February 2018

BANKARSKI SEKTORI NA ZAPADNOM BALKANU

European Department

Seminar MMF-a o makroekonomskoj politici za članove parlamenataBeč, Austrija

od 11. do 13. juna 2018. godine

Ruud Vermeulen (Rud Vermjulen)Stalni predstavnik MMF-a na Kosovu

European Department 2

Kontekst

Konvergencija dohodaka i produbljivanje tržišta kreditausporeni.

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Krediti banaka privatnom sektoru

(procenat BDP-a)

UVK

MNE

NMS

WB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Izvori: MMF WEO, IFS, i WDI Svetske banke.

BDP po glavi stanovnika

(PPP, procenat evrozone)

NMS

WB

European Department 3

Kontekst

Strane banke su finansirale kreditnu ekspanziju…

0

10

20

30

40

50

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: BIS, IFS, and IMF staff estimates.

Foreign Bank Funding to Peak

(Percent of GDP)

MKD

MNE

BIH

SRB

ALB

WB

0 5 10 15 20 25

Crisis Asia (1989–97)

Latam (1977–82)

WB (2002–08)

NMS (2001–08)

Leveraging Episodes

(Increase in foreign bank funding, percent of GDP)

European Department 4

Kontekst

…ali to se preokrenulo kada je izbila kriza.

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sources: BIS, IFS, and IMF staff estimates.

Foreign Bank Funding From Peak

(Percent of GDP)

MKD

MNE

BIH

SRB

ALB

WB

0 5 10 15 20

WB (2008–14)

NMS (2008–14)

Crisis Asia (1997–05)

Latam (1982–95)

Deleveraging Episodes

(Drop in foreign bank funding, percent of GDP)

European Department 5

Ovo je dovelo do naglog opadanja kreditnog rasta...

Kontekst

-140 -120 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0

SRB

UVK

BIH

MKD

ALB

MNE

Decline in Real Credit Growth

(2010-11 vs 2007-08, drop in pps SA smoothed1)

1/ Smoothed growth rates measure the growth against

previous 12 months average.

Sources: HAVER, IMF IFS, and IMF staff calculations.

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

UVK SRB MKD BIH MNE ALB

Change in Credit from Trough to 2016

(percentage points of GDP)

Note: Change from 2012 for countries with no trough.

Sources: MFS and IMF staff estimates.

European Department 6

…i povećanja kreditnog jaza u zemljama.

Kontekst

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

NMS MNE SRB BIH KOS WBS ALB MKD

IMF (2015b) 1/

HP 2/

1/ The fundamentals-consistent of private sector credit is

estimated based on its key demand and supply determinants

over 1995–2016 (see IMF, 2015b).

2/ Actual minus HP filter.

Sources: Staff estimates using WEO, IFS, BIS, World Bank WDI

and other data; World Bank FinStats.

Estimated Credit Gaps in 2016

(Actual minus fundamentals-consistent level of

private credit in percent of GDP)

ALB

MKD

MNEBIH

UVK SRB0

50

100

150

200

250

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Cre

dit

h d

ep

th

Log of GDP per Capita in PPP Terms

Others

WBs

GDP per Capita and Credit Depth in 2016

(Bank credit to the private sector, percent of GDP1)

1The sample includes all countries for which data are

available.

Sources: IMF staff estimates using WEO, IFS, BIS, WB WDI.

European Department 7

Kakvi su izgledi za produbljivanje kreditnog tržišta?

• Neadekvatno finansiranje

• Obezvređena sredstva u bilansima stanja

• Nebankarski strukturni faktori

Kontekst

European Department 8

Finansiranje od strane matičnih banaka nije ponovo uspostavljeno…

Neadekvatno finansiranje

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

1Does not include Kosovo. 2016 uses GDP projections.

Sources: BIS, IMF IFS, and IMF staff estimates.

External Bank Claims on Western Balkans1

(Percent of GDP, all sectors)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Reduce

operations

Selectively

reduce

operations

Maintain

the level of

operations

Selectively

expand

operations

Expand

operations

2016H2

2013-15

Source: EIB CESEE Bank Lending Survey.

Banks' Long-Term Strategies in CESEE

(Percent of respondents)

European Department 9

…a region nije privukao mnogo novih učesnika.

Neadekvatno finansiranje

Velike transakcije vezane za vlasništvo nad bankama (2009- 2017)

U okviruEU

saSAD

sa TURNovi

straniučesnici

Ostalo

ALB 1 1 0 0 0

BIH 1 1 0 0 1

MKD 3 0 2 0 0

MNE 0 1 0 0 1

SRB 4 1 1 1 3

UVK 0 0 0 3 0

Izvori: Bankscope, Fitch, i nadležni organi zemalja.

European Department 10

Značajno produbljivanje tržištanije moguće finansirati samo iz depozita .

Neadekvatno finansiranje

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

WB NMS Asia Latam

Change from Peak to Trough

(Percent of GDP)

Resident deposits

Foreign bank funding

Note: Regional weighted average for deposits; aggregate

for foreign funding. Residential deposits not available for

Latin America and Asia. Deposit data in real terms for Latin

America and Asia.

Sources: BIS, IFS, MFS, World Bank, CBK, CBM; and IMF

staff estimates.

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

ALB BIH MNE MKD SRB UVK

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Sources: MFS, IFS, and IMF staff estimates.

Scenario 1: 2026 credit projected by applying 2010–16

average annual deposit growth to 2016 credit level.

Scenario 2: Scenario 1 less potential deleveraging. For

each country, half of the post-crisis decline in foreign

funding to banks is subtracted from 2026 credit level.

Simulated Change in Credit Depth

(Percent of GDP)

European Department 11

Kriza se odrazila na bilanse banaka…

Obezvređena sredstva u bilansima

ALB

BIH

UVK

MKDMNE

SRB

ALB

BIH

UVK

MKD

MNE

SRB

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

RO

E

NPL ratio

pre-crisis max/min

post-crisis max/min

NPLs and ROE before and during crisis

(2006-14, percent)

Sources: Country authorities, FSI, and IMF staff estimates.

ALB

BIH

UVK

MKD

MNE

SRB

ALBBIH

UVK

MKD

MNESRB

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

RO

E

NPL ratio

post-crisis max/min

latest

NPLs and ROE post-crisis

(2010-17, percent)

European Department 12

…koji su i dalje smetnja kreditnom rastu…

Obezvređena sredstva u bilansima

European Department 13

… koju privredni rast sam po sebi neće otkloniti.

Obezvređena sredstva u bilansima

Potreban rast BDP-a da bi se pokazatelji NPL vratili na nivoe iz 2007. 1/(u procentima)

2007. 2016.Ostvaren

(2016)

Potreban

(3 g.) 2/

Potreban

(5 g.) 2/

Albanija 3,4 18,3 3,4 7,1 4,2

Bosna i Hercegovina 3,0 11,8 2,5 4,2 2,5

Kosovo 4,1 4,9 3,6 0,8 0,5

Makedonija 7,5 6,3 2,4 … …

Crna Gora 3,2 11,1 2,4 3,8 2,3

Srbija 8,4 17,0 2,8 4,1 2,5

1/ Uz pretpostavku da ukupan iznos problematičnih kredita neće rasti iznad postojećeg nivoa.

Izvor: procene stručnjaka MMF-a.

Pokazatelj NPL Rast BDP-a

2/ Rast BDP-a koji je potreban da bi se postojeće stanje problematičnih kredita vratilo na

nivoe iz 2007. u periodu od tri (pet) godina.

European Department 14

Nebankarski strukturni faktori

Nebankarski strukturni faktori su takođe smetnja kreditiranju.

• Nedostaci sistema za uknjižbu vlasništva nad zemljištem i katastra

• Nepostojeći/nepotpuni kreditni registri

• Nedovoljan broj zaposlenih u sudovima/veliki brojnerešenih predmeta

• Neadekvatni stečajni režimi

European Department 15

Preporuke za ekonomsku politiku

Potrebno je delovanje u oblasti ekonomske politike:

• Popraviti bilanse stanja:- Pregledi kvaliteta aktive (AQR)- nadgledani akcioni planovi- razvoj tržišta loše aktive- pojačana supervizija

• Proširiti osnove finansiranja:- upravljati mogućim daljim smanjenjem stepena spoljne zaduženosti

(deleveridž)- razviti lokalna tržišta kapitala

• Ukloniti nebankarske prepreke za kreditiranje:- Vlasništvo nad zemljištem i imovinom- Sudski postupci i stari nerešeni predmeti- Okvir kojim se uređuje stečaj

European Department 16

Preporuke za ekonomsku politiku

Izvor: Regionalni ekonomski izgledi, CIJIE, novembar 2017.g.

Popravljanje bilansa stanja iziskuje višestruk pristup …

ALB SRB BIH MNE UVK MKD

Klasifikacija kredita i rezervisanja

Otpisi

Prodaja/Prenos NPL

Zakon o stečaju

Zakon o privatnim izvršiteljima

Oporezivanje

Katastarske informacije

Sprovedena mera politike

Mera čije je sprovođenje u toku

Preporučena mera politike

European Department 17

Ekonomske politike

…usredsređen na smanjenje nivoa NPL.

5

10

15

20

25

30

2008Q

4

2009Q

2

2009Q

4

2010Q

2

2010Q

4

2011Q

2

2011Q

4

2012Q

2

2012Q

4

2013Q

2

2013Q

4

2014Q

2

2014Q

4

2015Q

2

2015Q

4

2016Q

2

2016Q

4

2017Q

2

2017Q

4

2018Q

2

2018Q

4

Albania: NPLs(Percent of total loans)

Sources: Bank of Albania; and IMF staff estimates.

Mandatory

write-offs started to be

implemented

NPLs

Strategy

launched

▪New insolvency law

▪New bailiffs law.

▪Amendments to the

civil procedures and

civil code.

Mostly

write-offs

▪ Increased supervision inspections

▪Two large one off bankruptcies

5

10

15

20

25

2008Q

4

2009Q

2

2009Q

4

2010Q

2

2010Q

4

2011Q

2

2011Q

4

2012Q

2

2012Q

4

2013Q

2

2013Q

4

2014Q

2

2014Q

4

2015Q

2

2015Q

4

2016Q

2

2016Q

4

2017Q

2

2017Q

4

2018Q

2

2018Q

4

Serbia: NPLs(Percent of total loans)

Sources: National Bank of Serbia; and IMF staff estimates.

NPL Strategy launched

Tax deductability

clarifications

New law for real

estate appraisers

Special

Diagnostic

Studies

(AQRs)

Mostly write-offs

European Department 18

Hvala