Management in Onzekere Tijden

Working on Futures

Bart Götte | Founder FutureFlock*

@bartgotte

About FutureFlock

Unfolding Business Futures

Foresight: Forewarned=Forearmed

Scenario’s

Trends

Fact Finding

Insights: Add Meaning

Interpretation

Cause – Effect

Overcome Bias

Impact: Business Models

Value Propositions

Service Concepts

Innovation

Question

Today’s Life Expectancy of a newborn

Life Expectancy NL

The Historic Knowledge Perspective

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

85 75 65 55 45 35 25

Life Expectancy NL is a linearity

Life Expectancy NL has increased 65% in 100 years

Life Expectancy NL

…From a Wider Historic Perspective

Life Expectancy NL is a linearity

Life Expectancy NL has increased 65% in 100 years

7000BC 6000BC 5000BC 4000BC 3000BC 2000BC 1000BC 0 1000 2000

85 75 65 55 45 35 25 20

Life Expectancy NL

The informed Now Perspective

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130

150

115

105

95

85

75

65

CBS 2011: “Tussen 2000 en 2010 is

de levensverwachting van

pasgeborenen sterk toegenomen.

Deze steeg voor mannen van 75,5 tot

78,8 jaar en voor vrouwen van 80,6 tot

82,7 jaar. “

Impact of Science

Genetics

Nanoech

Medical

Lifestyle

Impact of Catastrophe

SES Collapse

Resistance Bacteria

Lifestyle

+ uninformed (New Science)

What If We Will Be Centennials?

Impact on Retirement Funding?

Healthcare Costs?

Futures, Vision, Strategy

The Suprise-Free Future Isn’t

Futures, Vision, Strategy

Forecasts & Scenario’s

Hoge mate van voorspelbaarheid,

weinig onzekerheid, brede impact

Lage mate van voorspelbaarheid,

veel onzekerheid, smalle impact

Events

Trends

Structuren

tijd

Waarde

A

B

F

S

H

In Sum

Scenario’s

Uncertainty X Impact The power of Relevance

Futures The power of multiple visions

Stakeholders The power of multiple actors

Analogy & Metaphors The power of Storytelling

Managerial Guidance Use of Management Models

Goal Generating Business Options

Identifying Robust Winners

Identifying Risk Aware Policy

Benefit Strategy = Fun, Creative, Distinctive

Unfolding Business Perspectives