aviation trends1).pdfaviation trends q1 2017 page 1 of 14 aviation trends quarter 1 2017 contents 1....

Aviation Trends Q1 2017 of 14

Aviation Trends

Quarter 1 2017

Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

1. Historical overview of traffic .......................................................................................................................................................................... 3

a. Terminal passengers .............................................................................................................................................................................. 4

b. Commercial flights .................................................................................................................................................................................. 5

c. Cargo tonnage ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 6

2. Terminal passengers at UK airports ............................................................................................................................................................. 7

3. Passenger flights to and from UK airports .................................................................................................................................................... 8

4. Terminal passengers at UK airports by origin/destination ............................................................................................................................. 9

5. Air cargo tonnes carried to and from UK airports ........................................................................................................................................ 10

6. All commercial flights to and from UK airports ............................................................................................................................................ 11

7. Punctuality of scheduled passenger flights to and from UK airports ........................................................................................................... 12

a. On-time performance ............................................................................................................................................................................ 12

b. Average delay....................................................................................................................................................................................... 13

Explanatory notes ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 14


Introduction Welcome to Aviation Trends. Every quarter we update key figures which summarise the levels of activity at the UK’s airports. The Aviation Trends series is available at www.caa.co.uk/aviationtrends, part of Aviation Intelligence, the online home of the CAA’s monthly airport and airline statistical publications. Please note that historic numbers may be subject to minor change as the result of prior period adjustments.1 Due to rounding of figures, there may be an apparent slight discrepancy between the sum of the constituent items and the total as shown. For a list of all statistics available on the CAA website, see www.caa.co.uk/data-and-analysis.

1 Also, in editions of Aviation Trends prior to quarter 4 2008, all figures included activity at Channel Islands and Isle of Man airports. These islands are not formally part of

the UK, and as we wish to present only the trends at UK airports, their figures are now excluded from the UK reporting airports, although travel between the UK and these airports is treated as domestic.

http://www.caa.co.uk/aviationtrends

http://www.caa.co.uk/data-and-analysis


1. Historical overview of traffic see note 5 on p.14

a. Terminal passengers

b. Cargo tonnage

c. Commercial flights

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The three time-series charts on this page show both seasonal and annual trends in UK aviation activity for terminal passengers, commercial flights and cargo tonnage. On pages 4 to 6, the top charts show traffic volume in each quarter (left axis), and the corresponding year-on-year quarterly growth rates (right axis). The bottom charts show the rolling annual total traffic in each quarter (left axis), and the year-on-year percentage growth of the rolling annual total (right axis). The highlighted data points indicate the annual traffic volumes and growth rates of the respective calendar years. In Q1 2017, UK airports handled 58 million terminal passengers, representing 6.8% growth against the same quarter in the previous year and a new high in terms of the number of passengers flown in Q1 of any previous year. On a rolling year basis, terminal passengers also hit a new record (275m pax) in Q1 2017, surpassing the previous rolling 12-month high (271m pax) set in Q4 2016. Q1 2017 saw 504 thousand commercial flights, representing 3.2% growth against the same quarter in the previous year. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, commercial flights totalled 2.27 million, representing growth of 4.1% against the 12-month period the year before (Q2 2015 to Q1 2016). Q1 2017 also saw 653 thousand tonnes of cargo pass through UK airports, representing 5.4% growth on Q1 2016. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, 2.61 million tonnes of cargo were handled at UK airports, up 3.6% on the 12-month period the year before (Q2 2015 to Q1 2016).


a. Terminal passengers

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Terminal passengers - Quarterly totals and Y-O-Y growth rates

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b. Commercial flights

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c. Cargo tonnage

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2. Terminal passengers at UK airports see note 5 on p.14

Pax (millions)

CURRENT QUARTER ROLLING YEAR

Q1 2017 Q1 2016

Q2 16 – Q1 17 Q2 15 – Q1 16

Pax (Mil)

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London Airports

36.1 62% 34.3 63% 5.3% 165.0 60% 157.4 61% 4.8%

- Scheduled 35.4 61% 33.6 62% 5.3% 160.8 59% 152.2 59% 5.6%

- Charter 0.7 1% 0.7 1% 2.4% 4.2 2% 5.2 2% -18.7%

Regional Airports

21.7 38% 19.8 37% 9.7% 109.5 40% 100.3 39% 9.2%

-Scheduled 20.4 35% 18.5 34% 10.6% 100.7 37% 88.6 34% 13.6%

- Charter 1.3 2% 1.3 2% -2.6% 8.8 3% 11.7 5% -24.3%

All Airports 57.8 100% 54.1 100% 6.9% 274.5 100% 257.7 100% 6.5%

-Scheduled 55.8 97% 52.1 96% 7.2% 261.5 95% 240.8 93% 8.6%

- Charter 2.0 3% 2.0 4% -0.9% 13.0 5% 16.8 7% -22.6%

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UK terminal passengers are those travellers who board or disembark an aircraft on a commercial flight at a reporting UK airport. The figures in this section therefore exclude transit passengers – those who remain on-board aircraft which land at a UK airport and then continue on to another destination. In Q1 2017, London airports handled 5.3% more passengers, and regional airports 9.7% more than in the same quarter last year. Scheduled passengers grew by 7.2% overall. Charter traffic on the other hand declined by 0.9%, driven mainly larger capacity reductions at regional airports. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, terminal passengers were 4.8% higher at London airports and 9.2% higher at regional airports, respectively compared to the previous rolling 12-month period. Overall for the period, UK airports handled 275m passengers in total, up by 6.5% on the previous 12 months.


3. Passenger flights to and from UK airports see note 5 on p.14

Flights

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Airports 249.5 52% 245.0 53% 1.8% 1,094.9 51% 1,061.0 52% 3.2%

- Scheduled 245.3 51% 240.5 52% 2.0% 1,070.8 50% 1,031.4 50% 3.8%

- Charter 4.2 1% 4.5 1% -6.6% 24.1 1% 29.6 1% -18.6%

Regional

Airports 228.5 48% 216.0 47% 5.8% 1,063.7 49% 996.5 48% 6.7%

- Scheduled 219.3 46% 206.7 45% 6.1% 1,008.7 47% 923.2 45% 9.3%

- Charter 9.2 2% 9.4 2% -1.1% 55.0 3% 73.3 4% -25.0%

All Airports 478.0 100% 461.0 100% 3.7% 2,158.6 100% 2,057.5 100% 4.9%

- Scheduled 464.6 97% 447.2 97% 3.9% 2,079.5 96% 1,954.6 95% 6.4%

- Charter 13.4 3% 13.8 3% -2.9% 79.1 4% 102.9 5% -23.2%

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The figures in this table are for commercial passenger flights and thus exclude air freighter flights (those carrying cargo only). In Q1 2017, the number of total passenger flights handled at UK airports increased by 3.7% to 478 thousand. There were 3.9% more scheduled flights and 2.9% fewer charter flights compared to the same quarter last year. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, the number of passenger flights handled by UK airports reached 2.16 million. The number of scheduled passenger flights was up by 6.4% whilst the number of charter passenger flights fell by 23.2% against the previous year. Looking at the regional split in Q1 2017, there were 1.8% more passenger flights at the London airports and 5.8% more passenger flights at regional airports when compared to the same quarter last year. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, the number of flights was up by 3.2% at London airports and up by 6.7% at regional airports.


4. Terminal passengers at UK airports by origin/destination see note 5 on p.14


Passengers (millions)

Q1 2017 Q1 2016

Q2 16 – Q1 17 Q2 15 – Q1 16

Pax (Mill)

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% of total

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Pax (Mill)

% of total

% chg

Domestic 10.3 18% 10.0 19% 2.4% 45.1 16% 44.3 17% 1.8%

- Scheduled 10.2 18% 10.0 18% 2.3% 44.9 16% 43.9 17% 2.2%

- Charter 0.1 0% 0.1 0% 10.7% 0.2 0% 0.4 0% -42.2%

Europe 34.5 60% 31.7 59% 8.8% 172.8 63% 158.4 61% 9.1%

- Scheduled 33.1 57% 30.2 56% 9.6% 161.8 59% 144.4 56% 12.0%

- Charter 1.4 2% 1.5 3% -6.5% 11.0 4% 14.0 5% -21.4%

North America 4.4 8% 4.3 8% 2.1% 22.8 8% 21.9 9% 4.1%

- Scheduled 4.4 8% 4.3 8% 2.1% 22.6 8% 21.8 8% 4.1%

- Charter 0.0 0% 0.0 0% -37.5% 0.2 0% 0.2 0% 9.8%

Rest of World 8.7 15% 8.1 15% 7.5% 33.7 12% 33.0 13% 2.3%

- Scheduled 8.2 14% 7.7 14% 6.9% 32.1 12% 30.7 12% 4.6%

- Charter 0.5 1% 0.4 1% 17.7% 1.6 1% 2.3 1% -28.9%

All Airports 57.8 100% 54.1 100% 6.9% 274.5 100% 257.7 100% 6.5%

- Scheduled 55.8 97% 52.1 96% 7.2% 261.5 95% 240.8 93% 8.6%

- Charter 2.0 3% 2.0 4% -1.0% 13.0 5% 16.8 7% -22.6%

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Compared to the same quarter last year, total passenger (excluding those going to/from North Sea oil rigs) increased by 6.9% across all UK reporting airports in Q1 2017. All regions experienced an increase in passenger numbers over the same period, with Europe being the best performing (+8.8%), while the North American market saw the weakest growth (+2.1%). There were 2.4% more passengers travelling on Domestic routes and 7.5% more passengers travelling to the rest of the world. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, the total number of passengers was up by 6.5%. This was made up of an increase of 9.1%, 4.1% and 1.8% and 2.3% of passengers travelling to and from Europe, North America, domestic and rest of the world respectively.


5. Air cargo tonnes carried to and from UK airports see note 5 on p.14

Tonnes (000's)


Q1 2017 Q1 2016

Q2 16 – Q1 17 Q2 15 – Q1 16

Tonnes (000's)

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% of total

% chg Tonnes (000's)

% of total

Tonnes (000's)

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% chg

Cargo only flights

194.9 30% 193.3 31% 0.9% 808.9 33% 832.7 33% -2.9%

- London 89.1 14% 84.4 14% 5.5% 329.7 13% 337.0 13% -2.2%

- Regional 105.8 16% 108.8 18% -2.8% 479.3 19% 495.7 20% -3.3%

Bellyhold cargo

458.1 70% 426.0 69% 7.5% 1,671.2 67% 1,704.6 67% -2.0%

- London 423.6 65% 395.9 64% 7.0% 1,552.0 63% 1,590.8 63% -2.4%

- Regional 34.4 5% 30.2 5% 14.1% 119.2 5% 113.8 4% 4.8%

Total cargo

653.0 100% 619.3 100% 5.4% 2,480.1 100% 2,537.3 100% -2.3%

- London 512.8 79% 480.3 78% 6.8% 1,881.7 76% 1,927.8 76% -2.4%

- Regional 140.2 21% 139.0 22% 0.9% 598.5 24% 609.4 24% -1.8%

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London Bellyhold London AirfrieghtRegional Bellyhold Regional Airfrieght

Air cargo – freight and mail – is transported into and out of the UK on air freighters and in the bellyhold of passenger aircraft. In Q1 2017, total cargo tonnage at UK airports grew by 5.4% compared with the same quarter last year. At London airports cargo tonnage grew by 6.8% while cargo tonnage at regional airports increased by 0.9%. Air freighter tonnage increased by 0.9% whilst bellyhold cargo tonnage grew by 7.5% over the same period. The weaker performance of the regional airports was driven by the 2.8% reduction in cargo tonnes transported by freighter in Q4 2016, although an increase of 14.1% in bellyhold cargo compensated for the reduction of air freighter cargo. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, total cargo tonnage handled at UK airports fell by 2.3% compared with the previous 12 month period (Q2 2015 to Q1 2016), with similar declines at both London airports and regional airports.


6. All commercial flights to and from UK airports see note 5 on p.14

Flights (000s)


Q1 2017 Q1 2016 Q2 16 – Q1 17 Q2 15 – Q1 16

Flights (000's)

% of total

Flights (000's)

% of total

% chg Flights (000's)

% of total

Flights (000's)

% of total

% chg

Airfreighter 13.2 3% 13.3 3% -0.1% 52.7 2% 55.7 3% -5.3%

- London 3.9 1% 3.7 1% 4.4% 15.6 1% 14.3 1% 9.6%

- Regional 9.4 2% 9.6 2% -1.9% 37.1 2% 41.4 2% -10.4%

Passenger flights

478.0 97% 461.0 97% 3.7% 2,159.0 98% 2,057.6 97% 4.9%

- London 249.5 51% 245.0 52% 1.8% 1,094.9 50% 1,061.0 50% 3.2%

- Regional 228.5 47% 216.0 46% 5.8% 1,064.2 48% 996.6 47% 6.8%

Total flights 491.3 100% 474.3 100% 3.6% 2,211.8 100% 2,113.2 100% 4.7%

- London 253.4 52% 248.7 52% 1.9% 1,110.5 50% 1,075.3 51% 3.3%

- Regional 237.9 48% 225.6 48% 5.5% 1,101.2 50% 1,038.0 49% 6.1%

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The number of commercial flights at reporting UK airports is a measure of commercial aviation activity in the UK. It includes both passenger and cargo flights, but excludes military flights, general aviation, and aircraft that pass through UK airspace without landing. The total number of commercial flights in the UK was up 3.6% in Q1 2017 compared to the same quarter last year – the combined effect of a 3.7% increase in the number of passenger flights and a 0.1% decrease in the number of freighter flights. Overall for the same quarter, London airports and regional airports grew at 1.9% and 5.5% respectively. For the rolling 12 months to Q1 2017, the total number of commercial flights reached 2.21m, up by 4.7% compared with the previous rolling 12 months (Q2 2015 to Q1 2016). Commercial flights at London airports rose by 3.3% while at regional airports the increase was 6.1%.


7. Punctuality of scheduled passenger flights to and from UK airports see note 6 on p.14

a. On-time performance

Matched scheduled passenger flights

(000s), % of flights on-time

Q1 2017 Q1 2016 Change (%

points) Flights (000s)

% on-time

Flights (000s)

% on-time

London Airports 243.1 77% 238.4 78% -1

- Gatwick 57.1 72% 53.6 71% +1

- Heathrow 110.6 81% 111.6 81% 0

- London City 19.4 79% 19.6 77% +2

- Luton 22.2 72% 19.3 74% -2

- Stansted 33.7 75% 34.3 80% -5

Regional Airports 191.5 79% 178.5 81% -2

- Aberdeen 11.1 81% 11.3 82% -1

- Belfast City 8.4 86% 9.1 88% -2

- Belfast International 9.0 80% 7.4 84% -4

- Birmingham 21.7 78% 19.6 82% -4

- Bournemouth 0.5 76% 0.6 73% +3

- Bristol 12.2 76% 10.8 81% -5

- Cardiff 3.1 80% 2.7 80% 0

- Doncaster Sheffield 1.5 80% 1.0 71% +9

- Durham Tees Valley 0.9 81% 0.9 80% +1

- East Midlands 5.6 83% 5.4 84% -1

- Edinburgh 23.7 79% 22.6 81% -2

- Exeter 2.3 78% 2.0 83% -5

- Glasgow 18.1 80% 17.5 81% -1

- Jersey 4.6 78% 5.0 78% 0

- Leeds Bradford 6.3 85% 5.6 81% +4

- Liverpool 7.5 80% 8.5 80% 0

- Manchester 38.0 77% 33.8 79% -2

- Newcastle 8.3 85% 7.1 83% +2

- Southampton 8.8 81% 7.6 85% -4

All Airports 434.6 78% 418.5 79% -1

Punctuality of arriving and departing passenger flights is measured by comparing actual and planned times of operation. The data covers 24 airports. On-time performance is defined as the proportion of flights arriving or departing early or up to and including 15 minutes late. It is calculated from the scheduled on-stand time, the reported runway time and the expected time an aircraft takes to travel between a stand and the runway.

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-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

London Airports - Gatwick - Heathrow - London City - Luton - StanstedRegional Airports - Aberdeen - Belfast City - Belfast International - Birmingham - Bournemouth - Bristol - Cardiff - Doncaster Sheffield - Durham Tees Valley - East Midlands - Edinburgh - Exeter - Glasgow - Jersey - Leeds Bradford - Liverpool - Manchester - Newcastle - SouthamptonAll Airports

Q1 2017: y-o-y change in on-time performance(% points)


b. Average delay

Matched scheduled passenger flights

(000s), Average Delay (min)

Q1 2017 Q1 2016 Change in Avg. delay (min)

Flights (000s)

Avg. Delay (min)

Flights (000s)

Avg. Delay (min)

London Airports 243.1 13 238.4 12 +1

- Gatwick 57.1 16 53.6 17 -1

- Heathrow 110.6 11 111.6 11 0

- London City 19.4 12 19.6 12 0

- Luton 22.2 15 19.3 14 +1

- Stansted 33.7 13 34.3 11 +2

Regional Airports 191.5 12 178.5 12 0

- Aberdeen 11.1 12 11.3 12 0

- Belfast City 8.4 8 9.1 8 0

- Belfast International 9.0 12 7.4 10 +2

- Birmingham 21.7 13 19.6 11 +2

- Bournemouth 0.5 12 0.6 17 -5

- Bristol 12.2 14 10.8 12 +2

- Cardiff 3.1 13 2.7 12 +1

- Doncaster Sheffield 1.5 12 1.0 20 -8

- Durham Tees Valley 0.9 12 0.9 15 -3

- East Midlands 5.6 10 5.4 11 -1

- Edinburgh 23.7 12 22.6 11 +1

- Exeter* 2.3 14 2.0 11 +3

- Glasgow 18.1 12 17.5 11 +1

- Jersey 4.6 16 5.0 13 +3

- Leeds Bradford 6.3 9 5.6 13 -4

- Liverpool 7.5 13 8.5 13 0

- Manchester 38.0 13 33.8 12 +1

- Newcastle 8.3 9 7.1 12 -3

- Southampton 8.8 13 7.6 11 +2

All Airports 434.6 13 418.5 12 +1

Average delay per flight across the 24 monitored airports was 13 minutes for Q1 2017. This represented an increase in average delay by 1 minute against the same quarter last year. Average delay for Heathrow, London City, Aberdeen, Belfast City and Liverpool remained unchanged. Six airports experienced a decrease in average delay while 12 airports experienced an increase in delay. The airport with the shortest average delay in Q1 2017 was Belfast City (8 minutes), whilst Jersey and Gatwick saw the longest average delay (16 minutes).

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London Airports

- Gatwick

- Heathrow

- London City

- Luton

- Stansted

Regional Airports

- Aberdeen

- Belfast City

- Belfast International

- Birmingham

- Bournemouth

- Bristol

- Cardiff

- Doncaster Sheffield

- Durham Tees Valley

- East Midlands

- Edinburgh

- Exeter

- Glasgow

- Jersey

- Leeds Bradford

- Liverpool

- Manchester

- Newcastle

- Southampton

All Airports

Q1 2017: y-o-y change in average delay (min)


Explanatory notes

1. The Civil Aviation Authority data is prepared with the co-operation of the United Kingdom airport and airline operators. The assistance from all these organisations is

gratefully acknowledged.

2. The information contained in this report has been compiled from various sources and it is not possible for the CAA to check and verify whether it is accurate and correct,

nor does the CAA undertake to do so. Consequently the CAA cannot accept any liability for any financial loss caused by any person's reliance on it.

3. More detailed data are available from the Civil Aviation Authority website at the following address - www.caa.co.uk/aviationintelligence.

4. The CAA is the UK's specialist aviation regulator whose regulatory activities range from ensuring the aviation industry meets the highest safety standards to preventing

holidaymakers from being stranded abroad because of tour operator insolvency.

5. Explanatory notes for Parts 1 to 6:

Notes Applicable to Part

1 2 3 4 5 6

Tables and charts are generated from data in CAA Airport Statistics. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

All data excludes the activity of Air Taxis – those aircraft with maximum take-off weights of less than 15 tonnes flying non-scheduled

services. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

London airports are Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City and Southend. Regional Airports are all other UK airports, this

category includes the Channel Island Airports – Jersey, Guernsey, and Alderney – and the Isle of Man, which are not formally part of the

UK.

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Exclude traffic to and from North Sea oilrigs. ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Terminal passengers are those commencing their journey or connecting between flights at the airport, but exclude transit passengers who

do not disembark. ✓ ✓ ✓

Cargo comprises mail and freight. ✓ ✓ ✓

For the purposes of this report, World Areas are defined as follows:

Domestic - the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man (these numbers are not adjusted for the double counting which

occurs when both airports report arriving and departing passengers to the CAA); Europe - geographical Europe including Turkey and the

former Soviet Union states; North America - USA, Canada and Puerto Rico; Rest of World - all other countries.

✓

A destination is defined to be where a passenger boards or alights the aircraft on which they arrived or departed from the reporting airport;

it is not necessarily the first or last stop of a multi-sector flight. ✓

6. Explanatory notes for Part 7:

• In these punctuality data, 'delay' is recorded as the difference between an aircraft's scheduled and actual arrival or departure time at the airport terminal. It does not

therefore measure any delay, such as that due to congestion, which has already been allowed for in the planned flight times of the service.

• Average delay is the total minutes of delay recorded by all flights (with early arriving flights counted as zero delay) divided by the total number of flights monitored.

• On-time performance and delay is calculated from the scheduled on-stand time (provided by Airport Co-ordination Ltd.), the reported runway time (provided by the

airport) and the expected time an aircraft takes to travel between a stand and the runway (taxiing time – calculated from historic data). The use of average taxi times

is sufficient for calculating an aggregate level of on-time performance, but would not be suitable for reviewing the punctuality of an individual flight.

• The statistics cover only those flights which were operated and do not cover those flights which were cancelled.

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