AWBA Water Supply and Demand Study

October 4, 2011AWBA Meeting

Comparison 1997 Base to Base

1997 Base

• 1997 Reservoir Elevations• 15,000 AF Indian Firming• Indian Firming thru 2097 • Pro Rata CAP/On-River• Probability Base Shortage

Determination

Base

• 2012 Reservoir Elevation• 23,724 AF Indian Firming• Indian Firming Thru 2108• Shortage Sharing Proposal• Stepped Shortage

Determination

First Shortage YearBase vs. 1997 Base

Shortage VolumeBase vs. 1997 Base

Number of ShortagesBase vs. 1997 Base

Credits RemainingBase vs. 1997 Base

General Assumptions

• Starting Reservoir Elevation Jan. 2012• Shortage Triggers• CAP Shortage Distribution• No Yuma Desalter• M&I Firming thru 2097• Indian Firming thru 2108• Indian Firming 23,724 AF

Base vs. Scenarios

Base• On-River/CAP shortage

distribution pro rata based on demand

Scenarios• Director’s Shortage

Sharing Recommendation

ScenariosScenario Upper Basin

Depletion ScheduleOn-River Tribal

ScheduleLake Mead Shortage

CriteriaMexico Shares in

ShortageModel Run Completed

A AWBA Upper Basin Assumption Ten Tribes Interim Guidelines

Extended Yes 8/29/2011

B AWBA Upper Basin Assumption Ten Tribes Interim Guidelines

Extended No 8/29/2011

C AWBA Upper Basin Assumption

ADWR 2010-2011 Update

Interim Guidelines Extended Yes 8/30/2011

D AWBA Upper Basin Assumption

ADWR 2010-2011 Update

Interim Guidelines Extended No  

E Upper Basin Schedule Ten Tribes Interim Guidelines

Extended Yes 8/29/2011

F Upper Basin Schedule Ten Tribes Interim Guidelines

Extended No 8/29/2011

G Upper Basin Schedule

ADWR 2010-2011 Update

Interim Guidelines Extended Yes 8/29/2011

H Upper Basin Schedule

ADWR 2010-2011 Update

Interim Guidelines Extended No 8/30/2011

Shortage VolumeBase, Scenario A and Scenario C

First Shortage YearBase, Scenario A and Scenario C

Number of ShortagesBase, Scenario A and Scenario C

Credits RemainingBase, Scenario A and Scenario C

Shortage VolumeMedian Traces

First Shortage YearMedian Traces

Number of ShortagesMedian Trace

Credits RemainingBase, Scenario A and Scenario C

Discussion