efficiency. (The bypass ratio is the volume of air that goes around the core of a turbofan engine compared to the volume that travels through the engine’s core.) For civil aircraft, higher ratios lead to more efficiency. Bypass ratios have increased from 1:1 in the Boeing 707 passenger jet of the 1950s to 9:1 in the engines on the double-decker Airbus A380 today. Panelists expect to see a 12:1 ratio within two years and possibly 15:1 by the end of this decade. The projection is therefore for emissions growth to rise at a slower pace than air traffic overall (see Exhibit 2).
Exhibit 2 Emissions Growth Will Be Slower Than Air Traffic
Air Traffic Growth (Passenger + Cargo)
CO Emissions Growth 2
2,092
1,594
1,215
876
635
3,058
2,091
1,455
902
536
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0.1
0.0
Avi
atio
n G
row
th in
Bill
ion
Rev
enue
Ton
Km
4.5%
3.0%
20502040203020202010
CO
2E
missions in M
illion Tons
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
FORECASTS OF AIR TRAFFIC VS. CARBON EMISSIONS GROWTH
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These continued advances in fuel efficiency are necessary to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations. Besides more efficient and quieter engines, it is hoped that lightweight materials, super-efficient aerodynamics, and biofuels can help the industry meet its environmental goals at a reasonable price. Going forward, panelists said, OEMs need to make all their processes greener, not just their operating footprint. They need to include fuel itself as a design and development element, and they should increase collaborations with other industry players, such as air navigation service providers (ANSPs, which manage air space and air traffic flows) and government research and development programs.
More efficient use of existing resources could also help meet envi-ronmental goals. For example, better vertical lift technology (like that of a tilt rotor craft) could reduce airport and air traffic congestion, both of which would save fuel. Indeed, panel-ists made a remarkable prediction: airplanes could become 50 percent more fuel efficient once technologies currently under development (such as open rotor engines or seamless engine-wing-fuselage shape integration) are finally deployed.
While the industry is committed to reducing emissions, panelists criticized the E.U.’s Emissions Trading System as more a tool to extract money from airlines that fly over the E.U. than a
genuine attempt to lower CO2 emis-sions. Panelists pointed out that since the launch of the Emissions Trading System, E.U. governments have failed to introduce any specific projects or initiatives to reduce their global avia-tion emissions footprint.
Committing to R&DOEMs have become truly global over the past decade, capable of weather-ing the toughest economic crises by capturing demand wherever it arises around the world. However, develop-ing and manufacturing new aircraft is not an easy job. Technical problems often pop up unexpectedly, forcing designers back to the drawing board, creating delays and driving up devel-opment costs. OEMs need to reduce
Sultan Bin Saeed Al Mansouri, UAE Minister of Economy
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Homaid Al Shemmari, Mubadala Aerospace
Tony Tyler, IATA
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these aircraft development costs by 50 percent to keep new technology development affordable. In fact, pan-elists said, reducing the product life cycle cost and improving profitability is critical. They pointed out that if the world aviation industry were a coun-try it would rank 19th in the world by GDP, yet it realizes a mere 0.5 percent of global corporate profits.
In terms of R&D, most panelists expect that OEMs will focus on incre-mental innovation, not revolutionary leaps. This approach makes sense given that customers want improve-
ments based on reliable, proven technology. It is also easier for OEMs to scale production of incremental technology improvements to global volumes and provide global technical support from day one.
Unfortunately, finding the capital to fund even these incremental improve-ments is becoming progressively harder. In the past, military R&D provided benefits to the civilian aerospace indus-try, whether through technological advances or knowledge. Now, as mili-tary funding declines globally, OEMs must consider new R&D partnerships,
particularly in lower-cost emerging markets, if they are to take up that slack. The objection to this approach is that dominant OEMs worry about losing control of their intellectual prop-erty in emerging markets. However, panelists argued that the enormous size of the Chinese and Indian markets should outweigh IP concerns.
Attracting the Best PeopleThe aerospace industry is a talent-intensive business that suffers a shortage of experienced professionals; this has spurred an intense war for talent in the industry and academia.
Marwan Lahoud, EADS
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Developing talent internally is cer-tainly an option for companies, but it is not sufficient as senior engineers often need seven to 10 years to train new or junior employees.
Panelists discussed how to fill the talent pipeline faster, and made several suggestions. First, the industry should increase the number and breadth of international partnerships to gain access to human talent in areas where it is more abundant.
Second, manufacturers and academia should coordinate to define the industry’s long-term goals and align on the type of training needed. Lastly, it is critical to develop and showcase attractive career paths in order to win and incentivize talent. For instance, a career path tailored to high-knowledge middle-level managers might include defined career milestones, opportunities for international assignments, and cross-functional activities.
Keeping Capital FlowingR&D aside, aerospace is one of the most capital-intensive industries in the world. The massive investments required take 20 years or more to be recouped. Interestingly, since the 2008 financial crisis, shortages of capital in developed countries have strengthened the bonds of OEMs with emerging markets and given them greater access to demand worldwide. Panelists pre-dicted that the common strategic inter-ests of OEMs in developed countries
James Albaugh, Boeing Commercial Aircraft
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and those in emerging markets will ultimately lead to international risk-sharing partnerships and other ways to satisfy the funding needs of OEMs, suppliers, and buyers.
Air TransportAir transport encompasses the entire transportation value chain, from airlines to airports, from air navigation providers to regulators. Panelists said the air transport industry needs to address four major challenges over the next two decades: regulatory constraints;
airport investment; cost control and sustainability; and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) changes.
Regulatory ConstraintsAir transport is the second most regulated industry in the world after nuclear power. Bilateral treaties, government levies and taxes, and inconsistent and volatile regulations all place tremendous burdens on the industry. Panelists said the profusion of regulations is particularly detrimen-tal because it prevents the very global alliances that many airlines believe are
necessary to expand services and desti-nations and to improve profitability.
Not all countries are hobbled by these regulations. Panelists pointed to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with its open skies regime, as a place where some airlines are reaching their full potential. These airlines are earn-ing customer loyalty with top-notch products and services, and they are not relying on government regulations to protect them from competition.
Giuseppe Orsi, Finmeccanica
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Akbar al Baker, Qatar Airways
David P. Hess, Pratt & Whitney
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Airport InvestmentAirports require enormous up-front investment. However, there are many ways to improve airports, some much less costly than building a new terminal. For instance, new technology can speed security checks and processing times for customers and cargo, thereby reduc-ing pressure on existing infrastructure. Ideally these investments involve private and government funding to align their respective interests and share risks.
Whatever improvements are made, panelists said, it is important they
have minor to zero impact on passen-gers and other stakeholders. In fact, monitoring the satisfaction of stake-holders—such as customers, airlines, ANSPs, and fuel suppliers—is crucial to ensuring that the airport authority understands their needs, as well as service gaps and requirements. Also, panelists added, the airport authority should tap the expertise of these key stakeholders when making decisions about new investments. For instance, the ANSP might offer improved operational efficiency solutions in lieu of costly new capital investments.
Cost Control and SustainabilityConference panelists noted that various stakeholders will tackle cost controls and sustainability chal-lenges differently.
From an airline’s perspective, the con-cern is energy security. Fuel already represents around a third of airline costs, a figure that could grow. Several airlines are now experimenting with ways to keep these costs in check and to reduce dependency on traditional fuels. Biofuels are gaining significance as a means to achieve sustainability.
Kevin Knight, Etihad Airways
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However, biofuels come with their own complications, irrespective of whether they are cost competitive.
A major consideration is that biofuels must not compete with the food chain or use scarce fresh water. In other words, biofuel production must be compatible with local conditions. For example, in Qatar, a 10-hectare algae crop project is proving well-suited to the dry climate.
It requires salt water/waste water, CO2, and sunlight—all of which the Middle East possesses in abundance. Panelists also noted that adopt-ing biofuels requires the coopera-tion of all stakeholders in the value chain, including regulators, farmers,
fuel refiners, aircraft OEMs, and international industry bodies such as the International Air Transport Association and the International Civil Aviation Organization.
From the fuel supplier’s perspective, the cost controls and sustainability challenges are to keep up with ever-growing demand and to cope with escalating costs. Panelists noted that the price differential between crude and jet fuel is steadily increasing as oil extracted in the Americas—which is shifting from light to heavy crude—becomes harder to convert to jet fuel. One response from Delta Airlines has been to secure its supply by investing $220 million in a refinery.
As a result of these market dynamics, fuel suppliers are also looking to biofuels. For instance, panelists estimate that 20 billion gallons of desert-grown biofuels are already being manufactured worldwide, and predict the aviation industry will try to tap into that supply to mitigate its exposure to fossil fuel price volatility. Fuel suppliers may also integrate themselves into the biomass manufacturing value chain by building the required capabilities—or they may try to acquire a competitive advantage by investing in R&D.
James Bennett, Abu Dhabi Airports Company
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However, panelists said, fuel suppli-ers face four serious constraints when developing biofuels: performance must equal that of jet fuel; biofuels must be portable and thus deliverable; the envi-ronmental impact should be minimal and compliant with global standards; and production costs must be man-ageable throughout the biofuel value chain, from the field to the refinery.
From the ANSPs’ perspective, the biggest cost controls and sustainability challenges are to meet traffic growth without compromising environmental
standards and fuel-burn performance. To achieve this goal, panelists said, ANSPs should measure the environmental efficiency of air space, in particular CO2 and fuel consumption. This data will help the industry identify and correct inefficiencies. At the same time, ANSPs must consider the environmental impact of each of their major business decisions.
MRO ChangesAs the industry becomes more global, the MRO segment is being forced to change radically. Indeed, several
new MRO business and operating models have already arisen. Among full-service airlines, MRO remains generally in-house. However, among low-cost carriers MRO is outsourced, which requires MROs to tailor services for different customers, each of which has very different MRO needs. For instance, an airline that operates its aircraft five hours a day may need to spend $3 million per plane per annum on MRO. By contrast, a carrier that runs planes 15 hours a day will have MRO needs of $9 million per plane per annum.
Rosemarie Andolino, Chicago Department of Aviation
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According to panelists, despite the industry’s globalization, few MROs—only about 15 percent of the total number—are in a position to offer the global, cost-effective service the indus-try increasingly needs. Most MROs are in the wrong locations and cannot offer a truly global platform, which puts them at a disadvantage compared with the better-funded, top-tier players. These top-tier MRO providers can transfer low-value and labor-intensive work to lower-cost locales, which allows them to use their global scale to trim costs by 20 to 30 percent.
Besides operating in a more global environment, MROs must also con-tend with changing OEM practices that cut into their business. OEMs now provide their own maintenance-related services. In addition, airline and aircraft operators can now rely more on OEMs for support with technology-intensive components. OEMs are turning out planes that are better manufactured and more reliable, which means they demand less frequent repairs. For example, the Boeing 787 does not require an overhaul for 12 years.
To be competitive in today’s increas-ingly global environment, panelists said, MROs should take a few key steps: increase scale (which will require access to more financing); form alliances with the OEMs (OEMs know about manufacturing and MROs know about in-service perfor-mance); extend the service footprint (take advantage of low-cost labor opportunities); serve the life cycle (think holistically about fleet needs as well as how to customize services that integrate fleet and data management); watch the clock (improve efficiency—
Nicole Piasecki, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
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such as by digitizing processes—to reduce repair times, increase flight times, and boost profitability); and focus on the passenger (ultimately the MRO serves the same customer as the airline, the passenger).
MRO players have to realize, panel-ists concluded, that it is not about “having the right technician with the right parts and tools at the right place and right time.” Only by aggressively increasing their efficiency and the utility of their services can MROs pass value on to their airline clients and strengthen their competitive position.
SpaceThe commercialization of space will dramatically change the industry over the next decade. Once the exclusive domain of rich and powerful govern-ments, space is becoming accessible to more countries and smaller companies. The possibilities for governments, companies, and people are boundless: from suborbital flight for travel and tourism (Europe to the U.S. would take about one hour), to the com-mercial shuttling services of goods and passengers to the International Space Station, to launching and landing orbital payloads including satellites.
For example, governments will benefit from better communications technol-ogy for national security and civil safety; companies will have access to more data to develop new products and services such as GPS navigation; people in the developed world will enjoy greater TV and Internet services, while those in more remote locations will gain connectivity for the first time. However, panelists said, the industry must overcome several challenges to realize the full potential of space commercialization: high costs, lack of government leadership, and limited access to technology and talent.
Giuseppe Giordo, Alenia Aermacchi
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Jeremy Chan, Mubadala Aerospace MRO Network
Bill Fitzgerald, GE Aviation
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High CostsSpace is extremely capital intensive and the returns are long term. Historically, payload-to-orbit prices have ranged from $10,000 to $30,000 per kilogram—a major barrier to commercial participation in the industry. Panelists at the summit noted two important innovations that could reduce costs and thus spur investment in the commercial space
industry: reusability and competition.Full reusability could reduce payload costs dramatically to as little as $100 to $300 per kg. There is encouraging progress being made on this front. A few days after the summit, a pri-vate company called SpaceX made a delivery to the International Space Station and successfully returned. Meanwhile, it has been reported that XCOR Aerospace has developed liquid
oxygen pumps and turbines with an operating life of 14 to 15 hours, good enough for multiple missions. That would be a vast improvement over the standard liquid oxygen turbine today that is good for only one 20 minute launch. Panelists argued that these kinds of advances from startups will jolt private-sector incumbents such as Arianespace and spur more innovation.
George Whitesides, Virgin Galactic
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Lack of Government LeadershipMany governments without prior involvement in space do not have space policies or regulations, much less a strategic vision for their coun-try’s participation in the industry. Panelists said that as the industry
commercializes, countries will need a clear national space policy. Ideally, a ministry would develop policies that govern specific space-related applica-tions, such as telecommunications, as well as policies that shape the space industry more holistically.
For instance, developing economies could leverage the space sector to advance their political and socioeconomic development agendas. The UAE is a case in point. The government is offering commercial companies access to its 40-year-old
Khalid Al Melhi, Bayanat
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military database of survey and mapping information through the Bayanat program. The country has also struck a landmark agreement with Virgin Galactic to develop Spaceport, a regional space hub that will host a Space Operation Center, akin to Virgin Galactic’s operational Spaceport America in New Mexico, U.S.
Limited Access to Technology and TalentGiven that governments have his-torically controlled access to space, private companies still have difficulty tapping the technology and talent necessary to get a commercial space operation off the ground. This is where public–private collaborations can be especially useful. For example,
Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. (SSTL), a British company within the EADS Astrium NV group, has been developing open, commercial off-the-shelf satellite technology for three decades (the company was previ-ously an innovation initiative of the University of Surrey). SSTL is training engineers from developing countries, such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan, in
Jean-Yves Le Gall, Arianespace
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the design, testing, manufacturing, launching, and operation of small satellites. Elsewhere, the U.K. govern-ment created the Satellite Applications Catapult, a technology and innova-tion center to help British businesses develop promising new satellite-based products and services.
There are also academic solutions to nurturing technology and talent. The UAE has worked with industry part-ners to establish several engineering programs and is adding space studies at Khalifa University of Science, Technology, and Research in Abu Dhabi. Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi
government hopes the Spaceport deal with Virgin Galactic will create a regional center for R&D and operations that will inspire and attract young people from the Middle East—just as the Apollo program in the U.S. inspired generations of Americans and other Westerners.
Andrew Nelson, XCOR Aerospace
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Panelists at the conference agreed that the aviation industry is at a turning point. The sector is poised to grow rapidly, but will change substantially in the process. Globalization and development in the emerging markets will force OEMs and the air transport industry to con-front numerous thorny challenges—an increasingly global supply chain, escalating fuel costs, the development of alternative fuels, the mandate to comply with environmental regula-tions, and the need to deploy large amounts of capital to invest in an extremely capital-intensive industry.
Meanwhile, the commercialization of space opens up exciting opportunities for governments and industry. Space is no longer solely for the largest and richest countries. Here, too, there are challenges that countries without space programs will have to confront. Where will the technology and talent for their space ambitions come from? How can public–private partnerships encourage development? Despite chal-lenges, the Global Aerospace Summit 2012 was proof positive that thought leaders are ready and willing to tackle these issues and to position their industry for significant expansion.
CONCLUSION
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About the Authors
Fadi Majdalani is a partner with Booz & Company in Beirut and the leader of the firm’s engineered products and services practice in the Middle East. His projects have included strategy-based trans-formation programs for regional airlines, civil aviation authorities, national postal operators, and railway operators, all of which were preparing for a more liberalized and deregulated environment.
Alessandro Borgogna is a partner with Booz & Company in Dubai and a senior member of the firm’s aerospace and aviation practice. He focuses on governance, strategy devel-opment, operational improve-ments, infrastructure planning, and public–private partnerships in the aerospace and aviation industries, and has worked with aircraft and engine OEMs, MRO providers, airlines, and civil aviation authorities.
Tansel Kilicarslan is a principal with Booz & Company in Dubai and a member of the firm’s aerospace and aviation prac-tice. He has led numerous proj-ects for clients in the aviation sector focusing on corporate strategy and transformation.
Leonardo Monti is a senior associate at Booz & Company in Dubai and a member of the engineered products and services practice in the Middle East. He focuses on strategy, organization, and operations in the aerospace and defense, industrial, and transportation sectors, and has worked with aerospace OEMs, civil aviation authorities, and MRO providers.
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