BARACK OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY?

• Generosity• Friendship• Proximity• Repayment of historical debt

– Or• Self-centered national interest.

CONCEPTUAL ISSUES

• 1. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.”• 2. Sovereignty and internal vs. international

domains.• 3. Emphasis on war vs. peace.• 4. Importance of democracy.• 5. Value of international cooperation, institutions.• 6. American power: extent vs. limits.

FOUNDATIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES

• U.S. loss of “soft power”

• Continuing frustration in Latin America

• Importance of Latin America to U.S.

• Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE?• 1. Election of a president with personal commitment

to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America.

• 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention—e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack.

• 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.”

• 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

THE OBAMA RECORD• Exaggerated expectations

• Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Iraq, Afghanistan)

• Hesitant beginnings, ambivalent stances

• Nuanced view of Latin America

CENTRAL ISSUES• Honduras: commitment to democracy?

• Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo

• Points of tension:– Venezuela– Bolivia– “New Left” in general

• War on Drugs

• Immigration

OBAMA AND CIR

• Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth)

• Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas

• Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000

• Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers

• Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

EXECUTIVE ACTIONS

• 2014 mid-term elections and Obama’s liberation

• Reducing deportations

• Negotiations with Cuba

CUBA

• Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts

• Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes

• More flights (chartered)

• Remittances of $500 per quarter

• Context:– Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state

– Emergence of “civil society”

– Republican takeover of House of Representatives

– New generation of Cuban-Americans

And so…?