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09 FEB 13 FEB 2015 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Page 1: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

09 FEB – 13 FEB 2015

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

MAJOR EVENTS As the India is gearing up for the Union Budget on February 28, buzz is that Arun

Jaitley, Finance Minister, may announce a cut on Import duty on Gold. Media reports

say a 2-4 per cent reduction on Gold import duty can be expected in the upcoming

union budget. The move is likely to bolsrter gold exports and manufacturing of gems

and jewellery. There has been a demand from the industry to slash the customs duty

from the prevalent 10 per cent to two per cent.

Gold imports are declining continuously. Gems and jewellery sector contributes

significantly in the country’s total exports. On account of this, we are expecting a cut

in the import duty. But it is up to the Finance Minister to take the final decision in the

Budget.Nirmala Sitharaman, Commerce and Industry Minister, had hinted that the

jewellery sector can expect some incentives soon in the budget. Arun Jaitley is likely

to present the union budget on February 28 for the 2015/16 fiscal year. As part of its

pre-Union Budget recommendations, All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation

(GJF) had urged thegovernment to bring down the duty on gold from 10% to 2% to

encourage ‘Make in India’ initiative in the gems & jewellery sector.

Crude oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday, continuing a rebound from

near-six-year lows plumbed last week, although no rapid recovery is expected amid

rising global inventories and steady OPEC supply. Prices closed more than 4 per cent

higher on Thursday, pushed up by conflict in producer Libya and expectations of a

boost to oil demand after China's central bank easing. Benchmark Brent crude futures

were $1 higher at $57.57 a barrel at 0741 GMT, after closing up $2.41 on Thursday.

US crude for March delivery was also up $1 at $51.47 a barrel. The contract had

finished up $2.03 the previous day.

Physical demand has been boosted recently by traders storing crude on tankers to

benefit from higher prices for delivery in future months - a market structure known

as contango - and stockpiling by major importing countries such as China and India.

Growing numbers of OPEC delegates say they expect no rapid recovery in oil prices,

even though the market is showing tentative signs of a rally from near-six-year lows.

Late on Thursday top OPEC producer Saudi Arabia cut its monthly oil prices for Asian

buyers to the lowest level in at least 12 years.

US crude extends

rally by $1, but

swelling inventory

drags.

Copper Marginally

Lower In Evening

Trades On MCX.

The prices of Copper are trading marginally lower in the intraday session that is the

last for this week. The prices of Copper were down by Rs 353.25 per kg, compared to

Rs 355.5 per kg on Thursday. The triggers from the global markets have remained

weak for metal. Reserve Bank of Australia said that the economy is expected to grow

at a pace of 2.25 percent to 3.25 percent through December 2015 and 3 percent to 4

percent in the following year. This was less than the previous forecast for 2.5 percent

to 3.5 percent GDP growth in 2015 and 2.75 percent to 4.25 percent in 2016. In US,

initial jobless claims rose to 278000, an increase of 11000 from the previous week's

revised level of 267000. Economists had expected jobless claims to climb to 290000

from the 265000 originally reported for the previous week.

However on the positive front, Germany's industrial production expanded for the

fourth consecutive month in December, but the growth rate weakened, defying

expectations for a faster expansion, as mild weather dampened construction activity.

Industrial output edged up 0.1 percent in December from a month ago, Destatis said

Friday. Production was forecast to rise 0.4 percent after expanding by a revised 0.1

percent in November.

India Budget:

Govt may

consider 2-4%

cut on Gold

import duty.

Page 3: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Feb 09 Day 1 ALL G20 Meetings

8:30pm Labor Market Conditions Index m/m 6.1

Feb 10 Day 2 ALL G20 Meetings

6:50pm FOMC Member Lacker Speaks

7:30pm NFIB Small Business Index 101.3 100.4

8:30pm JOLTS Job Openings 5.03M 4.97M

10th-13th Mortgage Delinquencies 5.85%

8:30pm IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 51.4 51.5

8:30pm Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.8%

Feb 11 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 6.3M

11:31pm 10-y Bond Auction 1.93/2.6

Feb 12 12:30am Federal Budget Balance -2.6B 1.9B

7:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m -0.4% -1.0%

7:00pm Retail Sales m/m -0.3% -0.9%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 279K 278K

8:30pm Business Inventories m/m 0.2% 0.2%

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -115B

11:31pm 30-y Bond Auction 2.43/2.3

Feb 13 7:00pm Import Prices m/m -3.1% -2.5%

8:30pm Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.2 98.1

8:30pm Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations 2.5%

Page 4: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26615 26130 25680 27070 27450 27840

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

36385 35190 33830 37970 39310 40580

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways

movement apart from last trading

session which showed bearishness due

to US data and test the lower band of

channel pattern at around 26650. Now,

if it is able to break channel pattern on

lower side then 26300 will act as major

support level. On other hand if it

maintains above 27250 then bullish

movement may take it towards the

next resistance range of 28000-28500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell

below 26600 for the targets of 26000

with stop loss of 27300.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

downward movement last week, not

able to maintain above 39000, drag

and found support around trendline.

Now, if it sustain below 36500 then

next support is seen in the range of

35000-34000. On higher side

maintaining above 38500 will again

lead it towards the resistance level of

40500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 36500 for

the targets of 35000-34000, with stop

loss of 38500.

Page 5: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3050 2830 2700 3325 3570 3800

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

346.90 337.25 325 360.85 371 382.50

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed

correction on higher side and face

resistance around 360. Now, if it

maintains above 361 then next

resistance will be seen around 370. On

the other hand if bearishness again

become active then it will again drag

upto support level of 343 below which

332 will act as major weekly support

level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

buy above 3260 for the target of 3435,

with stop loss of 3000.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

bullish movement after making double

bottom pattern on daily chart and also

closed above its important resistance

level i.e. 3140. Now, if it maintains

above trendline then next important

resistance level is seen around 3500.

On the other hand if it sustain below

3100 then again it will darg upto

support level of 2750.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 346, with stop loss of 361 for the

target of 333.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Basic Tips of Commodity Market

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