back to the moon, again? · satellite maker sets itself up as a one-stop shop for the smallsat...

For lunar exploration advocates, the moon

is closer now than at any time

since Obama took office

NOVEMBER 21, 2016BUSINESS | POLITICS | PERSPECTIVE

I N S I D E

n What Trump means for spacen ESA ministerial previewn Lending smallsat firms a hand

VISIT SPACENEWS.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPACE NEWS

Back to the moon, again?

An Ariane 5 ES flawlessly injected four Galileo spacecraft into a Medium

Earth Orbit from the Spaceport in French Guiana on November 17. This

was the 75th success in a row for the Ariane 5, surpassing the Ariane 4’s

streak of 74 consecutive missions. With this record-breaking feat,

Arianespace brought Europe one step closer to navigational autonomy.

HISTORIC

SPACENEWS.COM | 1

ABOVE: NASA astronaut Peggy Whitson, 56, became the oldest woman in space when she launched Nov. 17 toward the International Space Station on a Russian Soyuz capsule with ESA astronaut Thomas Pesquet and Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg Novitskiy. Credit: NASA/Bill Ingalls

ON THE COVER: THE SUPERMOON IS SEEN FROM WASHINGTON AS IT SETS BEHIND BUILDINGS IN ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA, ON NOV. 14. CREDIT: NASA/JOEL KOWSKY

C O N T E N T S 1 1 . 2 1 . 1 6

DEPARTMENTS

FEATURES

06ESA’s goal: aim high, hope for best ESA will ask for 11 billion

euros when its members

meet in December.

12Back to the moon, againFor lunar exploration

advocates, the moon appears

closer than it has since

Obama took office.

08SSL lends a hand to smallsat startups Satellite maker sets itself up

as a one-stop shop for the

smallsat crowd.

164 satellite-industry hopes for TrumpSatellite industry officials

weigh in on what it wants

from President-elect Trump.

11What NewSpace wants from TrumpRegulatory certainty and the

freedom to fail, for starters.

@SpaceNews_Inc youtube.com/user/SpaceNewsInc linkedin.com/company/spacenewsFb.com/SpaceNewslncFOLLOW US

3 QUICK TAKES

19 OPEN LETTER

Courtney Stadd A transition vet offers

tips to Trump’s NASA

transition team

22 MY TAKE Jim Muncy

Space transitions

aren’t just about NASA

anymore

24 FIRST PERSON Lori Garver

Why this Democrat is

giving Trump a chance

on space (if not much

else)

25 COMMENTARY Michael Listner

How a Trump space

policy could transform

outer space security

28 COMMENTARY Dean Cheng

China’s move to cis-

lunar space

30 BOTTOM LINE Enough satellites to

darken the skies

32 FOUST FORWARD Key NASA issues for the

Trump administration

Go to spacenewsmediakit.comfor more information

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QUICK TAKES

The U.S. Defense Department is more

open to international partnerships in sat-

ellite communications than it used to be,

according to a Canadian officer. Lt. Col. Abde

Bellahnid, who negotiated Canada’s entry into

the U.S. Wideband Global Satcom system, said

at the Global Milsatcom conference Nov. 10

that the U.S. has been more open to work-

ing with allies as it develops an analysis of al-

ternatives for future satellite communications

requirements. Bellahnid said he hopes that co-

operation extends to another satellite commu-

nications effort for polar regions that Canada is

currently studying in cooperation with the U.S.,

Denmark and Norway.

NATO is so far behind in planning for a

next-generation military satellite commu-

nications system that it may have to extend

an existing contract. Gregory Edwards, director

of infrastructure services at the NATO Com-

munications and Information Agency, said at

the Global Milsatcom conference Nov. 10 that

extending the current contract, which expires

in 2019, isn’t desirable because of growing

bandwidth requirements, particularly in spec-

trum bands like EHF and Ka-band not included

in that contract. Edwards said he hopes NATO

has its satellite communications requirements

in place by early 2017 to then solicit contracts

from member nations.

DISA URGES ALLIES TO USE IRIDIUMThe Defense Department is encouraging allies to join a program that provides unlimited use of

Iridium satellites. The Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) is in the middle of a five-year,

$400 million contract with Iridium that provides the Pentagon with unlimited capacity on Iridium,

with all traffic routed through a special gateway in Hawaii. While several allied nations already

take advantage of the contract, a DISA official said Nov. 9 at the Global Milsatcom conference in

London that other allies are welcome to join, paying a fixed fee for unlimited access.

Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand “have unlimited access to the Iridium constellation through our gateway. Like Department of Defense agencies, they pay us a fixed rate. In return, they canadd as many devices as they want to the network, provisioned by us.”

—CLARE GRASON, DoD’s Enhanced Mobile Satellite Services program manager

OHB illustration of Heinrich Hertz

11The number of applications for global satellite internet constella-tions the FCC received by the Nov. 15 deadline it set for companies to declare their intentions to seek li-censing for systems that, in some cases, would number several thou-sand satellites.

32The number of days Chinese astro-nauts Jing Haipeng and Chen Dong spent aboard Tiangong-2 before re-turning to Earth Nov. 18. The mis-sion was the longest crewed flight to date by China.

$7.6MThe value of the non-cash impair-ment charge UrtheCast is taking on the two Earth-observation cameras mounted on the International Space Station’s Russian segment. Urthe-Cast said the write-down was driven by strained relations with Rus-sia, which wants to renegotiate its agreement with UrtheCast.

SIGNIFICANT DIGITS

$330MThe size of the contract OHB ex-pects to receive from the German government for full development of the experimental communications satellite dubbed Heinrich Hertz.

“We reluctantly leased a lot of satellite communications. We reluctantly allowed people to image for commercial purposes …We have successfully now changed that thinking around.”

— DOUG LOVERRO, THE U.S. DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR SPACE

POLICY, SPEAKING NOV. 15 AT THE MARYLAND SPACE BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE ABOUT THE

PENTAGON’S EVOLVING EMBRACE OF THE COMMERCIAL SPACE SECTOR.


QUICK TAKES

ARIANE 5 CONDUCTS ITS FIRST GALILEO LAUNCH

AFTER TRUMP, NASA STUMPS FOR EARTH SCIENCENASA used a briefing about an

upcoming mission to make the

case for the agency’s overall

Earth science efforts.

“NASA’s work on Earth sci-

ence is making a difference in

people’s lives all around the

world every day,” Thomas Zur-

buchen, associate adminis-

trator for science, said at a

beginning of a briefing about

the CYGNSS hurricane-track-

ing mission.

Those comments come

after the election of Donald

Trump, whose space policy

has proposed cutting fund-

ing for Earth science programs

in favor of space exploration

efforts.

Republicans in Congress

in recent years have also pro-

posed cutting Earth science

funding, although those ef-

forts have largely been

unsuccessful.

THOMAS ZURBUCHEN at NASA

“I’m not really very interested in this solar system. I always thought it was kind of boring.”

— PETE WORDEN, CHAIRMAN OF THE BREAKTHROUGH PRIZE FOUNDATION, DISCUSSING

THE FOUNDATION’S BREAKTHROUGH STARSHOT PROJECT TO DEVELOP TECHNOLOGIES

FOR AN INTERSTELLAR PROBE DURING A NOV. 16 TALK AT THE SPACECOM CONFERENCE

IN HOUSTON. THE FOUNDATION IS ALSO FUNDING EFFORTS TO DETECT SIGNALS FROM

EXTRATERRESTRIAL CIVILIZATIONS.

Europe’s Ariane 5 rocket,

debuting a new satellite-dis-

penser system, on Nov. 17

successfully placed four Euro-

pean Galileo navigation satel-

lites into medium-Earth orbit.

It was the 75th consec-

utive success for Ariane 5,

breaking the tie with its pre-

decessor, the Ariane 4.

Launching from Europe’s

Guiana Space Center, the Ar-

iane 5 ES version, with a stor-

able-propellant upper stage

instead of the usual cryogenic

stage, separated the four

716-kilogram Galileo space-

craft two at a time about four

hours after liftoff.

The launch was the first

time Ariane 5 had been used

for Galileo. All previous

launches were by European-

ized Russian Soyuz rockets,

which carry two Galileo satel-

lites at a time.

Ariane 5 prime contractor

Airbus Defence and Space

provided the 435-kilogram

structure that releases two

satellites at a time in an in-

terval of about 20 minutes.

Because this was the first use

of the system, the separation in

orbit provided the most tense

moments of the four-hour

mission.

Germany’s OHB and pay-

load provider SSTL of England

are under contract to build 22

Galileo satellites, 14 of which

are now in orbit. The eight

remaining satellites will be

launched by Ariane 5 rockets in

2017 and 2018.

The Galileo system now has

18 satellites in orbit ( including

four in-orbit-validation satel-

lites). The European Commis-

sion, Galileo’s owner, expects

initial service to begin by the

end of the year.

The commission and the

22-nation European Space

Agency, which acts as program

technical manager for the

commission, ultimately want

30 Galileo satellites in orbit —

24 operational spacecraft plus

in-orbit spares.

To get to that total, ESA is

managing a competition to

build at least eight, and up to

14, additional Galileo satellites.

An announcement of one or

more winning bidders is ex-

pected in the coming weeks.

An Ariane 5 rocket deploys its Galileo payload in this ESA artist’s concept

NAS

A

CR

SPACENEWS.COM | 5

QUICK TAKES

TANK TESTS HAVE SPACEX BURSTING WITH JOYSpaceX says a giant propellant tank it developed as part of its Mars mission architecture

passed a key early test. The carbon-fiber tank completed a set of pressure tests performed on a

barge the week of Nov. 7, according to a brief statement from the company. SpaceX CEO Elon

Musk said in October that the test would take the tank up to two-thirds of its burst pressure. The

tank is a key element of the interplanetary spaceship, capable of landing on Mars and carrying up

to 100 people, that Musk unveiled in a talk in September.

Another SpaceX tank test at its McGregor, Texas, test site startled local residents and prompted

a response from the fire department. The blast attracted the attention of local residents Nov. 16

and the city’s fire department responded, but there were no injuries or damage reported. SpaceX

said that residents heard “the result of a pressurization test” at its test site that “was part of the on-

going testing being conducted by our Accident Investigation Team” into the Sept. 1 Falcon 9 pad

explosion.

Expedition 50 crew boards Soyuz

WHITSON SETS RECORDA Soyuz spacecraft with three

new space station crew mem-

bers launched Nov. 17. The

Soyuz rocket lifted off from the

Baikonur Cosmodrome in Ka-

zakhstan and placed the Soyuz

MS-03 spacecraft into orbit.

The spacecraft was scheduled

to dock with the ISS on Nov.

19. The Soyuz is carrying ESA

astronaut Thomas Pesquet,

Roscosmos cosmonaut Oleg

Novitskiy, and NASA astro-

naut Peggy Whitson who, at

56, is the oldest woman to fly

to space.NAS

A/SP

ACEX

/BLA

CKSK

Y

U.S. House GOP leaders plan

introduce a stopgap spend-

ing measure to fund the gov-

ernment through next March

rather than try to push through

one or more 2017 appropri-

ations bills during the lame

duck session. The government

is currently operating under a

continuing resolution that pro-

vides funding through Dec. 9.

FIRST IMAGES FROM BLACKSKY’S PATHFINDER-1Spaceflight Industries’ BlackSky division showed off the first images from its first satellite Nov. 14.

The images from the Pathfinder-1 spacecraft, launched in September on an Indian PSLV rocket, in-

dicate that the satellite is operating as planned, taking images with a resolution of about two meters

per pixel. That resolution will improve as calibration of the spacecraft’s camera continues, the com-

pany said, calling the demonstration spacecraft a success. BlackSky ultimately plans to deploy a con-

stellation of 60 satellites providing images with a resolution of one meter.

“Successfully tested the prototype Mars tank last week,” SpaceX tweeted Nov. 16. “Hit both of our pressure targets – next up will be full cryo testing.”

The BlackSky Pathfinder-1 satellite captured this view of mountains around Kandahar in Afghanistan.


ESA MINISTERIAL

THE 22-NATION EUROPEAN SPACE

AGENCY in December will ask its gov-

ernments to fund a broad suite of pro-

grams in science, Earth observation,

telecommunications and exploration

for the coming several years — even

though it knows some of the propos-

als will be rejected out of hand.

ESA Director-General Jan Woerner

said the agency always comes in with

a wide list of initiatives that ultimately

prove too costly for some member states.

NORWAY’S THREAT, AND BRITAIN’S FOREIGN EXCHANGE ISSUEOf special concern this year is the threat-

ened sharp reduction in Norway’s con-

tribution to ESA’s optional program.

Norwegian officials have talked about

a possible 75-percent cut — a remark-

able decision that Norwegian Space

Agency officials are at pains to explain

to their counterparts.

Also of concern is the British pound’s

drop relative to the euro, which might

reduce Britain’s ability to fund ESA mis-

sions. Britain in recent years has become

a major ESA player in telecommunica-

tions and Earth observation.

More than 80 percent of ESA’s spend-

ing is from voluntary contributions from

their member states. These nations re-

view a program, evaluate the potential

for their domestic industry, and de-

termine how much to invest, know-

ing that 90 percent of their investment

will return to their territory in the form

of contracts to their national industry.

ESA has been chipping away at what

is called “fair return” for years to make

it more flexible, but it remains perhaps

the most important glue binding 22 na-

tions together.

The science program is the major ex-

ception to this rule. Science, not to be

confused with exploration, is funded by

mandatory contributions by each na-

tion based on its gross domestic prod-

uct. Woerner said he will be seeing a

modest increase in the science budget.

For the Dec. 1-2 ministerial conference

in Lucerne, Switzerland, ESA is asking for

about 11 billion euros ($12 billion) to cover

the agency’s activities over the next three

to five years. Some of the funding would

stretch out much beyond that.

Because this headline figure stretches

over different periods, Woerner said it

is not easy to read. “These numbers by

themselves have no real meaning,” he

said. “They cover different periods. What

is most important for us is our annual

budget of about 3.5 billion euros, plus

funds from the European Commission.”

With Europe’s Ariane 6 rocket now

fully funded and scheduled to launch

starting in 2020, ESA will not need to

present it to its ministers. But the multi-

year funding of Europe’s Guiana Space

Center spaceport, and the ongoing sup-

port for the Ariane 5 and Vega rockets,

will be on the agenda.

MARS EXPLORATION AND INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION FUNDING The two large-budget programs to be

debated at the ministerial conference

are likely to be the ExoMars explora-

tion program with Russia and Europe’s

continued participation in the Interna-

tional Space Station.

ESA is asking its governments for a

final payment of 300 million euros to

complete the ExoMars mission with Rus-

sia. The two-launch mission included

a Mars orbiter, now in place around

Mars; and an entry, descent and land-

ing package that performed most of its

work but crashed as it was closing in

on the surface, apparently following a

computer malfunction.

The second half of ExoMars includes

a Russian landing package and a Eu-

ropean rover to drill beneath the Mars

surface in search of signs of life.

Government and industry officials

say ExoMars is actually short 400 mil-

lion euros, but that Woerner has agreed

to absorb 100 million euros of that by

trimming other programs at ESA.

LIAR’S POKER ON INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATIONEurope’s participation in the Interna-

tional Space Station depends on an

agreement between Germany, France

and Italy. In recent ministerial confer-

ences, these three governments have

occasionally suggested they no longer

viewed ISS as a priority. Whether this re-

flected government policy or was only

a way of extracting greater contribu-

tions from the other partners is unclear.

French officials routinely say their

role in ISS depends in part on German

enthusiasm.

ESA’s goal: aim high and hope for the best


PETER B. de SELDING

SPACENEWS.COM | 7

ESA

ESA’s EOEP-5 BUDGET Cost Percentage (in millions of euros)

BLOCK 1 - FUTURE MISSIONS 197 14% 1 Mission prep. and instr. predev. (incl. 90 million euros for Sentinel Evolution) 197

BLOCK 2 - MISSION DEVELOPMENT 695 49% 2 EE-7 / Biomass 60 3 EE-8 / FLEX 285 4 EE-9 / New Call 200 5 Sentinel Evolution 90 6 SAOCOM-CS 60

BLOCK 3 - MISSION MANAGEMENT 235 17% 7 Mission Management 235

BLOCK 4 - EO SCIENCE FOR SOCIETY 200 14% 8 Scientific Data Exploitation 60 9 Eo Application Platform 115 10 Eo for Sustainable Development 25 11 CONTINGENCIES 83 6% TOTAL EOEP-5 1,410 100%

12 EarthWatch - GMECV+(a.k.a. CCI+) 90 13 EarthWatch - Incubed 40 14 EarthWatch - Altius 105

TOTAL EOP OPTIONAL PROGRAM ELEMENTS 1,625

BASIC ACTIVITIES - EOP ELEMENTS (TBC) 142.5 14 Earthnet 87.5 16 LTDP+ 55

Source: ESA SPACENEWS

ESA governments will decide Dec. 1-2 whether to accept a proposed fifth Earth Observation Envelope Program, EOEP-5, which would cover the period 2017-2021.

EOEP-5 is budgeted at 1.41 billion euros ($1.51 billion). The package covers the 7th and 8th Earth Explorer missions, Biomass and Flex, as well as funds for a ninth Earth Explorer to be selected later.

Also included was ESA’s participation in the Argentine government’s Satcom mission with a Saocom companion satellite. Both are to be launched together in 2019.

Europe’s Copernicus program features a series of satellites called Sentinels. ESA pays for the development of the first of each Sentinel series, with the European Commission financing the balance. ESA has budgeted 180 million euros for preparing the next generation of Sentinels, called Sentinel Evolution.

ESA’s own past satellites, notably the ERS and Envisat radar missions, produced a huge amount of data that ESA is now charged with maintaining in what it calls the Long-Term Data Preservation program.

Sentinel-1A, launched in 2014, carries a synthetic aperture radar for Earth observation

ESA SEEKS LONG-TERM EARTH OBSERVATION FUNDING

Despite the launch of a French astronaut

to the space station Nov. 17, France has been

hesitant to commit to maintaining ISS fund-

ing to 2024, which is the proposal on the ta-

ble at Lucerne.

As with ExoMars, the embarrassment of

ending Europe’s participation in ISS before

the United States, Russia, Japan and Can-

ada is likely too great for ESA governments.

While Europe’s ISS supporters are getting res-

tive — what comes after ISS? How does ISS

play into lunar or Mars exploration? — they

are unlikely to walk away early.

ASCHBACHER ON EARTH OBSERVATION ESA’s Earth observation program is the agen-

cy’s biggest, accounting for 30.5 percent of

its budget in 2016.

This year, the agency is presenting its

fifth Earth Observation Envelope Program

(EOEP), budgeted at 1.41 billion euros. To this

is added some 200 million euros in opera-

tional programs, including a proposed pub-

lic-private partnership with industry, called

InCubed, and the Belgian-led Altius satellite

for atmospheric sounding.

Other missions in EOEP-5 include the

Earth Explorer missions Biomass (EE-7) and

Flex (EE-8) environment-monitoring sat-

ellites and a proposed EE-9 mission yet to

be decided.

ESA Earth Observation Director Josef

Aschbacher said the ministers will be asked

to sign off on EOEP-5 as a whole. “No cher-

ry-picking,” he said. If the full funding com-

plement is not available, then one or more

of the proposed missions will need to be

scrapped to fit within the confirmed fund-

ing commitments.

Aschbacher said ESA governments have

endorsed the content of EOEP-5 but it will

be complicated to secure all the necessary

funds. For example, if no other major contrib-

utor joins Belgium for Altius, Belgium likely

will divert resources from EOEP-5.

“Member states have told us we have a

solid program,” Aschbacher said. “But there

is certainly a chance we will not receive 100

percent of what we’re asking for.”

In that case, does he have a Plan B with a

list of which missions to cut?

“No,” Aschbacher said. “If you have a Plan

B, that means your Plan A is dead.”


BUILDING SMALLSATS

Space Systems Loral, a company best

known for building geostationary tele-

communications satellites as big as school

buses, is expanding its role in the small

satellite business by offering its assistance — and

that of its parent company MDA Corp. of Can-

ada — to startups.

“No matter what you are trying to do, if it touches

space we can work with you to build a mission,”

Hale Reynolds, Space Systems Loral business de-

velopment director, said Nov. 16 at a Silicon Val-

ley Space Center TechTalk. “We have competency

in any kind of space hardware manufacturing as

well as on the business side and the data-distri-

bution side.”

SSL has contracts to build 21 satellites for low

Earth orbit, including 13 for Google’s Earth-obser-

vation subsidiary Terra Bella, seven for customers

it cannot yet name due to non-disclosure agree-

ments and one for Telesat, the Canadian satellite

communications company planning to build a

constellation of at least 117 satellites to provide

internet access. Six of the satellites SSL cannot

yet discuss are being built for a single customer.

Telesat, which is owned by Loral Space and

Communications of New York and Canada’s PSP

Investments pension fund, awarded contracts in

April to SSL and Britain’s Surrey Satellite Technol-

ogy Limited to each build a single prototype Ka-

band satellite for its planned constellation. The

prototypes are scheduled to launch in 2017.

This is not SSL’s first foray into low Earth or-

bit constellations. MDA purchased SSL from Loral

SSL lends a hand to smallsat startups

in 2012. When it was part of Loral, SSL built more

than 70 satellites for Globalstar, a satellite telephone

network conceived in the 1990s that struggled to

attract investment and filed for Chapter 11 bank-

ruptcy protection in 2002 due in part to the rapid

expansion of cellphone service.

After that experience, there was a bit of reluc-

tance at SSL to embrace low-Earth-orbit constel-

lations, “but lower spacecraft and launch costs

are now allowing more business cases to close,”

Reynolds said.

In 2014, Terra Bella, then called Skybox Im-

aging, hired SSL to build 13 satellites weighing

roughly 100 kilograms to gather high-resolution

still and video imagery from low Earth orbit. Un-

der the terms of the deal, SSL obtained an exclu-

sive license to market the small satellite bus.

Since 2014, SSL has been building small sat-

ellites in a dedicated manufacturing facility at its

Palo Alto headquarters. The firm set up parallel

production lines to speed work on Terra Bella sat-

ellites. Unlike the enormous geostationary tele-

communications satellites that often take years

to design and build because each is unique, SSL

could build some small satellites in a matter of

weeks, Reynolds said.

For a new constellation, SSL might spend “a

number of months” building the first satellite,

“but we can get that down to build-times mea-

sured in weeks if we are pumping out dozens,”

Reynolds said.

In addition to building satellites under fixed-

price contracts with defined delivery schedules, SSL

is offering to help startups acquire Federal Com-

munications Commission and National Oceanic

From technical assistance to access to financing, a satellite shop sets itself up as smallsat one-stop

DEBRA WERNER

SPACENEWS.COM | 9

SSL

ARTI

ST’S

CO

NCE

PT

and Atmospheric Administration licenses, find

launch vehicles and financing, navigate the U.S.

regulatory process, operate satellites in orbit and

sell Earth-observation data.

“If, for example, you are interested in an Earth-ob-

servation mission, we have groups that can help

with ground systems, satellite operations, data

downlink, production and distribution,” Reyn-

olds said. SSL has access to a global network of

resellers for space-based remote-sensing data

and ties to the U.S. government agencies that buy

data, he added.

Through its parent company, SSL also can help

startups access financing through Export Devel-

opment Canada, an important advantage since

the U.S. Export-Import Bank cannot currently

approve loans of more than $10 million because

Congress has blocked nominees from joining the

bank’s board, which prevents the quorum the bank

board needs to approve large loans.

“Often startups have great ideas and interesting

business cases but they need a proven company to

stand behind their concepts and demonstrate their

feasibility and manufacturability to equity and debt

financiers,” Reynolds said. “SSL is accustomed to

helping startups attract financing this way.”

For example, SSL supported Terra Bella’s busi-

ness plan before the company, then known as

Skybox Imaging, was purchased in 2014 by Goo-

gle, SSL spokeswoman Wendy Lewis said. MDA

also helped San Francisco-based Earth-observa-

tion constellation operator Planet with business

planning as part of its role as prime contractor

for the RapidEye mission, she added. In 2015,

Planet acquired Berlin-based BlackBridge and

its five-satellite RapidEye medium-resolution

imaging satellites.

Most startups have set their sites on low Earth

orbit, but SSL also is offering transportation to

companies planning to send spacecraft into more

distant orbits. “Our large geostationary telecom-

munication satellites are so big that we actually

have extra capacity,” Reynolds said.

“If you have a small satellite you want to go to

geostationary orbit or geostationary transfer orbit,

we can host you as a rideshare out to those areas

and then deploy your spacecraft.”

Four of the 13 SkySats that SSL is building for Terra Bella launched in September on

an Arianespace Vega rocket.

SPAC

EX

SPACENEWS.COM | 11

and commercial space stations. The

Outer Space Treaty requires the U.S.

government to provide “authorization

and continuing supervision” of space

activities, but no agency has clear au-

thority today to handle those non-tra-

ditional missions.

Jim Muncy of PoliSpace suggested

the new administration take a light-

touch approach to such oversight except

in cases where those missions might

interfere with other activities. “People

who are launching satellite refurbish-

ment or other things that are going to

be in the busier areas of low Earth orbit

or geosynchronous orbit should have

a slightly more muscular” regulation,

he said. “But if you’re going beyond

Earth orbit, it could be just a registry.”

Others hope that regulatory reform,

one overall policy theme from the Trump

campaign, is also applied to commer-

cial space. “It is time to modernize and

upgrade regulations” in areas like com-

mercial remote sensing, said Courtney

Stadd, who dealt with space policy at

the White House and several agencies

and now works for TIP Technologies.

Caryn Schenewerk, senior counsel

and director of government affairs at

SpaceX, agreed, saying that any effort

The commercial space indus-

try hopes the administration

of U.S. President-elect Don-

ald Trump pursues regulatory

reforms and continues existing efforts

to support the industry’s growth.

A panel at the Spacecom conference

Nov. 16 in Houston offered a wish list

of issues they hope the next adminis-

tration addresses in the next two years,

largely following ongoing discussion

on topics such as regulatory oversight

of new commercial space activities and

space traffic management.

George Nield, associate administra-

tor for commercial space transportation

at the Federal Aviation Administration,

said a major issue for him was shifting

space traffic management work from

the U.S. Air Force to a civil agency such

as his. “That would focus on enhancing

the safety of space operations and pre-

serving the space environment,” he said.

A recent report prepared by the De-

partment of Transportation at the re-

quest of Congress concluded that it

would be feasible to hand over safe-

ty-related space situational awareness

work for non-military satellites to the

FAA. The agency also held an indus-

try day in October to discuss how that

transition might take place, provided

both the administration and Congress

approved that shift.

Another current issue the industry

hopes the new administration will take

up is oversight of so-called “non-tra-

ditional” commercial space activities,

such as lunar landers, satellite servicing

to update regulations is a long-term

process that should start sooner rather

than later. “If we don’t start that process

today, every day we don’t start it is a day

longer that companies are trying to fit

square pegs into round holes,” she said.

A related issue, she said, was ensur-

ing FAA’s commercial space transpor-

tation office, whose budget is less than

$20 million a year, has sufficient re-

sources to oversee the industry without

delaying launches and related activi-

ties. “I plan on spending some of my

time explaining to people in D.C. why

Dr. Nield’s team needs increased re-

sources to undertake these activities,”

she said.

While some seek reforms and new ini-

tiatives, others want the new administra-

tion to maintain current efforts in other

areas, such as government partnerships.

Chad Brinkley, a business development

executive with NanoRacks, noted his

company has benefited from Space Act

Agreements with NASA regarding use of

the International Space Station.

“What we’re hoping to see going

forward in the new administration is

continuing that trend,” he said, such

as greater commercial use of the sta-

tion.

REGULATORY REFORM

What NewSpace wants from President-elect Trump

JEFF FOUST

“If we don’t start that process today, every day we don’t start it is a day longer that companies are trying to fit square pegs into round holes.”

CARYN SCHENEWERK, SPACEX SENIOR COUNSEL

AND DIRECTOR OF GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS

12 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

NAS

A

MAKE THE MOON GREAT AGAIN

beat Dewey in 1948.

For scientists and other ad-

vocates of lunar exploration,

the moon appears closer than

it has in years in a different

way. A change in presiden-

tial administrations is giving

them new hope that the moon

will become more prominent

in NASA’s human exploration

plans, and that the govern-

ment will support commer-

cial lunar efforts as well.

“It’s an important time,

given what’s going on in the

United States right now,” said

Clive Neal, a University of

Notre Dame planetary sci-

entist who chairs the Lunar

Exploration Advisory Group

(LEAG), at the group’s annual

meeting Nov. 1 — a week be-

fore Election Day — in Co-

lumbia, Maryland.

“We need to start putting

rubber to the road” by demon-

strating the interest in, and

capabilities for, lunar explo-

ration, he said. “We’ve been

there — Buzz [Aldrin] has been

there — but we certainly ha-

ven’t done that.”

That deliberately echoed

President Barack Obama’s

famous “been there, done

that” dismissal of the moon

as a destination for human

spaceflight. “I understand that

some believe that we should

attempt a return to the sur-

face of the moon first, as pre-

viously planned,” he said in an

April 2010 speech at the Ken-

nedy Space Center to discuss

his space exploration plans.

On Nov. 14, the

public celebrated

the “supermoon,”

an astronomincal

phenomenon where the full

moon appears a little bigger

and brighter than usual be-

cause it is slightly closer to

the Earth.

This supermoon received

extra attention because it

was the closest the moon

has been to since Truman

Back to the moon, again?

JEFF FOUST

For lunar exploration advocates, the moon appears closer now than at any time since Obama took office

“But I just have to say pretty

bluntly here: We’ve been there

before. Buzz has been there.”

That speech, and the pas-

sage of a NASA authorization

bill six months later, brought

an end to NASA’s plans for a

human return to the moon

announced by President

George W. Bush in 2004. But

even before the outcome of

the 2016 election, many at the

LEAG meeting were hoping

that the next administration

would stoke renewed interest

in lunar exploration.

Follow the water In preparation of a potential

transition, some have been

dusting off and updating their

concepts. In 2011, Paul Spu-

dis of the Lunar and Planetary

Institute and Tony Lavoie of

NASA’s Marshall Space Flight

Center published a proposal

to create a base at the lunar

poles. That base would be

developed by robotic space-

craft to later support human

crews, while mining water

ice to turn into propellant for

use both to support the base

and for other applications.

At the LEAG meeting,

Spudis presented an up-

dated version of that plan.

The original plan made use

of only commercial launch

vehicles, like the Atlas 5; the

revised version uses NASA’s

still-in-development Space

Launch System heavy-lift

SPACENEWS.COM | 13

“Personally, I think going to the moon as part of an extended presence in space is vital. It’s a destination just a few days away where we’ll learn a lot about humans being able to live in an extremely hostile environment.”

ROBERT WALKER, TRUMP SPACE POLICY ADVISERWEX

LER

WAL

KER

rocket for carrying heavier

payloads to the lunar sur-

face. Commercial crew ve-

hicles would carry crews into

low Earth orbit, with reusable

spacecraft ferrying them, and

cargo, to lunar orbit and then

to the surface.

The new approach costs

effectively the same as the

previous one: $88 billion

over 16 years, versus $87 bil-

lion of the original plan. “We

hope to get leverage from

both international partners

and commercial partners,”

he said, with those partners

contributing components

that cover $16 billion of that

overall cost.

The base would produce

propellant that could be used

to support various activi-

ties in cislunar space. “Ef-

fectively, we’re focusing on

benefits, real payback rather

than public excitement,”

Spudis said, contrasting his

strategy with NASA’s Mars

exploration plans, which

he believes are not sustain-

able with projected budgets.

“Effectively, you’re going to

dream about a manned Mars

mission forever, and you’re

never going to do it.”

Spudis’ proposal, and other

concepts that make use of

water-ice deposits on the

moon, require first finding

those deposits and determin-

ing how feasible it is to mine

them. NASA has quietly been

working on one such mis-

sion: Resource Prospector

(RP), a 300-kilogram rover

that would launch in 2020

to land at the lunar poles and

look for water-ice deposits

in parts of craters that are in

permanent shadow.

The mission, funded

through the Advanced Ex-

ploration Systems division

of NASA’s human explora-

tion and operations director-

ate, has been making steady

progress, and is on track for a

system requirements review

in 2017, said Tony Colaprete

of NASA’s Ames Research

Center at the LEAG meeting.

“We’re really getting into the

nit and grit” of mission plan-

ning, he said.

The $250 million Resource

Pathfinder could play a key

role in determining the fea-

sibility of mission concepts

that require use of lunar

water. “It’s about under-

standing whether or not it’s

economical,” Colaprete said.

“That’s ultimately what RP is

all about.”

Spudis agreed. “We’re at a

level of nearly complete ig-

norance as to the nature of

the polar deposits,” he said. “I

look at Resource Prospector as

the first dart on the dartboard.

It’s going to give us a first-or-

der answer to some of the big

questions, but it’s not by any

means going to be the only

mission we need.”

Making the moon great againAt the LEAG meeting, attend-

ees hoped that whoever won

the presidential election, he

or she would give more at-

tention to lunar exploration.

Many, though, expected a cer-

tain outcome. “There’s been

very little talk about space

and space policy, but with

the potential for this country

to elect its first female pres-

ident,” Neal said, “it begs the

question to ask that first fe-

male president who will be

the first woman to walk on

the moon.”

With Donald Trump’s vic-

tory a week after the LEAG

meeting, that question will

be put on hold indefinitely.

Instead, the space commu-

nity is trying to determine

how a return to the moon

might fit into a Trump ad-

ministration space policy.

The policy statements the

Trump campaign issued in

the weeks prior to the elec-

tion made no explicit men-

tion of the moon — or of Mars,

for that matter — instead en-

dorsing a renewed emphasis

on human space exploration

in general. However, Robert

Walker, the space policy ad-

viser to the Trump campaign,

did indicate that, at least in

14 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

“From the discovery of water ice on the moon until this day, the

American objective should have been a permanent outpost of rovers and

machines at the poles with occasional manned missions for science and

maintenance.”U.S. REP. JIM BRIDENSTINE (R-OKLA.)

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his opinion, going back to

the moon made sense.

“Personally, I think going

to the moon as part of an ex-

tended presence in space is

vital,” he said at an Oct. 26

meeting of the Federal Avi-

ation Administration’s Com-

mercial Space Transportation

Advisory Committee. “It’s a

destination just a few days

away where we’ll learn a lot

about humans being able to

live in an extremely hostile

environment.”

As it turned out, one of the

speakers at the LEAG meet-

ing was someone who could

have considerable influence

on a decision for a human re-

turn to the moon. U.S. Rep.

Jim Bridenstine (R-Okla.)

gave a keynote speech at

the meeting, touching upon

issues of lunar exploration,

including the discovery of

lunar water ice.

“This single discovery

should have immediately

transformed America’s space

program,” he said, citing its

use both to support crews

and as propellant. “From the

discovery of water ice on

the moon until this day, the

American objective should

have been a permanent out-

post of rovers and machines

Playing the NASA administrator name gameHere’s a quick rundown of some of the names making the rounds as NASA administrator candidates under Trump:JIM BRIDENSTINEBridenstine has been active on space issues since fi rst being elected to the House of Representatives in 2012, serving on the House Science Committee and House Armed Services Committee. Those posts have given him a voice on both civil and national security space policy issues. He is best known for the introduction in April of the American Space Renaissance Act, a comprehensive space policy bill that covered topics in national security, civil and commercial space. The bill was designed to provide what he called a “holistic” approach to space policy, rather that treating those topics separately.

EILEEN COLLINSAnother name circulated as a potential candidate for the job is former astronaut Eileen Collins, who spoke briefl y at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland July but stopped short of formally endorsing Trump. Collins, in that speech, said that the nation needed “leadership that will make America’s space program fi rst again.”

MIKE GRIFFINWould Mike Gri� n, who served as NASA administrator under President George W. Bush, be willing to reprise that role under President Trump? Washington insiders say Gri� n, who earlier in his career worked for the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization and ran the CIA-backed venture capital fund In-Q-Tel, is being considered — along with Bridenstine — for Secretary of the Air Force. NASA administrator could make a nice consolation prize for either one.

Here are a few tongue-in-cheek suggestions of our own:ELLIOT PULHAMThe former Space Foundation boss is such a hard-core Trump supporter he may have been fi red for it. Pulham’s only problem is that he’d take big cut in pay and would look askance at having to travel on less than Air Force One.

IGOR KOMAROVWith Trump’s belief that the Russians do everything better than the U.S., the the head of Roscosmos would be ideal, except for the fact that he doesn’t speak English and has a Russian passport.

PETER THIELTrump’s biggest fi nancial backer is a spacenut and FOE (friend of Elon), but SpaceNews would be reluctant to report on him given his proclivity to sue media into bankruptcy over unfavorable ink.

HILLARY CLINTONOn the Lincolnesque theory of keeping your enemies close, Obama employed her as Secretary of State. Clinton certainly has the management chops for the job, but Trump would probably rather send her on a one-way trip to Mars.

at the poles with occasional

manned missions for science

and maintenance.”

Bridenstine was invited

to speak at LEAG because

of his space policy work in

the House, including ef-

forts to clear up regulatory

issues regarding commer-

cial lunar missions (he was

introduced by Bob Richards,

chief executive of Moon Ex-

press, one company work-

ing on lunar landers). But

a little over a week later,

Bridenstine emerged as a

leading, if early, candidate

to be NASA administrator in

the Trump administration,

which could give his views

about the moon more prom-

inence as a Trump adminis-

tration space policy slowly

takes shape.

At the conclusion of his

LEAG speech, Bridenstine

called the risks facing the

United States in space, from

growing orbital debris to

potential threats by China,

a “Sputnik moment” for the

nation that lunar explora-

tion and resources could

help solve. “America must

forever be the preeminent

spacefaring nation, and the

moon is our path to being

so,” he concluded.

16 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

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4TELECOM WISH LIST

“U.S. competitiveness should be

highlighted in the form of a full board

of directors at the Ex-Im Bank,” said

David Logsdon, executive director of

the CompTIA Space Enterprise Council,

a Washington trade group representing

companies involved in commercial, civil

and national security space.

The Ex-Im Bank needs only one

additional board member to meet

the required three-member quorum

U.S. President-elect Donald

Trump’s objectives for

his first 100 days include

shaping trade policy, boosting

investment in U.S. infrastructure, and

expanding military investment. While

space is not specifically mentioned in

these plans, actions taken in the early

days of the new administration will very

likely have an impact on the industry

further down the line.

The satellite telecommunications

industry also has hopes for what the

Trump administration will do once it

focuses on this sector.

Based on interviews with several

industry officials, SpaceNews compiled

the top four wants the satellite industry

has for the next four years.

1. FULL RESTORATION OF EX-IM BANK

Congress reauthorized the Export-Import

Bank of the United States’ charter in

December 2015 following a five-month

lapse during which it couldn’t issue new

loans. However, the export credit agency

still isn’t in a position to finance new

satellite deals. That’s because three of

the five seats on its board of directors

are currently vacant. Without a quorum,

Ex-Im cannot vote to approve new deals

valued at more than $10 million.

The U.S. Export-Import Bank hasn’t been able to finance new satellite deals for more than a year.

satellite-industry hopes for the Trump administration

for approving new, big-ticket deals.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman

Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who opposes

export-credit financing as a form of

corporate welfare, has been blocking

Obama administration nominee Mark

McWatters, a former staffer for the

Republican-led House Financial Services

Committee, since January. Shelby, who

was re-elected Nov. 8 to a sixth term

in the Senate, could continue to be a

roadblock under Trump.

The satellite industry, however, CALEB HENRY

SPACENEWS.COM | 17

hopes the Trump administration, with its promise

to promote domestic manufacturing, will find a

way around Shelby and restore the bank’s ability

to support satellite and launch projects.

“Supporting a full board of directors at the

Export-Import Bank would put U.S. manufacturers

on more-even ground, giving [customer from]

other nations access to upfront satellite costs

that would be built in the U.S.,” said Tom Stroup,

president of the Satellite Industry Association,

which advocates on behalf of U.S. satellite operators,

service providers and their suppliers

According to the Aerospace Industries Asso-

ciation — the Arlington, Virginia-based trade

group representing roughly 300 major aerospace

and defense companies and their suppliers — the

Ex-Im Bank provided more than $900 million in

financing to the satellite and launch sectors in 2014.

“That has completely gone away,” said Frank

Slazer, AIA’s vice president of space systems.

Slazer said critics of Ex-Im often refer to export

credit financing as a dilution of free-market

principles. However, other nations, notably France

and China have export credit agencies of their

own that continue to finance satellite projects.

Canada-based MDA Corp. has also leveraged its

home country in order to use Export Development

Canada for support of its U.S.-based manufacturer

Space Systems Loral. Multiple satellite orders with U.S.

manufacturers remain stalled, with manufacturers

citing the lack of export-credit-agency funding

as the principal reason.

“It’s a small industrial base,” said Slazer. “We are

not talking about the automotive industry; these

are serious sales and serious impacts. Also, Ex-Im

makes money. It’s been a contributor to the bottom

line for the U.S. government. If people want to get

rid of export financing’s impact on the economy,

we should come up with a treaty and get rid of

them around the world, not unilaterally disarm.

That’s just crazy.”

2. MORE ITAR REFORM

The satellite industry wants still-looser regulations

when it comes to exporting space-related tech-

nologies to other countries. Industry has regularly

complained that widely available technologies

are still being classified as weaponry under the

United States Munitions List, even though other

countries have long since developed the ability to

produce the same items on their own.

Reforms to the International Traffic in Arms

Regulations (ITAR), which dictate what can and

cannot be sold to other nations, eased the rules for

36 countries in 2014, but the effects of ITAR remain

strongly felt in the U.S. and around the world.

“The satellite industry needs regulatory agility

— predictable and supportive regulations and

licensing that encourage growth of the U.S.

satellite industry and attracts investment in new

technologies and applications — all the while

ensuring space is a safe and secure environment

The Obama administration shifted export licensing for most — but not all — satellites and satellite components back to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

CREA

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18 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

in which to operate,” said SIA’s Stroup.

AIA’s Slazer pointed to electric-propulsion

systems as an example of a technology that

once seemed appropriate to have on ITAR, but

no longer deserves such treatment.

“Back in 1998, that was cutting edge. But now

it’s available globally commercially. It makes no

sense to have that classified as weapons-related,”

he said.

Slazer said it has been almost two-and-a-half

years since AIA submitted a list of ITAR-black-

listed technologies for reevaluation. The Obama

administration could still evaluate these claims

before Obama leaves office Jan. 20. If it doesn’t,

further ITAR reform will be up to the Trump

administration.

3. SAVE SPECTRUM FOR SATELLITES

Federal Communications Commission Chairman

Tom Wheeler, who told the satellite industry last

winter to get used to the idea of sharing Ka-band

spectrum with future terrestrial wireless providers,

didn’t exactly smooth things over this summer

when he warned the industry not to publicly

criticize the FCC’s decision to open up some

of that spectrum to 5G services.

Wheeler, a Senate-confirmed Obama appointee

holding an especially plum position, is almost

certain to be replaced when Trump comes to town.

David Hartshorn, secretary general of the

London- and Washington-based Global VSAT

Forum, said the incoming Trump administration

should know the satellite industry wants to bury

the hatchet from last year’s World Radiocom-

munication Conference (WRC-15), where the

wireless and satellite industries fought fiercely

over spectrum rights.

“We’ve said this many times before, and

now we will need to say it again to the Trump

administration: it is not our intent to detract

from the success of the wireless industry. On

the contrary, they are one of our most important

users, and we look forward to working as

partners to enable the broader introduction

of 5G through, among other means, satellite

backhaul,” said Hartshorn.

Wheeler’s blunt comments to the satellite

industry in March that it would be “far more

practical to get on the [5G] train than to be run

over by it,” were made in response to the satellite

industry’s oppositional stance at WRC-15. Aarti

Holla-Maini, secretary general of the EMEA

Satellite Operators Association — a Brussels-based

trade group representing operators in Europe,

the Middle East and Africa — said it is important

to see how commissioners at the FCC will treat

satellite businesses in the future. Current ongoing

matters, such as the Spectrum Frontiers Notice

of Proposed Rule-Making, which could cede

satellite industry spectrum to mobile network

operators for the upcoming 5G standard, will

unfold during Trump’s four-year term.

“So far, the U.S. has decided to go its own

path and identify for 5G frequency bands that

the [International Telecommunication Union]

made clear were not available for such purposes

on a worldwide basis,” said Holla-Maini. “How

the incoming Trump administration will decide

to proceed in its preparation towards WRC-19

on the selection of 5G bands will be of great

interest to the satellite industry.”

4. DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE SATELLITE INDUSTRY

That the Trump administration simply remembers

the satellite industry outside of just military or

civil space applications is essential to making

sure all other policy objectives don’t fall by the

wayside, industry representatives said.

Along with access to export credit, further

export reform and enough spectrum to do

business, industry representatives said satel-

lite communications providers also want to be

assured a seat at the table when the Trump ad-

ministration makes plans to address U.S. tele-

com needs.

“Under the Trump administration, there is

bound to be a large infrastructure stimulus

package,” said the CompTIA Space Enterprise

Council’s Logsdon. “Broadband connectivity

provided to the infrastructure industries in

the remote [and] rural areas will be essential.

Much of that connectivity can be provided

by the satellite industry. It will be essential

that the Trump administration capitalizes on

the unique attributes of satellite broadband

connectivity.”

Holla-Maini of the EMEA Satellite Operators

Association said the worldwide satellite industry

will also be watching for how much emphasis

is put on international collaboration, given the

global nature of satellite technology.

“We look forward to working with the Trump

administration on implementing policies that

are technology neutral, advance connectivity

to the entire nation, and results in innovative,

high-quality broadband services as well as the

supporting the future growth of the U.S. space

industry sector,” she said.

“How the incoming

Trump administration

will decide to proceed in its

preparation towards

WRC-19 on the selection

of 5G bands will be of great

interest to the satellite

industry.”CR

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SPACENEWS.COM | 19

A transition vet offers tips to Trump’s NASA transition team

At the time of publication, there were conflict-

ing reports on whether or when there will be a

NASA transition team and, if so, how many in-

dividuals will compose such a team. On the

assumption that some sort of “landing party” —

however structured or short-lived — eventually

is assigned to the agency, the following unso-

licited advice is offered.

Dear NASA transition team member:

I have no doubt you are feeling

elated at playing a part in history,

while feeling profoundly stressed

with so much to do in so little time.

I can relate.

After the hotly contested 2000 race, I was

honored to lead George W. Bush’s NASA transition

team. I remember the excitement of playing a

role, however modest, in laying the foundation

for a new president and his team. Remember

as you enter NASA Headquarters, the political

leadership and the civil servants will be taking your

measure just as much as you will be measuring

them. And if you have ambitions to work in the

new administration, the added stress comes from

knowing that your performance is equivalent to

a very intense job interview.

My own experience was overall positive. With

very few exceptions, NASA officials and support

staff worked with us in the spirit of doing what

was right for the country. With that said, I am

hopeful your team will include someone with

appropriate inside knowledge of the agency. If

not, you are vulnerable to numerous ways the

system can hide issues that should be known

upfront to the new team. For example, it was

several months before NASA officials volun-

teered details on an internal space exploration

initiative that had been developed without the

knowledge of the previous administration. They

were afraid premature disclosure would lead

to its termination. It was a program worthy of

support. If we’d been briefed earlier, we could

have provided greater support for it.

It is a heady time. After filling out the paper-

work to get the necessary temporary clearances

and other personnel-related administrivia

and receiving the marching orders from the

transition leadership on the major policy

themes they want emphasized, you and your

comrades-in-arms are now set to pay your

initial visits to the agency.

RUMOR MILLS AND SUDDEN FRIENDSYou will also be subject to many rumors.

Information is power in D.C. Any tidbit of

information, no matter how trivial, is worth

something to the consultants, lobbyists,

journalists, bloggers, and self-appointed social

media space policy mavens who are constantly

trying to demonstrate their inside knowledge.

And many people with an interest in the issues

within your portfolio are not beyond greatly

exaggerating their level of access.

I’ve lived and worked in the nation’s capital

for 40 years and can attest to the hypocrisy that

has always been a growth industry within the

Beltway. But I have to say that in the wake of

this election, I have never seen anything like

the hypocrisy among the political class. The

very people who disdained Donald Trump on

the Monday before the election were currying

for political favor within 24 hours of Hillary

Clinton’s concession phone call. By now, I am

sure you have discovered many “friends” you

never knew existed the day before the election.

Information is power in D.C.

Any tidbit of information,

no matter how trivial, is worth

something to the

consultants, lobbyists,

journalists, bloggers, and

self-appointed social media space-policy

mavens constantly

trying to demonstrate

their inside knowledge.

COMMENTARY Courtney Stadd

20 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

DRINKING FROM THE FIRE HYDRANTThe other phenomenon you will experience is

that your world suddenly becomes very narrow.

While there will be much speculation on your

team’s activities by blog sites, trade publications,

general press and rumor mongering, you and

your team will be blissfully oblivious to it all. You

are tasked with a momentous job: drinking from

a fire hydrant of information from the agency,

along with other high-pressure streams from

Congress, industry and academia. Believe me,

between the schedule pressures imposed on you

by the president-elect’s team and coming up to

speed on the agency’s policy, programmatic,

budgetary, and personnel challenges, you

will have no time to absorb what uninformed

outsiders are saying.

When you come to NASA, you and your team

will be assigned a location at NASA Headquar-

ters, which will become your transition office

for processing agency materials and meeting

with your team and select agency officials. I

recommend you choose to meet officials in

their offices and treat the transition office as a

hide-away for the team to collect its thoughts

and lay out future plans.

Bureaucracies relish process and paperwork,

so prepare yourself to be offered a lovely set

of tabbed notebooks (in physical or electronic

form). These will include background on all

the major programs, position descriptions of

all senior officials at HQ and the field centers,

budget history and out-year projections. It is

worth poring through, but don’t forget the

notebooks represent what the bureaucracy and

the outgoing administration want you and the

new administration to see.

As useful as these materials may be, the

personal discussions with NASA Administrator

Charlie Bolden, his senior staff, and the asso-

ciate and assistant administrators will be the

most insightful in terms of highlighting the

challenges that lay in wait. Bolden is gracious

and hospitable and has no doubt instructed his

staff to put aside personal views and to be as

forthcoming and cooperative as possible. Also,

you’d be wise to talk to project-level people to

get a feel for operations and culture. Most will be

genuinely interested in assisting the new team.

You will also want to do what I and my tran-

sition team colleague, Scott Pace, did which was

walk around headquarters unaccompanied for

informal chats with NASA employees. You will

likely pick up useful nuggets that may provide

additional “color” and insight into what you

are hearing from the administrator’s ninth

floor offices. These informal chats will also

give you and the team a sense of the morale

in the agency as the civil servants anxiously

await major leadership changes.

PERSONNEL MATTERSOne of the most salient challenges you will

be facing will be recruiting talented personnel

to fill the senior political ranks of the agency.

In NASA’s case, there are only a handful

of political positions to fill. This entails the

Senate-confirmed positions (Administrator,

Deputy Administrator, Chief Financial Officer,

Inspector General) and seven or so Schedule

C, or non-Senate-confirmed positions. Most

of NASA’s senior positions are non-political

and there are specific statutes and regulations

governing the career Senior Executive Service

ranks during a political transition. Because

NASA’s pool of political appointees is small

compared to other agencies, it means that

who you select to fill those positions to carry

out the new president’s policies is all the

more critical.

President-elect Trump is also the first modern

president to come to office beholden to so few

campaign loyalists looking for jobs. That means

that the administration will be less constrained

in reaching out to new sources for talent. Fur-

thermore, the political reality is that given the

nature of the Senate confirmation process, it

is likely that President Trump will not have his

new administrator named and confirmed before

spring. That means the transition team will be

suggesting a Schedule C (likely a member of

the transition team), combined with an Obama

hold-over or non-career SES as acting NASA

administrator, to manage the agency between

Inauguration Day and when the new boss enters

headquarters.

Because NASA’s pool of political

appointees is small compared

to other agencies, it

means that who you select to fill those positions

to carry-out the new president’s

policies is all the more critical.

SPACENEWS.COM | 21

THE VETTING PROCESSHaving experienced the transition of two NASA

administrators, the challenge of finding the

right person to serve is not trivial. If you opt

for a talented business executive, it’s easy to

tantalize them with the prospect of running

the world’s preeminent space agency. But the

fantasy usually falls flat as they contemplate the

torture of filling out reams of confirmation-related

paperwork. Depending on the complexity of their

finances and background, they will have to hire

a pricey law firm to assist them. FBI field agents

will canvass their neighbors and colleagues to

ensure that what has been stated on the forms

aligns with what others have to say about them.

If the nominee survives those vetting stages,

they then have to deal with the “joy” of the

Senate confirmation process, which has its

own detailed questionnaires that the nominee

or their attorneys will need to complete (They

will need the attorneys to ensure that they

are not inadvertently perjuring themselves).

And if they manage to survive that process

they can expect the added joy of having

twenty-something-year -old staffers doing

a deep dive into their documents, as well as

anything and everything that has ever been

written or said about them. If they have lived

a full and interesting life, they have probably

said or done some things that may qualify

as dumb or slightly embarrassing. If they’ve

forgotten about any of that, they need not fret.

Believe me, a Senate staffer will eventually

find it. And depending on the political agenda

of the chairman and ranking member of the

Senate Commerce Committee, which conducts

confirmation hearings for NASA nominees,

or the desire of anonymous staff sources to

make mischief, be assured the embarrassing

disclosure will become public.

This is why finding anyone willing to make

the leap from industry to life in public service

can be challenging.

Your job is not to recruit talent, but the tran-

sition team will be asked to define the criteria

for the administrator candidates that the White

House should consider. That is where you should

lay out the range of political, administrative and

technical skills that an administrator should

possess. If such skills cannot be found in one

person, it is important to suggest how the

division of skills might be allocated between

the administrator and the deputy.

As a former staffer of the National Space

Council, I am pleased to hear that the incom-

ing administration wants to re-establish it

under the leadership of Vice President-elect

Mike Pence. You would be doing him and the

future council staff a great service by identi-

fying those strategic space issues that need

attention. One of those issues is the need to

have an interagency understanding of how

NASA’s Space Launch System heavy-lift rocket

can be deployed as both a civil and military

asset. I am also hearing informal talk among

those who claim to be close to the vice presi-

dent-elect about potential interest in a review

regarding whether and how NASA can achieve

efficiencies and cost savings through closing

or consolidating certain NASA field centers.

The issue of closing down or privatizing some

centers crops up every few years. If your team

ultimately decides to recommend that issue for

consideration, you need to be sure that the pros

and cons are thoroughly assessed and that the

administration is prepared for the inevitable

political backlash.

In the commercial space sector, the in-

coming administration is the beneficiary of

decades of effective pro-commercial space

policies and regulations. Although there are

areas that need urgent improvements (e.g.

modernizing licensing procedures governing

commercial satellite imagery), the space

industry needs to be assured, sooner than

later, that the new administration will build

on its predecessor’s commitment to a robust

private space industry.

On behalf of those of us, regardless of

political affiliation, who believe in strong

American civil and commercial space sectors,

we are all vested in your success.

COURTNEY A. STADD WAS HEAD OF GEORGE W.

BUSH’S NASA TRANSITION TEAM. HE IS CURRENTLY AN

AEROSPACE MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT.

Although there are areas that need urgent improvements,the space industry needs to be assured … that the Trump administration will build on its predecessor’s commitment to a robust private space industry.

NAS

A/BI

LL IN

GAL

LS

22 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

MY TAKE Jim Muncy

WHILE NASA AND THE AIR FORCE STILL

dominate federal spending on space

activities, the growing importance of

public-private partnerships and the ex-

plosion of business-to-business space

commerce are creating an outsized role

for the small regulatory and promotional

agencies inside the Departments of

Transportation and Commerce.

While U.S. President-elect Donald

Trump will likely submit his proposed

cabinet-level secretaries of those depart-

ments within a few weeks, the question is

whether those secretaries and their early

hires as undersecretaries and Schedule

C positions will even know that among

their statutory responsibilities is licens-

ing and promoting vital segments of the

U.S. commercial space industry. And that

those responsibilities are carried out by

civil servants (frequently on an acting

basis in commerce’s case) buried sev-

eral layers inside one of the many agen-

cies under their jurisdiction.

That suggests that America’s national

security reliance on commercial space

communications, overhead imagery,

and launch services — plus our civil-

ian exploration and scientific missions

in space — are all further dependent on

three tiny offices inside Commerce and

Transportation, plus the Satellite Divi-

sion of the International Bureau of the

independent Federal Communications

Commission. So getting value for the

taxpayer from over $40 billion in fed-

eral space investments depends in part

on the effectiveness and productivity

of less than $30 million to $40 million

in regulatory and promotional offices.

Space transitions aren’t just about NASA anymore

Of course, the global commercial space

marketplace is nearly 10 times larger

than U.S. government space spending.

Presumably, ensuring U.S. commer-

cial providers have a streamlined path

to compete for a share of $400 billion is

of some economic relevance to the na-

tion… and even minor political consid-

erations like job creation.

Among these critical small offices,

perhaps best known is the Federal Avi-

ation Administration’s Office of Com-

mercial Space Transportation. FAA/AST

has seen a marked growth in budget and

staffing as well as extraordinary pub-

lic discussion of expanded authority

in recent years. That’s partly driven by

increasing launch activity, including

SpaceX, Orbital ATK, and soon many

others winning back launch market

and resuplying the International Space

Station. But it is also a reflection of both

new space applications (satellite servic-

ing, on-orbit manufacturing) and new

approaches to existing applications

(remote sensing and big LEO internet

constellations) that are collectively en-

abled by cheaper and more plentiful

launch capabilities.

While AST’s total resources have in-

creased (to nearly $25 million in the 2017

budget), so has its workload, with much

more ahead of them. AST’s launch reg-

ulations, for example, reflect primarily

The FAA’s office of Commercial Space Transportation licenses all commercial U.S. launches, including the cargo missions Orbital ATK and SpaceX fly to the Internatonal Space Station on NASA’s behalf.

SPACENEWS.COM | 23

the ICBM-heritage expendable launch

vehicles of the 1990s. As U.S. commercial

launch rates increase from a dozen or

so a year to a hundred and more, many

carrying not one but perhaps dozens of

payloads, the current licensing process

will grind to a halt. Old process-based

rules will need to be replaced with stream-

lined performance-based ones, and that

will require an increase in both technical

and legal expertise at AST to understand

the latest technologies and operational

realities of industry.

But the reality is that AST, which

rests uneasily next to the leviathan air

safety, air traffic, and airports offices in-

side the FAA, isn’t in a position to con-

trol its own destiny. So it will be critical

that the new Secretary of Transportation

vest some of his or her political capital

in AST, perhaps dual-hatting the As-

sociate Administrator for Commercial

Space Transportation as an Assistant

Secretary of Transportation. Ideally, it

will mean restoring AST as a direct re-

port to the Secretary, eventually as its

own modal agency.

The Commerce Secretary’s role in

commercial space is no less critical, but

is much less visible, focused or funded

than Transportation’s. The Office of

Commercial Remote Sensing Regula-

tory Affairs, which oversees space-based

collection of geospatial data under a law

and regulations codified at the tail end

of the Cold War, has about four people

and no permanent director to process

a flood of applications for remote sens-

ing constellations. The Office of Space

Commerce, whose roots go back to the

Reagan administration, has languished

without a director for over eight years.

Yet it has the job of hosting the govern-

ment’s Space-Based Position, Navigation

and Timing National Executive Com-

mittee, as well as promotion of remote

sensing and other issues. Additionally,

there are some heroic individuals that

serve in export promotion and export

control agencies within Commerce.

Both of these offices, though, are bur-

ied within NOAA’s National Environ-

mental Satellite, Data, and Information

Service. That’s right, the organizations

responsible for promoting and regulating

commercial remote sensing are beholden

to the organization that buys and oper-

ates its own environmental satellites and

gives away the data.

Fortunately, in its last budget pro-

posal the Obama administration finally

increased the funding for both of these

offices … to a whopping $2 million each.

So once an omnibus appropriation is

passed next spring, the new Secretary

of Commerce will be able to combine

them together, and move them up to

at least the office of the Undersecre-

tary for Oceans and Atmosphere, and

charter them with leading an aggres-

sive department-wide space business

promotion agenda.

The Trump administration should

model its organization of space policy

on lessons from the Reagan and first

Bush administrations. Commerce and

Transportation need to play a revitalized

role, as they did in the 1980s and 1990s,

in influencing space launch, human

spaceflight, and remote sensing poli-

cies — sometimes over the objections

of NASA or the Department of Defense.

And restoring the National Space Council,

which Vice President-elect Mike Pence

committed to when he spoke at a space

coast rally in Floriday a few weeks ago,

will help harness all U.S. space agencies

(and their investments), large and small,

to pursue our national space agenda.

JIM MUNCY IS A FORMER CONGRESSIONAL

STAFFER AND PRINCIPAL OF POLISPACE, AN

ALEXANDRIA, VIRGINIA-BASED SPACE-POLICY

CONSULTANCY.

America’s national security reliance on commercial space communications,

overhead imagery, and launch services … are all dependent on three tiny offices

inside Commerce and Transportation, plus the Satellite Division of the International Bureau of the FCC.

24 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

FIRST PERSON Lori Garver

Throughout the 2016 campaign,

I told people I didn’t think the

election outcome would make

a huge difference for NASA. I

knew the people involved on both sides

and we had similar views on several ma-

jor aspects of what needs to be done to

advance the exploration and develop-

ment of space.

Every government agency and estab-

lished pool of contractors believes their

agency is on the right path and shouldn’t

have to change, but that is not what new

leadership is about. Even if you believe

Hillary Clinton’s team would have come

in without a change mandate, the oppo-

site is likely true for Donald Trump, who

campaigned on change. Trump’s NASA

transition team is likely being given sim-

ilar direction to what we were given in

2008 – learn everything you can about

what is going on in the agency and how

we can make improvements.

A lot has been made of how little

Trump and Clinton said about space on

the campaign trail — and the Trump tran-

sition team’s late start setting up shop at

NASA Headquarters. Don’t mistake any

of this for a lack of an intention or ap-

petite to address NASA and space issues

in the four years ahead.

The cherished refrain that “space is

not partisan” is going to be put to the

test in the Trump administration. Dem-

ocrats and Republicans have traditionally

found common cause when it comes to

civil space, forging bipartisan alliances

to protect jobs in their districts (which

is why I’ve often said space is more pa-

rochial than partisan). Over the past few

years, however, partisanship has been

creeping into congressional funding

decisions for NASA and the broader U.S.

Why this Democrat is giving Trump a chance on space (if not much else)

space program. This Capitol Hill combo

of partisanship and parochialism has

severely undermined NASA’s ability to

advance meaningful and sustainable

science and technology objectives. The

Trump administration, with Republican

majorities in both the House and Senate,

is likely to ratchet up partisanship. But it

also has the opportunity to limit the neg-

ative effects of parochialism.

Presidents are, by design, less paro-

chial than Congress. They don’t represent

a particular congressional district and are

driven to advance ideas and budgets that

are, at least in theory, good for America

— at least those parts of America likely

to re-elect them. President Obama’s first

NASA budget request was focused on ad-

vancing the long-term objectives of the

agency over parochial interests. Even

thought it would be politically difficult,

he proposed canceling Constellation in

order to advance a more sustainable and

beneficial future for space.

Congressional attacks on Obama’s

initial budget request were both partisan

and parochial – but primarily parochial.

Although not unexpected, these attacks

came just as the Obama administration

was focused on holding 60 votes in the

Senate for health care and other high-

er-priority issues. As an astronaut and

self-proclaimed Washington outsider,

NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden’s per-

ceived lack of enthusiasm for the White

House agenda fueled the opposition. With-

out a champion at NASA or White House

willingness to take on these special inter-

ests, the administration made a Faustian

bargain to secure congressional support

for Earth sciences, technology and com-

mercial crew, in exchange for support of

Constellation’s SLS and Orion programs.

While these parochial interests still

exist, the Republican-controlled Con-

gress, increased political will and influ-

ential leadership could give the Trump

administration the ability to more ef-

fectively advance their agenda in space.

Former House Speaker Newt Ging-

rich is one President-elect Trump’s most

senior advisers. I don’t know what role

Speaker Gingrich will play in the Trump

administration, but his passionate com-

mitment to space settlement is bound to

be part of their space agenda. Former

Congressman Robert Walker and for-

mer National Space Council executive

director Mark Albrecht are also very se-

nior and seasoned on space issues. Even

more importantly, they are like-minded

on several key issues:

• NASA’s bureaucracy and infrastruc-

ture is too large and expensive

• NASA shouldn’t be spending so much

money on Earth science

• The moon is a better and more im-

portant next destination than Mars

• Entrepreneurial space should play a

larger role in all aspects

• Space activities cut across international,

civil, military and commercial arenas

and should be run out of the White

House, by a National Space Council,

reporting to Vice President-elect Mike

Pence.

The Trump administration has the

very real opportunity to move its agenda

forward in Congress. That in itself could

change the trajectory of the agency — at

least some of it for the better.

LORI GARVER LED THE OBAMA

ADMINISTRATION’S NASA TRANSITION TEAM

AND SERVED AS NASA DEPUTY ADMINISTRATOR

FROM 2009 TO 2013.

SPACENEWS.COM | 25

COMMENTARY Michael J. Listner

The surprising election of U.S. Presi-

dent-elect Donald J. Trump touched

off numerous presuppositions about

the future of international diplomacy

and the foreign policy of the United States.

The topic of space policy has not been spared

this uncertainty. While op-eds and speculation

abound about the effect President-elect Trump’s

approach to space policy may have on civil and

commercial space, little has been discussed about

what its future national-security space policy

may look like.

Of course, any glimpse of a policy would be

prognostication based on the President-elect’s

statements and posturing post-election, yet the

potential exists for the incoming administration

to formulate a space policy that will enhance outer

space security.

The Trump administration will approach nation-

al-security space policy based on the worldview of

geopolitics instead of globalism. That is not to say

the U.S. won’t embrace international cooperation

and interaction, but the Trump administration will

put U.S. interests first — instead of giving priority

to the politically favorable optics of international

“cooperation” at the expense of U.S. interests.

The nexus between policy towards the creation

of norms for security in outer space, the security

of space assets and the current body of interna-

tional space law is fundamental. Consequently,

how the Trump administration positions itself in

its National Space Policy and/or National Security

Space Strategy is important since both the docu-

ments will communicate U.S. positions to allies and

geopolitical adversaries alike. Opening with the

National Space Policy, the Trump administration

can learn from both President George W. Bush’s

2006 policy and President Barack Obama’s 2010

policy. Consider the stance these two policies take

on the issue of the creation of norms.

How a Trump space policy could transform outer space security

First, Bush’s 2006 National Space Policy:

The United States considers space capabilities — including the ground and space segments and supporting links — vital to its national inter-ests. Consistent with this policy, the United States will: preserve its rights, capabilities, and freedom of action in space; dissuade or deter others from either impeding those rights or developing capabilities intended to do so; take those actions necessary to protect its space ca-pabilities; respond to interference; and deny, if necessary, adversaries the use of space capabilities hostile to U.S. national interests.

The United States will oppose the development of new legal regimes or other restrictions that seek to prohibit or limit U.S. access to or use of space. Proposed arms control agreements or restrictions must not impair the rights of the United States to conduct research, devel-opment, testing, and operations or other activities in space for U.S. national interests.

The Bush administration chose an nationalist

posture and drew a red line where the United

States would deter, and if necessary, deny the use

of space by adversaries. This elicited geopolitical

and soft-power outrage, not only from China

and Russia but also from the lesser developed

and non-spacefaring nations. The soft-power

indignation was compounded with the 2006

National Space Policy closing the door to any

26 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

that emphasizes deterrence, but also opens the

door for the creation of norms and dialogue with

the international community. Consider this po-

tential policy stance:

The use of and access to outer space is critical to the national and eco-nomic security of the United States and its allies. The U.S. will deter a potential adversary — and any non-governmental entities under the adversary’s jurisdiction — from interfering with that access. The United States will pursue a bottom-up approach to norms that encourage responsible actions and the peaceful use of outer space. The United States will consider legally binding and non-legally binding bilateral agreements and multilateral agreements if they are equitable, effectively verifiable, and do not harm the national security and economic activities of United States and its allies, or inhibit U.S. and allied use of outer space. The United States recognizes tech-nologies used for outer space ac-tivities are dual-use in nature and will henceforth reject international norms and measures, legally bind-ing or otherwise, that are designed to limit technologies as opposed to how those technologies are utilized by state actors.

This posture towards outer space security would

allow the Trump administration to strike a geopolit-

ical tone towards outer space policy, reestablish the

concept of deterrence for outer space assets, take

leadership in the creation of norms for outer space

activities and close off the arms-control approach

and the subsequent soft-power influence enjoyed

by China and Russia. Supplementing this approach,

the Trump administration could further enunciate

in its National Space Policy, or its own version of

the National Security Space Strategy, a U.S. focus

international legal accord that was designed to

limit U.S. access to or use of outer space and arms

control measures that would impair U.S. national

security activities without offering another avenue

of negotiation.

The Obama administration’s 2010 policy swung

the pendulum from the Bush administration’s

nationalist posture to a globalist approach by

eliminating the National Security Space Strategy

found in the 2006 policy and creating a passive

approach to space security by centering on

international cooperation. This approach to a

“cooperative” environment to create space secu-

rity culminates with the use of transparency and

confidence-building measures (TCBMs) to address

outer space security issues and the willingness to

consider legally binding treaties:

The United States will pursue bilat-eral and multilateral transparency and confidence-building measures to encourage responsible actions in, and the peaceful use of, space.The United States will consider proposals and concepts for arms control measures if they are eq-uitable, effectively verifiable, and enhance the national security of the United States and its allies.

While both policies address their stance on

deterrence (or non-deterrence as the case may

be), each finds itself addressing the concept of

arms control in outer space as opposed to behavior

with the Bush policy specifically rejecting arms

control measures and the Obama policy embracing

arms control through TCBMs and an openness

to legally-binding treaties.

The Trump administration is distinctively primed

with the willingness to change the paradigm of

arms control in the international community as

it relates to outer space and promote an activi-

ty-based policy much in the same way it changed

the archetype of U.S. presidential elections. The

Trump administration could accomplish this by

taking the Bush and Obama space policies as

bookends and promote not only a security stance

SPACENEWS.COM | 27

on deterrence. Consider the “layered-approach”

to “deterrence” in the unclassified summary of

Obama’s 2011 National Security Space Strategy:

We will support diplomatic efforts to promote norms of responsible behavior in space; pursue interna-tional partnerships that encourage potential adversary restraint; im-prove our ability to attribute attacks; strengthen the resilience of our architectures to deny the benefits of an attack; and retain the right to respond, should deterrence fail.

This passive approach to deterrence, which

relies on unrealistic and otherwise ideological

assumptions about potential adversaries, could

be supplanted by the Trump administration with

an approach that relies on a form of existential

deterrence but also provides for open dialogue

between state actors. A potential policy statement

might read as follows:

The United States will assert its right to self-defense as permitted by international law in the event any of its space assets or space activities, including those of a non-governmental entity under the jurisdiction of the United States, are interfered with by a state actor or a non-governmental entity under its jurisdiction. The United States will monitor its space assets and space activities and respond with appropriate force if it determines a state actor, or a non-governmental entity under its jurisdiction, is in-terfering with U.S. space assets or space activities, including those of a non-governmental entity under U.S. jurisdiction. To ensure a state actor, or a non-governmental en-tity under its jurisdiction, does not unintentionally interfere with outer space assets or outer space activities

and those of a non-governmental entity under U.S. jurisdiction, and thus trigger a response, the United States will open bilateral dialogue with space-faring nations to facilitate accord and communication with regards to norms and behavior as it relates to outer space activities and interaction with space objects under their respective jurisdiction.

The combination of the threat of force first

followed by diplomacy is the antithesis of the

“layered approach, ” which is passive “deterrence.”

The layered approach depends on scattering a

multitude of resilient-but-less-capable space

assets and the hope an adversary’s willingness

to test the United States’ resolve won’t outlast

those assets — or will otherwise be discouraged

by diplomacy.

Reinstating a policy of active deterrence and

opening a diplomatic dialogue from a position of

strength would reinforce the United States’ resolve

and enable a channel to potentially prevent unin-

tentional or even willful interference with space

assets and space activities under its jurisdiction.

This would result in effective space security for

all state actors. In essence, the potential exists for

a Trump administration national-security space

policy to throw down the gauntlet and then build

on diplomacy.

As with all policy positions of the soon-to-be

Trump administration, the policy position for

national security for space activities is speculative.

However, the president-elect’s posture of ‘America

first’ — combined with his experience and skills

as an international businessman — provides a

glimpse how his administration might approach

the thorny issue of outer space security and pro-

vide an effective solution that has eluded prior

policies thus far.

MICHAEL J. LISTNER IS AN ATTORNEY AND THE FOUNDER

AND PRINCIPAL OF SPACE LAW AND POLICY SOLUTIONS, A

THINK-TANK AND CONSULTING FIRM. HE IS ALSO EDITOR

OF THE PRÉCIS, A SUBSCRIPTION SPACE LAW AND POLICY

NEWSLETTER.

28 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

China’s move to cis-lunar space

Since China launched its Shenzhou-11 manned crewed spacecraft to dock

with the Tiangong-2 space lab, spec-

ulation about where China’s space

program is heading has only grown.

Various Chinese officials have been quoted

suggesting Beijing may pursue human mis-

sions to the moon and Mars. Those efforts

were given a boost witht the successful, long-

awaited Nov. 3 test launch of Long March 5,

China’s new heavy-launch vehicle.

Meanwhile, the Chinese are proceeding

with their efforts at lunar exploration. At pres-

ent, it is expected that the Chang’e-4 mis-

sion will be launched in 2018. This will entail

landing a rover on the far side of the moon

to take samples. While the side of the moon

permanently facing away from Earth has

been photographed, no one has ever landed

there. This will be a major first in terms of lu-

nar exploration.

In the course of undertaking this mission,

China will also be deploying a relay satellite,

necessary in order to communicate with the

lander. Reports indicate that this is currently

expected to be a communications satellite de-

ployed to the L2 Lagrangian point, a spot far-

thest from Earth on a line connecting the sun

and Earth. China had previously routed the

Chang’e-2 lunar probe through the L2 point.

The deployment of a relay satellite to L2 will

mark the first deployment of a communica-

tions or relay satellite to a Lagrangian point.

Other residents of these key points in space

(where the overlapping gravitational fields of

the Earth, moon, and sun allow a satellite to

maintain a fairly stable position) are largely

scientific satellites such as the Solar and He-

liospheric Observatory and the European

Space Agency’s Gaia satellite.

Such a development is a major feat, and

demonstrates the ability of the Chinese space

community to innovate.

At the same time, however, it also should

serve as a caution. China is demonstrating

that the most valuable real estate in space is

no longer limited to the geostationary belt.

Instead, Beijing is indicating that it intends

to establish a foothold for its space systems

at the Lagrangian points and elsewhere in

cis-lunar space, the region between the geo-

stationary belt and the moon. As important, it

will be deploying not only scientific payloads,

but more-immediately useful systems as well.

Such efforts have strategic implications.

CIS-LUNAR STOMPING GROUNDSLike satellites in geostationary orbit, sys-

tems placed at the Lagrangian points can have

extended lifespans, as they do not expend fuel

in order to remain in position. Thus, Chinese

satellites deployed there can function so long

as they have power — and China is also work-

ing on servicing satellites that will allow the

refueling and repair of systems.

Even more important, however, the open-

ing of cis-lunar space will expand signifi-

cantly the volume of space that will have to be

China is demonstrating that the most valuable real estate in space is no longer limited to the geostationary belt.

COMMENTARY Dean Cheng

SPACENEWS.COM | 29

monitored and observed. It may be possible

to “lose” satellites and other systems deployed

beyond geostationary orbit, especially if they

maintain a low profile (e.g., minimal output).

Conversely, objects coming from cis-lu-

nar space will also be less likely to be detected.

Thus far, the focus of avoiding conjunc-

tion events has been on tracking debris and

satellites from geostationary orbit inwards.

However, a payload coming from beyond

geostationary would, again, have a substan-

tial volume of space within which to operate

— and may come from different angles than

commonly presumed.

The cis-lunar region might therefore offer

a convenient location for not only operating

communications satellites, but in-orbit spares

and reserves, to replace damaged or lost sys-

tems. For key systems such as strategic com-

munications satellites, missile-early-warning

systems and meteorological systems, it may

be useful to deploy additional satellites be-

yond the geosynchronous belt, allowing the

constellations to be more resilient in the event

of conflict.

As important, in the longer run, it might

serve as a useful region to consider deploy-

ing anti-satellite systems. A direct-ascent,

anti-geosynchronous satellite system would

still take several hours to reach its target from

Earth, potentially allowing time for evasion or

even interception. But anti-satellite systems

lying dormant in the region beyond geosyn-

chronous orbit could reach their targets in less

time, or at least be less likely to be detected.

Ironically, the Chinese are expanding their

operations to cis-lunar space at almost the

same time that the United States has publi-

cized its Geosynchronous Space Situational

Awareness Program. GSSAP was intended

to allow the U.S. to characterize satellites in

the geosynchronous region, and has been

characterized as the equivalent of a “neigh-

borhood watch.” China’s ability to exploit

the cis-lunar region may effectively out-

flank that effort.

A combination of efforts, including direct

ascent, co-orbital, and cis-lunar systems, as

well as cyber and other soft-kill measures,

could prove highly effective at establishing

what Chinese strategists term the “space dom-

inance” necessary for fighting and winning

“local wars under informationized conditions.”

It would behoove American analysts to

carefully observe the activities of China’s

newest military service, the People’s Libera-

tion Army Strategic Support Force, which is

assuming control of space, network, and elec-

tronic warfare efforts. This new service will

be looking for synergies among these various

elements in establishing “information domi-

nance,” a longstanding focus for the People’s

Liberation Army, and considered a keystone

for winning future conflicts.

DEAN CHENG IS A SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW IN

THE ASIAN STUDIES CENTER AT THE HERITAGE

FOUNDATION.

30 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

BOTTOM LINE Peter B. de Selding

But when it comes to offering global

satellite internet connectivity with hun-

dreds, even thousands, of satellites, those

with long memories could ask: Haven’t

we seen this film before?

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission

(FCC), having received the OneWeb application

to launch 700-plus satellites into low Earth orbit,

asked other companies proposing global internet

constellations to declare themselves by Nov. 15.

And did they ever! Eleven different propos-

als covering a multitude of orbits — LEO, HEO,

GEO with special sauce, polar, inclined, equa-

torial — made applications in an extraordinary

show of enthusiasm for the satellite communi-

cations business.

Filing a proposal to the FCC is only a first step.

The agency’s receipt of the filing does not con-

stitute approval. Anyone with a lawyer and an

engineer can make a filing.

The trick is to find out which of them have

solid enough financial backing or superior fre-

quency-reservation rights at the International

Telecommunication Union, the U.N. organiza-

tion that allocates orbital slots and frequencies.

Here are the companies whose proposals made

it by the FCC deadline: Audacy, Boeing, Karousel,

Kepler Communications, LeoSat, O3b, Space Nor-

way, SpaceX, Telesat, Theia Holdings and ViaSat.

A couple of them make reference to their back-

ers, but most do not, and none includes specific

capital cost estimates.

At least one — SpaceX, whose 4,425 satellites is

the biggest of the bunch — has asked the FCC to

Enough satellites to darken the skies

waive its requirement that systems be launched

and in service within six years of receiving a li-

cense. SpaceX says initial service using 800 sat-

ellites could be fielded in that period, but that it’s

not realistic to expect them to build and place

into service 4,425 satellites just 72 months after

receiving a license.

Phased array antennas are everywhere in

these filings, both on board the satellites and on

the ground, and optical inter-satellite links are

also numerous. It will be interesting to see what

these companies assume as the size and weight

of these laser communications terminals and

how that affects the per-launch satellite mass.

Those who really miss the days of Teledesic,

Celestri, ICO and SkyBridge of the late 1990s will

be glad to know that with these new systems and

OneWeb’s, equivalent power-flux density metrics

are again at center stage.

The ITU has set rules preventing new constel-

lations to interfere with established ground and

satellite systems operating in the same frequen-

cies. OneWeb, for example, has said it will basi-

cally switch off power as its satellites cross the

equator so as not to disturb transmissions from

geostationary-orbit satellites directly above and

using Ku-band frequencies.

Expect a fresh round of filings to the FCC by

telecommunications network operators claim-

ing that one or more of the proposed constel-

lations poses a clear risk to established services.

The ITU, for its part, has said repeatedly that

its rules prevent frequency interference and sys-

tems like OneWeb should be allowed to proceed.

How many systems could be licensed? That’s dif-

ficult to know given the variety of orbits and ser-

vices that are contained in these filings.

A final point: Many of the proposals take pains

to assure the FCC that they will do what’s needed

to prevent collisions in orbit and to deorbit their

satellites at the end of their service lives. This is

not an easy commitment for a satellite operator

to make if its satellites are being retired after only

five years or so.

Nonetheless, at a time when many otherwise

good-citizen fleet operators do not respect interna-

tional guidelines about orbital debris, the satellite

world will be watching to see if the FCC is willing

to force these new systems into compliance.

A LONG LINE OUTSIDE THE CINEMA

IS A SIGN OF A POPULAR FILM…

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SPACENEWS.COM | 31

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32 | SPACENEWS 11.21.16

FOUST FORWARD Jeff Foust

Policy statements issued by the Trump

campaign ahead of the election pro-

vided only broad outlines of what a

Trump space policy might look like.

The post-election transition has shed little light

beyond speculation of who the next NASA ad-

ministrator could be.

Regardless of who takes over NASA, he or she

(perhaps in coordination with a reconstituted Na-

tional Space Council) will face some key issues

early in the next administration. What decisions

they make will shape civil space policy for at least

the next four years, and perhaps much longer.

Whither ARM?Perhaps the least-loved element of NASA’s “Jour-

ney to Mars” plan is its Asteroid Redirect Mission.

Since its introduction in 2013, it’s faced skepticism

from scientists and criticism from Congress about

its effectiveness in supporting long-term plans for

human missions to Mars. A House version of a 2017

spending bill for NASA withholds funding for ARM.

Even before the election, many speculated that

the next administration might cancel ARM, per-

haps to put more emphasis on lunar missions. The

Trump campaign’s space policy was silent on this

topic, but it could be an early test for the new ad-

ministration: NASA is set to award a contract for

the bus for the ARM robotic spacecraft in March.

Earth science in the balanceOne thing that was clear in the campaign’s space

policy was a desire to shift NASA’s emphasis from

Earth science to exploration. That’s a position that’s

shared by many Republicans in Congress who’ve

Key NASA issues for Trump’s administration

criticized NASA for asking for increased Earth sci-

ence funding and suggested other agencies were

better suited to do that work.

Any effort to reduce NASA Earth science fund-

ing will face obstacles, though, particularly in the

Senate, where past efforts to cut Earth science

have failed. Should the Trump team go through

with such a move, it might not free any money

for exploration: even the campaign’s policy ad-

viser, Robert Walker, acknowledged there would

need to be “budget adjustments” if Earth science

work moved to an agency like NOAA.

SLS and OrionCritics of NASA’s two flagship exploration pro-

grams, Orion and the Space Launch System, note

the campaign’s policy made no mention of either.

That’s read as a sign the Trump administration might

be open to revamping or even canceling them.

In the near term, at least, that seems unlikely.

Members of the president’s own party in partic-

ular Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), a key appropri-

ator and defender of the SLS, would oppose the

move. A more probable approach may be to let the

programs continue for at least a couple of years,

through the first SLS launch in late 2018, and see

how well they are doing in terms of budget and

schedule before revisiting them.

The future of the ISSAssuming ESA formally approves an extension

at next month’s ministerial meeting, all of the In-

ternational Space Station partners will have finally

endorsed keeping the station going through 2024.

Given it took nearly three years to win a four-year

extension, the new administration may soon have

to start thinking about a further renewal.

That could open the door for greater commer-

cial participation in ISS, especially if any interna-

tional partners decide not to continue past 2024.

NASA is already studying offering one docking port

on the ISS for a commercial module. Another ISS

extension could allow a more gradual transition

to commercial space stations, but also potentially

compete with them as well.

While these may appear to be some of the key

issues for NASA in the next administration, there’s

no guarantee they’ll act on them. After all, conven-

tional wisdom hasn’t done so well this year.

IN THE DAYS SINCE DONALD TRUMP’S ELECTION,

THERE’S BEEN INTENSE SPECULATION ABOUT WHAT A

TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL DO ABOUT SPACE.

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