Avon and Somerset Police and Crime

Needs AssessmentOctober 2013

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

What is the PCNA?

• A shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats facing Avon and Somerset

• It aims to:-– Inform our planning for 2014 and beyond– Develop and inform our understanding of what works

• It builds upon a wide range of partnership information and analysis

• It is refreshed on an annual basis

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

What information have we used?

Constabulary ReviewsOperating ModelOperation Check

Predicting Demand ProfileValue for Money Profile

Strategic Policing Requirement

Partnership Assessments:-NIM Assessment 2013Joint Strategic Needs

Assessments (Public Health)Community Safety

Assessments: Safer Somerset, South

Gloucestershire, Safer Bristol, North Somerset, BaNES

Socio-Demographic Info Census data / Topic ReportsChanging population profile

ACORN profiles

Analytical ProfilesThematic profiles e.g.

Disproportionate Victimisation Quality of Life in Bristol

PCC priority profiles

Partnership dataCriminal Justice dataRe-offending profilesCriminogenic need

Crime / ASB statistics

ConsultationOPCC Public Consultation

PACT priorities 2013Police & Crime Survey

Organisational Info.Performance reviews

Risk registersPESTELO analyses

I-Quanta Comparisons

National ResourcesPOLKA / College of PolicingUCL Changing crime trends

Crime Survey for England and Wales

LAPE / Alcohol-related harmI-Quanta Comparisons

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

We scanned the changing environmentEnvironmental

• Demographic change• Population growth• Migration• Increasing diversity

Economic

• Hard pressed families• Rising personal debt• Under-employment• Price inflation

Social

• Prevalent alcohol use • Use of legal highs• Housing reform• Young people (NEET)

Welfare

• Safeguarding• Mental Health demand• Welfare Reform• Alcohol related harm

Political / Organisational

• Austerity• Organisational reform• Commissioning• Trust and confidence

Technology

• Use of social media• Mobile technology• New criminal tactics• New cyber technol.

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Overall risk of crime and ASB is falling but

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

There is substantial unmet need and significant levels of unreported crime

• Ranging from low level incidents to most serious crimes and threats – ASB, serious sexual offences, CSE,

domestic abuse, hate crime, FGM, Human Trafficking, terrorism

• Some groups are at a higher risk– Young people, BME communities,

deprived neighbourhoods

• We can not fully assess risk in these areas, but we can improve intelligence, confidence and pro-activity

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentWe are listening to

what matters to our communities

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

And the services people expect…FROM THE POLICE

• Be there when needed• Do what they say they are going to do• Treat people fairly and with respect• Work visibly in the community• Be accessible• Tackle the issues that impact greatest

on quality of life

…FROM CRIMINAL JUSTICE• Rehabilitation – esp. drugs and alcohol• Still penalties for those that cause the

most harm• Restorative community-based

reparation

VICTIMS OF CRIME• Respond quickly• Explain the process / next steps• Keep victim informed• Treat with consideration and respect

DOMESTIC ABUSE VICTIMS• More female officers• Listen. Believe me, don’t judge• Show you care / give support• Take the issue seriously

BURGLARY VICTIMS• Take action - investigate• Give feedback

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentThe Partnership Environment is changing and

becoming more complex

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Key Partnership risks includeThe Changing Environment:• Increasing safeguarding demands• Pressure on low level acquisitive crime and ASB• Opportunities for organised crime and exploitation• High levels of alcohol-related harm and victimisation • Challenge of meeting diversifying community needs• Specific groups being disproportionate affected -– Young people– People with mental health needs– Disadvantaged / deprived communities

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Key Partnership risks includeEffectively managing demand:• No joined up picture of community issue resolution• Informing and responding to the public/victim voice• Maintaining visibility and accessibility• Increasing confidence to report serious crime• Limitations to knowledge of high risk hidden harm• Disproportionate demand – young people– priority neighbourhoods– BME communities

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Key Partnership risks includeThe changing partnership environment:• Budget reductions– Dis-investment, retracting to core responsibilities,

organisational reform

• Changing commissioning landscape– Complex delivery structures, operational management,

loss of knowledge and expertise

• CJS efficiency / effectiveness – capacity, file quality• Victim need / satisfaction – no holistic understanding• Culture and behaviour: PBR, integrity

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

RecommendationsThe Changing Environment:• Invest in prevention to minimise future demand– Alcohol, diversionary activities, priority neighbourhoods– Advice, information, signposting

• Increase focus on safeguarding from serious harm– Agency roles and responsibilities– Mental heath, young people, cyber enabled crime, OCGs

• Develop collective knowledge and capability in response to diversifying population

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Recommendations

Effectively managing demand:• Improve processes for engaging and empowering

communities to resolve issues of local concern

• Invest in improving understanding of and response to hidden harm– Information sharing, research, analysis, 3rd party reporting

• Renewed focus on what works– Improvements in inbuilt security measures, partnership

working, techniques and practices

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

RecommendationsThe changing partnership environment:• Improve cross agency co-ordination and planning– Planning for change, managing demand at first point of

contact, roles and responsibilities, integrated services

• Partnership working with a greater focus on the most problematic issues, cases and localities– IOM, Troubled Families, priority neighbourhoods

• Improve understanding of victim satisfaction and experience across the CJS