BahrainBahrainlabour market trendslabour market trends

LMRA Policy DirectorateLMRA Policy Directorate

15 August 200615 August 2006

ContentsContents

Employment Employment – Quarterly employment time seriesQuarterly employment time series– Civilian employment is accelerating, with an expected addition of Civilian employment is accelerating, with an expected addition of

66’200 by end 200666’200 by end 2006

WagesWages– Establishment survey on wage structure and distribution, March Establishment survey on wage structure and distribution, March

20062006– There are significant unexplained differences between Bahraini There are significant unexplained differences between Bahraini

and non-Bahraini wagesand non-Bahraini wages

AnnexAnnex– Review of Bahrain labour market data: Gaps and weaknessesReview of Bahrain labour market data: Gaps and weaknesses– Statistical tablesStatistical tables– Methodological descriptionsMethodological descriptions

Bahrain labour market dataBahrain labour market data

Gaps: Gaps: Lack of dataLack of data

– Labour costLabour cost– ProductivityProductivity– Industrial disputes Industrial disputes Weaknesses: Weaknesses: Data not comprehensive or regularData not comprehensive or regular

– EmploymentEmployment– UnemploymentUnemployment– Wages and earningsWages and earnings– Hours of workHours of work– UnderemploymentUnderemployment– Occupational injuries Occupational injuries

Combining data from different sourcesCombining data from different sources

Maximise advantages, Maximise advantages, minimise drawbacks of minimise drawbacks of each sourceeach sourceLimit costLimit costIncrease periodicityIncrease periodicityExpand coverageExpand coverageAdjust to standardsAdjust to standardsObtain disaggregated Obtain disaggregated statisticsstatistics

Surveydata

Administrativedata

Combineddata

Objective:

Labour AccountingLabour Accounting Documenting dataDocumenting data

● GOSIGOSI● PFCPFC● CSBCSB● MoLMoL● MOICMOIC● Labour force surveyLabour force survey● Establishment surveyEstablishment survey● National AccountsNational Accounts● MI Standard codesMI Standard codes

Evaluating data Evaluating data ● EmploymentEmployment

– BahrainiBahraini– Non-BahrainiNon-Bahraini

● UnemploymentUnemployment BahrainiBahraini

● WagesWages BahrainiBahraini Non-BahrainiNon-Bahraini

Benchmarking at specific dateBenchmarking at specific date• Comparing data from different sourcesComparing data from different sources

– Similar conceptsSimilar concepts– Dissimilar but interrelated conceptsDissimilar but interrelated concepts

● Reconciling data Reconciling data – Identifying differencesIdentifying differences– Accounting for differencesAccounting for differences

● Balancing and consolidatingBalancing and consolidating– Adjusting for unaccounted Adjusting for unaccounted

differencesdifferences– Deriving consolidated benchmark Deriving consolidated benchmark

DisaggregatingDisaggregating● Civil, MilitaryCivil, Military● Private, Public SectorPrivate, Public Sector● Male, FemaleMale, Female● Youth, AdultYouth, Adult

Time seriesTime series● QuarterlyQuarterly● 2002 Q1 -2002 Q1 -

Table 1. Civilian employmentComparison of data from different sources:

Nov-Dec 2004

Labour Force Survey1 Administrative Data DiffTotal civilian non-institutional employment 306’000

Total civilian registered employment 305’159 -800-800

Bahraini 117’000 Bahraini 109’520 -7’500-7’500

• Employees 107’400 • GOSI2 66’568 --

• Non employees (Employers, own-account, unpaid family and other workers)

9’600 • PFC3 42’339 --

• CSB, not in PFC4 613 --

Non-Bahraini 189’000 Non-Bahraini 195’639 +6’600+6’600

• Employees 184’400 • GOSI2 181’578 --

•Non employees (Employers, own-account, unpaid family and other workers)

4’600 • PFC3 13’362 --

• CSB, not in PFC4 699 - -

1 Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, pp. 84 and 184.

2 General Organisation for Social Insurance, 28th Annual Report – 2004, Table 4, p. 23.

3 The Pension Fund Commission, Annual Report 2004, Table No. (1) and No. (7), pp. 28, 36.

4 Labour Market Regulatory Authority (LMRA), Market Intelligence Database, 200412. Workers on contract, temporary assignment or below 18 years of age.

Table 2a. Total Bahraini employmentReconciliation of data from different sources:

Nov-Dec 2004Civilian non-institutional employmentCivilian non-institutional employment 117’000117’000 Civilian registered employmentCivilian registered employment 109’520109’520

Institutional employment Institutional employment - Subtractions:Subtractions:

Under reportingUnder reporting - Multiple jobsMultiple jobs22 -1’010

Ghost workersGhost workers11 -1’195

Additions Additions (unregistered workers)(unregistered workers): :

Not insured employeesNot insured employees33 +1’100

Non employeesNon employees44 +8’624

Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 117’000 Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 117’039

1 Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

Table 2b. Total non-Bahraini employmentReconciliation of data from different sources:

Nov-Dec 2004Civilian non-institutional employmentCivilian non-institutional employment 189’000189’000 Civilian registered employmentCivilian registered employment 195’639195’639

Institutional employment Institutional employment - Subtractions:Subtractions:

Under reportingUnder reporting - Multiple jobsMultiple jobs22 -1’693

Free-visa workersFree-visa workers11 48’000

Additions Additions (unregistered workers)(unregistered workers): :

Not insured employeesNot insured employees33 +15’700

Non employeesNon employees44 +4’600

Free-visas, Free-visas, no validno valid work permitswork permits11 +31’000

Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 237’000 Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 245’246

1 Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

Table 3a. Total Bahraini employmentBalancing data from different sources:

Nov-Dec 2004Civilian non-institutional employmentCivilian non-institutional employment 117’000117’000 Civilian registered employmentCivilian registered employment 109’520109’520

Institutional employment Institutional employment - Subtractions:Subtractions:

Under reportingUnder reporting - Multiple jobsMultiple jobs22 -1’010

Ghost workersGhost workers11 -1’195

BalancingBalancing -39

Additions Additions (unregistered workers)(unregistered workers): :

Not insured employeesNot insured employees33 +1’100

Non employeesNon employees44 +8’624

Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 117’000 Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 117’000

1 Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

Table 3b. Total non-Bahraini employmentBalancing data from different sources:

Nov-Dec 2004Civilian non-institutional employmentCivilian non-institutional employment 189’000189’000 Civilian registered employmentCivilian registered employment 195’639195’639

Institutional employment Institutional employment - Subtractions:Subtractions:

Under reportingUnder reporting - Multiple jobsMultiple jobs22 -1’693

Free-visa workersFree-visa workers11 48’000 Additions Additions (unregistered workers)(unregistered workers): :

Not insured employeesNot insured employees33 +15’700

Non employeesNon employees44 +4’600

Free-visas, Free-visas, no validno valid work permitswork permits11 +31’000

BalancingBalancing -8’246

Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 237’000 Total civilian employmentTotal civilian employment 237’000

1 Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2 Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3 Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

Table 4. Consolidated estimate of total employment Table 4. Consolidated estimate of total employment Nov-Dec 2004Nov-Dec 2004

TotalTotal BahrainiBahraini Non-BahrainiNon-Bahraini

TT MM FF TT MM FF TT MM FF

Civilian employmentCivilian employment 354’000354’000 304’80304’8000

49’20049’200 117’00117’0000

82’60082’600 34’4034’4000

237’000237’000 222’100222’100 14’9014’9000

• “ “Public” sector PFC,CSBPublic” sector PFC,CSB 56’90056’900 36’90036’900 20’00020’000 42’90042’900 25’80025’800 17’1017’1000

14’00014’000 11’10011’100 2’9002’900

• “ “Private” sectorPrivate” sector 297’100297’100 267’90267’9000

29’20029’200 74’10074’100 56’80056’800 17’3017’3000

223’000223’000 211’000211’000 12’0012’0000

- Employees GOSI - Employees GOSI adjadj 260’100260’100 233’10233’1000

27’00027’000 64’50064’500 47’90047’900 16’6016’6000

195’600195’600 185’100185’100 10’5010’5000

- Non employees LFS- Non employees LFS 14’20014’200 13’20013’200 1’0001’000 9’6009’600 8’9008’900 700700 4’6004’600 4’3004’300 300300

- Other “Free-visas”- Other “Free-visas” 22’80022’800 21’60021’600 1’2001’200 -- -- -- 22’80022’800 21’60021’600 1’2001’200

Civilian employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Total employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – Military Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)Civilian employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Total employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – Military Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)““Public” = Table 5a (line 2 + line 4)Public” = Table 5a (line 2 + line 4)““Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Civilian Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – “Public” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Civilian Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – “Public” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T)GOSI adj = Table 5a (line 1 – line 5 – line 6 +line 7)GOSI adj = Table 5a (line 1 – line 5 – line 6 +line 7)Non-employees LFS = Table 5a (line 9)Non-employees LFS = Table 5a (line 9)Other “Free-visas” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = “Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – GOSI adj Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Other “Free-visas” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = “Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – GOSI adj Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – – Non-employees LFS Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Non-employees LFS Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Other “Free-visas” Male/Female = proportion of M and F in Employees GOSI adj + Non-employees LFS Other “Free-visas” Male/Female = proportion of M and F in Employees GOSI adj + Non-employees LFS Completion of table by additions. Completion of table by additions.

Table 5a. Particular categories of employed personsTable 5a. Particular categories of employed personsNov-Dec 2004Nov-Dec 2004

TotalTotal BahrainiBahraini Non-BahrainiNon-Bahraini

TT MM FF TT MM FF TT MM FF

11 GOSIGOSI 248’146248’146 221’14221’1466

27’00027’000 66’56866’568 49’25649’256 17’3117’3122

181’578181’578 171’890171’890 9’6889’688

22 PFCPFC 55’60155’601 36’29236’292 19’30919’309 42’33942’339 25’64925’649 16’6916’6900

13’26213’262 10’64310’643 2’6192’619

33 CSBCSB 38’51538’515 22’25422’254 16’26116’261 34’75034’750 19’62719’627 15’1215’1233

3’7653’765 2’6272’627 1’1381’138

44 CSB, not in PFCCSB, not in PFC 1’3121’312 654654 658658 613613 195195 418418 699699 459459 240240

55 GOSI Multiple jobs GOSI Multiple jobs 2’7052’705 2’5372’537 168168 1’0101’010 885885 127127 1’6931’693 1’6521’652 4141

66 Ghost workersGhost workers 1’1951’195 349349 846846 1’1951’195 349349 846846 -- -- --

77Not in GOSI employees Not in GOSI employees in 1-4 establishmentsin 1-4 establishments

16’80016’800 15’70015’700 1’1001’100 1’1001’100 800800 300300 15’70015’700 14’90014’900 800800

88 GOSI Employers, etc.GOSI Employers, etc. 976976 889889 8787 976976 889889 8787 -- -- --

99 LFS Employers, etc.LFS Employers, etc. 14’20014’200 13’20013’200 1’0001’000 9’6009’600 8’9008’900 700700 4’6004’600 4’3004’300 300300

1010 - Employers- Employers 7’0007’000 6’6006’600 400400 4’5004’500 4’2004’200 300300 2’5002’500 2’4002’400 100100

1111 - Own-account - Own-account 6’0006’000 5’6005’600 400400 4’4004’400 4’1004’100 300300 1‘6001‘600 1’5001’500 100100

1212 - Unpaid & other - Unpaid & other 1’2001’200 1’0001’000 200200 700700 600600 100100 500500 400400 100100

1313LFS-GOSI Not insured LFS-GOSI Not insured employers, etc. employers, etc.

13’20013’200 12’30012’300 900900 8’6008’600 8’0008’000 600600 4’6004’600 4’3004’300 300300

Table 5c. Free-visa and assimilated workersTable 5c. Free-visa and assimilated workers2004-20052004-2005

TotalTotal 48’00048’000 Basis of estimationBasis of estimation

11 Workers not with legal sponsorWorkers not with legal sponsor 13’00013’000 Labour inspection 2005Labour inspection 2005

22 Workers employed above quota Workers employed above quota 1’0001’000 Labour inspection 2005Labour inspection 2005

33 Workers employed in other than approved jobWorkers employed in other than approved job 500500 Labour inspection 2005Labour inspection 2005

44 Workers employed on ghost companyWorkers employed on ghost company 500500 Labour inspection 2005Labour inspection 2005

55 Housemaids employed as workersHousemaids employed as workers --

66 Run-away workersRun-away workers 1’5001’500 Labour inspection 2004Labour inspection 2004

77 Run-away housemaidsRun-away housemaids 500500 Labour inspection 2004Labour inspection 2004

88 Housewives turned housemaids or workers Housewives turned housemaids or workers (except local transfers to nursing and education jobs)(except local transfers to nursing and education jobs) 31’00031’000 Bahrain Tribune Bahrain Tribune

Wednesday, July 12, 2006Wednesday, July 12, 2006

99 Workers with expired work permitsWorkers with expired work permits

1010 Workers without work permitsWorkers without work permits

Table 6. Estimation of employment 2004 Q3Table 6. Estimation of employment 2004 Q3Ratio estimationRatio estimation

TotalTotal BahrainiBahraini Non-BahrainiNon-Bahraini

TT MM FF TT MM FF TT MM FF

Civilian employmentCivilian employment ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ

• “ “Public” sector PFC,CSBPublic” sector PFC,CSB xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33

• “ “Private” sectorPrivate” sector ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ

- Employees GOSI - Employees GOSI adjadj xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55 xx55

- Non-employees - Non-employees ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ x6 =ax5 x6=ax5 ΣΣ x6

=bx5 x6=bx5

- Other “Free-visas”- Other “Free-visas” ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ -- - - ΣΣ x7 =cx5 x7=cx5

a = d/(1-d) b = e/(1-e-f) c = f/(1-e-f) a = d/(1-d) b = e/(1-e-f) c = f/(1-e-f)

d = d = Non-employees Bahraini LFSNon-employees Bahraini LFS (Male, Female, Nov-Dev 2004) (Male, Female, Nov-Dev 2004) “ “Private” sector BahrainiPrivate” sector Bahraini

e = e = Non-employees Non-Bahraini LFSNon-employees Non-Bahraini LFS (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) “ “Private” sector Non-BahrainiPrivate” sector Non-Bahraini

f = f = Other “Free-visas” Non-BahrainiOther “Free-visas” Non-Bahraini (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) “ “Private” sector Non-BahrainiPrivate” sector Non-Bahraini

Table 7. Estimation of Bahraini civilian employment 2004 Q3Table 7. Estimation of Bahraini civilian employment 2004 Q3Youth and AdultYouth and Adult

BahrainiBahraini Youth (15-24 yrs old)Youth (15-24 yrs old) Adult (25+ yrs old)Adult (25+ yrs old)

TT MM FF TT MM FF TT MM FF

Civilian employmentCivilian employment xx22 xx22 xx22 ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ

• “ “Public” sector PFC,CSBPublic” sector PFC,CSB xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33 xx33

• “ “Private” sectorPrivate” sector ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ

- Employees GOSI - Employees GOSI adjadj xx33 xx33 xx33 ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ ΣΣ

Employees GOSIEmployees GOSI yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33 yy33

DifferenceDifference x3-y3 x3-y3 x3-y3 ΣΣ a(x3-y3) b(x3-y3) ΣΣ c(x3-y3) d(x3-y3)

- Non-employees - Non-employees xx66 xx66 xx66 ΣΣ ex6 fx6 ΣΣ gx6 hx6

Non-employees Non-employees LFS Nov LFS Nov 20042004

yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66 yy66

a = ya = y33 (Male Youth) / y (Male Youth) / y33(Male Total)(Male Total)

b = yb = y33(Female Youth) / y(Female Youth) / y33(Female Total)(Female Total)

c = 1-ac = 1-a

d = 1-bd = 1-b

e = ye = y66 (Male Youth) / y (Male Youth) / y66(Male Total)(Male Total)

f = yf = y66(Female Youth) / y(Female Youth) / y66(Female Total)(Female Total)

g = 1-eg = 1-e

h = 1-fh = 1-f

Table 2. Quarterly Bahrainisation trends2002-2006

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2002

03

2002

06

2002

09

2002

12

2003

03

2003

06

2003

09

2003

12

2004

03

2004

06

2004

09

2004

12

2005

03

2005

06

2005

09

2005

12

2006

03

Total

Civilian

Private

Public

Table 3. Female civilian employment Bahrainis, 2002-2006

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2002

03

2002

06

2002

09

2002

12

2003

03

2003

06

2003

09

2003

12

2004

03

2004

06

2004

09

2004

12

2005

03

2005

06

2005

09

2005

12

2006

03

Civilian

Private

Public

Table 4. Youth civilian employmentBahrainis, 2002-2006

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

2002

03

2002

06

2002

09

2002

12

2003

03

2003

06

2003

09

2003

12

2004

03

2004

06

2004

09

2004

12

2005

03

2005

06

2005

09

2005

12

2006

03

Civilian

Private

Public

CivilianCivilianCivilian

Table 1. Quarterly employment trends in Bahrain2002-2006

Private

Public0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2002

03

2002

06

2002

09

2002

12

2003

03

2003

06

2003

09

2003

12

2004

03

2004

06

2004

09

2004

12

2005

03

2005

06

2005

09

2005

12

2006

03

Table 5. Annual increase in civilian employment:Table 5. Annual increase in civilian employment:Expected on past trend 2002-2006Expected on past trend 2002-2006

against current trend 2006Q1against current trend 2006Q1

Expected Current

43,000 66,200Bahraini Private 5,400 15,200Bahraini Public 3,000 100Non-Bahraini Private 34,000 50,900Non-Bahraini Public 600 0

Annual increase

Total

Civilian employment

Next stepsNext steps

Employment Employment – Review of dataReview of data

PFC data on non-civilianPFC data on non-civilianGOSI data for 2005 Q3GOSI data for 2005 Q3CSB not in PFC CSB not in PFC Both in GOSI and PFCBoth in GOSI and PFC

– Review of underlying assumptions Review of underlying assumptions – Review of private-public classificationReview of private-public classification– Branch of economic activityBranch of economic activity

Unemployment (HJ) Unemployment (HJ) Wages (FM)Wages (FM)Population (CIO) Population (CIO)