bangladesh - compact2025€¦ · bangladesh assessment of food security and nutrition situation....

BangladeshAssessment of Food Security and Nutrition Situation

Akhter AhmedIFPRI Representative in Bangladesh

Roundtable Discussion5 May 2016 | Dhaka

Bangladesh Roundtable Discussion, May 2016

Progress in reducing hunger, but more to be done

• Progress in 4 GHI components:

• Undernourishment fell from 32% to 16% (1990-2015)

– Number of hungry people fell from 36 to 26 million in same period

• Child wasting fell from 18% to 14%(1992-2014)

• Child stunting fell from 63% to 36% (1992-2014)

• Under-five mortality fell from 14% to 4% (1992-2014)

Global Hunger Index Score: Bangladesh

Source: 2015 GHI Report2

5250

39

3127

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GHI 1990 GHI 1995 GHI 2000 GHI 2005 GHI 2015


2015 Global Hunger Index by severity (selected countries): Despite progress, Bangladesh is in the “serious” category

5.17.3 8.6

11.913.5

15.5

27.329.0

33.937.3

41.1

46.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

GHI

scor

e

Low <10 Moderate 10.0 - 19.9 Serious 20.0 - 34.9 Alarming 35.0 - 49.9

Source: 2015 GHI Report 3


Poverty persists despite strong economic growth

• Lower-middle income country with strong GDP growth

– 6.3% average growth from 2005-2015

• Poverty greatly reduced, but 31.5% live below national poverty line (2010)

• Majority of poor live in rural areas, where poverty and hunger are highest

GDP per capita and national poverty headcount rates

Source: BBS; World Bank 4

848

3,171

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Pove

rty

head

coun

t (%

)

GDP

per

cap

ita (P

PP in

tern

atin

oal $

)

GDP per capita

National poverty headcount rate


Crop production and area growth rates

Annual growth rates, last five years (%)

5

Annual growth rates, five years before then (%)

Rice and wheat: From 2010-11 to 2014-15Vegetable and pulses: From 2009-10 to 2013-14

Rice and wheat: From 2005-06 to 2009-10Vegetable and pulses: From 2004-05 to 2008-09

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Various years

-0.3

2.90.6

7.8

0.90.3

9.7

3.4

10.6

2.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15Rice Wheat Vegetable Pulses Potato

Area Production

2.4

-5.0

12.7

-13.5

6.25.77.2

13.8

-11.9

6.5

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15Rice Wheat Vegetable Pulses Maize

Area Production


Agricultural growth has slowed down

• Agricultural growth has declined mainly due to decreased growth in rice production.

• Fish production has increased rapidly, at an average annual growth rate of 5.5% over 5 years from 2007/08 to 2013 (share in ag GDP reached 25% in 2013/14).

• livestock subsector experienced a growth rate of 3%, and share in agricultural GDP was 12% in 2013/14.

Average agricultural growth rates (%)

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, Various years

5.0

2.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005/06 - 2009/10 2010/11 - 2014/15

Perc

ent/

year

Axis Title


Agricultural wages increased sharply• Real Agricultural wages have increased sharply in the recent past.

In June 2008, agricultural laborers could buy 4.5 kg of rice from a day’s wage. Rice wage increased to 9 kg of rice in June 2014.

• Agricultural wage laborers are among the poorest in rural Bangladesh; increase of real wages has boosted their earnings, improved their food security, and helped them escape poverty.

• Rural agricultural labor is no longer abundant, so policies should focus on ways to improve productivity in the wake of rising labor costs.

• Mechanization, accelerating the adoption of modern agricultural technologies for improving crop yields, and improving labor productivity may ease farmers’ burden.

Source: IFPRI-PRSSP research


Selected determinates of nutrition

• Diet diversity: Rice-dominated diets– Average proportion of calories from rice: 70% (2013)

• Water, Sanitation, & Hygiene (WASH): Increased coverage from 1990 to 2015– Safe drinking water: 68% to 87%

– Improved sanitation coverage: 50% to 89%

• Women empowerment is shown to improve nutrition, food security

Source: IFPRI, WHO/UNICEF JMP 2015, FAO 2016, WEF 20158


Stunting prevalence varies by region

Source: WFP 20129

A paradox: stunting is highest in regions of lowest poverty, and vice versa

Child stunting Poverty


Paradox is partly explained by regional difference in women’s empowerment

• Sylhet division: lowest women’s empowerment, second highest income

• Barisal division: highest women’s empowerment, second lowest income

% of women empowered in 2012 by division (measured by WEAI)

Source: IFPRI-PRSSP

10

3028 27

20 20

12 11

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Do empowered Bangladeshi women break poverty and hunger trap?

Using two rounds of Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (BIHS) panel survey data (2011-2015), IFPRI research results show that, an increase in women’s empowerment in agriculture (measured by Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) scores) helps: • people move out of poverty; • increase farmers’ income; • improve household, child, and maternal dietary diversity; and • increase agricultural diversity. Results also show that increased agricultural diversity improves

household dietary diversity.

Source: IFPRI-PRSSP research


Household diet quality improved(using WFP’s Food Consumption Score: 0-112)

Average FCS score

12

Percentage of households with low FCS (<42)

Source: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data

56.4

66.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011/12 Baseline 2015 Midline

Food

cons

umpt

ion

scor

e

23.1

8.3

0

5

10

15

20

25


Perc

ent


Frequency of food groups consumed in past 7 days increased

13

7.0 6.9

1.61.2

1.6

4.8

6.9

2.7

7.0 7.0

2.3 2.12.4

5.5

6.9

3.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Freq

uenc

y of

food

s con

sum

ed in

pas

t 7 d

ays

2011/12 Baseline 2015 MidlineSource: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data


Proportion of people who did not consume the food group in past 7 days

14

0.0 0.4

43.8

52.0

65.2

4.50.8

41.2

0.0 0.0

29.323.0

47.4

2.4 0.2

23.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

% o

f peo

ple

with

out c

onsu

mpt

ion

of fo

od g

roup

in

pas

t 7 d

ays


Source: IFPRI-PRSSP 2011-2015 BIHS data


National frameworks and plans for food security and nutrition

Strategy/Plan Relation to food security, nutritionVision 2021 • Aims to eliminate food deficiency and attain

self-sufficiency in food production• Includes some nutritional targets/goals (e.g.

drinking water, diet diversity)

7th Five Year Plan • Centers on economic growth and poverty reduction

• Food security and nutrition strategies in line with National Food Policy

Strategic Plan for Health, Population, Nutrition Sector Development Programme(2011-2016)

• Sets policy intentions regarding health, population, and nutrition services

• Strategies include coordination of activities across sectors 15


Architecture of nutrition governance in Bangladesh

16Source: Rashid and Manandhar 2013


Selected policy gaps• Examining and improving key policies driving diet

diversity and quality

• Leveraging agriculture for growth, reduced poverty, and better nutrition and health

• Developing a national monitoring and evaluation system to guide policy formation and implementation

• Enhancing multisectoral approach through nutrition mainstreaming in all relevant sectors

17


Selected implementation gaps

• Improving coverage of key nutrition programs (e.g. micronutrient supplementation)

• Improving coordination across sectors, stakeholders, AND levels of government

• Engaging with media and civil society to improve awareness, accountability

18


Selected knowledge gaps

• Building productive and resilient agriculture and food systems– E.g. Adapting to and mitigating the impacts of climate change

• Accelerating progress in nutrition– E.g. Sustaining progress in reducing stunting (3 percentage

points drop from 2013-14)

• Nutrition, health, and social protection– E.g. Addressing short and long-term shocks while boosting

productivity and nutrition

19


In summaryChallenges and opportunities

Strengths• Strong and sustained economic

growth• Government commitment to

evidence-based policymaking• Highly suitable for investment, e.g. in

biofortification interventions

Weaknesses• Unfavorable land tenure

arrangements• Low level of women’s empowerment• Weak access to improved WASH

Opportunities• Momentum from MDGs/SDGs and

commitment from DPs• Strong set of NGOs• Huge potential for rural nonfarm

sector

Threats• Natural disasters and climate change• Population growth/changing

demographics• Rising land constraints

20

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