bbva, better placed in the current environment · pdf filerisk of loosing global regulatory...

36
1 March 2012 BBVA, better placed in the current environment

Upload: doanthuy

Post on 27-Mar-2018

225 views

Category:

Documents


6 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

1

March 2012

BBVA, better placed in the current environment

Page 2: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

2

DisclaimerThis document is only provided for information purposes and does not constitute, nor must it be interpreted as, an offer to sell or exchange or acquire, or an invitation for offers to buy securities issued by any of the aforementioned companies. Any decision to buy or invest in securities in relation to a specific issue must be made solely and exclusively on the basis of the information set out in the pertinent prospectus filed by the company in relation to such specific issue. Nobody who becomes aware of the information contained in this report must regard it as definitive, because it is subject to changes and modifications.

This document contains or may contain forward looking statements (in the usual meaning and within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995) regarding intentions, expectations or projections of BBVA or of its management on the date thereof, that refer to miscellaneous aspects, including projections about the future earnings of the business. The statements contained herein are based on our current projections, although the said earnings may be substantially modified in the future by certain risks, uncertainty and others factors relevant that may cause the results or final decisions to differ from such intentions, projections or estimates. These factors include, without limitation, (1) the market situation, macroeconomic factors, regulatory, political or government guidelines, (2) domestic and international stock market movements, exchange rates and interest rates, (3) competitive pressures, (4) technological changes, (5) alterations in the financial situation, creditworthiness or solvency of our customers, debtors or counterparts. These factors could condition and result in actual events differing from the information and intentions stated, projected or forecast in this document and other past or future documents. BBVA does not undertake to publicly revise the contents of this or any other document, either if the events are not exactly as described herein, or if such events lead to changes in the stated strategies and intentions.

The contents of this statement must be taken into account by any persons or entities that may have to make decisions or prepare or disseminate opinions about securities issued by BBVA and, in particular, by the analysts who handle this document. This document may contain summarised information or information that has not been audited, and its recipients are invited to consult the documentation and public information filed by BBVA with stock market supervisory bodies, in particular, the prospectuses and periodical information filed with the Spanish Securities Exchange Commission (CNMV) and the Annual Report on form 20-F and information on form 6-K that are disclosed to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

Distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be prohibited, and recipients into whose possession this document comes shall be solely responsible for informing themselves about, and observing any such restrictions. By accepting this document you agree to be bound by the foregoing Restrictions.

Page 3: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

3

Contents

1

Why BBVA is better placed in the current challenging environment?

Conclusions3

BBVA overview

2

Page 4: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

4

A Group with global presence

North America (2)

• USA• Mexico

South America (10)

• Argentina• Bolivia• Brazil• Chile• Colombia• Ecuador• Paraguay• Peru• Uruguay• Venezuela

Europe (10)

• Spain• France• Germany• Italy• Portugal• U.K.• Belgium• Russia• Switzerland• Turkey

Asia - Pacific (7)• Australia• South Korea• China• India• Japan• Singapore• Taiwan

Central America (3)

• Cuba• Puerto Rico• Panama

7,361Branches

32Countries

48 million

Customers

106,976Employees

16,995ATMs

Figures as of December 31, 2010

Page 5: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

5

598 Total Assets (€ bn)

A customer-centric global retail bank …

4.0Net attributable profit (€ bn) (*)

10.6ROE (%) (*)

48.4Cost to income (%)

Figures as of December 2011

(*) Ex US impairment

10.3Core Capital (%)

Page 6: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

6

Eurasia

RankingRankingDepositsDepositsLoansLoans

Spain

… and leading franchises in all geographies

Mexico

South America

USA (Sunbelt)

China (Citic Bank)Turkey (Garanti Bank)

12%

31%

11%

10%

27%

10%

2nd

1st

2nd

15 % stake (7th)

25 % stake (1st)

Ranking by deposits (except for China, by assets and for Turkey, by deposits); Spain: Data as of November 2011; México: Data as of December 2011; South America: Data as of September 2011, countries considered: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela; USA: Data as of June, 2011, market share and ranking considering only Texas and Alabama; China and Turkey: data as of Sep. 31, 2011.

Rank 4th (7% Market share)

Page 7: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

7

Total revenues by geography*BBVA Group(%)

Attributable Profit by geography*BBVA Group(%)

* Data 2011 Ex Holding and US impairment

EmergingEmerging 55%

DevelopedDeveloped 45%

EmergingEmerging 65%

DevelopedDeveloped 35%

Mexico

EurAsiaSpain

Mexico

SouthAmerica

USA

Spain

EurAsia

USA

SouthAmerica

Balanced business portfolio

31%

22%

27%

9%

11%

25%

18%

32%5%

19%

Page 8: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

8

Solid and recurrent results during the crisis

Net attributable profitEuropean peers aggregate*(€bn)

Net attributable profitBBVA(€mn)

* European peers aggregate: BARCL, BNPP, CASA, CMZ, CS, DB, HSBC, ISP, LBG, RBS , SAN, SG, UBS and UCI.

Resilient growth vs. industry roller coaster

Page 9: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

9

Contents

1

Why BBVA is better placed in the current challenging environment?

Conclusions3

BBVA overview

2

Page 10: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

10

Regulation

Capital

11

Liquidity

22

Risk

33

Earnings

44

Sources of concern affecting European banks

55

Business model66

Page 11: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

11

19% capital ratio

17-20% capital ratio depending on the business model

CRD4?

A real commitment?

BIS III

What about RWAs?

Example: Capital ratios

Increasing regulatory pressures: fragmentation

Risk of loosing global regulatory consistency – domestic issues may prevail

RegulationRegulation

Page 12: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

12*Includes conversion of convertible bonds (July); ** Acquisition of Fórum, Garanti & Credit Uruguay

Core capital ratio (Basel II)BBVA Group (%)

5.8%

10.3%3,3

2,31,1

- 1.6- 0.5

Dec. 07 Organicgeneration

Capitalincrease*

Conv.Preferred

Shares

M&Atransactions**

Other Dec. 11

Organic capital generation during the crisis: >20 bp per quarterSustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor

+21bp quarterly average

Core capital: €34 bnCore capital: € 16bn

Substantial capacity to generate capital ...CapitalCapital

Page 13: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

13

BBVA will clearly meet EBA recommendations

EBA proforma core capital ratioBBVA Group (%)

€6.3bnBufferBuffer

0.4 8,7%7,1%

1,6%

Sep. 11 Latest qtr Dec. 11

€1bn-€5.3bn

0.3% EBA gap, which we will easily close before compliance deadline

Stable dividend policy

Page 14: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

14

RWAs / Total Assets, % (1) Leverage ratio, % (1)

(1) Last data availablePeer Group: BARCL, BNPP, CASA, CMZ, CS, DB, HSBC, ISP, LBG, RBS , SAN, SG, UBS & UCI.

High quality capital with low leverage

29

30

31

33

36

41

41

45

47

48

29

2726

25

23Peer14

Peer 13

Peer 12

Peer 11

Peer 10

Peer 9

Peer 8

Peer 7

Peer 6

Peer 5

Peer 4

Peer 3

Peer 2

Peer 1

BBVA

CapitalCapital

Page 15: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

15

Small balance sheet with the largest deposit base … Customer deposits / Total Assets

BBVA Group vs. Peer Group(sep2011, %)

Total AssetsBBVA Group vs. Peer Group(Sep2011, € bn)

Peer Group: BARCL, BNPP, CASA, CMZ, CS, DB, HSBC, ISP, LBG, RBS , SAN, SG, UBS, and UCI .

23252627292930313336

4141

4748

45

Peer 14Peer 13Peer 12Peer 11

Peer 10Peer 9Peer 8Peer 7Peer 6Peer 5Peer 4Peer 3Peer 2Peer 1BBVA

584667738

850950

1.1481.1581.2471.250

1.7401.741

1.875

2.0312.282

1.926

BBVAPeer 14Peer 13Peer 12Peer 11

Peer 10Peer 9Peer 8Peer 7Peer 6Peer 5Peer 4Peer 3Peer 2Peer 1

Funding and liquidity:• Size matters: the smaller the better• Deposit base matters: the larger the better

LiquidityLiquidity

Page 16: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

16

Solid liquidity of euro balance sheet

Lower funding needs due to the retail nature of the business Lower funding needs due to the retail nature of the business 11

LiquidityLiquidity

Reduced liquidity needs given natural deleveraging of the SystemReduced liquidity needs given natural deleveraging of the System

22

Full access to wholesale marketsFull access to wholesale markets33

Lowest redemptions in 2012 amongst peer groupLowest redemptions in 2012 amongst peer group44 €11bn

Additional collateral available to absorb any liquidity shocksAdditional collateral available to absorb any liquidity shocks55

€13bn of issuances in 2011€2.0 bn senior debt issue in Feb-12

Page 17: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

17

RiskRisk

NPA ratios(%)

Risk: very stable indicators

BBVA Group

Spain Mexico

South America USA

Page 18: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

18

To improve confidence and access to capital markets by the Spanish banking sector 11

To reactivate real estate market and credit supply to the economy22

To trigger the final round of Spanish system consolidation33

Likely to improve Spanish system risk premium and normalize funding costs

RiskRisk

Spanish Banking System: Main goals of the Reform

Page 19: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

19

Limited exposure to developers*

BBVA has a manageable exposure to Spanish Real Estate

BBVA Peer 1

Peer4Peer 3

Peer2 Peer 5Peer 6

Perr 7Peer 9

Peer 8

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%Foreclosed and purchased assets over domestic

lending

Deve

lope

rs o

ver D

omes

tic L

endi

ng

* Figures as of June 2011 .Peers: Bankinter, Santander, Banesto, Caixa, Bankia, Popular, Unimm, Sabadell, Caja España,

BBVA exposure to real estate amounts to 9% of total domestic lending vs. 18% Spanish financial system average

RiskRisk

Page 20: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

20

7.0 7.03.2

14.2

3.7

1.9

2.1

0 .70 .6

RE Exposure: € 21.2 Bn

Developers

Foreclosed assets

Foreclosed assets

NPLs

Substandard

Problematic Assets: € 12.8 Bn Provisions after RD: € 6.4 Bn

Foreclosed assets

NPLsSubstandard

Generic

BBVA: Limited impact of new provisions

2012 P&L net Impact of new

provisions: €1.4 Bn

RiskRisk

€ 4 Bn

Page 21: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

21

BBVA real estate exposure as of December 31st, 2011

Land Housing under development

Finished housing

Others and with personal

guarantee

TOTAL Exposure

TOTAL REAL ESTATE (€ Bn) 6.8 2.8 10 .1 1.5 21.2

Performing Real Estate developers 1.6 1.6 4.6 0.6 8.4

Problematic Loans and Assets 5.2 1.2 5.5 0.9 12.8

Doubtful 1.4 0.6 1.4 0.4 3.7Substandard 0.8 0.3 0.9 0.1 2.1Foreclosures 3.0 0.4 3.2 0.4 7.0

Note: Finished housing foreclosures include foreclosed housing from households.

Page 22: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

22

A high increase of problematic real state assets coverage after the implementation of the new rule

31 2823

42

28

6255

3747 50

Land Housing underdevelopment

Finished housing Others (1) Total exposure

Current coverage New R.D. coverage

Real state assets coverage (%)

(1) Others and with personal guarantee

Page 23: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

23

Resilient earnings despite highly complex scenarios …

We maintain our ability to generate earnings despite the depth and duration of the crisis

4.015 4.606

2010 2011

Net attributable profitBBVA Group (€m)

€3bn after USA impairment

-12.8%

EarningsEarnings

* Excluding corporate activities and USA impairment

• Mexico & South America: growth

• Spain: resilience and opportunity

• USA: transformation

• Eurasia: growing contribution

Page 24: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

24

… Supported by a suitable diversified portfolioEarningsEarnings

Net atributable profit by geographical areas (Bn euros)

CAGR 11-09 -30% +9% +17% +47% +70%

Page 25: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

25

Decentralized management of liquidity and capital

Conservative risk culture

Retail focused business model, well balanced geographically

Resilient earnings stream supporting strong capital base

A robust business modelBusiness modelBusiness model

Page 26: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

26

Rating downgrades mainly linked to sovereign decisions …

Dec-10S&P: AA / Moody’s: Aa2 / Fitch:

AA-

TodayS&P: A / Moody’s: Aa3 / Fitch: A

NPA ratio

Dec-11Dec-11Dec-10Dec-10

Risk premium

ROA

Core capital

Improving from Dec-10

Improving from Dec-10

Better profitabilityindicators than peers

Dec-11 core capitalhigher than a year ago

A healthier financial profile, but lower ratings

Net Att. profit

4.1%

1.3%

0.9%

8.5% (2)

4.6 bn Resilient trend in complex environment

(1) Excluding one-offs. (2): Pro-forma including Garanti acquisition. (Core Capital reported: 9.6%);

4.0%

1.2%

0.8% (1)

10.3%

4.0 bn (1)

Page 27: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

27

… but the markets is recognizing the value of BBVA’s franchise

912182224253031

35374144

12257

33

Peer 14Peer 13Peer 12Peer 11

Peer 10Peer 9Peer 8Peer 7BBVA

Peer 6Peer 5Peer 4Peer 3Peer 2Peer 1

Market Cap. (1)BBVA Group vs. Peer Group

(1) 24th February

Peer Group: BARCL, BNPP, CASA, CMZ, CS, DB, HSBC, ISP, LBG, RBS , SAN, SG, UBS, and UCI .

Price / Tangible book value (1)

1,05

1,271,15

1,04

0,790,74

0,700,700,680,64

0,590,460,450,430,40Peer 14

Peer 13Peer 12Peer 11

Peer 10Peer 9Peer 8Peer 7Peer 6Peer 5Peer 4Peer 3BBVA

Peer 2Peer 1

Page 28: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

28

Contents

1

Why BBVA is better placed in the current challenging environment?

Conclusions3

BBVA overview

2

Page 29: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

29

Conclusions: BBVA resilient in any scenario and able to absorb the impact of the new regulation

Liquidity

Earnings

Risk

Capital Strong position to comply regulatory requirements

Comfortable position entering 2012

Stable indicators

Resilient and diversified

Business model

A robust business model

Page 30: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

30

Annex

Page 31: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

31

BBVA: a diversified funding structure

Securitisations9%

Preferred + subordinated

7%

ST funding (1)10%

Other LT1% Senior debt

25%

Covered bonds49%

Outstanding wholesale funding €85 bn

Last data available(1) € CP + US CP + promisory notes

Page 32: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

32

BBVA’s M/LT wholesale funding maturities

11

17

13

7

22

2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015

3

9 8

4

17

2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015

6 7

3 3 2

2012 2013 2014 2015 >2015

Total outstanding (€bn)

Covered bonds (€bn) Senior debt (€bn)

Last data available

Page 33: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

33

Public sector covered bonds and collateral information

Basque Country 4%

Rest 18% (1)

Canary Islands 4%

Catalonia 23%

Andalucia 16%

Asturias 4%

Madrid11 %C.Valenciana 11%

Balearics 5%

Aragon 4%

GEOGRAPHIC BREAKOUT

(1)Rest includes: Galicia, Castile Leon, Murcia, Extremadura, La Rioja, Cantabria, Navarre and Castilla la Mancha

Total amount of cedulas hipotecarias (mill €) 18.191 Total portfolio 25.207 OC% 139%No loans 9.711 WA Interest Rate (in %): 2,71%NPL ratio 0,16%

Regional Governments 38,3%Local Governments 27,5%Public regional Companies 14,5%Regional/Local Council 8,3%Government 6,5%Public local companies 5,0%

COLLATERAL DESCRIPTION

Breakout by type of institution

Page 34: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

34

Mortgage cover bonds and collateral information

Madrid 18%C.Valenciana

12%

Basque Country 4%

Galicia 4% Andalucia 18%

Catalonia 18%

Rest 14%

Castilla y Leon 4%

Canary Islands 5%

Balearics5%

GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION

Fixed rate assets 4%Variable rate assets 96%

INTEREST RATE

Unindexed LTV Ranges Total loan Balance (ex sec) mill € Number of loans0-40% 16.445 299.689

>40%-80% 50.230 364.543>80%-100% 7.559 37.035

>100% 1.240 7.370Total 75.474 708.637

1. Unindexed LTV Ranges Distributions

(1)Rest includes: Murcia, Extremadura, Asturias, La Rioja, Cantabria, Aragon, Navarre and Castilla la Mancha

Total "cedulas hipotecarias" (mill €) 44.701 Total mortgage loans 75.475 Eligible portfolio (mill €) 56.048 OC (%) 169%OC (over eligible pool) (%) 125%Number of loans 708.637 Seasoning in months 56,17 Remaining term in months 242 WA Interest Rate 3,35%Average LTV (%) 41%NPL ratio 6,72%

COLLATERAL DESCRIPTION

Page 35: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

35

Cover pool breakdown

Residential mortgagesTotal mortgage loans (ex securitisations) mill € 55.014Number of loans 662.952Average Loan (€) 80.859Seasoning in months 59,97Remaining term in months 269Average LTV 47%Npl ratio 3,19%

Unindexed LTV Ranges Total loan Balance (ex sec) mill € Number of loans0-40% 10.619 277.559

>40%-80% 36.975 342.213>80%-100% 6.275 35.967

>100% 1.145 7.213Total 55.014 662.952

1. Unindexed LTV Ranges DistributionsUnindexed LTV Ranges Total loan Balance (ex sec) mill € Number of loans

0-40% 5.826 22.130>40%-80% 13.255 22.330>80%-100% 1.284 1.068

>100% 95 157Total 20.460 45.685

1. Unindexed LTV Ranges Distributions

COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE POOLRESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE POOL

Fixed rate Assets 2%Variable rate Assets 98%

3. Interest rate

Commercial mortgagesTotal mortgage loans (ex securitisations) mill € 20.460Number of loans 45.685Average Loan Balance (€) 483.299Seasoning in months 46,05Remaining term in months 169Average LTV (%) 32%Npl ratio 6,62%

Fixed rate Assets 9%Variable rate Assets 91%

3. Interest rate

Page 36: BBVA, better placed in the current environment · PDF fileRisk of loosing global regulatory ... Sustainable dividend policy: €0.42 DPS remains the floor ... Bankinter, Santander,

36

BBVA, better placed in the current environment

March 2012