bangladesh, ghana, india, south africa
TRANSCRIPT
Improving Access, Equity
and Transitions in Education
www.create-rpc.org
Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa
Demand Supply
Meaningful
Equitable
Access
Equity Mobility Transitions
Distribution Poverty Reduction Growth
Profiling Exclusion
Individual
characteristics
and agency
Household
Characteristics
and Agency
School quality,
process and outcomes
District educational
governance
and resourcesCommunity
social, economic,
and political
CREATE Zones of Exclusion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% P
art
icip
ati
ng
Should
Enrol
Unlikely
to Enrol
Zone 3 At Risk
Overage, Low Attenders and Low Achievers
Zone 4
Primary Leavers
Zone 2
Drop Outs from Primary
Schooling
Primary Grades
Zone 1
Never
Enrol
Lower Secondary Grades
Zone 5 Drop Outs
Secure Enrolment, Attendance
and Achievement
Zone 6 At Risk
Zone O
No
Pre-
School
CREATE
Zones of Exclusion
www.create-rpc
Access
No
Access
No
Access
No
Access
At Risk
Zone 0 - children who are excluded from pre-schooling
Zone 1 - children who have never been to school, and are unlikely to attend;
Zone 2 - children who enter primary schooling but who drop out
Zone 3 - children who enter primary but are “at risk” of dropping out because
of irregular attendance, low achievement, repetition, and silent exclusion
Zone 4 – children who fail to make the transition to secondary school grades
Zone 5 children who enter secondary but who drop out
Zone 6 children who enter secondary but are “at risk” of dropping out because
of irregular attendance, low achievement, repetition, and silent exclusion
CREATE Zones of Exclusion
Zone Chart
Bangladesh
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
En
rolm
en
t
Boys
Girls
Zone 1
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 4
Zone 3
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Age/Grade
Population
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
Zone 2
Zone Chart
India
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
En
rolm
en
t
Boys
Girls
Zone 1
Zone 4
Age/Grade
Population
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
Zone 2
Zone 5
Zone 3
Zone 6
Zone Chart
Ghana
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
En
rolm
en
t
Boys
Girls
Zone 1
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 4
Zone 3
Zone 2
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Age/Grade
Population
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
Zone Chart
South Africa
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Boys
Girls
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
Age/Grade
Population
CREATE Model based on NDoE Data
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Expanded visions of access have to capture:
•Sustained attendance
• On-schedule progression at appropriate ages
•Meaningful learning and appropriate attainment levels
•Reasonable access to subsequent levels of education
•More rather than less equity with more distributional and more
differentiated indicators of progress at different levels of analysis
•Supply and demand issues
•Relationships to development strategies
Expanded Visions of Access to Basic Education
Access = At + Age + Ach + x…..y…..z
Attendance and Silent Exclusion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Child
% A
tte
nd
an
ce
fo
r F
ou
r W
eek
s
Silent Exclusion
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Age
Nu
mb
er
Female
Male
Silent
Exclusion
Silent
Exclusion
Age in Grade and Silent Exclusion
Grade 1
Grade 7
Age and Enrolment
Indian States
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
< 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 > 16
Age
En
rolm
en
ts
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
< 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 > 16
Age
En
rolm
en
t
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
< 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 > 16
Age
En
rolm
en
tGrade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
AP
APAPAP
ANDHRA PRADESHMADYHA PRADESH
CHHATTISGARH
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
< 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 > 16
Age
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
UTTAR PRADESH
Enrolment by Grade and Age – India
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Age
En
rolm
en
ts
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Age
En
rolm
en
ts
P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6
P7 P8 S1 S2 S3 S4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Age
En
rolm
en
ts
P1 P2 P3 P4P5 P6 S1 S2S3 S4 S5 S6S7
m
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
5 6 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Age
En
rolm
en
ts
P1 P2 P3 P4
P5 P6 P7 P8
S1 S2 S3 S4
GhanaKenya
Malawi
Mauritius
Enrolment by Grade and Age – Sub-Saharan Africa
Enrolments by Grade Sub-Saharan Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Grade
Gra
de
Sp
ec
ific
GE
R Seychelles
South Africa
Botswana
Mauritius
Namibia
Zimbabwe
Swaziland
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Grade
Gra
de
Sp
ec
ific
GE
R
Togo
S T + PrincipeNigeriaBeninCameroonKenya
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Grade
Gra
de
Sp
ec
ific
GE
R
Uganda
Rwanda
E Guinea
Malawi
Madagascar
Mozambique
U. R Tanzania
Lesotho
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Grade
Gra
de
Sp
ec
ific
GE
RGuinea
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Senegal
Mali
Guinea-Bissau
Burundi
Chad
Burkina Faso
Niger
Enrolment by Year and Grade – Uganda
1985-2005
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
1997 Cohort Track
Enrolment by Year and Grade Tanzania 1970-2005
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
1978 Cohort Track
Enrolment by Year and Grade Ghana
Enrolments by Year and Grade
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
1990 Cohort Track
Achievement and Silent Exclusion
Ex White and Ex African School Perfromance - A Province in South Africa
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1 12 23 34 45 56 67 78 89 100 111 122 133 144 155 166 177 188 199 210 221 232 243 254 265
School Number
Ac
hie
ve
me
nt
Ind
ex
Ex White Schools
Ex African Schools
Silent Exclusion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Performance Indicator
Nu
mb
er
of
Can
did
ate
s
Negative Skew Positive Skew
Normal Distribution
Skewed Achievement Patterns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
Performance Indicator
Stu
den
ts
Grade 1
Grade 2
Grade 3
Overlapping Achievement Across Grades
Enrolments by Grade, Wealth and Gender
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
6+ JSS
Rich/Male
Rich/Female
M iddle/Male
M iddle/Female
Poor /Male
Poor /Female
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Grade
% P
art
icip
ati
on Rich/Male
Rich/Female
Middle/Male
Middle/Female
Poor/Male
Poor/Female
0
0 .2
0 .4
0 .6
0 .8
1
1 .2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
R ich / M a le
R ich / Fe m a le
M id d le /M a le
M id d le /F e m a le
P o or /M a le
P o or /F em a le
0
0 .1
0 .2
0 .3
0 .4
0 .5
0 .6
0 .7
0 .8
0 .9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
9+ J S S
R ich/M ale
R ich /Fem a le
M id d le /M ale
M id d le /F em ale
P oor /M ale
P oor /F em ale
MalawiKenya
Mozambique Ghana
Rich Boys
Poor Girls
Enrolment by Age, Household Income and Sex
India
Enrolments over Time - India by State
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
West Bengal
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Andhra Pradesh
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Bihar
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Uttar Pradesh
GERs and NERs
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
En
rolm
en
t
GER Primary = 99% for Country A
GER Primary = 99% for Country B
Country A
Country B
Size of Age Cohort
by Grade
NER Primary = 92% for Country A
if 25% of Grade 4-6 are overage
NER Primary = 92% for Country B
if 15% of Grade 4-6 are overage
Primary Secondary
Projected Number of 15 Year Olds and Number of Grade VIII and IX
Students
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
22000000
24000000
26000000
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Number of
15 Year Olds
Number of Grade 8
Enrolled 3.7%
Number of Grade 9
Enrolled 4.5%
Number of Grade 9
Enrolled 6.0%
A Supply Side Constraint?
Some Key Messages
Age of entry and in grade – slippage, exclusion, gendered exclusion
Drop out/drop in – transition across thresholds, locus of responsibility
Silent exclusion – learning levels and capabilities
Invisible exclusion – migration, disability, stigmatisation
Multigrade and small schools – size matters
Financing/managing growth at secondary – efficiency and effectiveness
Private and other non state providers - limits to growth
Growth and inequality – differentiation, privatisation, exclusion
Improving targeting – GERs, NERs, completion rates et al
System dynamics – balanced and sustainable growth in participation
Political economy and aid– Art of the Possible, Science of the Probable?
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