bank of utah officer’s meeting utah’s economic forecast james wood bureau of economic and...
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BANK OF UTAHOFFICER’S MEETING
UTAH’S ECONOMIC FORECAST
JAMES WOOD
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH
DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS
UNIVERSITY OF UTAH
February 7, 2006
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CHANGE IN UTAH’S ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Category 2004 2005 2006
Nonag. Employment (% chg.) 2.8% 3.5% 3.3%
Unemp. Rate 5.2% 4.7% 4.5%
Total Wages (% chg.) 6.4% 7.8% 6.8%
Population (% chg.) 1.6% 3.2% 2.9%
Average Annual Pay (% chg.) 3.5% 3.8% 3.4%
Net Migration (000) 18.4 40.6 37.0
New Auto/Truck Sales (000) 101.4 107.6 105.5
Residential Units (000) 24.3 28.0 26.0
Residential Valuation (million) $3,552.6 $4,600.0 $4,620.0
NonRes. Valuation (million) $1,089.9 $1,200.0 $1,400.0
Taxable Retail Sales (billion) $20.4 $22.0 $23.5
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END-OF-YEAR MOMENTUM
November and December employment two highest months of the year – 41,000 and 44,000.
Net in-migration all time record of 41,000. Previous high 30,000 in 1994. Population increase record 78,000.
Third quarter taxable sales rose 13.8%, fastest in 12 yrs.Biggest fourth qtr. ever in homebuilding – 7,000 units.Passenger traffic at airport up 23% in third qtr. – 6 mil. Third qtr. vehicle sales up 21% to 29,800. Highest qtr. ever.Hotel occupancy rises to 73.1%Expectations: homebuilders, estimators, ABC, sheet metal
contractors, mechanical contractors, concrete ass’n.
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UTAH AVERAGE ANNUAL PAY AS PERCENT OF U.S. AVERAGE(Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
% of U.S. Average
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TOP SECTORS IN EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(Average Wage - $30,612)(Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services)
Sector New Jobs in 2005
Total Jobs Avg. Wage
2003
Construction 10,000 85,100 $30,528
Prof & Bus. 8,600 150,700 $34,668
Health 5,000 132,600 $28,224
Retail 3,000 144,500 $22,440
Leisure 2,600 106,200 $12,576
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NET MIGRATION AND NEW RESIDENTIAL UNITS IN UTAH
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Net Migration Total New Residential Units
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Utah = 9.0%
U.S. = 12.5%
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RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS IN UTAH (Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Total Res. Units Apartments
Cycle 1
Cycle 2
Cycle 3
Cycle 4
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Change in Sales Price of Existing Homes in Utah, Metro. Area and Salt Lake County
Data
Source
1980 1990 2000 2005 Average Annual Growth Rate for Period
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2005
1980-2005
Office of Federal Housing Oversight
(Statewide Index)
100.0 117.5 236.9 286.5 1.6% 7.3% 3.9% 4.3%
National Assoc. of Realtors
(Salt Lake MSA)
$65,800 $69,400 $141,500 $181,400 0.9% 7.4% 3.7% 5.1%
Wasatch Front Reg.
MLS
(Salt Lake County)
$67,949 $83,951 $176,479 $224,470 2.1% 7.7% 4.9% 4.9%
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Median Sales Price of Existing Homes(Source: National Association of Realtors)
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Salt Lake MSA Denver MSA U.S.