basic business statistics, 10e © 2006 prentice-hall, inc. chap 1-1 winter 2006 introduction ms 205...
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Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 1-1
Winter 2006
Introduction
MS 205Quantitative Business Modeling
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-2
Basic Concepts of Statistics
Statistics is concerned with:
Processing and analyzing data Collecting, presenting, and transforming
data to assist decision makers
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-3
Key Definitions
A population (universe) is the collection of all members of a group
A sample is a portion of the population selected for analysis
A parameter is a numerical measure that describes a characteristic of a population
A statistic is a numerical measure that describes a characteristic of a sample
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-4
Population vs. Sample
a b c d
ef gh i jk l m n
o p q rs t u v w
x y z
Population Sample
b c
g i n
o r u
y
Measures used to describe a population are called parameters
Measures computed from sample data are called statistics
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-5
Two Branches of Statistics
Descriptive statistics Collecting, summarizing, and presenting data
Inferential statistics Drawing conclusions about a population based
only on sample data
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-6
Descriptive Statistics
Collect data e.g., Survey
Present data e.g., Tables and graphs
Characterize data e.g., Sample mean =
iX
n
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-7
Inferential Statistics
Estimation e.g., Estimate the population
mean weight using the sample mean weight
Hypothesis testing e.g., Test the claim that the
population mean weight is 120 pounds
Drawing conclusions about a population based on sample results.
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-8
Collecting Data
SecondaryData Compilation
Observation
Experimentation
Print or Electronic
Survey
PrimaryData Collection
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-9
Types of Data
Data
Categorical Numerical
Discrete Continuous
Examples:
Marital Status Political Party Eye Color (Defined categories) Examples:
Number of Children Defects per hour (Counted items)
Examples:
Weight Voltage (Measured characteristics)
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc..
Levels of Measurementand Measurement Scales
Interval Data
Ordinal Data
Nominal Data
Highest Level
(Strongest forms of measurement)
Higher Levels
Lowest Level
(Weakest form of measurement)
Categories (no ordering or direction)
Ordered Categories (rankings, order, or scaling)
Differences between measurements but no true zero
Ratio DataDifferences between measurements, true zero exists
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc..
Levels of Measurementand Measurement Scales
Interval Data
Ordinal Data
Nominal Data
Height, Age, Weekly Food Spending
Service quality rating, Standard & Poor’s bond rating, Student letter grades
Marital status, Type of car owned
Ratio Data
Temperature in Fahrenheit, Standardized exam score
Categories (no ordering or direction)
Ordered Categories (rankings, order, or scaling)
Differences between measurements but no true zero
Differences between measurements, true zero exists
EXAMPLES:
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-12
Business Statistics Begin as Data!
store sales store sales store sales store sales store sales1 $4,610.19 11 $4,376.70 21 $5,466.46 31 $5,386.23 41 $4,247.052 $5,162.04 12 $4,980.50 22 $4,966.95 32 $4,898.44 42 $5,377.373 $5,090.04 13 $5,331.17 23 $4,984.81 33 $4,332.03 43 $5,167.414 $5,013.03 14 $4,406.93 24 $4,823.75 34 $4,774.19 44 $4,691.525 $4,981.06 15 $4,560.95 25 $5,538.26 35 $5,606.18 45 $5,280.086 $5,321.75 16 $5,304.02 26 $4,724.14 36 $4,484.85 46 $5,131.347 $4,913.79 17 $4,227.67 27 $4,736.50 37 $5,226.62 47 $5,379.698 $4,224.06 18 $5,213.50 28 $4,712.66 38 $5,107.49 48 $4,865.859 $5,109.23 19 $5,252.66 29 $5,695.59 39 $4,417.79 49 $3,980.63
10 $5,547.03 20 $5,553.03 30 $5,098.40 40 $5,692.39 50 $5,146.09
Sales for all 50 McSorley’s stores for December 31, 2005.
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-13
Visualizing Data: the HistogramHistogram
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Bin
Fre
qu
en
cy
Frequency
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-14
Summarizing & Conveying Data
Minimum 3980.63
Maximum 5695.59
Range 1714.97Mean 4982.40Median 5051.54
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-15
Inferring from a Sample
store sales store sales store sales store sales store sales1 $4,610.19 11 $4,376.70 21 $5,466.46 31 $5,386.23 41 $4,247.052 $5,162.04 12 $4,980.50 22 $4,966.95 32 $4,898.44 42 $5,377.373 $5,090.04 13 $5,331.17 23 $4,984.81 33 $4,332.03 43 $5,167.414 $5,013.03 14 $4,406.93 24 $4,823.75 34 $4,774.19 44 $4,691.525 $4,981.06 15 $4,560.95 25 $5,538.26 35 $5,606.18 45 $5,280.086 $5,321.75 16 $5,304.02 26 $4,724.14 36 $4,484.85 46 $5,131.347 $4,913.79 17 $4,227.67 27 $4,736.50 37 $5,226.62 47 $5,379.698 $4,224.06 18 $5,213.50 28 $4,712.66 38 $5,107.49 48 $4,865.859 $5,109.23 19 $5,252.66 29 $5,695.59 39 $4,417.79 49 $3,980.63
10 $5,547.03 20 $5,553.03 30 $5,098.40 40 $5,692.39 50 $5,146.09
59.280sdeviationstdsample46.5090xmeansample
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-16
Sampling Distributions & Interval Estimates
x
If means of random samples of size 10 were compiled, they would have their own histogram.
This indicates a sampling distribution, and leads to an interval estimate for the population:
confidenceeifor
n
%95..,05.
]57.5352,83.4828[
87.26170.509010
51.42296.170.5090zx /2
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-17
Inferring from Samples from Two Populations
29.5381xmeansample
store sales store sales store sales store sales store sales1 $5,848.23 11 $5,741.09 21 $4,344.04 31 $5,257.14 41 $5,787.472 $5,853.49 12 $5,057.03 22 $5,559.21 32 $6,416.79 42 $5,523.113 $4,851.46 13 $5,195.91 23 $5,161.21 33 $5,152.92 43 $4,908.604 $5,364.32 14 $4,191.21 24 $5,282.24 34 $5,630.53 44 $4,709.735 $5,268.38 15 $5,586.52 25 $5,430.77 35 $4,952.73 45 $5,908.286 $5,811.48 16 $5,635.64 26 $5,628.26 36 $4,486.57 46 $5,383.527 $5,322.21 17 $5,851.78 27 $4,561.28 37 $4,871.58 47 $5,647.858 $4,999.34 18 $5,120.53 28 $5,832.65 38 $5,440.68 48 $5,481.099 $5,625.81 19 $5,885.36 29 $4,261.30 39 $6,026.93 49 $5,360.95
10 $5,908.91 20 $4,990.95 30 $6,198.24 40 $5,140.08 50 $5,199.29
Sales for all 50 Wonder’s stores for December 31, 2005.
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-18
Are you 95% sure that Wonder’s mean sales exceed McSorley’s?
Ho: M W; McSorley’s mean sales is no less than Wonder’s
Ha: M < W; McSorley’s mean sales is less than Wonder’s
867.4
5051.422
5051.422
0)29.538170.5090(
)()(
22
22
W
W
M
M
WMWM
nn
xxzstatistictest
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc.. Chap 1-19
Are you 95% sure that Wonder’s mean sales exceed McSorley’s?
zz00
Area = .95Area = .95
z.05=-1.645
Do not reject Ho
Reject Ho
Compare test statistic z=-4.867 to critical value z.05=-1.645.
Conclusion: Reject Ho
z=-4.867