axsen jonn 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_room_107
TRANSCRIPT
1 Socio-technical transitions to low-
carbon consumption: Developing markets for electric mobility
Jonn Axsen Simon Fraser University
July 8, 2015
Our Common Future under Climate Change
Section 2230: Transport
Paris, France
Sustainable Transportation Research Team Lead by Dr. Jonn Axsen
Themes:
• Technology adoption
• Consumer motivation
• Citizen acceptance of energy and policy
• Modeling energy and policy
Canadian PEV Study (CPEVS)
Report now available http://www.rem.sfu.ca/people/faculty/jaxsen/cpevs/
3
53 kWh
24 kWh
16 kWh
Huge variety among PEVs
4 kWh
~117 km electric range
Nissan Leaf
~56 km ~500 km gasoline
~300km electric range
Tesla Roadster
Toyota Prius PHV
Chevy Volt
20 km ~800 km gasoline
Plug-in
Hybrid
(PHEV)
Pure
Electric
(EV)
Comparing Battery Sizes:
To meet 2050 reduction targets, we need
PEVs to be majority of new market share by
2040…
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
“Ambitious” policies
(no ZEV)
+ ZEV mandate
LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels
CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050
“Ambitious”
Policies Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050
ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020
PEV
new
market
share
5 …a socio-technical transition
PEV policy Vehicle
design
Charging type
and speed
Battery
costs
Awareness
and confusion
Latent
demand
Design
interests
Learning and
social
influence
Technology Social
GHG and
grid impacts
6
Today’s Flow
Data Collection (CPEVS)
Barrier: Low awareness
Opportunity: Latent demand
Barrier: Limited supply
Policy implications
Data collection:
The Canadian Plug-in Electric
Vehicle Survey (CPEVS)
Passenger Vehicle Owners
A perspective on the PEV market:
Now and future
8
New vehicle buyers
Potential
“Early Mainstream”
PEV buyers
(NVOS, 2013
n = 1754)
PEV “Pioneers”
(PEVOS, 2014/15
n = 126)
CPEVS: Reflexive, multi-method design
Canadian “Mainstream” Survey (n = 1754), generally
representative of new vehicle buying households
Barrier:
Low PEV awareness
12 Confusion of innovations:
“How is each of the following vehicle fueled?”
Source: Axsen, Bailey and Kamiya (2013), CPEVS 2013 Preliminary Report
(Hybrid)
(Plug-in
Hybrid)
(Pure
electric)
Opportunity:
High latent demand
Latent demand: one-third of new vehicle
buyers want a PEV (mostly PHEVs)
Source: Axsen, Goldberg et al. (2015), Canadian PEV Study (CPEVS)
15 PEVs can appeal to consumers with a
wide variety of motives (tech, enviro, etc.)
9
11
13
15
17
19
9 11 13 15 17 19
Tech-
oriented
Lifestyle
(Score,
1-25)
Enviro-oriented
Lifestyle (Score, 1-25)
CV
buyer
HEV
buyer
Tech-
enviro
Strong-
enviro
Techie
Concerned
Open
Unengaged
Source: Axsen et al. (2015), Energy Economics
Barrier:
Lack of PEV supply
Important barriers to PEV sales
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Lack of PEV availability (dealerships)
Lack of PEV variety (makes/models)
Only those with home charging access
Only buyers that are "familiar"
Potential (Latent) Demand for PEV's
PEV market share (2020)
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
“Constrained” forecast,
without substantial policy
~1% market share
Policy implications:
Need for supply-focused
PEV policies
19
Comparing PEV policies
Demand-
focused
$ incentives e.g. $5000 rebate, or income tax break,
home charger rebate
Other incentives e.g. HOV lane access, free parking
Home chargers e.g. building codes
Public chargers Installation of non-home chargers
Info campaign Disseminating information about PEVs
Supply-
focused
ZEV mandate Automakers must sell a minimum market
share of zero-emissions vehicle
Fuel standard Fuel suppliers must reduce carbon intensity
R&D support Subsidies for automakers to develop PEVs
Demand-focused policies can get
PEVs only so far…
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Strong Demand Policy
Weak Demand Policy
PEV
new
Market
share
(BC)
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
Supply-focused policies may be
essential for PEV “success”
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Strong Demand Policy
Strong Supply and Demand Policy
California ZEV targets
Weak Demand Policy
PEV
new
Market
share
(BC)
Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)
A ZEV mandate may be essential to
achieve 2050 GHG targets
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2050 GHG Target
80% below 2005 GHGs
Current Policies
“Ambitious” Policies
(no ZEV)
+ZEV mandate
LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels
CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050
“Ambitious”
Policies Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050
ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020
Passenger
vehicle
GHGs
(well-to-
wheel)
Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation
23 Triggering a PEV transition: Policy priorities
1. Strong supply-focused policy (ZEV mandate)
2. Strong demand-focused policies
– Financial incentives
– Other incentives (HOV, parking)
– Home charging (codes)
– Other charging (workplace, public)
Extra
25
Home
Charging
Work
Charging
Charging is only one issue…
Level 1: Regular outlet (1-2 kW)
Level 2: Your dryer outlet (3-6 kW)
Level 3: Fast charging (20-200 kW)
Public
Source: Duvall (2009), Plug-in 2009
66% of Canadian
Car buyers
already have
Level 1 access