balancing, settlement & trading - snam · de biaggi alessandro motta paolo talarico enzo alferi...
TRANSCRIPT
-
BALANCING, SETTLEMENT & TRADING18th February 2020
-
Balancing, Settlement & Trading
2
SETTLEMENTManager: Ametrano Mario
Bianchi ValeriaConti GiovanniMonti GiancarloNegri GiovanniSerra Davide
COMMERCIAL DISPATCHING & GAS OPERATIONAL PLANNING
Manager: Latini Claudio
TRADING & GAS MARKETSManager: Mapelli Stefano
Conti LucaModica Calogero
Papa SaraPezzimenti Marco
Agneta DomenicoBincoletto RudiCeruti Marco
De Biaggi AlessandroMotta PaoloTalarico Enzo
Alferi SalvatoreArena Cristian
Baiardelli GianlucaCappelli Rebecca
Carbone MarcoCariello AndreaCorcelli DannyFiorillo Daniele
Granvillano GaetanoGuastamacchia Cristian
Indriolo CarmeloLucchetta Jacopo
Marinoni GianpaoloMarsella Giovanni
Molinari AndreaMorrone Riccardo
Nunnari LucaPocchia Maurizio
Rotta StefanoSalvi Mattia
Tedoldi FedericoChiodaroli Giorgio
Cravedi RodolfoMasariè Andrea
-
Balancing, Settlement & Trading
3
Agenda Balancing & Analysis
Ψ Term: focus on Δk
AGS Actions
Settlement: definitive balance & invoicing
Settlement: adjustment session & invoicing
Q & A
Networking Cocktail
-
Balancing, Settlement & Trading
4
Do you have a question? Write it on Slido!
• Go on: https://www.sli.do/• Or download the app SLIDO on your smartphone
Code: #BST
https://www.sli.do/
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Balancing & Analysis1.
-
Performance p1 – Temporal evolution: 2019/20 vs previous TY
6NOTE: data of January 2020 are estimated on the basis of provisional balance
5,0%
3,8%
4,8%
4,1%
3,0%2,6%
3,5% 3,6%
3,0%3,4% 3,6%
2,1%2,6%
3,1%3,5%
2,2%
5,5%
5,0%
4,4%
3,2%
2,8%2,9%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Oct Nov Dec Jan
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20 Neutrality
GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct /Jan average
-
Performance p2 – Temporal evolution: 2019/20 vs previous TY
7
0,7% 0,5%0,9%
1,3%
0,4% 0,7%1,4%
0,4%1,9% 1,2% 1,5%
1,6%
5,4%
2,7%
2,1%2,3%
2,0%
0,9%0,7%
1,3%
3,1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Oct Nov Dec Jan
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20 Neutrality
GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct/Jan average
-
Performance p3 – Temporal evolution: 2019/20 vs previous TY
8
4,9 4,7
6,9 7,1
2,6
3,3
5,7
2,9 3,1 2,9 3,0 2,4
3,3
2,6 3,0
2,4
3,0
5,9
3,62,92,8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20 Neutrality
GY 2016/17 - TY average GY 2017/18 - TY average GY 2018/19 - TY average GY 2019/20 - Oct/Jan average
-
9
Performance – Temporal evolution: Q1-2018/19 vs Q1-previous TY
41
67
11 4
67
43
11 2
58
32 267
56
1530 22
0
20
40
60
80
0 0%-2% 2%-5% >5%
Deviation P2 %
Oct/Jan - TY 1617 Oct/Jan - TY 1718 Oct/Jan - TY 1819 Oct/Jan - TY 1920
26 16 17
64
37 3116
3939 34 30 20
4630 24 23
0
20
40
60
80
0-15 [GWh] 15-31,4 [GWh] 31,4-50 [GWh] >50 [GWh]
Residual Balance [GWh]
Oct/Jan - TY 1617 Oct/Jan - TY 1718 Oct/Jan - TY 1819 Oct/Jan - TY 1920
-
MGAS Short-Term Exchange
10
1,51,8
2,9
1,91,4
0,7 0,91,1
0,8 1,0 1,0 0,71,0
1,81,4
0,7
1,81,4
0,9
1,61,0 0,9 1,2 1,0
0,5
1,52,0 1,9
1,1 1,2
2,01,3 1,4 1,1 0,8
1,3 1,3 1,1
2,5
1,0
0,2
0,3
0,6
1,4
0,8
0,7 0,4
1,11,1
1,3 1,11,3
1,6
1,6
1,1
1,0
2,1
1,7
1,6
1,8
2,22,6
2,7
2,02,4
3,0
3,24,0
2,9
3,8
3,4
3,5 3,2
5,1
4,6 3,6
5,2
4,6
4,6
5,4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
[TW
h]
RdB Users
-
MGAS - MGP Exchange
11
0
2
4
6
8O
ct-1
6
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
[mcm
/d]
MGP+1
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
[mcm
/d] MGP+2
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
[mcm
/d]
MGP+3
-
MGAS - MI vs MGP
12
98%95% 94%
90%
97%95% 94%
90%88%
83%85%
82%84%
88%
83%
79% 78% 76%
72%75%
58%61% 62%
64%
55%
70% 70%67% 67% 68%
71%
62%
69%
60%
54%
60%
56% 56%
65% 64%
1% 4% 5%6%
2% 3% 4%8% 8%
12%10%
13% 12%9%
10%15% 17% 20%
22%22%
34% 30%31% 30%
34%
24%20% 26% 25% 23%
23%
29%
24%
33%
36%31% 38% 37%
24% 29%
2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%1%
4% 3% 1% 3%2%
2% 3%2% 2%
4%
2%5%
3% 3% 5% 2% 4%4% 3%
4% 4%3% 4%
7%3%
2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% 5% 6% 5% 4% 7%3% 5% 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% 5% 3% 4% 5% 4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Prompt market liquidity
MI MGP+1 MGP+2 MGP+3
-
MGAS: MI+MGP liquidity
13
AverageQ1 - 1617: 8,1 mcm/d
AverageQ1 - 1718: 7,8 mcm/d
AverageQ1 - 1819:
14,2 mcm/d
5,1 6,7 10,5 10,2
0
10
20
30
Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17
[mcm
/d]
7,9 10,6 7,4 5,4
0
10
20
30
Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18
[mcm
/d]
8,9 14,2 16,0
17,9
0
10
20
30
Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19
[mcm
/d]
19,7 18,1 21,6 20,2
0
10
20
30
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
[mcm
/d] Average
Q1 - 1920: 19,9 mcm/d
-
MGAS – Long Term Exchange
14
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.0002
01
6-1
0
20
16
-11
20
16
-12
20
17
-01
20
17
-02
20
17
-03
20
17
-04
20
17
-05
20
17
-06
20
17
-07
20
17
-08
20
17
-09
20
17
-10
20
17
-11
20
17
-12
20
18
-01
20
18
-02
20
18
-03
20
18
-04
20
18
-05
20
18
-06
20
18
-07
20
18
-08
20
18
-09
20
18
-10
20
18
-11
20
18
-12
20
19
-01
20
19
-02
20
19
-03
20
19
-04
20
19
-05
20
19
-06
20
19
-07
20
19
-08
20
19
-09
20
19
-10
20
19
-11
20
19
-12
20
20
-01
20
20
-02
20
20
-03
20
20
-04
20
20
-05
20
20
-06
[MWh/g]
Quarterly Monthly BoM
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
20
16
-10
20
16
-11
20
16
-12
20
17
-01
20
17
-02
20
17
-03
20
17
-04
20
17
-05
20
17
-06
20
17
-07
20
17
-08
20
17
-09
20
17
-10
20
17
-11
20
17
-12
20
18
-01
20
18
-02
20
18
-03
20
18
-04
20
18
-05
20
18
-06
20
18
-07
20
18
-08
20
18
-09
20
18
-10
20
18
-11
20
18
-12
20
19
-01
20
19
-02
20
19
-03
20
19
-04
20
19
-05
20
19
-06
20
19
-07
20
19
-08
20
19
-09
20
19
-10
20
19
-11
20
19
-12
20
20
-01
20
20
-02
20
20
-03
20
20
-04
20
20
-05
20
20
-06
[MWh/g]
MI MGP Quarterly Monthly BoM
-
Number of the RdB market interventions
15
AverageQ1 - 1617:
85 %
AverageQ1 - 1718:
59 %
AverageQ1 - 1819:
60 %
21B: 15S: 6
27B: 14S: 13
29B: 21S: 8
28B: 16S: 1210 3 2 3
68%90% 94% 90%
0%
50%
100%
0
10
20
30
17B: 15S: 2
19B: 17S: 2
18B: 9S: 9
18B: 2S: 16
14 11 13 13
55%63% 58% 58%
0%
50%
100%
0
10
20
30
14B: 4S: 10
19B: 13S: 6
24B: 14S: 10
17B: 12S: 5
1711 7 14
45%63%
77%
55%
0%20%40%60%80%100%
0
10
20
30
17B: 12S: 5
15B: 10S: 5
21B: 13S: 8
15B: 9S: 6
14 15 1016
55% 50%68%
48%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
10
20
30
Oct Nov Dec Jan
% days with RdB intervention
AverageQ1 - 1920:
55 %
n° days with RdB intervention n° days without RdB intervention
-
MGAS: RdB trades
16
86,3 88,2 86,2 98,9
37,5 24,0 41,0 39,9
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-1
9
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
[mcm
]
MGAS - RdB total traded
Purchase SRG Sales SRG Purchase TY average Sales TY average
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Average physical flow/STSP traded - buy
Monthly Average
Global Average
78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Average physical flow/STSP traded - sell
Monthly Average
Global Average
-
System reaction - Tarvisio
17
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Short
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
-10
-5
0Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Long
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
[€/M
Wh]
[mcm
/d]
Tarvisio Initial flow
Capacity Tarvisio Initial Flow Spread PSV-CEGH DA
-
System reaction – Gries Pass
18
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Short
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
-10
-5
0Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Long
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
[€/M
Wh]
[mcm
/d]
Gries Pass Initial flow
Capacity Gries Pass Initial Flow Spread PSV-TTF DA
-
System reaction - Storage
19
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Short
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
-10
-5
0Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Long
Tarvisio Passo Gries Storage
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20
[€/M
Wh]
[mcm
/d]
Storage Initial flow
Capacity [-inj; +with] Storage Initial Flow Spread PSV DA-MA Spread PSV DA-MGS
-
System reaction – Temporal evolution: 1920 vs previous TY
20
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Storage - short
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Tarvisio - short
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
0
2
4
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Gries - short
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
-15-10
-50
Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Storage - long
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
-15
-10
-5
0Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Tarvisio - long
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
-15
-10
-5
0Oct Nov Dec Jan
[mcm
]
Gries - long
GY 2016/17 GY 2017/18 GY 2018/19 GY 2019/20
-
European Hub
21
Fonte: ICIS
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
Day Ahead Price
PSV DA TTF DA VTP DA NCG DA
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20
Day Ahead Spread
Spread PSV-TTF DA Spread PSV - VTP DA Spread PSV - NCG DA
-
Pricing – winter 1920 vs previous winter
Fonte: ICIS
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
[€/M
Wh]
PSV Day-Ahead
PSV DA 1718 PSV DA 1819 PSV DA 1920
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
[€/M
Wh]
TTF Day-Ahead
TTF DA 1718 TTF DA 1819 TTF DA 1920
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
[€/M
Wh]
VTP Day-Ahead
VTP DA 1718 VTP DA 1819 VTP DA 1920
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb[€/M
Wh]
NCG Day-Ahead
NCG DA 1718 NCG DA 1819 NCG DA 1920
-
23
Gas Day 23/01/2020 (Thursday)
Gas demand = 357,9 mcm:• Tarvisio: 90,6 mcm
• Gries Pass: 40,0 mcm
• Mazara del Vallo: 42,7 mcm
• Gela: 12,3 mcm
• Cavarzere: 22,7 mcm
• Panigaglia: 1,6 mcm
• Storage: 129,3 mcm
• National productions: 10,7 mcm
Pricing
(€/MWh):
PSV = 13,142
MGS = 12,100
VTP = 11,628
NCG = 11,257
PEG = 10,590
P2 = 2,38 % / P3 = 44,60 GWh
14,000
12,6
12,8
13
13,2
13,4
13,6
13,8
14
14,2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
06
:00
07
:00
08
:00
09
:00
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
00
:00
01
:00
02
:00
MGAS Quantity Quota RdB SAP RdB bids
[mcm
]
[€/M
Wh
]
-6,4-5,5
-8,1
-12,7-11,7
4,5 5,1 3,9 4,0
7,18,9 8,9 8,9
7,0 6,25,0 4,5
-0,2 -0,4 -0,30,5 0,5 0,8
4,2
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6D
SAS
[mcm
]
RdB Exchanged Quantities
Residual Balance
RdB Offered Quantities
Tarvisio:+8,6 mcm
h. 10:00÷12:00
Gries:+ 2,3 mcm
h. 10:00÷12:00
Demand:- 3,4 mcm
h. 05:00÷06D
Tarvisio:+4,5 mcm
h. 15:00÷17:00
Tarvisio:-4,5 mcm
h. 23:00÷00:00
-
24
Gas Day 06/02/2020 (Thursday)
Gas demand = 299,4 mcm:• Tarvisio: 70,6 mcm
• Gries Pass: 36,2 mcm
• Mazara del Vallo: 26,3 mcm
• Gela: 11,3 mcm
• Cavarzere: 22,3 mcm
• Panigaglia: 3,5 mcm
• Storage: 107,6 mcm
• National productions: 10,9 mcm
Pricing
(€/MWh):
PSV = 11,626
MGS = 10,400
VTP = 10,537
NCG = 10,163
PEG = 9,483
P2 = 5,29 % / P3 = 2,78 GWh
10,400
7
8
9
10
11
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
6:0
0
7:0
0
8:0
0
9:0
0
10
:00
11
:00
12
:00
13
:00
14
:00
15
:00
16
:00
17
:00
18
:00
19
:00
20
:00
21
:00
22
:00
23
:00
0:0
0
1:0
0
2:0
0
MGAS Quantity RdB Exchanged Quantities SAP RdB Bids Price
[mcm
]
[€/M
Wh]
27,4 28,6
22,920,6 19,7
13,612,3 13,1
16,018,2 20,7
11,7
-0,6
8,2
1,5 0,5 1,5 1,1-1,6 -1,6 -1,3 -1,3 -1,2 -0,9
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2 3 4 5 6D
SAS
[MSm
c]
RdB Exchanged Quantities
Residual Balance
RdB Offered Quantities
Tarvisio:- 16,9 mcm
h. 16:00÷18:00
Stock:
- 2,7 mcmh. 16:00÷00:00
-
25
SRG activities on the MGS
Link: http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessioni_approvvigionamenti_gas-delibera_312_2016RGas/
Link: http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessione-approvvigionamenti-art-8-TIB/
MGS: Daily market managed by GME for the negotiation of gas in storage(Art. 7 of TIB)
Sales/purchases for balancing (SOP)
Art. 2 TIB
Sales/purchases for neutralityArt. 8 TIB
Sales/purchases for operating gas
Art. 7.1 312/2016/R/gas
• Gap between the measured energy and the programmed energy at the entry and exit points interconnected with the storages (Sop) of the previous gas day
• ΔLP not programmed:∆𝐿𝑃𝑁= 𝑆𝑇
∆𝐿𝑃 − ∆𝐿𝑃
• Gas not accounted:𝐺𝑁𝐶𝑁 = 𝑆𝑇
𝐺𝑁𝐶 + 𝛾𝑔𝑛𝑐𝑃 − 𝐺𝑁𝐶
• Consumption and losses:excess/defect compared to predefined bands
• Sales/purchases for TSO needs different than those specified in TIB
http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessioni_approvvigionamenti_gas-delibera_312_2016RGas/http://www.snam.it/it/trasporto/adempimenti-reporting-autorita/cessione-approvvigionamenti-art-8-TIB/
-
Ψ Term: focus on Δk2.
-
Quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) Ch. 9, par. 3.1.3
Ψ = C + PE + GNC + ΔLPC + ΔSett - IT OBA - SNT
Definition of Ψ
• Definition of gas quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) as the sum of network losses,
own-gas, GNC, linepack variation, delta IO, quantities related to interconnection agreements with
domestic operators and gas storage quantities (SNT)
• The TSO procures the gas quantities for the operation of the system (Ψ) through open and non-
discriminatory procedures
27
-
Amount of gas allocated to the TSO (ΔSett) Ch. 9, par. 3.1.3
ΔSett = REMI[INREMI – (KPREMI,K)]=
REMI[INREMI – K (GREMI,K + GIDREMI,K + MREMI,K – Yprev
REMI,K)]
Definition of ΔSett
• INREMI the daily gas volume measured at the city-gate
• PREMI,K the daily gas volume determined for each Shipper on the base of data communicated from
Acquirente Unico
28
-
Modeling – Input Data
29
▪ Wheater Data• Cities• Cells
▪ Temporal information• Month• Dayof the week and of
the month• National holidays
▪ Geographical data• Latitude and longitude
coordinates• Region and province• Climate Zone and
Climate Area
▪ Measured Data• Measurement report• Wkr forecasts• Telemetered data• Consumption profiles
▪ Free parameters for the modeling of categorical variables
-
Modeling – Input Data – Telemetered geographic coverage
30
Features Cells Model
Percentage of cells covered by remote reading
Percentage of ReMi Not Telemetered ≈3%
-
▪ Training set: from Thermal Year 2013-2014 to Thermal Year 2017-2018.
▪ Model selection: cross-validation based on K-folds cross-validation (K=5 Thermal Years) in order to obtain a solid estimator of performances.
▪ Test set: the model chosen was tested for forecasts of ΔSett of Thermal Year 2018-2019 in order to evaluete the final performance.
▪ The chosen model uses an arithmetic mean (ensable) of forecasts of everyone of 5 models
Modeling – Training and Test Set
31
-
32
Modeling – evaluation KPI
The KPI proposed to evaluate the goodness of the model is the Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
𝑀𝐴𝐸 =σ𝑖𝑛 Δ𝑘
𝑟𝑙𝑧𝑑 − Δ𝑘𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑣
𝑛
n is the number of days in the time interval considered.
-
Term Ψ Purchased/Selled
33
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-250,000
-200,000
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0,000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
°C
Tho
usa
nd
of
MW
h
Ψ Forecast
Consumption Losses GNC ΔLP Δsett GG
-
AGS Auction3.
-
AGS Auction
35
Only BilateralA shipper can only offer quantities of opposite sign to that of Snam Rete Gas (SRG)
TimingTwo auctions per day that end at 1.30 p.m (with publication of results at 2.00 p.m. by GME):- MI-Product: with flow in the Gas Day D- MGP-Product: with flow in the Gas Day D+1
PricesSRG will offer quantities with:- Purchase price = the SAP average of the 7 days preceding the trading day + 30 €/MWh- Sell price = 0 €/MWh
No impact on SAP (System Avarage Price)
Transactions concluded on AGS auctions are excluded from SAP calculation
Autority Resolution 451/2019/R/gas defines the characteristics of the AGS (Auction Gas System):
-
Term Ψ Publication
36
Every day, starting from 12.00p.m. the Ψ Term is published intothe «operational data» availableon Snam website at the followinglink:
https://www.snam.it/en/transportation/operational-data-business/8_network_operational_balancing_data/index.html
https://www.snam.it/en/transportation/operational-data-business/8_network_operational_balancing_data/index.html
-
Term Ψ Publication
37
MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh MSm3 (0,01057275 MWh/Sm3) MWh
INTAKE 164,8 1.741.984,7 163,8 1.732.017,0 165,1 1.745.925,6
Other storages (Edison Stoccaggio, IGS) (4)
-8,3 -87.275,8 -8,5 -89.585,9 0,0 0,0
DEMAND (1)
261,4 2.764.189,9 221,7 2.344.261,6 215,3 2.276.816,5
- Final customers directly interconnected with the Transmission System 110,1 1.163.964,2 80,8 854.612,0 88,9 939.578,5
- Thermoelectric 45,8 483.971,6 N.D. N.D.
- Deliveries to distribution systems and other national TSOs interconnections 146,5 1.549.209,6 141,2 1.492.540,3 126,5 1.337.238,0
- Losses, Fuel consumption and unaccounted for gas 4,8 51.016,2 -0,3 -2.890,7 N.D. N.D.
EXPORT 1,3 14.228,3 0,6 6.295,6 0,7 7.447,2
Provisional/Forecast storage flow from/to(2)
-89,2 -943.492,0 -65,0 -686.984,1 N.D. N.D.
Balancing Users (A1) -88,7 -938.107,0 -65,0 -686.984,1 N.D. N.D.
Transport operator (A2) -0,5 -5.385,0 0,0 0,0 N.D. N.D.
Available storage capacity (2)
Balancing Users (B1) -107,6 -1.137.443,7 -89,0 -940.491,1 -104,4 -1.104.183,6
Transport operator (B2) 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
EXPECTED SYSTEM IMBALANCE (SAS) (6)
11,9 125.438,2 N.D. N.D.
LP D-1 RECOVERY 0,0 0,0
RESIDUAL BALANCE 11,9 125.437,8
Network Line Pack (Lpe/LP
d) 554,9 5.867.271,7 554,9 5.867.271,7
Network Line Pack ex Art.5.2 Del312/2016 566,8 5.992.709,4
Sop 0,5 5.385,0
Degree-Days weighted mean Italy 18°C 8,5 9,4 10,1
Y provisional/to be supplied (7)
-35,6 -376.192,6 -3,1 -32.592,0 -3,4 -36.144,0
GAS DAY (D-1): 14/02/2020 GAS DAY (D): 15/02/2020 GAS DAY (D+1): 16/02/2020
Provisional Gas Transportation End of day forecast Forecast
- Area GAS DAY (D-1): the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term resulting from
the provisional balance allocation;
- Area GAS DAY (D) the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term that will be
puchased/selled in the AGS auction in the gas day D with flow in the gas D
(MI Product)
- Area GAS DAY (D+1) the data shown is the quantity of Ψ Term that will be
puchased/selled in the AGS auction in the gas day D with flow in the gas D+1
(MGP Product)
(+ SRG buys/- SRG sells)
-
Term Ψ impacts on SAS (previsional system imbalance)
38
Thursday, 30th JanuaryΨ = -6,7 mcm
Friday, 14th FebruaryΨ = -15,4 mcm
-
AGS Auctions - Prices
39
-150.000
-100.000
-50.000
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
10,0
11,0
12,0
13,0
14,0
15,0
16,0
01/01/2020 16/01/2020 31/01/2020 15/02/2020
MW
h
€/M
Wh
AGS - MGP
AGS MGP - Quantity SAP (MGP+1) AGS MGP
-200.000
-150.000
-100.000
-50.000
-
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
9,0
11,0
13,0
15,0
17,0
01/01/2020 16/01/2020 31/01/2020 15/02/2020
MW
h
€/M
Wh
AGS - MI
AGS MI - Quantity SAP (MI) AGS MI
-
Settlement: definitive balance & invoicing4.
-
41
SII communicates to DSOs, TSOs and UdDs the information
relating to the previous monthly
Gas
communication of
inconsistencies by UdDs
Check performend by
SII and communication
to DSOs
communication of corrections by
DSOs
Confirmation of Data
16th February 2020 Within 1 WD
SettlementDefinitive Balance of January 2020
Within 1 WD Within 2 WD
SNAM makes the gas transportation
balance available to UdBs
Requests for the correction of the
balance
Recalculation and publication the transportation
balance (definitive
transportationbalance)
28th February 2020 Within 2 WD
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Virtual Points Allocation
42NEW Report
Unità di misura: MWh
Versione di Pubblicazione:
Data estrazione report:
Ora Estrazione:
Giorno Gas Misuratore Quota Allocato Attribuito CG Quota Allocato Effettivo CG Quota Allocato Definitivo CF Allocato Definitivo Totale
01/10/2019
02/10/2019
03/10/2019
04/10/2019
05/10/2019
06/10/2019
07/10/2019
08/10/2019
09/10/2019
10/10/2019
11/10/2019
12/10/2019
13/10/2019
Allocato Punti Virtuali
UTENTE : Ragione Sociale UdB
PERIODO : Gennaio 2020
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals with UdD detail
43NEW Report
Unità di misura: Data elaborazione
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Ragione Sociale Cliente Tipo Mercato Tipo Trattamento Partita IVA
Prelievo
Attribuito Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr31 PCS1 PCS31
Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) con dettaglio clienti
Utente: Ragione sociale UdB
Periodo: Mese Anno
Prelievo Attribuito: Sm3, PCS: MWh/Sm3
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals with UdB detail
44NEW Report
Unità di misura: Data elaborazione report:
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Descrizione Misuratore
Prelievo Attribuito
Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr31 PCS1 PCS31
Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) per l'Utente: Ragione sociale
dell'utente
Periodo: Gennaio 2019
Prelievo Attribuito: Sm3, PCS: MWh/Sm3
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Attributed Withdrawals per metered frequency
45NEW Report
Unità di Misura:Data di elaborazione report:
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Periodo Tipo Trattamento
Prelievo
Attribuito Mese Prel_Attr1 Prel_Attr2 Prel_Attr30 Prel_Attr31Descrizione Misuratore
Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) aggregati per tipologia di misurazione
utente: Ragione sociale Utente del Bilanciamento
Periodo: Mese AnnoPrelievo Attribuito: Sm3
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption with UdD detail
46UPDATED Report
Unità di misura:
Data elaborazione report:
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Ragione Sociale Cliente Tipo Mercato Tipo Trattamento Partita IVA Consumo Effettivo Mese Consumo_Eff1 Consumo_Eff31 PCS1 PCS31
Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) con dettaglio clienti
Utente: Ragione sociale dell'UdB
Periodo: Mese AnnoConsumo Effettivo: Sm3 , PCS: MWh/Sm3
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption with UdB detail
47UPDATED Report
Unità di misura:
Data elaborazione report:
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Descrizione Misuratore Consumo Effettivo Mese Consumo_Eff1 Consumo_Eff31 PCS1 PCS31
Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) per l'Utente: Ragione sociale
Periodo: mese anno
Consumo Effettivo: ; PCS:
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Actual consumption per metered frequency
48UPDATED Report
Unità di MisuraData di elaborazione report
Area di Prelievo Misuratore Periodo Tipo Trattamento
Consumo
Effettivo Mese Con_ Eff1 Con_ Eff2 Con_ Eff30 Con_ Eff31Descrizione Misuratore
Quantitativi di competenza (Termine C) aggregati per tipologia di misurazione
utente: Ragione sociale Utente del Bilanciamento
Periodo: mese annoConsumio Effettivo:
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Total amounts of Attributed Withdrawals
49NEW Report
Unità di Misura:Data di Elaborazione:Versione Pubblicazione:
Giorno
Quota prelievo
Attribuito City gate
Quota prelievo Attribuito
Clienti Finali Totale Prelievo
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Totale Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) per l'Utente: ragione sociale UdB
Periodo: mese anno
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – Definitive Balance Report
50
UPDATED Report
Denominazione Utente:
Unità di misura:
Versione di Pubblicazione:
Data estrazione report:
Giorno ImmessoImmesso
RigassificatoriStoccaggio Totale Stoccaggio Stogit
Stoccaggio
EdisonStoccaggio Italgas
Quota Stoccaggio
Stogit alla PB-GASSaldo PSV Saldo GME Saldo Locational Saldo G-1 Saldo G+1 Saldo Delta GNL Prelevato
Prelevato da Esportazioni
Prelevato da Reti di Distribuzione
Prelevato da Clienti Finali
Reso In
Natura
SRG
Reso in natura
altri
trasportatori
Disequilibrio
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
TOTALE
13/11/2019
Bilancio Definitivo
GENNAIO 2019Ragione sociale UdB
MWH
2
-
Definitive Allocation Reports – ΔIOUdB Report
51
NEW Report
Unità di Misura: MWhData di Elaborazione: 20/02/2020Versione Pubblicazione: 1
Giorno
Prelievo Attribuito
(P UdB ) Consumo Effettivo (C UdB ) Differenza (ΔIO
UdB )
1 20,000 70,000 -50,000
2 40,000 30,000 10,000
3
4
5
6
7
Periodo: Gennaio 2020
Prelievi Attribuiti (termine P) Consumi Effettivi (termine C) e relativa differenza (ΔIOUdB) per l'Utente:
-
• The application of provisions referred to Article 6.1bis, commae) of Resolution 249/2012/R/gas is suspended until March 1st,2020
• The application of the regulation determines, in the casesprovided for, the termination of the distribution contract andconsequently the activation of the services of last resort fromApril 1st, 2020
• The SDDT activated for UdDs due to the absence of validcorrespondence relationships will be delivered up to the end ofthe month of March 2020
Resolution 9/2020/R/gas
10
-
✓ The economic items of January 20, referred to the Settlement regime, will be regulated in March 20
✓ DSK in continuity with AS IS
D I/O: ✓ the balance of the daily items will be settled on a monthly basis, valued at the average SAP price of the month M
✓ the invoices issued by SRG vs UDB will be in Reverse Charge and expire in 15 days
✓ the invoices issued by UDB vs SRG will be in Reverse Charge and expire in 30 days
✓ the liquidation by SRG vs UDB will be performed after receiving funds from CSEA. No compensation with DSK
SETTLEMENT REGIME – Resolution 72/2018
✓ Extraordinary booking process reserved for city gates
✓ At the end of May, each shipper will be able to request additional transportation capacity according to the terms and conditions as in Chapter 5 of the SRG Network Code (regarding the capacity booking process for the thermal year 19/20)
✓ Overrun capacity penalties on city gates are therefore frozen until the end of May
NEW Booking Process on May 2020 – Resolution 538/2019
News from Balancing Regime – Invoicing processes
-
Settlement: Adjustment session5.
-
Annual adjustment session 2019 (Year 2018) - Tidbits
55
Adjustment Session 2018
Year 2018
# of REMI 2788
A Median 0%
A Average 0,58%
A ABS Average 21,42%
10% A abs 50%
(#of REMI)246
50% A abs 100%
(#of REMI)17
100% abs
(#of REMI)7
-
Annual adjustment session 2019 (Year 2018) - Tidbits
56
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
gen-18 feb-18 mar-18 apr-18 mag-18 giu-18 lug-18 ago-18 set-18 ott-18 nov-18 dic-18
bn
of
Sm3
Monthly Balancing Session Adjustment Session
Percentage Variation -0,72%
-
✓ Liquidation finalized on 23 December 2019, SRG closed 100% of the regular positions
✓ Non-receipt invoices from some the UDBs for the DSK, for which no restitution has been made
2014-2017 MULTI YEAR ADJUSTMENT SESSION
✓ ARERA vs CSEA resolution for DSK and D / IO funds
✓ Relegation vs UDB
✓ Non-receipt of UDB invoices for the DSK
✓ Completed adjustment process for variance fees (Resolution 223/2018)
2018 YEAR ADJUSTMENT SESSION
News from Balancing Regime – Invoicing processes
-
58
Resolution 28/2020/R/gas
• Cases of deviation fees caused by the uncontrolledand unrelated release of natural gas for damage tothe pipeline of the distribution network whichrequired tanker lorries
• The TSO determines the amount of gas escaped ofeach UdB, with detail per UdD
Resolution 554/2019/R/GAS
• Requests for the correction of the balance canbe considered inadmissible if too general,incorrectly detailed or clearly pretentious.
• In any case, if the request cannot otherwise beremedied, it cannot be considered inadmissibleif there are clearly erroneous measurementdata, such as to impact on Dsk, even if the errorin the measurement data was not caused bythe TSO
• TSOs define an operational procedure thatidentifies how to handle requests related toAdjustment Sessions, involved subjects andrelated responsibilities.
Resolution 448/2019/R/gas
• After the execution of the first and secondadjustment sessions, Years from 2013 to 2017,significant number of city gates with divergentDelta IO from the average one found at nationallevel (in fact, 0.004)
• Approval of a program of 4 inspective verifications• Carried out by March 31, 2020
Regulatory framework
Resolutions
-
Thank you for your attention!