bbg research series · 2018. 5. 30. · utilizing bbg capabilities and expertise to meet unfilled...
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BBG Research Series
Assessing Russia’s Influence in its Periphery
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Russia-Findings from the World Poll 2014 Neli Esipova
Director of Research, Global Migration and Regional Director, Gallup
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9%
22%
24%
46%
52%
56%
59%
63%
66%
71%
76%
13%
18%
29%
32%
8%
14%
23%
10%
13%
12%
14%
65%
57%
40%
8%
31%
22%
4%
21%
11%
9%
2%
13%
4%
7%
14%
10%
8%
14%
6%
10%
8%
8%
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Estonia
Moldova
Uzbekistan
Armenia
Belarus
Tajikistan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
RELIABLE NOT RELIABLE (DO NOT USE) DK/RF
News Sources for Situation in Ukraine and Crimea:
Russian Media
Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.
Please tell me whether you think each of the following sources is a reliable or not reliable source for news about the
situation in Ukraine and Crimea. If you do not use this news source, just say so.
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5%
8%
10%
12%
12%
13%
14%
18%
19%
22%
22%
48%
13%
29%
44%
21%
21%
4%
33%
41%
27%
24%
36%
76%
46%
28%
58%
53%
68%
41%
26%
37%
45%
12%
4%
15%
17%
9%
13%
14%
8%
15%
14%
9%
Russia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Belarus
Armenia
Uzbekistan
Georgia
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Moldova
Estonia
RELIABLE NOT RELIABLE (DO NOT USE) DK/RF
News Sources for Situation in Ukraine and Crimea: Western Media
Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.
Please tell me whether you think each of the following sources is a reliable or not reliable source for news about the
situation in Ukraine and Crimea. If you do not use this news source, just say so.
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Most FSU Residents Who Use Western and Russian Media Trust Russian Media More Question: I would like to ask you about different sources for news about the events taking place in Ukraine and Crimea.
Please tell me whether you think each of the following sources is a reliable or not reliable source for news about the
situation in Ukraine and Crimea. If you do not use this news source, just say so.
42% 45%
58% 64%
67% 74%
79% 80% 81% 85% 85%
36%
44% 41%
21% 26%
37%
10%
32% 36%
Georgia Estonia Moldova Azerbaijan Belarus Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Russia Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan
% Media reliable, among those who use both sources
Russian Media Western Media
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Support Crimea Joining Russia
95%
67% 63%
58% 57% 55%
35% 30%
24%
10% 7% 4%
% Support
Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?
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Support for Crimea Joining Russia is Higher Among Adults Who Use Both Russian and Western Media
95%
67% 63%
58% 57% 55%
35% 30%
10% 7%
95%
77% 81% 81%
71% 69%
45%
59%
21%
8%
% Support
Total Watch Russian and Western Media
Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?
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Support for Crimea Joining Russia is Lower for People Who Do Not Use Any Media
95%
67% 63%
58% 57% 55%
35% 30%
10% 7%
95%
77% 81% 81%
71% 69%
45%
59%
21%
8%
87%
51%
39% 33%
36% 39%
30%
18%
4% 5%
% Support
Total Watch Russian and Western Media No Media
Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?
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Support Crimea Joining by Education
97%
55% 55% 55% 51% 51%
33%
23% 21%
9% 4% 3%
94%
74%
65% 62% 57% 56%
35%
27% 32%
21%
5% 8%
Elementary Higher
Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?
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% Support
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Support Crimea Joining Russia – Nationality
57%
30% 24%
65% 72%
46% 53%
11% 12%
Kazakhstan Estonia Latvia
% Support
Total Russians Other nationalities
Question: Do you support or not support Crimea joining Russia?
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Likelihood of Crimea Situation Happening
23%
8%
3%
2%
4%
3%
30%
16%
16%
6%
12%
7%
8%
1%
2%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Georgia
Latvia
Estonia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Belarus
11
Question: How likely is it that a situation similar to Crimea could happen in this country, in which a region of [your country]
becomes part of Russia? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not at all likely?
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U.S. International Media Approach Jeff Trimble
Deputy Director, International Broadcasting Bureau
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“If the greatest battle of the 20th century was the battle for freedom
of information and against censorship, then the battle in the 21st
century will concern the abuse of freedom of information, the use
of information as a weapon by authoritarian rulers and non-state
actors.”
- Vasily Gatov
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To inform, engage and connect people around the world
in support of freedom and democracy.
BBG Mission
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Five Priorities
Aggressively pursue a shift to digital platforms,
Enhance the strategic cooperation across BBG network
entities,
Enhance the curation and acquisition of content,
Ensure impact by measuring progress and success, and
Target BBG resources to cover key spheres of influence,
including those of China, Cuba, Iran, violent extremism
(across regions), and Russia
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Russia’s Sphere of Influence
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Strategies in the Region
Focusing programming to impact strategic audiences
Expanding partnerships to reach audiences in local markets and
inform the news agenda
Moving resources to digital platforms to directly engage
audiences
Increasing research on the ground to better understand
audiences and impact
Utilizing BBG capabilities and expertise to meet unfilled strategic
needs and opportunities
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Current Time
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VIDEO
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Role of Russian Media in the Baltics and Moldova
21
Paul Tibbitts
Director, Market Insight and Evaluation, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Who are the Russian speakers in the Baltics and Moldova?
The majority of Russian speakers in all four countries are not ethnic
Russians.
Russian speakers are defined as those who say they would understand most or
all of a radio or TV broadcast in Russian.
81%
65%
85%
59%
4%
28% 31%
5%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Russian Speakers and Ethnic Russians
Russian speakers Ethnic Russians
22
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With the exception of Moldova, most Russian speakers are older
In addition to being older, Russian speakers in the Baltics are
concentrated in urban areas.
In contrast, Russian speakers in Moldova are younger, and only a slight
majority are in urban areas.
8%
18%
10%
22%
24%
23%
23%
28%
30%
25%
30%
24%
38%
34%
36%
26%
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Moldova
Russian Speakers by Age
15-29 30-44 45-59 60 or more
23
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Lithuanians are least likely to turn to Russian-language media
69%
49%
59%
21%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Use of Russian-language media for news among the
general population
85%
76%
69%
36%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Use of Russian-language media for news among
Russian Speakers
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TV is the most popular Russian-language medium
95%
55%
49%
36% 36%
30% 28%
88%
45%
57%
38%
23%
12% 12%
88%
50%
46%
36%
27%
21%
14%
85%
31%
41%
25%
13% 11% 6%
TV Internet Radio Print SocialNetworks
SMS Apps
Weekly use of platforms to access Russian-language news
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
25
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Russian speakers rely most on domestic media
80% 86% 87% 86%
70% 72% 71% 72% 66% 68%
52% 54%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Importance of…for forming opinions on current events
Domestic Media Russian Federation Media International Media
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Russian Federation media ranks lowest in trustworthiness among users
42%
80% 79%
67%
42%
63% 63%
54%
45%
71% 67%
74%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Users of media who report trusting it “A great deal” or “Somewhat”
Domestic Media Russian Media International Media
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In the Baltics, trust in Russian Federation media is an indicator of support for Russia
In Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, just using Russian Federation media for
news and information does not correlate with support for Russia’s
policies.
- Rather, those who TRUST Russian media have much higher levels
of support.
All respondents, users of Russian Federation media, and not, were asked
if they support or oppose:
– Russia’s actions in Ukraine
– Domestic policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin
– Putin’s international policies
28
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Support Russia’s actions in Ukraine
68%
50% 45%
13% 11% 11%
5% 7% 6%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Use and trust Russian Federation media
Use and DO NOT trust Russian Federation media
Do not use Russian Federation media
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Support Putin’s domestic policies
68%
58% 55%
15% 14% 10%
7% 10% 8%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Use and trust Russian Federation media
Use and DO NOT trust Russian Federation media
Do not use Russian Federation media
30
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Support Putin’s international policies
68%
50% 45%
13% 11% 11%
5% 7% 6%
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Use and trust Russian Federation media
Use and DO NOT trust Russian Federation media
Do not use Russian Federation media
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Distrust in Russian Federation media also played a role in level of support in Moldova
In Moldova, levels of support among non-users of Russian Federation
media was similar to those who trust Russian Federation media.
Among those who use but distrust Russian Federation media, support was
much lower.
64% 57%
61%
36%
23% 25%
60% 57% 58%
Russia's actions in Ukraine Putin's domestic policies Putin's international policies
Support for . . .
Use and trust Russian media
Use and do not trust Russian media
Do not use Russian media
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How many trust and use Russian Federation media?
29% 29%
34%
10%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Percent who use and trust Russian Federation media from the total population
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Who trusts Russian Federation media? Ethnicity plays a major part
46%
26%
41% 41%
85% 81%
86%
30%
95%
73% 75%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Trust in Russian Federation Media by Ethnicity
Titular Ethnicity Russian Other
34
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Who trusts Russian Federation media? There is no clear pattern in age or gender
51%
80%
57%
44% 42%
57% 61%
48%
39%
61% 61% 59%
40%
63%
69%
57%
Moldova Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Trust in Russian Federation Media by Age
15-29 30-44 45-59 60 and over
35
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Conclusion
Trust in Russian Federation media is more significant than
simply viewership of media from the Russian Federation.
Consumers of Russian Federation media place a lower level
of trust in it than consumers of other international media
place in those sources.
– But rates of usage of other international media are much
lower
– What could increase international media use rates?
36
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Appendix
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BBG Research Methodology Slide
38
RussiaEstonia
Moldova
LatviaLithuania
Moldova
Fieldwork Date: August 2015
Sample size:1152
Lithuania
Field work Date: July
Sample Size:1101
Latvia
Field work Date: July 2015
Sample Size:1166
Estonia
Field Work Date: August &
September 2015
Sample Size:1052
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World Poll Methodology
39
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Gallup World Poll Coverage
Copyright © 2013 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2015 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.