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WEEKAVIATION

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I n t e r n a t i o n a l

New Thinking On Close Air SupportPAGE 54


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After GazaPAGES DTI 8, DTI 18

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A-10s Last Stand?

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$14.95 MARCH 30 - APRIL 12, 2015

WEEKAVIATION

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I n t e r n a t i o n a l

New Thinking On Close Air SupportPAGE 54


Germanys

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Israeli Defense

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Editor-In-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo

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SESSIONS INCLUDE:

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SPACE

30 Commercial eet operator SES talk-ing to suppliers about potential to

service spacecraft high above ISS

31 Launcher, spacecraft builders posi-tioning themselves to appeal to

designers of smallsat constellations

33 First ight for Chinas Long March 7launcher pushed at least into 2016

due to unannounced problem

DEFENSE

34 Malaysia probably will order ghters in 2016-20 to replace a MiG-29

eet that is already declining

35 Further cuts to Britains defense spending next year could mean U.K.

fails to meet NATO requirement

36 Korea Aerospace Industries picks Airbus H155 as the basis for LCH-

LAH civil and military rotorcraft

TECHNOLOGY

37 757 ecoDemonstrator will test per-formance and fuel-burn improve-

ments from natural laminar ow

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

38 Investigators determine that Germanwings A320 was crashed

on purpose by the rst of cer

39 Germanwings crash could spur re-vival of technology solutions to scut-

tle deliberate aircraft downings

40 Singapore, Hong Kong govern-ments throw their weight behind

major airport expansion projects

42 WestJet prepares to take delivery of 767s for eventual deployment on

routes to Europe or Middle East

CIVIL AIRCRAFT ADVANCES

44 Boeing assesses 787 ecoDemon- strator results as 757 joins pro-

gram to focus on aerodynamic tests

47 Suite of technology demonstrations through 2015 home in on ambitious

environmental performance goals

48 Pratt & Whitney develops unique solution to the challenges of small-

scale parts in future turbofans

51 Europe sets sights on 2050 targets for civil aviation with Clean Sky 2

environmental research program

This week Aviation Week publishes two print editions. On the cover far left, Boeings T-38 chase plane creates the optical phenomenon of a glory on a cloud beneath a shadow cast by the companys 787 ecoDemonstrator during a NASA-related test ight. Boeing photo by John D. Parker. A special report on new technologies for commercial aircraft begins on page 44. Also in both editions are reports on close air support (page 54), Sikorsky (page 58) and our Lau reate Awards (page 64). On the cover of our Defense Technology International edition, an A-10 drops ordnance during training at the Weapons School at Nellis AFB, Nevada. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Brett Clashman.

Aviation Week publishes a digital edition every week. Read it at AviationWeek.com/awst and on our app.

ON THE COVER S

AVIATION WEEK& S P A C E T E C H N O L O G Y

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/MARCH 30-APRIL 12, 2015 AviationWeek.com/awst

Digital Extras Tap this icon in articles in the digital edition of AW&ST for exclusive features. If you have not signed up to receive your digital subscription, go to ow.ly/AkXJo

Winner 2013

ContentsMarch 30-April 12, 2015 Volume 177 Number 6

8 Feedback 10 Whos Where 15-16 First Take 18 Up Front 19 Going Concerns 20 Inside Business Aviation 22 Airline Intel 23 Reality Check 24 Leading Edge 26 Commanders Intent 27 In Orbit 28 Washington Outlook 71 Classi ed 72 Contact Us 73 Aerospace Calendar

64This years Aviation Week Laureate Award winners are anked at the

Washington ceremony by Aviation Week President Gregory Hamilton

(far right), Editor-in-Chief Joseph C. Anselmo (far left) and NASA

Administrator Charles Bolden (second from right).

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54

UNMANNED SYSTEMS

53 Europes risk-based approach would minimize regulation of low-risk unmanned-aircraft operations

CLOSE AIR SUPPORT

54 USAF looks to a new generation of technologies and tactics for close-air-support mission

ARMY AVIATION

58 Fleet retirements, procurement cuts key to keeping U.S. Army aviation modernization on track

58 U.S. Army pushing ahead with a restructuring designed to protect investment in future rotorcraft

DEFENSE

61 Testers say software patch gets Joint Strike Fighter closer to promise of multiship data fusion

63 U.K. balances keeping costs low and retaining its helicopter manufacturing capability

LAUREATES 2015

64 Aviation Weeks 58th annual Laureate Awards ceremony salutes aerospace sectors high achievers

EDITORIALS

74 Giving up Sikorsky is shortsighted and could prove to be more of a disservice than a boon to investors

74 Federal labs should lead the government-industry conver-sation on cutting defense costs


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CLOSE TO HOME

EAGLE REBIRTH PAINSIt is utterly ridiculous that the U.S.

Air Forces premier air superiority ghter requires support from fourth-generation ghters to accomplish its primary mission (AW&ST March 16-29, p. 46). OK, the Raptor wasnt built with

an infrared search-and track (IRST) system, but why has it taken so long to gure this out? While believing that stealth was the ultimate trump card, the service left the back door open by not reacting to program cancellations. Instead of equipping 40-year-old aircraft with an IRST pod, Raptors should be tted with distributed aper-

ture systems from the F-35 program. USAF should also consider stealth drop tanks for the F-22 to enhance performance in support of the so-called Pacic Pivot.Dan JurchenkoMANSFIELD, TEXAS

COOPERATION = BETTER CONOPSIn a recent Viewpoint, Deputy De-

fense Secretary Robert O. Work states that the U.S. will seek to identify a new concept of operations (Conops) as we did in the Cold War (AW&ST March 16-29, p. 74), which will be very difcult, again, for three big reasons; he lists one I nd particularly irksome.Work says: We nd ourselves in

a very diferent competitive environ-ment where all the major technological advances are being pushed primarily by the commercial sector.I dont get it. Are the defense and

commercial sectors in competition? Major commercial technological ad-vances would seem to make the Defense Departments Science & Technology aspect easier, allowing them to focus en-tirely on non-civilian applications while capitalizing on the tremendous military opportunities presented by civilian advances (I could list hundreds). Jim SandbergBUSHWOOD, MARYLAND

STREAMLINE ATP REQUIREMENTSIn regard to the upcoming pilot

shortage, I can remember in the mid-1960s that United Airlines ofered ight training for anyone with a college degree and no previous aviation expe-rience. After completion of training the applicants were hired as First Ofcers and training costs were paid via pay-roll deductions. The U.S. Air Force, Navy, and Ma-

rine Corps had programs that gradu-ated non-college-educated pilots with as little as 250 hr. who started ying in the right seat of C-141, P-3, and C-130 aircraft, and later became aircraft commanders. Additionally, the Army warrant ofcer rotary-wing aviator program graduated 18-19-year-old helicopter pilots, many of whom went on to become airline pilots.The real solution is to demonstrate to

Congress that the 1,500-hr. air trans-port pilot (ATP) requirement for new airline hires needs to be rescinded, and for the airlines to help fund training as United did in the 60s. The restricted ATP is merely a way around the pres-ent day law and adds to the nancial burden of the civilian-trained pilot.Craig WheelWILMINGTON, DELAWARE

CAS BY OTHER MEANSDomino Efect (AW&ST March

2-15, p. 49) discusses the imminent retirement of the venerable A-10, yet it does not mention the Armys view of the retirement. The A-10 grew out of a set of require-

ments for a Close Air Support (CAS) aircraft that resulted from an extensive Efects Study conducted by the Ballis-tics Research Laboratory at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, just after World War II. The A-10 has proven to be an excellent result; one wonders how CAS will be provided while the Army waits years more for the F-35 to arrive? The Navy says it can provide CAS

at a fraction of the cost with a cruise missile and a laser cannonwhy isnt it being provided now?In terms of cost-efectiveness, it is

hard to imagine the F-35 really being a very good option, although we did see the B2 used for that mission (once) during the Iraqi war.The F-35 looks like another of those

great designs that can do everything, but none of it well. The Air Force does not want the A-10, but neither did it want the F-5 years ago. It was forced

on them by Congress, but it turned out to be a very good weaponand the basis for the long-lived T-38.Maybe we should be looking for a

replacement for the A-10, and rethink-ing the assignment of that mission to the Air Force.Arne SandbergCODY, WYOMING

ADDING TO ADDITIVE HONORSPratt & Whitney congratulates Greg

Morris for his pioneering work on addi-tive manufacturing (AM) in aerospace. Our entire industry has beneted from his work at Morris Technologies.We have been working with AM

since the 1980s, and are looking for-ward to an upcoming milestonethe rst production PW1500G engines with AM parts will be delivered later this year. Among the more than 2,000 additive

manufactured metal prototype parts Pratt has made to support develop-ment engines, we will begin produc-ing compressor stators and sync ring brackets for our production engines in the coming months. Additive manu-facturing ofers signicant benets to the production of jet engines, and we applaud Aviation Weeks recognition of this through awarding Greg Morris a Laureate (see page 68).Tom Prete, Vice President, EngineeringPratt & WhitneyEAST HARTFORD, CONNECTICUT

CORRECTION: Photo credits for the story on

pp. 39-41 of the March 16-29 issue were switched.

Photos on pp. 39 and 41 were by Nigel Howarth.

The image on page 40 was by Keith Gaskell.

Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes the opinions of its readers on issues raised in the magazine. Address letters to the Executive Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology, 1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, Va. 22209. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail to: [email protected] should be shorter than 200 words, and you must give a genuine identification, address and daytime telephone number. We will not print anonymous letters, but names will be withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.


EVERY ROTATION IS REVOLUTIONARY.

Carrier | Otis | Pratt & Whitney | Sikorsky | UTC Aerospace Systems


president-sales and marketing; Larry Glasscock senior vice president-global accounts; and Jan Willem van t Riet senior vice president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and global aviation, all for MNX Glob-al Logistics, Irvine, California. Greg Mitchell has become se-

nior vice president-MRO services for Marana (Arizona) Aerospace Solutions. He was head of techni-cal activities for AerCap Aviation Solutions and had been director of aircraft acquisitions and eet management for Global Avia-tion Holdings. Mitchell succeeds Steve Maceyko, who has been named deputy executive director of business administration for the Atlanta Airlines Terminal Corp.Letitia Long has been ap-

pointed to the board of directors of Vancouver-based UrtheCast. She was director of the U.S. National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and had been deputy director of the U.S. Defense In-telligence Agency.

U.S. Army Maj. Gen. Allen W. Batschelet has been named chief of staf of U.S. Strategic Com-mand, Ofutt AFB, Nebraska. He has been commanding general of U.S. Army Recruiting Com-mand, Fort Knox, Kentucky, and succeeds Maj. Gen. John Uberti, who is now deputy commanding general of III Corps, Fort Hood, Texas. Maj. Gen. Peter D. Utley has been appointed chief of the U.S. Military Training Mission Saudi Arabia of U.S. Central Command. He has been com-manding general of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. Utley will be succeeded by Brig. Gen. Daniel L. Kar-bler, who has been director for joint and integration in the Ofce of the Deputy Army Chief of Staf at the Pentagon. Kyle Davis (see photos) has become

executive director of marketing for busi-ness and commercial aviation training for New York-based FlightSafety Interna-tional. He was a product director. Brian Moore has been promoted to manager from assistant manager of the Wichita East Learning Center. He succeeds Deb-

Leda Chong

Andy Schwarz

Lee Anne Tait

Kyle Davis

Frederic Grehal

Brian Moore

John Harrison has been appointed general counsel for the Airbus Group. He has been group general

counsel of Technip in Paris and suc-ceeds Peter M. Kleinschmidt, who will remain senior legal adviser to the CEO and the group general counsel. Pierre de Bausset has been named president of Airbus Group India, succeeding Yves Guillaume, who will remain until the end of 2015. De Bausset has been the groups corporate secretary Leda Chong (see photos) has become

senior vice president-strategic planning and Lee Anne Tait vice president-qual-ity for the Gulfstream Aerospace Corp., Savannah, Georgia. Chong was senior vice president for Asia-Pacic and had been staf vice president-government relations for Gulfstream parent General Dynamics. Tait was vice president-qual-ity and mission assurance at Aerojet Rocketdyne.Larry Levine has been appointed

vice president for global airline and commercial aircraft OEM business development for the Astronautics Corp. of Milwaukee. He was vice president-marketing and sales at Teledyne Controls and had been director of cus-tomer solutions at Boeing.Morten Brandtzaeg has been

named president/CEO of the Norway-based Nordic Ammunition Co. (Nammo), efective Aug. 26. He will succeed Edgar Fossheim, who will be retiring. Brandt-zaeg is executive vice president of the the Missile Products Div. and was CFO.USAF Lt. Gen. (ret.) Michael J.

Basla has become senior vice pres-ident-strategic development for L-3 National Security Solutions, Reston, Virginia. He was chief of information dominance and chief information of-cer for the Ofce of the Secretary of the Air Force and had been vice com-mander of Air Force Space Command.Frederic Grehal (see photos) has

been appointed general manager for France for Circor Aerospace & Defense and Andy Schwarz sales director for California. Grehal was vice president/head of the Nuclear, Oil and Gas, De-fense and Specialties unit at Aubert et Duval. Schwarz held sales leadership positions with The Merex Group, RIX Industries, Northrop Grumman and Aeromax Industries.Lori Mildren has been named vice

bie Jones, who has retired.Robert J. Keady has been

appointed to the board of directors of the Willis Lease Finance Corp., Novato, Cali-fornia. He succeeds W. Wil-liam Coon, Jr., who resigned. Keady is a senior adviser to Mitsubishi Aircraft, a member of the board of advisers of ASE Holdings, St. Paul, Minnesota, and president of the Eastern Aviation Consulting Group, Glastonbury, Connecticut.Lars Sandahl Sorensen is

returning to SAS Scandinavian Airlines as group director/chief operating ofcer, ef-fective May 1. He held those positions at ISS and had been commercial group director.Barbara Dunlavey has be-

come executive director of Ar-lington, Virginia-based Women In Defense. She was executive director for the Society of Maintenance and Reliability Professionals and its educa-tional foundation.Steven Schafer has been

appointed to the board of di-rectors of St. Louis-based LMI Aerospace Inc. He succeeds Joseph Burstein. Schafer was vice president/general manager for supplier management for Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

USN Rear Adms. (lower half) John P. Neagley and Paul A. Sohl have been nominated for rear admiral. Neagley is deputy commander of Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command in San Diego. Sohl has been nominated for promotion to rear ad-miral. He is commander of the Fleet Readiness Centers/assistant com-mander for logistics and industrial operations of Naval Air Systems Com-mand, Patuxent River, Maryland.Luis Tapia has been named repair

control manager for CRS Jet Spares, Fort Lauderdale, Florida. c

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Whos Where

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First Take

DEFENSE

Korea Aerospace Industries has selected Airbus Helicopters H155 as the basis for the Light Civil Helicopter (LCH) to enter service in 2020 and de-rivative Light Armed Helicopter (LAH) to become operational with the South Korean army in 2022. The army needs at least 200 LAHs (page 36).

Turkey has issued a request for infor-mation to manufacturers interested in participating in the TF-X indigenous ghter program, seeking input on what capabilities they can of er. The indigenously designed, developed and produced TF-X is planned to y in the early 2020s and replace the Turkish air forces F-16 eet in the 2030s.

Boeing and Saab are jointly targeting the Ground-Launched Small-Diame-ter Bomb at Multiple Launch Rocket System operators demilitarizing their M26 artillery rockets to comply with the Oslo Convention on cluster muni-tions. Three demonstration ights were conducted in February, and the weapon could be operational within 18-24 months of a contract award.

There will likely be two U.S. next-generation ghter X-plane proto-types, one for the Air Force and one for the Navy, under the Pentagons Aerospace Innovation Initiative, says the deputy director of Darpa, which

will lead the ef ort. The prototypes will integrate technologies for air-dom-inance ghters to enter service after 2030.

United Technologies is assessing strategic al-ternatives for Sikorsky,including spinning of the helicopter manufacturer because it is not suf ciently pro table . As a platform provider with the Pentagon as its biggest customer, Sikorsky cannot match the margin or growth protections of UTCs other, mainly commercial, aerospace units (page 58).

A software patch is being flight-tested to improve the fusion of the threat picture within a formation of Lockheed Martin F-35s. Data from different sensors is shared across a secure network and blended into a single display, but fusion has been less than perfect. The upgrade is expected to reduce pilot workload and improve awareness of the battle-field (page 61).

Airbus Group has sold a 17.5% stake in rival ghter manufacturer Das-sault Aviation, raising 1.64 billion

($1.8 billion). Dassault Aviation bought back a 5% stake for 451 million and, with parent Dassault Group, now holds around 61% of the share capital. Airbus still holds just under 25%.

As the U.S. Army retires its Bell OH-58B Kiowa Warrior rotorcraft to save money, the rst unit to take over the armed scout role using a combina-tion of Boeing AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and Textron Systems RQ-7Bv2 Shadow tactical unmanned aircraft has been formed (page 58).

COMMERCIAL AVIATION

Boeing is test- ying a 757 with an actively blown vertical tail and new

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G


wing leading-edge sections, which could pave the way for use of natural laminar ow and active ow control in future airliners. The aircraft is the companys third ecoDemonstra-tor, and Boeing is planning a series of follow-on technology testbeds (pages 37 and 44).

Germanwings Flight 9525 was deliberately crashed by the rst ofcer ying the Airbus A320 into the ground, killing all 150 people onboard, according to investigators. The March 24 ight was en route from Barcelona, Spain, to Dusseldorf, Germany. After locking the captain out of the cockpit, the copilot apparently initiated the descent. The aircraft hit a mountain in the French Alps (page 38).

As U.S. airlines and labor unions step up their campaign against alleged subsidies for the Big Three Gulf carriersEmirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airwayskey players in European transport policy are seeking to negotiate a new agree-ment with Gulf states to regulate state support. Gulf countries and carriers are strongly resisting the effort (page 22).

Bombardier has own the fth and nal test vehicle for the initial 110-seat CS100 version of CSeries. FTV5, the rst with a cabin interior, joined the program on March 18. Testing of the CS100, and rst 135-seat CS300, has passed 1,200 hr., but new CEO Alaine Bellemare is reviewing the certication schedule.

SPACE

The rst two all-electric satellites have begun an eight-month jour-ney to nal orbit after launch atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 on March 1. The twin Boeing 702SP spacecraft for Eutelsat and Asian Broadcast Satellite use xenon-ion thrusters for both station-keeping and orbit-raising and weigh half that of the equivalent chemical-propulsion satellites.

Sierra Nevada Corp. has entered NASAs second-round competition for unmanned vehicles to deliver cargo to the International Space Station (ISS) with an autonomous version of

First Take

aircraft for which Amazon has received FAA experimental certi-cation is already obsolete and no longer being own, the online retail giant says, lamenting the time it took to gain approval for outdoor testing in the U.S. Amazon has applied for approval to y a more advanced UAS and hopes this permission will be granted quickly.

Europes follow-on civil aeronautics research program, Clean Sky 2, faces the challenge of balancing near-term large-scale integrated demon-strations of mature technologies with longer-term research into break-through ideas for 2035 and beyond (page 51).its lifting-body Dream Chaser with

folding wings and a pressurized/un-pressurized cargo trailer. The vehicle initially would be launched on an Atlas V or Ariane 5.

SES of Luxembourg, the worlds largest satellite eet operator by revenue, says the Jupiter space tug proposed by Lockheed Martin to ferry cargo to the ISS could serve a variety of functions aimed at lowering the cost of building, launching and oper-ating geostationary satellites. This includes refreshing payload technolo-gies on orbit (page 30).

TECHNOLOGY

The European Aviation Safety Agency is proposing a framework for civil unmanned-aircraft opera-tions with three categories based on risk, the lowest of which would not involve any oversight by aviation au-thorities. The Concept of Operations for Drones says UAVs should be regulated in a manner proportionate to the risk of the specic operation (page 53).

Operators with exemptions from FAA airworthiness requirements to enable low-risk small unmanned aircraft ights now have blanket au-thorization to y below 200 ft. altitude under an interim policy to speed the startup of commercial operations. The FAA also has streamlined exemptions for applications similar to already ap-proved operations.

The package-delivery unmanned

21 YEARS AGO IN AW&ST

The Boeing 777 jet was rolled out in high style on April 9, 1994. To accommodate 100,000 invited employees, customers and suppliers, the company held a series of 15 continuous rollout ceremonies from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. Aviation Week reported the 777 was being introduced to a tentative market. Today, Boeing has taken orders for nearly 1,700 777s and will introduce a radically updated version, the 777X, at the end of this decade.

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ORBITAL-ATK

COMMENTARY

The reasons for this surge vary with the motivations of the involved parties. Dave Thompson, now Orbital-ATKs CEO and president, noted in a March 12 speech that discussions began more than two years ago with ATKs Mark DeYoung included shared views that defense spending would be constrained for the foreseeable future and customers would be more interested in afordability. Harriss CEO in a March 3 presenta-

tion at a JP Morgan conference seemed to take a diferent view, that defense markets would be rising and Exelis brought scale and capabilities that could help accelerate Harriss growth. Justication for the strategic review of Sikorsky rested on the t of this ven-erable platform provider compared to the rest of United Technologies aerospace businesses, which are self-described systems providers.There are two sides to every deal, and

clearly there may be some underlying factors that are not discussed as openly. One point of diference is on defense market expectations. The consensus is that the U.S. market is bottoming, but thats arguable. Some defense sectors face more vibrant commercial and non-traditional competitors and there are companies that will have to up their

Last year marked a reversal from a dearth of defense-sector restructuring, and the pace has not slowed in 2015. Orbital Sciences Corp. and the ATK Defense Group completed their

merger. Harris is buying Exelis. Airbus and Finmeccanica have

been housecleaning by selling of parts of their defense portfolios.

SAIC announced it was buying Sitor, and most recently, United

Technologies said it was exploring options for Sikorsky while

Gencorp plans a corporate-wide restructuring to reduce costs.

The Rise of Defense Middleweights Competition surges at new corporate level

velopment of $324 million, which is roughly 35-65% of the amount reported by Boeing Defense, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Raytheon. Management focus is another intan-

gible from restructuring. It is debatable whether Huntington Ingalls, which was spun of from Northrop Grumman in 2011 could have performed as well if it had remained part of a diversied heritage defense systems enterprise. MBDAs ownership simplication could entail greater agility and if Sikorsky is spun of as a free-standing public compa-ny, its management may be able to make decisions that had not been possible.Industry structure should continue

to evolve in 2015-18. There may not be a land-grab type of mergers-and-acqui-sitions boom where a move by one cor-poration or enterprise triggers rushes by others to tie up with remaining proper-ties. The evolution of the sector may depend more on discrete developments and follow a path of action-reaction. The outlook for U.S. and European

defense budgets is one obvious devel-opment. If the new middleweightsHarris and Orbital-ATK (whose Aircraft Survivability Equipment suite is shown above) and possibly Sikorsky prove to be more competitive, that could force other companies to rethink their strategies and positioning. Major program down-selects in

2015, particularly the long-range strike bomber program that pits Boeing and Lockheed Martin against Northrop Grumman, are potential trigger.s There are still other military aero-space opportunities, including the T-X trainer and sixth-generation ghter development. The Joint Light Tactical Vehicle program for which AM Gen-eral, Lockheed Martin and Oshkosh are competing is another. A number of private equity rms need to realize value from investments in defense services made several years ago.Combinations of the largest defense

companies may still be of limits, particu-larly since the architect of a policy pro-hibiting such deals is now U.S. secretary of defense. There may be room for more portfolio-shaping at the primes, but the creation of an $80-100 billion behemoth may weigh too heavily on customer desire for competition that keeps costs in check and spurs innovation. c

games to stay in the running. Space launch and satellites come to mind. More investment may be needed to stay com-petitive and it could weigh on margins and free cash ow in 2015-18. For some managements, that prospect and the impact it could have on a stock price or broader corporate nancial expectations might trigger a decision to divest and let someone else do the heavy lifting.Industry restructuring should con-

tinue, and it will reshape the competitive landscape. While it may take until 2018 or beyond to see the full implications of recently announced deals and actions, they point to the emergence of more competitive middleweight defense com-panies. Cost synergies should be realized in 2015-16 and appear to be the normal ones associated with reduction of du-plicative overhead, but at the margin to make new companies more competitive. The more interesting potential

synergies lie in sales opportunities, either through new customer penetra-tion or new program wins that were not possible by stand-alone companies. These may be more difcult to achieve, but they are part of the Orbital-ATK integration plan. Harris-Exelis, on a pro-forma basis for 2014, reported company-funded research and de-

Up Front By Byron Callan

Contributing columnist Byron Callan is a director at Capital Alpha Partners.

Going Concerns

COMMENTARY

Just days before, Alcoa closed on its acquisition of Germany-based titanium casting company Tital. That dealwhich delivered contracts with the Airbus Group, Safrans Snecma and Rolls-Roycewould have been noteworthy alone, except it was overshadowed by Alcoas $2.85 billion acquisition in November of the parent company of Firth Rixson, a leading provider of rings and forgings for aircraft engines.While details

of the Tital deal were not disclosed, the others totaled $4.35 billion. What could spur Alcoa, the No. 3 producer of aluminum, to pony up maybe $5 billion in less than a year? Aerospace and defense market share. When it announced the Firth acquisition, Alcoa described it as a major accelera-tion in its big shift toward A&D. Before the deal, Firth claimed the No. 1 global position in seamless rolled jet engine rings, which are engineered from nickel-based superalloys and titanium. RTI brings even more scale, or heft. Based on pro-forma 2014 estimates, adding RTI to Alcoa boosts the latters aerospace revenue to 13% of total sales.

Please welcome the major midtiers.On March 9, metals giant Alcoa said it will buy RTI Inter-national Metals, a global supplier of titanium and specialty met-

als and services for the commercial aerospace, defense, energy

and medical device markets, in a stock deal worth $1.5 billion.

Majors in the MiddleAs industry consolidates, large providers under

the primes and OEMs are crystallizing

While some Wall Street analysts grumble that Alcoa paid richly for RTIabout a 50% premium to its closing price March 6none appear to doubt the strategic reasons for bulking up in A&D. For starters, there is the nine-year back-log of airliner orders at Airbus and Boe-ing, as well as the potential for defense budgets to start rising in the West.Then in September, Alcoa and

Boeing announced the largest supply contract in their 35-year history. Details were not provided, but Alcoa said the multi-year deal is valued at more than $1 billion and makes it the wing-

skin supplier to Boeing for its metallic structure airplanes.Indeed, the positive sentiment is also

buoying a key Alcoa rival, Precision Castparts (PCP), which likewise has been on an acquisition binge to build market share (AW&ST May 12, 2014, p. 20). Despite their buying sprees, RBC and others see room for both.PCP has long competed with Alcoa

in forgings, castings and fasteners, and wed say that PCPs market share in these areas has improved over time versus Alcoa, RBC Capital Markets said in January. Although RTI-sourced titanium could help Alcoas costs in certain products, Alcoa still lacks internal nickel supply and inter-nal titanium sponge supply.To be sure, PCP is sufering a bit of a

dip in its share price due to destocking of excess inventory by major customer Rolls, as well as the hit it is taking in its oil and gas units due to a roughly 50% collapse in oil prices. Analysts think that with the market share roll-up, PCP remains a good long-term bet.That is, in part, because of the rise of

dominant midtiers across A&D. Spurred by airliner backlogs and the Pentagons moratorium on prime contractors combining, mid-industry providers have been all but formally encouraged to bulk up by merging or acquiring others. It further helps that borrowing costs are at historic lows, while many companies have amassed cash piles and/or high stock prices, another proxy tool in merg-ers and acquisitions.Recent examples include the SAIC-

Scitor tie-up in services, Orbital-ATK in space, Harris and Exelis in electron-ics and even Textron and Beechcraft in business jets. The Harris acquisition of Exelis, for instance, catapults it behind just L-3 Communications in revenue generation (see graph).While analysts fret that the rise of

major midtiers could threaten primes and OEMs power to hold down prices from their providers, and thus their nancial performance, such days still seem far away. Boeing remains efusive over the ability of its Partnering for Success project to squeeze the sup-ply chain, and midtier consolidation appears an ever-more popular means to squeeze reliability out of the supply base in the near term. c


By Michael Bruno

Senior Business Editor

Michael Bruno blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]

Primes Tier 2

46

31 31

24 2423

12

87

5 5 5 5 54 3 3

Major Middles Emerge: 2014 Revenues $billions

* Pre-Scitor aquisition

(2) Excludes commercial aerospace

(3) LTM as of last public fling Source: Public security flings, and Harris

LMT = Lockheed Martin

BA = Boeing

GD = General Dynamics

BAE = BAE Systems

NOC = Northrop Grumman

RTN = Raytheon

LLL = L-3 Communications

Harris PF = Harris + Exelis

HII = Huntington Ingalls Industries

LDOS = Leidos

BAH = Booz Allen Hamilton

COL = Rockwell Collins

ATK/ORB = Orbital ATK

Harris = standalone Harris

SAIC = Science Applications International Corp

CACI = CACI International

Exelis = standalone Exelis

Company Ticker Translations:

Inside Business Aviation By William Garvey

COMMENTARY

Business & Commercial

Aviation Editor-in-Chief William Garvey blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

A former U.S. Air Force pilot and eager aviation entrepreneurthough it came to naught, his ATG Javelin ghter-trainer had drawn a lot of interest internationally a few years earlierhe became intrigued by the rapidly evolving solar and battery power technologies and their possible aviation applications.The most populous civil aircraft ever,

the Cessna 172 was the workhorse of the training segment. If electric propul-sion could be adapted to that design, training providers might be able to slash operating costs even while rejuve-nating their piston-powered eets.And so Byes team set to work install-

ing an electric motor on a 1978-vin-tage Skyhawk, along with a six-blade composite prop and battery cells. Later versions also were to be tted with so-lar panels on the upper wing surfaces, power vortex generators on the tips and a regeneration system by which the prop energized the battery as the aircraft slowed and descended.So how did that work out?It helped us conclude that for a solar

electric aircraft to be successful, it needs to take full advantage of the latest in structures, aerodynamics, and solar and motor technologies, Bye says. The idea of working with a legacy airplane is appealing theory, but it creates too many headaches in terms of weight and design ef ciency, among other things. Purpose-built is the way to go.That realization is what turned Byes

attention to Calin Gologans activities.

Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time. It was 2010, the pilot training business was suf ering badly in the reces-sion, fuel costs were high, and training aircraft costs were sky

high. George Bye thought he might have an ideal solution.

Jump Start Sun-splashed wings to lift the training industry

The founder and president of PC-Aero in Germany, Gologan had developed the sleek ultralight Elektra One single-seat compos-ite aircraft designed around a 13.5-kw electric engine (see top photo ). The combination seemed to address all the aws exposed by the electric Skyhawk.In de facto acknowledgment that

Gologan had the better approach, Bye reached licensing and engineering agreements with him to quick-start a new program. Subsequently, Aero Electric Aircraft Corp., a new subsid-iary of Bye Aerospace, tted Elektra One with new landing gear, prop and instrumentation so it could serve as its technology demonstrator. The modi ed aircraft ies out of Denvers Centennial Airport, Byes home base.The goal is to use data from those

ight trials to ne-tune the design and construction of a two-seat aircraft that will serve as prototype for the Sun Flyer, Byes long-sought electric trainer. That aircraftfeaturing four Panasonic lithium-ion battery packs and solar panels on the wings, horizontal tail and behind the canopyis expected to be delivered by year-end.If things come together as Bye hopes,

the Sun Flyer just might brighten the outlook of ight school operators while giving a lift to their bottom lines.It takes only $1 of electricity to y it

for an hour! says Bye. That energy cost calculation should help revitalize general

aviation. Its logistically independent in that you dont need to go buy avgas ever again. The solar panels energize the bat-teries whenever the Sun is shining, in the air or on the ground. How cool is that?For those operators needing a faster

charge, particularly ight schools, Bye says the system will be designed so depleted batteries can be switched for fresh ones in minutes. Moreover, the aircraft will be virtually silent and produce zero emissions, making it neighborhood-friendly.The plan is to certify the Sun Flyer for

day-and-night VFR operation; Bye hopes approval will come within two years of the prototypes rst ight. Regeneration elements could follow. Initial target price is $200,000. Flight schools desperately need this product, Bye says.And even though no manufacturer has

yet been identi ed, Spartan College of Aeronautics and Technol-

ogy in Tulsa, Oklahoma, recently signed for the

rst 20 Sun Flyers.

ICD VS. ICE

Freezing cold, ice and snow have been foremost on

the minds of many this past winter. But

the engineers at Safe Flight Instrument Corp. have been thinking about those conditions for several years and doing something about them.The White Plains, New York, manu-

facturer has developed a small, infrared-based unit that can alert pilots within milliseconds of entering conditions conducive to ice formation (see photo above). Two aircraft manufacturers are ight-testing the Icing Conditions Detec-tor (ICD) ; those tests are expected to conclude soon and production to begin.We have a contract to deliver,

starting this year, says Safe Flight Executive Vice President Matt Greene. Initially, the ICD will serve as a pilot advisory system, but it could be in-tegrated into activating anti-icing or deicing systems on complex aircraft.The system, which comprises a

single, lightweight, line-replaceable unit, has been in development for three years. Initial certi cation is expected by year-end. c


AEAC

SAFE FLIGHT CO

NCEPT

For the last 30 years weve been delighting our customers

and we know the Dreamliner will set us apart even further, bringing new

innovations and a cutting edge product for them to enjoy.

Craig Kreeger

CEO

Virgin Atlantic

THE DREAMLINER EFFECT.

VIRGIN ATLANTIC SUCCESS.

www.newairplane.com/787/dreamliner-effect

COMMENTARY

The world of air transport has experienced two major dis-putes that have led to erce discussions bordering on open hostility, serious threats and tensions that have not been easy

to overcome. First the European Commission (EC) tried to

impose its view of how aviation should tackle the increase of

CO2 emissions on the rest of the industry and was stopped

only at the last minute when it became clear a trade war would

be unavoidable . Then European and U.S. airlines launched a

massive anti-Gulf carrier campaign. They claim that Emirates,

Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways are all heavily government-

subsidized and should therefore lose open-market access to

the U.S. and Europe.

Beyond BilateralsETS, fair competition disputes show that air

transport lacks an ef ective settlement process

These most signi cant aeropolitical disruptions of the past few years show both have a common cause. There is no dependable dispute settlement mechanism in place for governments and the industry . The one overarch-ing takeaway from what the industry has been witnessing for years is that there needs to be a point of contact with global responsibility to deal with such issues . Both the emissions trading system (ETS) and the subsidy case provided good illustrations of the International Civil Aviation Organiza-tions (ICAO) shortcomings . The organization needs to be em-

Airline Intel By Jens Flottau Managing Editor for Civil Aviation Jens Flottau blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/thingswithwings

Jens. [email protected]


JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET

powered to take on a role similar to what the World Trade Organization (WTO) does in other industries in-cluding aircraft manufacturingbut geared toward the speci c needs of air transport .The U.S. subsidy claims also show

the inadequacy of the current bilat-eral system that governs capacity between major markets. Even the U.S. open-skies policy is still based on bilateral agreements that contain language such as this: Each party shall allow a fair and equal oppor-tunity for the designated airlines of both parties to compete in providing

the international air transportation governed by this agreement. The quote is from the open-skies

agreement between the U.S. and Qatar. But what does fair and equal opportunity actually mean: equal market access, no state support, no Chapter 11, identical taxation or something else? Who knows for sure?The point is that as long as the

process is governed by bilaterals, each party will come up with its own interpretation of the contract . There is no independent authority to issue a binding ruling . Bilateral settle-ments are also inadequate because whatever is agreed upon will not necessarily apply to non-signatories. Many air service agreements dont

even include clauses on fair competi-tion; that is true for the France-Unit-ed Arab Emirates and Germany-UAE deals. And where those clauses are in place, they are often ef ectively dormant for political or strategic reasons, such as in the U.K.-UAE and U.K.-Qatar agreements (Qatar Airways owns part of U.K.-based International Airlines Group) .That partisan action goes nowhere

is also the lesson learned from the ETS debacle; the EC did not even try to rely on bilateral clauses, but essentially argued that whatever it decided for intra-European ying also would apply extraterritorially .The one positive aspect of the ETS

dispute is that now an international process for developing a multilateral solution is in place. ICAO is now trying to de ne a global ETS that takes into account what the European Union had in mind, but it also deals with concerns voiced in other regions that see emissions trading as a threat to their growth plans. But as much as European regulators had to learn the hard way that they cannot decide such an important issue for everyone else , any one trying to force aeropolitical changes within bilateral relationships likely will have the same experience. ICAO is not the perfect organiza-

tion to handle these issues, because its pace is incredibly slow. But as the only intergovernmental agency dealing with air transport speci cally, there is prob-ably no other place to go. c

By Pierre Sparaco

Former Paris Bureau Chief Pierre Sparaco has covered aviation and aerospace since the 1960s.

This year, Dassault Aviation is scheduled to deliver one Falcon business jetor moreper week to customers around the world. In contrast, a maximum of 11 Rafale ghters will be pro-

duced, including three for Egypt. Statistics like these conrm that

the French group is no longer a major military player. However,

the situation could change rapidly if export contracts currently

being discussed become rm. India is planning to order 126 Ra-

fales, including 26 to be produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd.

Potential short-term customers include Qatar.

The 11 Rafales being built this year represent the bare minimum needed to keep the nal assembly line alive. The customers goal is to gradually replace seven aircraft types with one all-en-compassing aircraft to harmonize the inventory and cut operational costs. By opting for this route, the French government has reached a position where it wants Dassault to compete on the export market against the U.S., Russia and other nationsbut at the same time it has hindered the Rafales export potential.This is why the manufacturer

encountered difculties in concluding

its rst orders abroad. The Rafale, to some extent, is too sophisticated and expensive.But that is not the only problem

Dassault faces. Government budget constraints have taken a severe toll on the military procurement plan, jeopar-dizing the nations ambitious defense strategy. The air force now operates fewer aircraft than ever while multiple overseas operationsin distant coun-tries such as Maliare mounting.In other words, President Francois

Hollandes political ambitions have per-haps become so extensive and expen-sive that they are creating a complex

problem within the defense industry. Dassault, which was a top player in the 1970s with its Mirage air-superiority ghter and attack aircraft, is now re-stricted to a one-aircraft-type candi-date. Moreover, no national program is being planned post-Rafale. The Dassault Neuronan experi-

mental stealth unmanned combat air vehicleis no more than a European technology demonstrator. It could be followed by an Anglo-French unmanned aerial vehicle involving a relatively modest workload for produc-tion facilities that now devote most of their military business to the Rafale. Ultimately, Dassault could be relegated to the role of civil aircraft maker. No such plan is being contemplated

at this stage, but company executives may have no other option. Many years ago, long before the low-cost concept was in play, preliminary studies con-sidered the merits of a cheap ghter based on the Super Etendarda

carrier jet. But the idea produced little interest, mostly because Dassault did not fully grasp the potential of such a market. Dassault, a highly protable compa-

ny, has another optionusing company funds to develop an all-new aircraft that could open new market opportuni-ties. Inspiration could come from the U.S. Textron group: It recently created jointly with AirLand Enterprises the Scorpion light attack and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) jet aircraft. The Scorpion is expected to cost $3,000 or so per ight hour to operate, in contrast with as much as $24,000 for in-production ghters. However, although a possible submis-sion to the air force is being considered, no request for proposals has been mentioned at this point.In the next few years, Dassault will

have to either mold itself into a purely civil player or adopt a new strategy to stay in the military game. c

Textron and AirLand Enterprises jointly developed the low-cost Scorpion, which will cost no more than $3,000 per ight hour to operate, according to the manufacturers. It will be displayed at the Paris air show in June.

Dassaults DilemmaFrench aircraft manufacturer faces crucial

turning point in its future direction

COMMENTARY

Reality Check


TEXTRON

COMMENTARY

While aviation diesels have low specic fuel consumption (sfc), the problem with them has been their power and weight. They have not been powerful enough for use in larger, higher-performance general aviation (GA) aircraft. And power-to-weight ratio has been too low for them to be usable in light helicopters.This is changing, with ground tests

now underway of a new aviation diesel replacing the turboshaft engine in an Airbus Helicopters EC120 (see photo). Flight tests of the HIPE AE440 high-compression engine (HCE) are to begin by mid-year under Europes Clean Sky research program. The turbocharged V8 has been developed by aviation-diesel producer Austro En-gine and race-car engine maker TEOS Powertrain Engineering.

Aviation gasoline has been the fuel of choice for lighter air-craft for decades, but with leaded avgas becoming hard to nd in some regions and environmentally unacceptable in

others, diesel-cycle engines burning jet fuel are gaining ground.

Fueling ChangeRace-car technology brings high

power-to-weight diesel to aviation

Clean Sky is a 1.6 billion ($1.69 billion) public-private partnership under which European Union research funding is matched by industry and other participants. Led by Airbus He-licopters, the HCE program is one of the major technology demonstrations under the Green Rotorcraft project within Clean Sky, which began in 2007 and runs to 2017.Based in Austria, Austro already

is planning production of the 330-kw (440 hp) AE440 for the xed-wing market, to meet demand for a jet-fuel engine with higher power and lower fuel consumption than ofered by its in-production 125-kw AE300 diesel. The light helicopter market may take longer to penetrate, but a competitive diesel-cycle engine could yet breathe new life into the sector.

Clean Skys goal is to demonstrate reductions of 30% in sfc, 40% in carbon-dioxide and 50% in nitrogen-oxide emissions in the EC120s turbine engine. A 30% reduction in direct operating cost and a doubling of range with the same fuel are also targets. The AE440 has a weight-to-power ratio of 0.8 kg/kw (1.3 lb./hp) and a fuel consumption of 235 g/kwh (0.386 lb./hp-hr.) at takeof power.The keys to the AE440s perfor-

mance are its aluminum construc-tion and fuel injection, both of which come from the automotive industry. Austros four-cylinder AE300 is based on a Mercedes diesel and is a cast steel engine. The AE440 is an all-new engine made of lightweight, machined aluminum. In production, this will be changed to less costly but still lighter cast aluminum, as used in race cars.Common-rail direct fuel injection

operating at a 1,800 bar (26,000 psi) provides precise injection of less fuel at higher pressure for improved atomi-zation and combustion, and reduced fuel consumption. Two high-pressure fuel rails feed individual injector valves digitally controlled by the engine man-agement system.To enable it to directly replace the

faster-turning Turbomeca Arrius turboshaft in the EC120 testbed, the AE440 has a multiplier gearbox so it can drive the rotors via the existing transmission. For xed-wing applica-tions, the engine will drive the propel-ler via a reduction gearbox.With 9.3 million ($9.9 million) in

funding under Clean Sky, the research program has not been without its chal-lenges. Austro and TEOS have built ve engines and completed 300 hr. of tests so far. Component failures have caused delays, which is not unusual in engine development. This and the recent decision to add 100 hr. of ight testing have stretched the program to 47 from 39 months.But the AE440 is Austros rst

clean-sheet engine, and the company acknowledges that without Clean Sky it would not have taken on develop-ment of a powerplant that could be the breakthrough needed to bring fuel-efcient, low-emission aviation diesels to a wider market. c

Leading Edge


By Graham Warwick

Managing Editor-Technology Graham Warwick blogs at:

AviationWeek.com

[email protected]

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COMMENTARY

By Bill Sweetman

Read Sweetmans posts on our blog Ares, updated daily:

AviationWeek.com/ares

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The latest of a Lowes-contractor-pack box of nails to be hammered into the cofn of the two-way street, as it was once jokingly called, is the Air Forces March 17 release of a request for information (RFI) on the T-X advanced trainer. T-X had started with the premise that the world had enough advanced trainers, one of which would meet the Air Forces needs. But the sustained G-requirement in the RFI (6.5g threshold, 7.5g objective) has eliminated BAE Systems Hawk, and presents problems for the Alenia-Aermacchi M-346.Lockheed Martin is talking publicly

about dumping South Koreas T-50 in favor of its own design, in which case the non-U.S. content in T-X would comprise Saabs partnership with Boeing. This is a second snub to Alenia, which cut back its U.S. operations after the Air Force canceled the C-27J Spartan program.In the same week, MBDA CEO

Antoine Bouvier said the company was close to ending eforts to promote the Brimstone II missile in the U.S., which included ight tests on a General Atom-ics MQ-9 Reaper UAV. MBDA ofered Brimstone as a gap-ller until the Joint Air-to-Ground Missile is ready; and there is undeniable value in a short-ight, highly accurate, low-collateral-damage weapon that can be red from fast jets, helicopters or UAVs.These disappointments are the

latest in a long series. Congressional pork-producers have repeatedly tried to shoot down U.S. acquisition of the

The U.S. defense industry, the Pentagon and Congress should admit that they see the rest of the world as a market and not a supplier, except at the build-to-print and commodity

level, or in a dire emergency.

No ExitPotholes on the two-way procurement street

Embraer A-29 Tucano light attack aircraft, whether for its own or allied forces, in favor of the Textron Beech-craft AT-6. The Army walked away from the international Medium Ex-tended Air Defense System (Meads), and the U.S. is promoting modernized versions of the Raytheon Patriot. In the $43 billion competition for a new refueling tanker, the Air Forces nal requirement meticulously excluded any credit for the Airbus competitors greater size and lift capacity.Exceptions are few. Airbus Heli-

copters has provided the Army with the UH-72 Lakota. The Coast Guard and Customs and Border Patrol have been more willing to buy from Europe. Norways Nammo has produced a lot of AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile motors because the U.S. producer fell on its bottom and could not get up.But in default mode, the two-way

street comprises an eastbound super-highway and a westbound cow path littered with potholes and barbed wire. Aside from U.S. industrial overcapac-ity and congressional xenophobia, are

there good reasons for this?The details of U.S. requirements

sometimes dictate the outcome of a selection or narrow the eldbut the operational case is not always sound. The commercial market had spoken unequivocally about the relative ef-ciencyas transport machinesof the Boeing 767 and Airbus A330-200.As for T-X, its understandable

that the Air Force wants students to experience sustained and rapid-onset Gs before they do it (solo) in a $100 million F-35. The Pentagon will pay, big-time, for this capability, and will pay even more if T-X is expanded into companion trainer and aggressor roles. (Maybe the service needs to think about a lead-in ghter trainer.)Charles Darwin can illuminate the

fate of the C-27 and Meads. Many pro-grams go through difcult times, and the absence of a claque on Capitol Hill can be decisive.In cases like Brimstone, eforts to

sell foreign systems into the U.S. hit an armored-glass wall. The unspoken message from the customer appears to be: My life is complicated enough, and I have trouble getting my top priorities through the procurement maze. Please dont try to sell me anything else.To take another example: MBDAs

unique Meteor is close to operational status, its compatible with Amraam installations and USAF intends to keep air-superiority F-15s well into the 2030s. Meteors proven throttleable, solid-fuel ramjet technology (which the U.S. has never mastered) is a match for the Navys requirement for a longer-range anti-radar missile. However, the chance of any formal U.S. interest is near zero.Neither will the picture change

much, as long as sequesterphobia holds Washington in its icy grip. But for the Europeansand emerging export industriesthis realization is liberating. Theres no need to hire an expensive bigwig to be CEO North America, along with a platoon of retired four-stars to staf the proxy board. And when U.S. representatives turn up in the home country to remind everyone that their duty is to sustain true partnerships by writing checks to U.S. contractors, pat them indulgently on their heads, and get back to work addressing the customers needs. c


WIKIMEDIA

In Orbit

COMMENTARY

By Frank Morring, Jr.

Senior Editor Frank Morring, Jr., blogs at:

AviationWeek.com/onspace

[email protected]

George Whitesides, former NASA chief of staf who helped formulate the Obama administrations expanded push for new commercial applications in orbit and later moved into the eld himself as CEO of Virgin Galactic, sees a happy marriage between Silicon Val-leys cellphone industry and the small but useful spacecraft emerging from en-gineering schools. The ofspring could be the basis for a new layer of informa-tion infrastructure that goes far beyond what we have today, he believes.There are several key trends con-

verging now on the small-space sector, and they have the potential to reshape our industry, he said during the Satel-lite 2015 conference in Washington. First [is] the insatiable demand for data communications and real-time information about our planet. Second [is] the prospect for bringing mass-production techniques and commodity electronics to space assets. And third, [there are] new funding sources, some with vast balance sheets, particularly from the information industry.That probably sounds familiar to

John Paffett, CEO of Surrey Satellite Technology US, the Denver-based subsidiary of the British enterprise that pioneered commercial smallsat development in the late 1970s. Under the leadership of Martin Sweeting, the company spun out of the engi-neering school at the University of Surrey by leveraging on the back of commercial technologies in the automotive and telecommunications fields. Now Surrey hopes to tap into the same trends Whitesides noted, in

Long-held hopes for a new economic sector in low Earth orbit (LEO) are beginning to bear fruit, well before the rst paying space tourists get a glimpse of the black sky above the atmo-

sphere. New technologies and applications are attracting serious

private investment into the spacecraft and launch-services sec-

tors, driving what is beginning to look like a sea change in the

way space is exploited.

Smallsat SynergyBig money now gravitating toward smallsats

a new era and on a new continent.A lot of people said are you here

because the U.S. has such a big budget for space, and the answer is no, says Pafett, a long-time Surrey executive who commutes between Denver and the U.K. Were not here for the govern-ment budget. Were here because we think the environment is conducive.A big part of that environment is

nancial. Whitesides company is bank-rolled by the Virgin Group, which is also backing OneWeb Ltd. along with chip-maker Qualcomm and O3b Networks founder Greg Wyler. SpaceX, which is running architecture studies for a competing LEO smallsat broadband constellation out of Redmond, Washing-ton, has $1 billion committed by Google and Fidelity (AW&ST Jan. 21, p. 24).Beyond the billionaires with a

personal interest in space, including Virgins Richard Branson and Elon Musk of SpaceX, the eld is attracting investors purely out to make a buck. They include such companies and in-dividuals as DFJ, Bessemer, Innovation

Endeavors, Vulcan, Asset Management Ventures, Capricorn, Ray Rothrock and OReilly AlphaTech Ventures.For Whitesides, the attraction of

space at Silicon Valleys Sand Hill Road and other venture capital centers is clear. He cites the example of SkyBox Imaging, which was started by four Stanford University graduate students as a way to deliver Earth-observation data cheaply. Skybox quickly attracted $90 million in investment capital, launched two satellites and cashed in when Google acquired the company for half a billion dollars. That means that in a span of ve

years we saw a group of grad students take a company from an idea on the back of a napkin, through an impres-sive fund-raise from some very savvy investors, two generations of satellite design and then the successful exit of those investors at a great multiple, Whitesides says.That kind of churn is driving Virgin

Glactics LauncherOne, a rocket air-launched from the WhiteKnightTwo carrier aircraft, which was originally developed for the companys Space-ShipTwo suborbital human vehicle for tourists and researchers. Launcher-One is in development to place 500 lb. of payload into equatorial LEO and half that in Sun-synchronous polar orbits at less than $10 million a ight. The company is hot-re test-ing the third upgrade of its Newton hydrocarbon-fueled rocket enginea 60,000-70,000-lb.-thrust version.Others drawn to the smallsat-launch

niche include Firey Space Systems of Austin, Texas, and Steve Jurvetson, a principal in DFJ Venture, who was an early SpaceX backer (AW&ST Aug. 15 and Aug. 25, 2014, pp. 24 and 33, respec-tively). The prospects of building con-stellations like OneWeb, and the need for rapid replenishment with newer technology, are driving a development and marketing frenzy for small-space-craft and launchers (see page 31).Newer technology and higher

production rates can create a cycle that may generate its own Moores Law for space, Whitesides says of Planet Labs, which has launched more than 70 small satellite testbeds from the ISS (see photo) and elsewhere, with development cycles sometimes measured in weeks. c


NASA

A pair of Planet Labs Dove satel-lites leaves the ISS. Rapid turnover in smallsat design is attracting serious investment to the eld.

Washington Outlook

The idea that FAA should transfer its air trafc control duties to a commercialized non-prot has picked up powerful sup-port from a major airline trade association. Now the question

is whether lawmakers can agree on the specics by the end of

September. At a March 24 House Transportation Committee

hearing, American Airlines CEO Doug Parker said the FAA is ill-

suited to operate air trafc control. ATC is a commercial func-

tion that is run through a political organization, and that creates

all sorts of problems, said Parker, speaking on behalf of Airlines

for America, the U.S. airline industrys trade organization. If we

ran our airlines the way ATC is run, we wouldnt make decisions

to invest in our future. Parker emphasized, however, that safety

oversight should remain an FAA function. But time for an FAA

overhaul is running short. Rep. Rick Larsen (Wash.), the top

Democrat on the aviation subcommittee, notes FAAs current op-

erating authority expires in six months, and that there is no plan

on the table yet. Without that happen-ing, I nd it difcult to foresee an on-time FAA reauthorization bill if we are to tackle this topic, Larsen warned. If stakeholders want to push for this pro-posal, they need to put something on the table, or risk heading us down the chaotic path of multiple, short-term FAA bills. One proposed x is on the way: Rep. John Mica (R-Fla.), the com-mittees former chairman, has drafted legislation that would allow current air trafc controllers, airlines and users to operate a new ATC system. He plans to introduce it on April 16. c

BOULDER MOVE

NASA ofcials are opting to grab a boulder for the White Houses proposed Asteroid Redirect Mission. The admin-istrations preferred option adds about $100 million to the cost. The alternative was to capture an entire asteroid of a specic size. Scientists favor the boul-der because it allows them to scrutinize more options rather than chasing a single target. Plus, the boulder capture includes an extended gravity tractor demonstration for planetary defenses.

The asteroid mission grew out of a 2010 directive by President Barack Obama to explore an asteroid by 2025 in preparation for a mission to Mars in the middle of the 2030s. The boulder choice was supposed to have been delivered to Congress last December, but wasnt outlined until March 25. Now the deci-sion moves to Congress, where in the

past lawmakers have said they prefer missions that target the Moon rather than Mars. c

POWER PROJECTION

After 28 years in the Senate and a failed presidential bid, John McCain (R-Ariz.) is now leading the Senate Armed Ser-vices Committee. He has a lengthy list of ways to improve the military, which he laid out in a March 26 speech to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The list includes cyber and space control capabilities, directed-energy weapons, unmanned combat aerial vehicles, and future aircraft carriers. McCain also is wading into the details of the stalled Unmanned Carrier Launched Airborne Surveillance Strike (Uclass) program, which remains on hold while the Pentagon reviews its plans for intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR). The chairman, who backs the review, wants a plat-form that will do more than ISRa lot more. In a March 24 letter to Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, McCain urges the Pentagon to consider what attributes could enable the Uclass program to perform strike, as well as ISR, missions. His wish list includes an unrefueled endurance several times that of manned ghters; a refueled mission endurance measured in days; broadband, all-aspect radar cross section-reduction sufcient to nd and engage defended targets; and the ability to carry internally a exible mix of up to 4,000 lb. of strike payload. c

LENDING A FIST

The Air Force may have a new strategy for selling Congress on retiring the A-10 Thunderbolt (see page 54.). But the close air support aircraft known as the Warthog, and the Chuck Norris of airplanes, has an ever-growing base of defenders. That includes the famous tough guy, who studied martial arts while in the Air Force in South Korea. Last week, Norris wrote an op-ed for the conservative WND, saying the A-10 is not ready for retirement and has a range of upgrades to maintain its relevance. I just celebrated my 75th birthday, but Im nowhere near ready to head to the scrap heap, he writes. Some things just improve with age, and the A-10 has done just that, too. c

Change of ControlAirlines back moving ATC out of FAA

COMMENTARY

Edited by Jen DiMascio

Managing Editor-Defense, Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs

at: AviationWeek.com/ares

[email protected]


If we ran our airlines the way ATC is run, we wouldnt

make decisions to invest in

our future.DOUG PARKER

GETTY IM

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FIL

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A concept proposed by Lockheed Martin Space Systems

to ferry cargo to the International Space Station (ISS)

is drawing interest from commercial space enterprises,

including at least one potential backer who operates high above

the ISS in geostationary orbit.

SES of Luxembourg, the largest sat-ellite fleet operator by revenue, says concepts like the low-Earth-orbiting Ju-piter space tug Lockheed is proposing under NASAs commercial cargo pro-gram could serve a variety of functions aimed at lowering the cost of building, launching and operating satellites 36,000 km (22,369 mi.) over the equator.The concept could also help commer-

cial operators refresh payload technolo-gies that become obsolete only a few years after a satellite is launched.The idea here is that with some-

thing like Jupiter, I could swap out a satellite payload in seven-year cycles in order to update it, says Martin Hal-liwell, CTO at SES. We are well-ad-vanced as to how we can do that with concepts of low-Earth-orbit injection and orbital transfer vehicles.Lockheed Martin has proposed the

Jupiter concept under NASAs second round of commercial resupply services (CRS) contracts to deliver cargo to the ISS starting in 2018. The proposal would combine the companys planetary spacecraft busused on missions like

Mavenwith a robotic arm from Can-adas MacDonald Dettwiler and Associ-ates and a pressurized module built by Thales Alenia Space of France and Italy.Launched on an Atlas V, Jupiter

could loiter in orbit indefinitely after delivering its haul to the station. While awaiting periodic resupply runs of pres-surized and unpressurized cargo mod-ules on subsequent Atlas launches, the spacecraft could conduct in-orbit dem-os with hosted payloads or deploy small spacecraft into low Earth orbit (LEO).James Crocker, Lockheed Martin

vice president and general manager for the space divisions new interna-tional unit, says that since the Jupiter concept was unveiled in early March, he has been inundated with ideas as to how it could serve the private sec-tor and international interests beyond NASAs cargo-resupply requirements.We really see this as a proving

ground for those types of commercial operations, Crocker says, adding that Lockheed Martin is eyeing future op-portunities to host payloads with the Jupiter tug and has developed a plug-

Service IndustryFleet operators eye low-Earth-orbit space tugs

for satellite delivery, refueling, upgrades

SPACE

and-play interface to do that, which could be demonstrated in LEO. He also says the company plans to refuel Jupi-ter on each mission, demonstrating the potential to refuel satellites in orbit.If we can show in LEO that we can

make these transfers reliably and ef-ciently, thats going to give insurers and operators a lot of condence, he says.The Jupiter tug could be used to

move satellites from one orbital slot to another or to retire them into a grave-yard orbitcapabilities that could prolong the service life of spacecraft.The vision behind Jupiter, accord-

ing to Crocker, is to target a range of requirements that will make it viable beyond the space stations planned re-tirement date in 2024. Jupiter is a sys-tem that is more than a one-trick pony, he says. People have gone out and

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