AWEA State RPS Market Assessment 2016:

Executive SummaryReleased September 14, 2016

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 2

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 4

Introduction 9

Key Definitions 11

Methodology 12

National RPS Summary Map 14

Characteristics of State RPS Programs 15

Recent RPS Developments 19

State RPS Target Years 20

Comparison of State RPS Targets 21

Nationwide RPS Demand 23

Regional RPS Demand 25

State RPS Demand 27

State by State RPS Demand 29

Appendix: Model Assumptions 58

Wind Capture Rate 58

Wind Capacity Factors 59

Electricity Load Growth 60

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 3

Executive Summary

Across the United States, 29 states and the District of Columbia have mandated Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), requiring utilities serving customers in each state to supply a targeted portion of their electricity from renewable resources by a certain year. The purpose of this report is to determine near-term demand for wind and other renewables from state RPS programs, accounting for compliance to date. The report looks out to the year 2025, when the majority of RPS requirements must be met in full, to determine the amount of incremental renewable energy demand that RPS programs will drive. For states with RPS targets beyond 2025, this edition of the report includes state-specific projections through the final RPS target year.

Wind energy has historically been the renewable technology of choice to meet RPS requirements. State RPSs may be used as starting points for Clean Power Plan compliance, providing major educational value for state compliance strategies. Given the success of RPS programs in driving significant wind energy development, this report takes a detailed look at total RPS requirements to assess the incremental RPS demand that wind is eligible to capture, as well as the RPS demand that wind is expected to capture going forward. RPS demand is broken out regionally and state-by-state, in additional to national figures.

In this report, readers will learn more about:

• Characteristics of RPS programs in each state

• Recent RPS expansions

• Total, wind eligible, and expected wind RPS demand

• Nationwide RPS demand

• Regional RPS demand

• State by state RPS demand

• AWEA’s methodology and assumptions

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 4

Executive Summary

State RPS Targets

• In 2015, Hawaii became the first state to adopt an RPS target of 100% renewable electricity supply, with a target year of 2045.

• Vermont soon followed with the second highest RPS at 75% renewable energy by 2032.

• Three states, California, Oregon, and New York, and the Disctrict of Columbia now have RPS targets of 50%.

• 14 states have nominal targets of 25% or greater.

• Five states reach their terminal RPS year in 2020, with four more states reaching their terminal RPS year in 2021 and six states in 2025. Eight states have RPS targets beyond 2025.

Current RPS Target Percentages

10%10%10%

13%13%

15%15%15%15%15%

18%20%20%20%

25%25%25%25%27%

30%32%

39%50%50%50%50%

75%100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

MaineMichigan

WisconsinNorth Carolina

OhioArizona

MissouriMontana

WashingtonMassachusetts*

PennsylvaniaMaryland

New MexicoNew Jersey

New HampshireDelaware

IllinoisNevada

ConnecticutColorado

MinnesotaRhode Island

CaliforniaDistrict of Columbia

New YorkOregon

VermontHawaii

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 5

Executive Summary

Nationwide RPS Demand

Total RPS Demand• Through 2025, RPS markets

will drive the development of approximately 153,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of renewable energy. This is equivalent to more than 51 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity.

Wind Eligible Demand• Through 2025, RPS demand

where wind is an eligible resource reaches roughly 135,300 GWh. This is equivalent to 45 GW of new wind capacity.

Expected Wind Demand• AWEA estimates that RPS markets

will drive the development of approximately 24.2 GW of wind power capacity from 2016 through 2025.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

GW

h

Nationwide Cumulative RPS Demand, 2016-2025

Total RPS Requirement Wind Eligible Demand Expected Wind Demand

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 6

Executive Summary

Regional RPS Demand

• Through 2025, the Mid-Atlantic region contains the most wind-eligible RPS demand, requiring an estimated 12,775 MW.

• California contains nearly as much wind eligible demand as all seven of the Mid-Atlantic states combined, with 12,656 MW.

• The Mid-Atlantic (28%), California (28%) and New York (13%) contain the most wind eligible demand, representing 69% of all wind-eligible demand in the country.

• The Mid-Atlantic region also contains the most expected wind RPS demand through 2025, driving an estimated 7,225 MW of wind capacity.

• California contains the second highest expected wind demand, with 4,430 MW, and New York comes in third with 3,434 MW of wind.

3,425

12,656

3,579

1,218

4,321

16,750

5,941

3,183

298

3,425

12,656

2,951

1,177

3,660

12,775

5,941

2,491

298

2,589

4,430

1,267765

2,928

7,225

3,434

1,421

1190

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Northwest California Mountain West Plains Midwest Mid-Atlantic New York New England Hawaii

Cap

acit

y (M

W)

Regional Demand 2016-2025Total RPS Demand Wind Eligible Expected Wind

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 7

Executive Summary

State RPS Demand

• California leads the RPS states in expected wind demand, with 4,430 MW of expected wind through 2025. New York contains the second highest demand with 3,434 MW of expected wind.

• The top five states in terms of expected wind demand are California, New York, Ohio, Illinois, and Oregon. These five states contain 64% of all expected wind RPS demand.

• California, New York, and Oregon all increased their RPS targets in the past year, demonstrating the role of state renewable portfolio standards in creating new demand.

• New Jersey, Washington, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Missouri round out the top ten states.

• New Jersey, Washington, and Pennsylvania are each expected to drive over 1,000 MW of wind capacity.

Expected Wind RPS Demand, 2016-2025 (MW)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

MichiganMontana

WisconsinMaine

VermontDelaware

New HampshireMinnesota

HawaiiRhode IslandNew Mexico

ArizonaNevada

District of ColumbiaNorth CarolinaMassachusetts

ConnecticutColoradoMissouri

MarylandPennsylvaniaWashingtonNew Jersey

OregonIllinois

OhioNew YorkCalifornia

Expected Wind Demand, 2016-2025 (MW)

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 8

National RPS Summary Map

HI

ALMS

AR

LA

GA

KYVA

NC

SC

FL

NV

MO

ILIN

WIMI NY

ME

IA

MN

KS

ND

AZ

CA CO

ID

MT

NE

NM

SD

OH

OK

PA

TN

TX

UT

OR

WA

WV

WY

AK

15% by2025

25% by2025

50% by2030

100% by 2045

IOU: 20%Coop: 10%all by 2020

15% by2015

15% by 2020

Large IOU: 50% by 2040Large COU: 25% by 2025

Small Utility: 10% by 2025Smallest Utility: 5% by 2025

IOU: 30%Large Coop: 20%

Small Coop and Muni: 10%all by 2020

5,880 MWby 2015

IOU: 12.5% by 2021Coop and Muni: 10% by 2018

15% by2021

10% by2015

10% by2015

105 MW

25% by2025

Xcel: 31.5% by 2020IOU: 26.5% by 2025Other: 25% by 2025

12.5% by 2026

MD 20% by 2022

18% by 2021

DE 25% by 2026 NJ 20.38% by 2021, 4.1% solar by 2027

CT 27% by 2020

RI 38.5% by 2019

MA 15% by 2020, +1% each year after

50% by 2030

10% by 2017

NH 24.8% by 2025

VT75% by 2032

DC 50% by 2032

California

Northwest

Mountain West Midwest New York

New EnglandMid-AtlanticPlains

Hawaii

Texas

Summary of State Renewable Portfolio Standards

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 9

Find More Info in the Full Report

• Overview of RPS characteristics and design features

• Detailed Methodology

• Map summarizing RPS requirements across the U.S.

• Characteristics of state RPS programs

• Summary of recent RPS developments

• Summary of fulfilled RPS states

• Timeline of RPS target years

• Total and effective RPS requirements by state

• Charts of cumulative and annual nationwide demand

• Regional chart depicting RPS demand in 9 regions across the U.S.

• Breakdown of regional RPS demand

• State rankings of wind eligible demand and expected wind demand

• State by state examination of RPS demand and recent RPS compliance details, including wind’s share of compliance

• Annual demand charts for each state

• Charts depicting each state’s share of regional and national demand

• Assumption tables

American Wind Energy Association | State RPS Market Assessment 2016 | AWEA Member Version 10

The AWEA State RPS Market Assessment 2016 can be accessed at www.awea.org/rps2016.

For additional AWEA market analyses, please visit www.awea.org/marketreports where you can download previous versions of the RPS Assessments, Quarterly Market Reports, and the latest Annual Market Report.

Access the AWEA Market Database Pro at www.awea.org/database for a comprehensive database of all online and under construction wind projects, turbines, and active wind-related manufacturing facilities.

Copyright © 2016

Graphics and text in this report can be used with proper citation of “AWEA RPS Market Assessment 2016.”

Creation of new graphics based on data in the report must receive written approval from AWEA.

For a spreadsheet with underlying data or with any corrections, please contact Celeste Wanner at cwanner@awea.org.