Please see disclaimer on last page 1

Banking Sector

Staying hopeful

► February 2017 saw net lending increase 0.41% MoM and 1.64% YoY.

Deposits rose 0.79% MoM and 2.74% YoY.

► Keeping fingers crossed for the 2H17 outlook and onward with hypothesis

of economic up-cycle, bolstered by hefty infrastructure investment.

► We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the banking sector as it stands to

benefit from an upturn in the economic cycle, and offers attractive

valuation and decent dividend yield. We recommend BBL (new AWS

17TP: Bt213) and TCAP (AWS 17TP: Bt55), which are both still trading at

cheap PBVs and offer pleasing dividend yields. The former should also

enjoy corporate loan expansion, while the latter is adamant it would

retrieve loan growth.

Marginal lending growth in February

Loans in February look unexciting as MoM growth remained inert. Further, when

comparing to the end of 2016, growth has not yet turned back to positive territory, which

we believe is due to prepayment. Nevertheless, there was a positive signal, as February

lending started to experience lower YTD contraction, in line with our and the industry’s

expectations that credit demand should gradually improve throughout the year.

Better outlook for 2H17 and onward

We remain hopeful on the outlook for 2H17 and onward following a recovering economy.

The key driving forces would be improving overall domestic economic fundamentals,

particularly pushed by the government’s investment in big-ticket infrastructure projects.

We believe this would help strengthen confidence in the private sector, hence potential

higher corporate loan demand. Other positives include ongoing stimulus measures and

recovering exports, which we see boosting credit demand from the SME and retail

segments. We estimate FY17 loan growth at 7.8%, outpacing slow growth of 2.5% in

2016, before accelerating to 11.3% next year. We project FY17 and FY18 earnings

growth at 8.6% and 13.0%, respectively.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT

We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the banking sector based on our assumption of

an economic up-cycle. The sector’s decent dividend yield of 3.8% and currently-traded

PBV, which is still below the long-term average, also make the sector attractive for

investors seeking stocks with undemanding valuations. We recommend BBL (new AWS

17TP: Bt213) and TCAP (AWS 17TP: Bt55), both of which still have cheap PBVs of 0.9x,

attractive dividend yields, and solid asset quality. We like BAY (AWS 17TP: Bt46) on its

robust performance while we suggest KKP (new AWS 17TP: Bt79) as a dividend play.

Thailand Research Department

Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.017923)

Tel: 02 680 5041

Ms. Veeraya Rattanaworatip

(Assistant Analyst)

Please see disclaimer on last page 2

Marginal lending growth in February

February 2017 saw net lending rise 0.41% MoM and 1.64% YoY. Lending turned positive MoM

after slumping 0.71% MoM in January. This led to a lower loan contraction of 0.30% YTD,

compared to a decline of 0.71% YTD in January. In February, most banks experienced positive

MoM loan growth, with the exceptions of CIMBT, TCAP, TISCO, and TMB. KKP posted the

highest MoM loan growth at 1.80%, which we reckon resulted from its strategy to focus more on

non-HP retail loans, corporate, and Lombard loans. On the other hand, TISCO posted the

largest decline following the lackluster auto market.

Figure 1: Banks’ loan growths

Unit: Million Baht Jan-17 Feb-17 MoM YoY YTD

BAY 1,276,671 1,281,994 0.42% 8.44% -1.58%

BBL 1,742,399 1,746,092 0.21% 1.92% -1.75%

CIMBT 191,948 191,422 -0.27% -0.14% -0.91%

KBANK 1,594,477 1,604,484 0.63% 4.93% 0.96%

KKP 167,408 170,421 1.80% 0.39% 1.78%

KTB 1,734,944 1,738,394 0.20% -7.46% 0.24%

LHBANK 137,183 138,372 0.87% 5.66% 0.29%

SCB 1,834,586 1,853,341 1.02% 6.05% 0.15%

TCAP 661,096 660,794 -0.05% -2.99% -0.91%

TISCO 214,583 212,490 -0.98% -6.92% -2.06%

TMB 577,051 576,470 -0.10% 3.41% 1.43%

Total 10,132,346 10,174,274 0.41% 1.64% -0.30%

Source: Company data

Figure 2: Banks’ deposit growths

Unit: Million Baht Jan-17 Feb-17 MoM YoY YTD

BAY 1,089,371 1,113,504 2.22% 7.02% 0.96%

BBL 2,129,271 2,167,977 1.82% 4.38% 2.42%

CIMBT 194,498 175,196 -9.92% 9.68% -4.72%

KBANK 1,811,454 1,829,467 0.99% 6.55% 1.73%

KKP 118,750 121,960 2.70% 18.14% 10.66%

KTB 2,054,844 2,003,252 -2.51% -3.75% 1.42%

LHBANK 151,572 149,231 -1.54% 9.30% 0.09%

SCB 1,955,026 2,012,845 2.96% 6.26% -0.43%

TCAP 658,148 668,403 1.56% -2.47% -1.19%

TISCO 153,634 154,576 0.61% -2.37% -0.32%

TMB 586,247 592,427 1.05% -7.84% -1.10%

Total 10,902,814 10,988,838 0.79% 2.74% 0.92%

Source: Company data

Please see disclaimer on last page 3

Better outlook for 2H17 and onward

We are keeping our fingers crossed for the 2H17 outlook and onward. One of the key catalysts

would be the government’s massive investment in infrastructure projects worth as much as

Bt1.1tn. The state expects 60% of the funds to be from borrowings, implying potentially stronger

loan demand, especially in the corporate segment. Although bank lending has been lackluster

during the first two months of the year, we expect the figure to accelerate in the latter half of the

year, when more and more projects should gradually find winners and start to be rolled out.

Figure 3: 2017 infrastructure action plan

Source: Bangkok Post, AWS

Budget (Btbn)

1.4

Total budget 1.4

Budget (Btbn)

2.4

7.7

31.2

10.2

3.3

104.0

53.5

51.8

25.0

Total budget 289.0

Budget (Btbn)

2.2

21.2

12.1

9.8

123.0

7.6

31.1

56.1

35.8

26.1

23.4

51.8

7.9

59.9

under evaluation

Total budget 468.0

Budget (Btbn)

77.0

60.4

19.0

35.1

14.4

10.5

80.6

1.1

Total budget 298.1

1.0

30.5

8.1

9.4

Total budget 49.0

0.5

23.5

Total budget 24.0

1129.5Grand total budget

Projects ready for operation

1. Integrated ticketing system to link public transport systems

2. Motorway linking Hat Yai and Malaysian border

3. Logistics centre development in nine border provinces

4. Logistics centre development in eight main cities

Transport Ministry's projects

1. Rest areas for trucks in three provinces

2. Mass transit system in Phuket

5. Northern expressway linking Kasetsart intersection and Nawamin Road

6. Special expressway project linking Kathu and Patong in Phuket

7. Nakhon Pathom - Cha-am Motorway

8. Border logistics centre in Nakhon Phanom

Projects with completed feasibility study

1. Ferry ports in the upper Gulf of Thailand

4. Bangkok mass transit: Light Green Line on the Khu Kot - Lam Luk Ka section

Projects ready for proposal to cabinet/PPP Committee

1. Double-track rail: Den Chai - Chiang Rai - Chiang Khong route

2. Double-track rail: Ban Phai - Mukdahan - Nakhon Phanom

3. Bangkok mass transit: Red Line extension linking Taling Chan and Salaya

4. Third phase of Laem Chabang Port development

15. U-tapao Airport upgrade

5. Bangkok mass transit: Orange Line linking Thailand Cultural Centre and Taling Chan

7. Airport Rail Link extension between Don Mueang and Phaya Thai

6. Bangkok mass transit: Dark Red Line linking Rangsit and Thammasat University

8. Double-track rail: Pak Nam Pho - Den Chai

9. Double-track rail: Jira - Ubon Ratchathani

10. Double-track rail: Khon Kaen - Nong Khai

11. Double-track rail: Chumphon - Surat Thani

12. Double-track rail: Surat Thani - Hat Yai

13. Double-track rail: Hat Yai - Padang Besar

14. Double-track rail: Den Chai - Chiang Mai

5. Improvement of baggage carousel system at Suvarnabhumi Airport

Projects ready for bidding

1. 200 electrical buses with charging stations

2. Bangkok mass transit: Blue Line linking Bang Khae and Phutthamonthon Sai 4

3. Bangkok mass transit: Light Green Line on the Samut Prakan - Bang Pu section

6. Bangkok mass transit: Orange Line linking Thailand Cultural Centre and Min Buri

7. Bangkok mass transit: Pink Line linking Khae Rai and Min Buri

8. Bangkok mass transit: Yellow Line linking Lad Prao and Sam Rong

9. Bangkok mass transit: Blue Line extension (System installation)

Projects ready for construction

1. Logistics centre development at Chiang Khong

2. Airport development in four provinces (Tak, Yala, Sakhon Nakhon, and Krabi)

3. Expressway linking Rama III Road - Dao Khanong and Western Outer Ring

4. Double-track rail: Prachuap Khiri Khan

Please see disclaimer on last page 4

Besides the hefty investment in infrastructure, the state is actively launching numerous stimulus

measures and spending. This includes an additional mid-year budget of Bt190bn for fiscal 2017.

This budget is aimed at spurring investment in provincial clusters, as well as boosting local

economic development. Other examples include loans via state-owned banks to assist those

most likely hit by the sluggish economy, such as low-income earners, small-scale farmers, and

SMEs. We believe the ongoing supports from the government would still act as one of the key

mechanisms to strengthen the grassroot economy.

Meanwhile, Thai exports have continued to show signs of recovery as they were able to post

flat growth after experiencing four years of contractions. Although the value of the exports in

February plummeted 2.8% YoY for the first time in four months, this should not cause a concern

as it was mainly due to the high base effect from the shipments of gold and aircraft-related

products last year. The state remains confident the country’s exports would rise through 2017,

which may increase by at least 3%, thanks to the global economic recovery. The improving

exports should simultaneously bolster SMEs, which would in turn benefit banks in terms of

potentially higher credit demand and easing the bad loan situation.

We foresee private consumption gradually improving from last year. One of the factors would

be an increase in farmers’ income as drought conditions should not be as severe as 2016. More

favorable weather should lead to an acceleration in agricultural production, while agricultural

prices continue to rise following greater demand. Apart from that, the expiry of the lock-up period

on the first-car scheme is anticipated to decrease household debt and bolster private

consumption as well. More importantly, this may prompt demand for new cars, which would

benefit HP-driven banks.

Figure 4: Agricultural-related indices

Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board

Growth

Year

Please see disclaimer on last page 5

Given the more favorable economic environment, we forecast loan demand to pick up 7.8%

YoY this year before accelerating to 11.3% in 2018. Although the data from the Bank of Thailand

indicates the trend in NPL formation has not yet stabilized, we estimate the sector’s FY17 NPL

ratio to drop slightly to 3.1%, from 3.2% in 2016. This corresponds with the Finance Ministry’s

expectation that NPLs may at first continue rising from 2016 before beginning to fall later this

year, thanks to broader economic recovery. Further, we project overall provision expense to

level down around 4.7% as most banks already set heavy cushions during the last few years.

Figure 5: Total loans for nine SET-listed banks under our coverage

Source: Company data, AWS estimates

Figure 6: Amount gross NPLs have increased

Source: Bank of Thailand

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16

Btmn

New NPLs Re-entry NPLs Others

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Btmn

+5.8%+2.5%

+7.8%

+11.3%

+4.7%

Please see disclaimer on last page 6

In sum, we forecast total earnings for the nine listed banks to increase 8.6% in 2017 and 13.0%

in 2018. Due to their large single lending limits, big banks are expected to be the major

beneficiaries of corporate loan expansion from the state’s massive infrastructure projects.

Meanwhile, HP-driven banks should continue to enjoy the low interest rate environment as we

predict policy rate to remain unchanged following the state’s efforts to accommodate economic

recovery.

Figure 7: Total net profits for nine SET-listed banks under our coverage

Source: Company data, AWS estimates

Maintain OVERWEIGHT call

We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the banking sector as it should be one of those to enjoy

an upturn in the economic cycle. The sector’s valuation is also appealing as it currently trades

at a PBV of 1.3x, compared to the long-term average of 1.6x. The overall dividend yield of the

sector is quite decent with an expected yield of 3.8% in 2017. Despite the possibility of rising

NPLs, Thailand’s banking industry has a high bad debt cushion and strong capital sufficient to

ride through uncertainty.

We still recommend BBL (new AWS 17TP: Bt213) as it stands to benefit from corporate loan

expansion and is ranked second in our size-adjusted fundamental analysis. We also like BAY

(AWS 17TP: Bt46) as the bank is likely to continue its growth momentum this year given a more

favorable economy. For mid-to-small sized banks, we suggest TCAP (AWS 17TP: Bt55) on its

solid asset quality, cheap PBV of 0.9x, and our expectation of its loan recovery. For a dividend

play, we recommend KKP (new AWS 17TP: Bt79) as it announced a dividend for 2H16 operation

of Bt4.00, giving a half-year yield of 5.8% or 11.5% annualized. The XD date is 28 Apr 2017.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Btmn

+4.0% -7.1% +4.1%

+8.6%

+13.0%

Please see disclaimer on last page 7

Figure 8: Banks’ earnings projection

Source: AWS estimates

Figure 9: Banking sector’s historical PBV band

Source: Bloomberg

Figure 10: Fundamental ranking (Size-adjusted)

Source: AWS estimates

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016 1/2017

PBV

-2.0 S.D. -1.0 S.D. Avg. +1.0 S.D. +2.0 S.D. PBV

Bank Total Overall

scores rank

TISCO 4.4 1

BBL 4.5 2

SCB 4.8 3

KBANK 5.0 4

TCAP 5.3 5

BAY 6.3 6

KKP 6.3 6

KTB 6.6 7

TMB 6.6 7

LHBANK 7.5 8

CIMBT 8.9 9

Bank RatingClose Price

(Bt)

FY17 Target Price

(Bt)

27-Mar-17 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E

BAY BUY 39.00 46.00 2.91 3.36 3.93 15.4% 17.0% 11.6 9.9 1.3 1.2 2.2% 2.2%

BBL BUY 181.50 213.00 16.67 18.53 21.41 11.2% 15.5% 9.8 8.5 0.9 0.8 3.9% 3.9%

KBANK BUY 191.00 217.00 16.79 17.29 19.16 3.0% 10.8% 11.0 10.0 1.3 1.2 2.1% 2.4%

KKP BUY 69.50 79.00 6.55 6.97 7.75 6.4% 11.2% 10.0 9.0 1.4 1.3 5.8% 6.5%

KTB HOLD 20.60 22.00 2.31 2.51 2.83 8.7% 12.8% 8.2 7.3 0.9 0.8 4.9% 5.5%

SCB BUY 161.50 185.00 14.01 15.14 16.86 8.1% 11.4% 10.7 9.6 1.5 1.3 3.7% 3.7%

TCAP BUY 48.25 55.00 5.16 5.53 5.85 7.1% 5.9% 8.7 8.2 0.9 0.9 4.6% 5.0%

TISCO BUY 69.00 77.00 6.25 7.01 7.91 12.1% 12.9% 9.8 8.7 1.6 1.5 4.1% 4.5%

TMB BUY 2.38 2.70 0.19 0.20 0.24 8.1% 18.1% 11.7 9.9 1.2 1.1 2.9% 3.4%

Average 10.2 9.0 Average 1.2 1.1 Average 3.8% 4.1%

EPS (Bt) EPS Growth (%) Forward PER Forward PBV Dividend Yield (%)

Please see disclaimer on last page

8

Score Range Number of Logo Description

90 – 100

80 – 89

70 – 79

60 – 69

50 – 59

Below 50

No logo given

Excellent

Very Good

Good

Satisfactory

Pass

N/A

Corporate Governance Report disclaimer

The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors

Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant

to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed

on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative

Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a

general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of

a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on

inside information.

The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate

Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey

result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company

Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.

Please see disclaimer on last page

9

The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat

Institute, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and

Exchange Commission. Thaipat Institute made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the

form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1) , Annual Report (Form 56-2) , or other

relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a

third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as

of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information.

Nevertheless, AWS does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.

Anti-Corruption Progress Indicator 2016

2S APCO BROOK CSS GFPT JMART LVT NCL PLANB SAUCE SR TICON TVD WIIKA APCS BRR DELTA GIFT JMT M NDR PLAT SC SRICHA TIP TVO WINABC APURE BSBM DNA GLOBAL JTS MAKRO NINE PRANDA SCCC STA TKT TVT XOABICO AQUA BTNC EA GPSC JUBILE MALEE NMG PREB SCN STANLY TLUXE TWPC ZMICOACAP AS CEN ECF GREEN JUTHA MBAX NNCL PRG SEAOIL SUPER TMC UAEC ASIA CGH EE GUNKUL K MC NPP PRINC SE-ED SUSCO TMI UBISAF ASIAN CHARAN EFORL HMPRO KASET MCOT NTV PSTC SENA SYMC TMILL UKEMAGE ASIMAR CHO EPCO HOTPOT KBS MEGA NUSA PYLON SGP SYNEX TMT UNIQAH ASK CHOTI ESTAR ICHI KC MFEC OCC QH SITHAI SYNTEC TPA UOBKHAI BCH CHOW EVER IEC KCAR MIDA OGC RML SKR TAE TPP UREKAAIE BEAUTY CI FC IFS KSL MILL PACE ROBINS SMIT TAKUNI TRT UWCAIRA BFIT CM FER ILINK KTECH MJD PAF ROCK SMK TASCO TRU VGIALUCON BH COL FNS INET KYE MK PCA ROH SORKON TBSP TRUE VIBHAAMARIN BIGC CPALL FPI INOX L&E ML PCSGH ROJNA SPACK TEAM TSE VNGAMATA BJCHI CPF FSMART INSURE LALIN MPG PDG RP SPALI TFG TSI VNTANAN BKD CPL FVC IRC LPN MTLS PDI RWI SPCG TFI TSTE WAVEAOT BLAND CSC GC J LRH NBC PIMO SAMCO SPPT THAI TTW WHAAP BROCK CSR GEL JAS LTX NCH PK SANKO SPRC TIC TU WICE

AKP BKI CPN ECL HTC KKP MINT PE PTG SAT SPC TGCI TNITY TVIAMANAH BLA CSL EGCO ICC KTB MONO PG PTT SCB SPI THANI TNL WACOALASP BTS DCC ERW IFEC KTC MOONG PHOL PTTEP SCC SSF THCOM TOGAYUD BWG DEMCO FE INTUCH LANNA MSC PM PTTGC SCG SSI THRE TOPBAFS CENTEL DIMET FSS IRPC LHBANK MTI PPP Q-CON SINGER SSSC THREL TPCBANPU CFRESH DRT GBX IVL LHK NKI PPS QLT SIS SVI TIPCO TPCORPBAY CIMBT DTAC GCAP KBANK MBK NSI PR RATCH SMPC TCAP TISCO TSCBBL CNS DTC GLOW KCE MBKET OCEAN PSL S & J SNC TCMC TMB TSTHBCP CPI EASTW HANA KGI MFC PB PT SABINA SNP TF TMD TTCL

AAV AU CBG CTW GJS KAMART M-CHAI PAP RCL SGF SUC TK TTA VIHACC AUCT CCET CWT GL KCM MCS PATO RICH SHANG SUTHA TKN TTI VPOADAM BA CCN DAII GLAND KDH MDX PERM RICHY SIAM SVH TKS TTL VTEAEONTS BAT-3K CCP DCON GOLD KIAT METCO PF RJH SIM SVOA TM TTTM WGAFC BCPG CGD DCORP GRAMMY KKC MODERN PICO RPC SIMAT SWC TMW TUCC WINNERAHC BDMS CHEWA DRACO GRAND KOOL MPIC PJW RS SIRI T TNDT TWP WORKAIT BEC CHG DSGT GSTEL KTIS NC PL S SLP TACC TNH TWZ WORLDAJ BEM CHUO DTCI GTB KWC NEP PLE S11 SMART TAPAC TNP TYCN WPAJD BGT CIG EARTH GYT KWG NETBAY PMTA SAFARI SMM TC TNPC UAC WRAKR BIG CITY EASON HARN LDC NEW POLAR SALEE SMT TCB TNR UEC YCIALLA BIZ CK EIC HFT LEE NEWS POMPUI SAM SOLAR TCC TOPP UMI YNPALT BJC CKP EKH HPT LH NFC POST SAMART SPA TCCC TPAC UMS YUASAAMA BLISS CMO EMC HTECH LIT NOBLE PPM SAMTEL SPG TCJ TPBI UPAMATAV BM CMR EPG HYDRO LOXLEY NOK PRAKIT SAPPE SPORT TCOAT TPCH UPAAMC BOL CNT ESSO IHL LPH NPK PRECHA SAWAD SPVI TFD TPIPL UPFAPX BPP COLOR F&D IRCP LST NWR PRIN SAWANG SQ TGPRO TPOLY UPOICAQ BR COM7 FANCY IT MACO NYT PRO SCI SSC TH TR UTARIP BRC COMAN FMT ITD MAJOR OHTL PSH SCP SST THANA TRC UTPARROW BSM CPH FN ITEL MANRIN OISHI PTL SEAFCO STAR THE TRITN UVASEFA BTC CPR FOCUS JCT MATCH ORI QTC SELIC STEC THIP TRUBB UVANASN BTW CRANE FORTH JSP MATI OTO RAM SF STHAI THL TSF VAROATP30 BUI CSP GENCO JWD MAX PAE RCI SFP STPI TIW TSR VISource : Thai Institute of Directors

Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against Corruption programme (Thai CAC)

under Thai Institute of Directors (as of October 28, 2016) are categorised into:

• Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC, and

• Companies certified by CAC.

Companies that have declared their intention to join CAC

Companies certified by CAC

N/A

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