back to the future: state of the voluntary carbon markets 2011 premium sponsor sponsors
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Back to the Future:Back to the Future:State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011
PREMIUM SPONSORPREMIUM SPONSOR SPONSORSSPONSORS
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Simplified diagram of the paths voluntary carbon credits Simplified diagram of the paths voluntary carbon credits can take from reduction to final buyerscan take from reduction to final buyers
PROJECT DEVELOPERPROJECT DEVELOPER BROKERBROKER
RESELLERRESELLER
PRE-COMPLIANCEPRE-COMPLIANCE(surrender or trade)(surrender or trade)
PURELY VOLUNTARYPURELY VOLUNTARY(retirement)(retirement)
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• Report informed by market-wide, comprehensive survey of the Over the Counter (OTC) voluntary carbon markets. “OTC” market is comprised of decentralized, B2B or bi-lateral trades not occurring on exchanges or through formal trading platforms or programs
• Database of 1,400 companies in marketplace. 284 responded, another 261 suppliers did not transact credits in 2010, were no longer selling voluntary carbon credits or were no longer in business
• Total % coverage: ~50% of companies, more than 50% of volume• Use transaction volume to weight response significance. We
consider a “transactions” to be the point at which you sign a contract – not when $ exchanged or credits delivered, which can happen in future. Means we also track forward sales and options. Best indicator of level of interest and investment in marketplace.
This year, a record 284 respondents from 38 countries This year, a record 284 respondents from 38 countries responded to our surveyresponded to our survey
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# of suppliers from South doubled (2009: 29; 2010: 58). # of suppliers from South doubled (2009: 29; 2010: 58). Almost ½ from Latin America: 33, up from 13 in 2009Almost ½ from Latin America: 33, up from 13 in 2009
Survey Participant Location COUNTRY 2009 2010BRAZIL 5 10
MEXICO 2 7
GUATEMALA 3
CHILE 3
BOLIVIA 1 2
PANAMA 2
PERU 2 2
URUGUAY 1 2
ARGENTINA 1
COLOMBIA 1
COSTA RICA 0 1
5Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Historic Transacted and Retired VolumesMtCO2e
OTC market OTC market andand Latin America saw record transaction Latin America saw record transaction volumes, even excluding CCXvolumes, even excluding CCX
LATIN LATIN AMERICA AMERICA = 28%= 28%
$$
6Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Transaction Volume by Location and Project Type
Forest carbon changing the landscape for project location, Forest carbon changing the landscape for project location, once a toss up between US- and Asia-based projects once a toss up between US- and Asia-based projects
LA supplanted top LA supplanted top country locations:country locations:
US: 34%PERU: 17%PERU: 17%BRAZIL: 8%BRAZIL: 8%INDIA: 8%
TURKEY: 8%CHINA: 4%
2009: 16% or 7 MtCO2e
MtCO2e
7Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Land-based projects sequester 46% of all OTC credits; 90% in Land-based projects sequester 46% of all OTC credits; 90% in Latin America; Latin America; REDD stacked the odds in favor of VCSREDD stacked the odds in favor of VCS
Market Share by Project Type, Latin America OTC Market Share by Standard, Latin America OTC
8Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
As seen in previous years in US and AU, Latin American As seen in previous years in US and AU, Latin American buyers in 2010 sought credits from their own backyardbuyers in 2010 sought credits from their own backyardLatin America Buyers Market Share (tracked 12 MtCO2e)
MOTIVATION (tracked 9 MtCO2e)
%
Business For-Profit: Purely Voluntary
50%
Business For-Profit: Pre-Compliance
31%
Unknown 5%
Business For-Profit: Resale to voluntary buyers
1%
9Source: “State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2011”, Ecosystem Marketplace and Bloomberg New Energy Finance
SECTOR VOLUNTARY PRE-COMPLIANCE TOTAL
FORESTRY 25.9 MtCO2e 15.4 MtCO2e 41.3 MtCO2e
RENEWABLES 4.6 0 4.6
METHANE 0.09 0 0.09
EFFICIENCY / FUEL SWITCH
6.7 0.4 7.1
INDUSTRIAL GAS 0.4 0 0.4
TOTAL THROUGH 2015TOTAL THROUGH 2015 53 MtCO2e
Trends in Supply for Latin American Offsets Through 2015
Where will future supply come from? Reported supply Where will future supply come from? Reported supply through 2015 equates to 13 through 2015 equates to 13 MtCO2eMtCO2e/year through 2015/year through 2015
INTERNATIONAL DOMESTIC
THE USUAL SUSPECTS:EU- and US-based companies absorbed ½ this
volume (~7 MtCO2e) in 2010
EXCHANGES:•Santiago•Colombia
•Caribbean Basin
CALIFORNIA:Up to 71 MtCO2e international REDD could
pass through that program through 2020, but no details yet
LARGE DOMESTIC FIRMS LOOKING @ FOOTPRINTS; SUPPLY CHAIN EXPORTERS
Vale Energy, Banco do Brasil, Pemex, Banco Bradesco, Isagen, Endessa
“OTHER” INTERNATIONAL PROJECT FINANCE:
Bilateral/multilateral, fund-based
POTENTIAL DOMESTIC MARKETS:WCI, Chile, Brazil (?) – some sub-national
movement
Trends in Demand for Latin American Offsets
Thanks to suppliers and sponsors! For more Information:Thanks to suppliers and sponsors! For more Information:
PREMIUM SPONSORPREMIUM SPONSOR SPONSORSSPONSORS
Molly Peters-Stanley, AssociateMolly Peters-Stanley, AssociateEcosystem MarketplaceEcosystem [email protected](202) 298-3005