Bucks & Brexit

6 May 2016

Polls

Polls

Tota

l

Con

serv

ativ

e

Labo

ur

18-2

4

25-4

9

50-6

4

65+

ABC

1

C2D

E

Lond

on

RoS

E

Remain 41 40 70 53 44 38 29 51 27 50 36Leave 42 48 21 27 35 48 59 36 51 35 44Won't vote 4 0 1 5 5 3 1 2 6 2 5Don't know 13 12 8 15 16 11 11 11 16 13 15

Voting Intention Age RegionSocial grade

Mix 96, May BBF, February

Remain: 23% Remain: 54%Leave: 29% Leave: 41%Don’t know: 48% Don’t know 5%

Product ivi t y

70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135

Buckinghamshire

London

Bristol

Leeds

Sheffield

Tyneside

Manchester

Birmingham

Liverpool

Nottingham

2014 2013

2012 2011

Output grow th by sector

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Production

ManufacturingConstruction

Distribution; transport; accommodation and food

Information and communication

Financial and insurance activities

Real estate activities

Business service activities

Public administration; education; health

Other services and household activities

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

GVA

, 201

4, £

m

Change in GVA, 2010-14, %

Jobs densit y

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Buckinghamshire South East

Great Britain London

Full and par t -t ime w ork ing

75

100

125

150

175

200

Jan

2008

-Dec

200

8

Apr 2

008-

Mar

200

9

Jul 2

008-

Jun

2009

Oct

200

8-Se

p 20

09

Jan

2009

-Dec

200

9

Apr 2

009-

Mar

201

0

Jul 2

009-

Jun

2010

Oct

200

9-Se

p 20

10

Jan

2010

-Dec

201

0

Apr 2

010-

Mar

201

1

Jul 2

010-

Jun

2011

Oct

201

0-Se

p 20

11

Jan

2011

-Dec

201

1

Apr 2

011-

Mar

201

2

Jul 2

011-

Jun

2012

Oct

201

1-Se

p 20

12

Jan

2012

-Dec

201

2

Apr 2

012-

Mar

201

3

Jul 2

012-

Jun

2013

Oct

201

2-Se

p 20

13

Jan

2013

-Dec

201

3

Apr 2

013-

Mar

201

4

Jul 2

013-

Jun

2014

Oct

201

3-Se

p 20

14

Jan

2014

-Dec

201

4

Apr 2

014-

Mar

201

5

Jul 2

014-

Jun

2015

Oct

201

4-Se

p 20

15

Jan

2015

-Dec

201

5

Male FT Male PT

Femal FT Female PT

A Nat ional Debate

There is no precedent for an economy like the UK leaving the EU. Any qualitative analysis is therefore subject to uncertainty

HM Treasury, 2016, para 3.8

As with any economic modelling exercise, our estimates are subject to many uncertainties. They should therefore only be taken as indicative of the broad direction and order of magnitude of the potential economic impacts of alternative exit scenarios

PwC, 2016, 4

Modelled effect on output

Release GDP impactEconomists for Brexit April 0.9HM Treasury April -7 - -3.8OECD April -3.3Open Europe April -1.5 - -0.5PwC March -5.5 - -3.0CEP / LSE 2015 -3.1 - -1.1

Government ’s leaf let

No. % No. % No. %Aerospace 103,900 0.3 1,100 0.0 1,500 0.6 47Chemicals and pharma 100,000 0.3 2,220 0.0 700 0.3 53Financial services 1,060,100 3.1 367,400 6.5 4,900 1.9 41Food manufacture 440,810 1.3 36,840 0.7 1,100 0.4 53IT and telecoms 1,400,000 4.1 450,730 8.0 15,400 5.8 46Transport & storage 1,400,000 4.1 200,000 3.5 6,400 2.5 44

Total 34,100,000 5,667,560 263,900 44

UK BuckinghamshireLondon % exports to EU

Local level Brexit r isk

2015-2018 2018-2021 2021-2025Aylesbury Vale -0.02 -0.23 -0.44 Chiltern -0.01 -0.28 -0.55 South Bucks -0.01 -0.27 -0.52 Wycombe -0.01 -0.23 -0.41 Buckinghamshire -0.01 -0.25 -0.46 South East -0.03 -0.29 -0.55

2015-2018 2018-2021 2021-2025Aylesbury Vale -2 -94 -433 Chiltern 0 -48 -87 South Bucks -1 -48 -83 Wycombe -2 -89 -252 Buckinghamshire -5 -279 -854 South East -113 -4,975 -17,268

GVA

Jobs

Expor ts f rom the South East

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EU

Non-EU

Migrat ion

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

EU

Non EU

British

Migrat ion - Buck inghamshire

AllNo. No. % Rank No. % Rank

Aylesbury Vale 75,310 65,279 86.7 249 3,429 4.6 139 Chiltern 35,476 29,974 84.5 269 2,017 5.7 83 South Bucks 33,210 26,026 78.4 306 2,524 7.6 41 Wycombe 80,986 66,877 82.6 286 4,443 5.5 93

Buckinghamshire Thames Valley 224,982 188,156 83.6 33 12,413 5.5 11 South East 4,063,350 3,465,517 85.3 9 223,464 5.5 3 London 4,500,481 2,796,143 62.1 10 524,965 11.7 1 England 25,087,843 21,090,938 84.1 - 1,399,236 5.6 -

UK EU

Occupat ional project ions

-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

11 Corporate managers and directors

12 Other managers and proprietors

21 Science, research, engineering and technology professionals

22 Health professionals

23 Teaching and educational professionals

24 Business, media and public service professionals

31 Science, engineering and technology associate professionals

32 Health and social care associate professionals

33 Protective service occupations

34 Culture, media and sports occupations

35 Business and public service associate professionals

41 Administrative occupations

42 Secretarial and related occupations

51 Skilled agricultural and related trades

52 Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades

53 Skilled construction and building trades

54 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades

61 Caring personal service occupations

62 Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations

71 Sales occupations

72 Customer service occupations

81 Process, plant and machine operatives

82 Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives

91 Elementary trades and related occupations

92 Elementary administration and service occupations

2014-19

2019-24

Closing remarks

• Uncertain

• Buckinghamshire’s economy remains strong

• Polls suggest Buckinghamshire will vote to leave

• Change is coming