avtovaz call with financial analysts - renault · lada product portfolio avtovaz call with...

20
16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts Nicolas MAURE / Dr. Stefan MAUERER CEO / CFO

Upload: habao

Post on 29-Apr-2019

249 views

Category:

Documents


1 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

16.01.2017

AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts

Nicolas MAURE / Dr. Stefan MAUERER

CEO / CFO

Page 2: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Disclaimer

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 2

Information contained within this document may contain forward looking statements.

Although the Company considers that such information and statements are based on

reasonable assumptions taken on the date of this report, due to their nature, they can

be risky and uncertain and can lead to a difference between the exact figures and

those given or deduced from said information and statements.

PJSC AVTOVAZ does not undertake to provide updates or revisions, should any new

statements and information be available, should any new specific events occur or for

any other reason. PJSC AVTOVAZ makes no representation, declaration or warranty

as regards the accuracy, sufficiency, adequacy, effectiveness and genuineness of any

statements and information contained in this report.

Further information on PJSC AVTOVAZ can be found on AVTOVAZ’s web sites

(www.lada.ru/en and http://info.avtovaz.ru).

Page 3: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ Overview

Moscow International Automobile Salon 2016

Page 4: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ 50-years History

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 4

VAZ 2101 1966/1970

LADA XRAY 2016

Page 5: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ Group: Key information

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 5

20.1%

331

sales points

30

countries

408 467

Cars & KDs produced

2015: 176.5 B-Rub (2.6 B-Euro)

2016: estimated T/O > 2015

51 527 p.

IZHEVSK LADA-Izhevsk

plant TOGLIATTI AVTOVAZ

Head-office &

Togliatti plants

MOSCOW AVTOVAZ

Representative

office

Page 6: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

LADA product portfolio

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 6

LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY LADA Largus LADA 4x4

Granta Sedan Kalina Hatchback Priora Sedan Vesta Sedan XRAY Largus 5- or 7-seats 4x4 3-doors

Granta Liftback

Kalina Wagon

Largus Cross

5- or 7-seats

4x4 Urban 3-doors

Granta Pick Up Kalina Cross Largus Fourgon 4x4 5-doors

Granta Sport Kalina Sport 4x4 Urban 5-doors

Kalina NFR 4x4 Pick Up

LADA Sport

Launched

Nov, 2015

Launched

Feb, 2016

Page 7: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Russian PC Market Achievements 2016 – LADA Market Share

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 7

266.3

149.6

145.3

116.8

94.3

76.1

70.5

55.4

36.9

36.9

LADA

Kia

Hyundai

Renault

Toyota

VW

Nissan

Skoda

Mercedes-Benz

Ford

20.1%

11.3%

10.9%

8.8%

7.1%

5.7%

5.3%

4.2%

2.8%

2.8%

90.4

87.7

87.7

55.2

47.7

44.0

36.3

30.6

29.8

29.6

Hyundai Solaris

LADA Granta

Kia Rio

LADA Vesta

VW Polo

Renault Duster

LADA Largus

Toyota RAV 4

Chevrolet Niva

Renault Logan

+2.2% LADA

Renault

Toyota

Skoda

Ford

Lexus

Kia

VW

Lifan

Hyundai

BMW

UAZ

Mercedes-Benz

Land Rover

Audi

Mazda

Datsun

Nissan

Chevrolet

Mitsubishi

Hyundai Solaris

LADA Granta

Kia Rio

LADA Vesta

VW Polo

Renault Duster

LADA Largus

Toyota RAV 4

Chevrolet Niva

Renault Logan

LADA

Top-10 brands, К units / MS % Top-10 models, К units 2016 MS vs. 2015, %

Page 8: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ: Togliatti and Izhevsk plants overview

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 8

* Harbour standard (3 760 h per annum)

** From 1/2017

*** Including KDs

Togliatti Izhevsk

Capacity* 650 K vehicles per year Capacity* 113 K vehicles per year

3 Vehicle Lines** +

Powertrain & Components Lines

1 Vehicle Line +

Components Lines

312 K cars*** in 2016 96 K cars*** in 2016

Page 9: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Mid-Term Plan (approved by BoD on Dec 6th, 2016)

Page 10: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Russian Passenger Car Market Outlook

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 10

India

Turkey

Ukraine Mexico

Russia South Korea

US (PC) Poland

Czech Republic

France UK Germany

US (PC+LCV)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

Passenger cars per 1 000 people (2015)

Russian PC Market Outlook and LADA Market Share

<5 years 26%

5-10 years 28% >10 years

46%

Age of Russian car fleet (> 40 Mio cars in 2015)

640 355 524 581 541 456 387 269 266 >400 >500

2 760

1 376

1 789

2 497

2 774 2 626

2 358

1 507 1 327

23.2% 25.8%

29.3% 23.3%

19.5% 17.4% 16.4% 17.9% 20.1%

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

optimistic scenario

Page 11: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ Mid-Term Plan storyline

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 11

2016-2019

Rebound through:

• Robust 20% PC MS in Russia

• Strong cost optimization

• Deep supplier localization

• Quality and customer satisfaction

• Export sales ramp-up

Positive COP from 2018

FCF breakeven in 2019

2020-2026

Profitable growth through:

• Complete product/market

portfolio regeneration

• Full utilization of capacities

(3 vehicle lines in Togliatti &

1 in Izhevsk)

• Fully integrated Alliance

standards and systems

COP > 5% from 2021

FCF positive from 2020

1 2

BACK ON TRACK in two phases

Page 12: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Transformation of LADA brand good opinion from customers

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 12

55

62 63

66

61 59

44

50 50 48

45 43

30

33

36 38

35

23

33 35

36 35

27 28 30

27 27

12 12 11

15 17

16

3 4

5 5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Competitor 1

Competitor 2

Competitor 3

Competitor 4

Competitor 5

Competitor 6

Page 13: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

LADA vehicles export sales growth projection (incl. SKD & CKD)

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 13

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

CIS Other countries

export countries

in 2017

K-units p.a

Page 14: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

LADA Product Plan directions

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 14

2 New models

4 Facelifts

5 New models

2 Facelifts

5 New models

5 Facelifts

2017 - 2019 2020 - 2022 2023 - 2026

Page 15: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 15

AVTOVAZ cost optimization key levers

• New working scheme with suppliers

• Production optimization

(including Components)

• Productivity improvement

• Creation of Industrial park

Monozukuri

Page 16: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

2016 – 2019 AVTOVAZ Mid-Term Plan: strong performance boost to secure recovery

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16

THROUGH HEADWINDS BACK ON TRACK

2012 - 2015 2016 – 2019

REVENUE Drop to the level of 2011

impacted by Russian market drop

> 50% growth from 2016 to 2019

supported by Russian market recovery

MARKET SHARE RF Drop down to 16.4% > 20% robust market share

EXPORT Fall by 3 times Substantial growth to >50ku (2019)

COSTS Growth of costs under FX changes,

inflation and drop of volumes

Localization and Monozukuri;

Manuf. performance at Alliance level

SG&A High administrative expenses Optimization of SG&A

LADA BRAND OPINION/

QUALITY

11-17 % of respondents positively

assessing the brand;

Improvement in Quality

Growth in number of respondents

positively assessing the brand;

Quality at global level

OPERATING PROFIT Negative Positive from 2018

FREE CASH FLOW Negative Move to breakeven in 2019

Page 17: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Production volume forecast (cars + KDs), k-units

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 17

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

LADA Alliance and partners

2 shifts capacity (“Harbour” standard, 3 760 h per annum)

3 shifts capacity (4 800 h per annum)

Page 18: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

AVTOVAZ Mid-Term Plan roadmap

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 18

COP before non-recurring items, B-RUB Revenue, B-RUB

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

3

202

6

Free cash-flow, B-RUB

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

50

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

3

202

6

+50%

(40)

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

100

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

3

202

6

5%

x2

Page 19: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

16.01.2017 AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 19

• Full leverage of Russian market recovery with minimum 20%

passenger cars market share through: • full renewal of LADA vehicle line-up

• transformation of LADA brand image

• Export push in CIS and other selected regions of the World

• Strong cost optimization through: • deep localization and Monozukuri with suppliers

• manufacturing performance at Alliance level

• headcount optimization (Industrial Park in Togliatti)

• Full utilization of Togliatti and Izhevsk plants’ capacities for

LADA, Renault and Nissan/Datsun vehicles

• Full integration of Alliance standards and systems

• Strong support from Renault Nissan Alliance and Rostec

COP positive from 2018 and > 5% from 2021

FCF breakeven in 2019 and positive from 2020

Conclusions

Page 20: AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts - Renault · LADA product portfolio AVTOVAZ Call with Financial Analysts 16.01.2017 6 LADA Granta LADA Kalina LADA Priora LADA Vesta LADA XRAY

Q & A