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Sainarayan A Chief Aviation Data and Analysis ICAO

AVIATION PERSONNEL FORECASTS

Shenzhen / 13th December 2018

2

60%

of total traffic

39th Assembly Outcome regarding Personnel Forecasts

Report on the Development of a single set of harmonized long-term forecasts (A39-WP/64) Update global and regional 20-year forecasts for pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers (DOC 9956) in April 2018 to meet the needs of the ICAO Next Generation Aviation Professional (NGAP) programme.

3

60%

of total traffic

Aviation Data and Analysis Panel met in March 2017 The Panel recommended that: a) the Secretariat should continue its work in the development of the forecast of licensed aviation professionals within the timeline proposed and with the help of the MDWG-LTF and the TFGs; and b) the Secretariat should consider other sources of information available, which can supplement existing ICAO data and results of the survey.

Traffic forecasts Endorsed by A39

Fleet forecasts Developed using Traffic

Forecasts ICAO Survey

New Personnel Forecasts

Pilots

359,337

165,852

554,304

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

2017 2037

Pilo

ts

Current Pilots New Pilots

Commercial Pilot Demand Forecasts

3%

4%

31%

41%

25%

21%

7%

7%

7%

8%

27%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2017

2037

Pe

rcen

tage

of

Tota

l Pilo

ts

Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

New pilots are estimated assuming a 3% attrition rate All personnel data and forecasts in this presentation are presented on the basis of region and country of departure

6

60%

of total traffic

Commercial Pilot Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Pilots

For this slide and rest of the presentation country level Data excludes dedicated cargo personnel

Air Traffic Controllers

Air Traffic Controller Demand Forecasts

New Air Traffic Controllers are estimated assuming a 2% attrition rate

4%

4%

33%

42%

31%

25%

12%

11%

3%

4%

18%

14%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2017

2037

Africa

Asia/Pacific

Europe

Latin America/Caribbean

Middle East

North America

85,829

54,847

106,800

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

2017 2037

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rs

Current Air Traffic Controllers New Air Traffic Controllers

Air Traffic Controller Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Air Traffic Controllers

Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew

Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew Demand Forecasts

Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew

443 204

666

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2017 2037Mai

nte

nan

ce T

ech

nic

ian

s (t

ho

usa

nd

s)

Current Techinicians New Technicians

565 262

923

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2017 2037

Cab

in C

rew

(th

ou

san

ds)

Current Cabin Crew New Cabin Crew

New Personnel are estimated assuming a 3% attrition rate

Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Technicians and Cabin Crew

Regional and Global Personnel Summary

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

MoroccoKenya

EthiopiaEgypt

Sout Africa

MoroccoKenya

EthiopiaEgypt

Sout Africa

MoroccoKenya

EthiopiaEgypt

Sout Africa

MoroccoKenya

EthiopiaEgypt

Sout Africa

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew

Personnel (thousands)

Personnel Forecast 2037

Current Personnel New Personnel

Pilots Air Traffic Controllers


Africa (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)



Asia/Pacific (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

IndonesiaJapan

AustraliaIndia

China

IndonesiaJapan

AustraliaIndia

China

IndonesiaJapan

AustraliaIndia

China

IndonesiaJapan

AustraliaIndia

China

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew






Europe (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

SpainTurkey

GermanyFrance

Unted Kingdom

SpainTurkey

GermanyFrance

Unted Kingdom

SpainTurkey

GermanyFrance

Unted Kingdom

SpainTurkey

GermanyFrance

Unted Kingdom

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew






Latin America/Caribbean (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 5 10 15 20 25

ColombiaChile

ArgentinaMexico

Brazil

ColombiaChile

ArgentinaMexico

Brazil

ColombiaChile

ArgentinaMexico

Brazil

ColombiaChile

ArgentinaMexico

Brazil

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew






Middle East (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

IsraelIran

QatarSaudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

IsraelIran

QatarSaudi Arabia


IsraelIran

QatarSaudi Arabia


IsraelIran

QatarSaudi Arabia


Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew






North America (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Canada

United States

Canada

United States

Canada

United States

Canada

United States

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

inC

rew






World (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)

0 40 80 120 160

United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom

IndiaUnited States

China


IndiaUnited States

China


IndiaUnited States

China


IndiaUnited States

China

Pil

ots

Air

Tra

ffic

Co

ntr

olle

rM

ain

tnan

ceTe

chn

icia

ns

Cab

in C

rew




Training Capacity

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Brazil

Japan

United Kingdom

China

Pilots 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity

Future capacity was projected assuming 75% utilization of training facilities

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

Brazil

Japan

United Kingdom

China

Air Traffic Controllers 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Brazil

Japan

United Kingdom

China

Maintenance Technicians 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity

Technology impact on Personnel Demand

• Ride sharing companies such as Uber plan to offer multimodal air transportation between suburbs, cities, and ultimately within cities in the future

• They will likely develop fleets of small, electric VTOL (Vertical Take-off and Landing)

• These fleet will require pilots and technicians to be maintained. The impact of this futuristic air transportation mode is not reflected in ICAO personnel forecast.

Conclusion

• Asia will lead the growth for new fleet and personnel • Analysis shows that gap exists between available training capacity and demand in fast growing

markets • Need to invest in new training capacity and or utilize available surplus capacity in more mature

markets • Addressing the gap by appropriate policy interventions is therefore essential for States to secure the

sustainable growth of air transport and maximize the social and economic benefits offered by air transport.

• States are invited to use the ICAO personnel forecast application in https://data.icao.int/trafficforecast for their planning needs. Please contact Wendy Fu [email protected] for further information.

mailto:[email protected]

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