baskett lab uncertainty lab meeting
TRANSCRIPT
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Science (1975)
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Humans!
• Cognitively Funky
• Culturally Bizaare
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Lichtenstein et al. (1982)
No wonder
scientific
uncertainty is so
strange to people
We VASTLY
underestimate our
own uncertainty of
even simple
judgements
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Rabinovich and Morton (2012)
Our response to uncertainty, like
everything, is contextually and culturally
mediated
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“Which of the following numbers represents the biggest risk of getting a disease? 1 in 100, 1 in 1000, or 1 in 10?” was answered incorrectly by 25% of U.S. participants and 28% of German participants. (G. Gigerenzer et al. 2007)
H. Sapiens exhibits highly
variable numeracy and
scientific literacy*
*Some people are dumb as bricks
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Scientist’s view
of uncertainty is
out of whack
with how
everyone else
thinks
(US Climate Assessment Program 2009)
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Know thy audience
“One of the clearest findings in the empirical literature on risk communication is that no one can design effective risk communication messages without some empirical evaluation and refinement of those messages with members of the target audience” (US Climate Assessment Program 2009)
See this:
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Numbers – not so simple
Denominator bias/neglect
Be consistent in your presentation of odds or
probabilities.
But present important single values in
multiple ways.
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Words: ambiguous but unavoidable
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“Graphical features that improve accuracy of quantitative reasoning appear to be different from features that induce behavior change, and features that viewers like may not support either of the two goals” (Ancker et. al. 2006)
Graphics: Not a pancea to actual
communication skills
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Uncertainty beyond numbers
“For some problems there comes a time when uncertainty is so high that conventional modes of probabilistic analysis no longer make sense…a much simpler approach, such as a bounding or order- of-
magnitude analysis, might be superior”
“Analysis that yields predictions is very helpful when our knowledge is sufficient to make meaningful predictions. However, the past history of success in such efforts suggests great caution…When meaningful prediction is not possible, alternative strategies, such as searching for responses or policies that will be robust across a wide range of possible
futures, deserve careful consideration.”
“When second-order uncertainty is being considered, one should be very careful to determine that the added level of such complication will aid in, and will not unnecessarily complicate, subsequent use of the
results.”
US Climate Assessment Program (2009)
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IPCC 2010
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