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Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market- Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure Douglas J. Merrey Director of Research, FANRPAN Africa Water Week, Tunis, March 2008

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Page 1: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security

Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to

Large-Scale Water InfrastructureDouglas J. Merrey

Director of Research, FANRPAN

Africa Water Week, Tunis, March 2008

Page 2: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Main Message

Large-scale water investments for agriculture and other purposes are important but take years before they provide benefits

They will therefore not contribute directly to 2015 MDGsIn parallel, policy reforms and modest targeted

public investments to encourage a micro-water management industry and market support system will provide large returns, contribute significantly to reducing poverty in a shorter time frame

And enhance the future benefits of infrastructure when it comes on stream

Page 3: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Outline

1. Briefly, the case for large-scale water infrastructure (Grey and Sadoff)

2. Micro-water management: Evidence showing benefits (treadle pump example)

3. Why have micro-water management technologies not scaled up?

4. Recommendations for the way forward

Page 4: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

1. Water Security: The Case for Infrastructure Investments

“Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development,” David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, Water Policy 2007Excellent article making the case for renewed

investments on water infrastructure, especially in Africa

Briefly present their argument, as it makes the case for the Conference Theme: “Accelerating Water Security for Socio-Economic Development of Africa”

I have some reservations, but for this presentation accept the validity of their argument

Page 5: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

“Water Security” ‘Acceptable’ quantity and quality of water for life

and ecosystems with ‘acceptable’ level of water-related risks

Necessary condition for economic growthWealthy countries ‘harnessed hydrology’—most in

easy conditionsPoor countries faced with “difficult hydrology”

“direct consequence” – Have not achieved water security Some “hampered by hydrology” Some even worse off—”hostage to hydrology”

Bleak prognosis unless huge investments made to achieve “minimum platform” of water security

Some slides from Dr. Grey

Page 6: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Poverty and Hydrology—Grey and Sadoff

Page 7: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Infrastructure gap: Access to electricity

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500 kWh/capita/year minimum consumption for reasonable quality of life

Energy use per person in Africa

United States consumption – 12000kWh/capita/yr

Page 8: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

160746

1,287 1,406

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Water storage per person (m3)Updated from M Solomon

Page 9: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Devastating Impacts of Variable and Uncertain Rainfall

Worsened by Lack of Storage and Inadequate institutional and infrastructural Capacity to Manage

Impacts of Floods and Droughts

Page 10: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Variability - Annual rainfall in Kenya during 1956 – 1982

-10.0

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5.0

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Real GDP grow th (%)

Variability in Rainfall (Meter)

Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

Page 11: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

2. Micro-water management: Evidence showing benefits

Sources of evidence1. IWMI survey—SADC countries of “Micro-

Agricultural Water Management” (Micro-AWM) experiences

2. Case studies treadle pumps: Malawi, Ghana, Mali, Zambia, Kenya, Tanzania

3. Work in Asia (especially India)4. Several studies on drip irrigation kit experiences in

Zimbabwe (counter-factual)5. Work by Sokoine Agriculture University, SWMnet,

IMAWESA project, etc.Although mostly case studies, evidence for

following is compelling

Page 12: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

“Agricultural Water Management” (AWM)

AWM – technologies, practices to capture, store or drain water, lift and transport it, and apply it to crops in the fieldContinuum ‘formal’ irrigation “micro-AWM”

[drip, treadle pumps] capturing and managing water in “rainfed” fields [rainwater harvesting, conservation agriculture]

Use “treadle pump” example here, but argument applies to a large menu of small individualized technologies

Page 13: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Treadle Pumps--Types

ZAMBIA

ZAMBIA

KENYA

S. AFRICA

SWAZI-

LAND

INDIA

Page 14: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Tanks and Drips

Page 15: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Micro-AWM--a “best bet” investment

Low-cost small-scale technologies and practices are promising investments:Relatively low cost per household can benefit more

people/$Rapid impacts: minimal gestation period Individualized—lower transaction costs than communal

or government irrigationLend themselves to being promoted through markets,

and to being targeted, e.g., to women, or poor Not a panacea, but high potential intervention

if done right, in the right circumstances

Page 16: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Treadle Pumps—Malawi Study

Impact study comparing 50 adopters and non-adopters in 2 districts, Malawi (Mangisoni 2006; 2008 forthcoming)Adopters have significantly higher productivity

& incomes, better food security, ability to improve lives; created employment

Non-adopters (using water cans)—poorer, with higher risk of falling deeper into poverty

Consistent with results in other East and West African countries

Page 17: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

• Ghana study from IWMI similar results

• Recent study by FANRPAN in Zambia—significant impacts on poverty (Merrey et al. 2008)

• Kickstart in Tanzania and Kenya report significant contributions to economic growth (www.kickstart.org)

Page 18: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

From Treadle to Motorized Pumps

Irrigating eggplant with motorized pump purchased with profits from treadle pump—Zambia (A. Daka)—a route to prosperity

Page 19: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

If micro-AWM so good, why have they not reached any scale in SSA?

Main problem is restrictive and variable government policies (Merrey & Sally, forthcoming in Water Policy, 2008)Compounded by small national markets in most SSA

countriesMostly NGO-driven; these tend to be supply-driven

limited-time projects, often for relief Often import technology; no local support system for spare

parts, replacement, scaling up Examples show quality manufacturing is possible in SSA but

firms face many impediments

Page 20: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Inconsistent, Unsupportive Policies

No SSA country has a long-term supportive policy framework for encouraging a local market-driven industry (manufacture, sales, after-sales service, etc)

Inconsistent policies: duties on imports; subsidized imports and distribution through MPs under projects

High costs (2-5 X Indian price), no long-term investment

Small national input & output markets, and poor market access for sale of produce

Page 21: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Recommendations: Way Forward

National LevelWith stakeholders, develop consistent long term

supportive policies & designate a lead agencySupport for local R&D, social marketing, low-cost

loansLimited-time “smart” subsidies to kickstart the

industry, focused on small farmersTarget women, households who have labor and land but

need help with capitalUse input vouchers as a way of subsidizing through the

marketsBuild into overall long-term agricultural and water

resources development policies

Page 22: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Recommendations: Way Forward

Regional Economic Communities

As part of moving to freer trade, support development of regional markets for small-scale low-cost technologies for economies of scale

Support exchange of experiences among countries

Page 23: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Recommendations: Way Forward

Development Banks, DonorsActively support policy reformProvide financial support to encourage

development of African industries in micro-AWM technologiesR&D by local (not foreign) private firms, research

institutions“Smart subsidies”Low-cost loans for manufacturers, retailers“Social marketing” to popularize technologies

(Kickstart is a good example)

Page 24: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Emily’s triumph

16 Oct 2003: Awareness!

catching the first rain

Oct-Nov 2003: digging storage to catch

more

19 Jan 2004: “We have buried the hunger”

Page 25: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Final WordSupporting development

of an African market-driven micro-AWM industry can contribute directly to reducing poverty and hunger by 2015 while through synergies, enhancing the returns to large-scale water infrastructure investments.

Let us not miss the opportunity!

Page 26: Balancing Long and Short Term Agricultural Water Security Investments: Promoting Market-Driven Small-Scale Technologies Parallel to Large-Scale Water Infrastructure

Thank you! Visit our website:

Food Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network

www.fanrpan.org