bbw model
DESCRIPTION
DCF on Build a bearTRANSCRIPT
October 3, September 27, Q3 2015 2014 2015
(Unaudited) (Unaudited) D&A 12262Current assets: Capex -11645Cash and cash equivalents $ 37,146 $ 40,451 Inventories 55,591 45,712 Receivables 8,053 10,144 Prepaid expenses and other curre 16,651 12,188 q3Deferred tax assets 1,669 998 NWC 2015
Total current assets 119,110 109,493 44,303
Change (7,222)Property and equipment, net of a 60,090 61,031 Other intangible assets, net 1,211 365 Other assets, net 2,893 3,976 Total Assets $ 183,304 $ 174,865
LIABILITIES AND STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITYCurrent liabilities:Accounts payable $ 29,927 $ 28,369 Accrued expenses 14,197 13,145 Gift cards and customer deposits 28,048 25,869 Deferred revenue 2,635 4,173 Deferred tax liability - 856 Total current liabilities 74,807 72,412
Deferred franchise revenue 782 1,004 Deferred rent 12,327 13,716 Other liabilities 1,111 1,367
Q3 fy fy fy2014 2012 2013 2014
13385 21422 19216 18128-5604 -16633 -19055 -10790
FY FYq3 2013 2014
2014 2013 2014 30,353 46,691
37,081 Total current assets 121,083 145,778 (16,338)Change (decrease)(Increase)
Total current liabili 90,730 99,087
Q3 September 27,
2014 Revenues:Net retail sales $ 85,561 Franchise fees 558 Commercial revenue 542 Total revenues 86,661
Costs and expenses:Cost of merchandise sold - retail 48,146 Cost of merchandise sold - commercial 278 Gross Profit 38,237 Gross Margin 44.1%
Operating Costs:
Selling, general and administrative 36,217 EBIT 2,020
Interest expense (income), net (38)
EBT 2,058 Income tax expense 238
Tax rate 11.6%
Net income $ 1,820 Net Margin 2.1%
Shares used in computing common per share amounts:Basic 16,971,416 Diluted 17,132,206
EBIAT 1,782
Q3 October 3,
2015 Revenues:
$ 84,303 Net retail sales 525 Franchise fees 795 Commercial revenue
85,623 Total revenues-1.2%
Costs and expenses: 46,117 Cost of merchandise sold
551 Gross Profit 38,955 Gross Margin
45.5%Operating Costs:Selling, general and administrative
37,643 Goodwill impairment 1,312 EBIT
EBIT Margin (56)
Interest expense (income), net
1,368 301 EBT
22.0% Income tax expense (benefit)Tax rate
$ 1,067 1.2% Net income (loss)
Net Margin
16,670,358 Shares used in computing common per share amounts: 16,890,722 Basic
Diluted 1,011
EBIAT
FY FY FY 2012 2013 2014
$ 374,553 $ 373,173 $ 387,725 3,598 3,564 2,531 2,790 2,332 2,098
380,941 379,069 392,354
230,181 220,738 211,832 150,760 158,331 180,522
40.3% 42.4% 46.0%
165,516 160,708 164,445 43.45% 42.40% 41.91%
33,670 - - 131,846 160,708 164,445
34.6% 42.4% 41.9%
3 (259) 53 0
(48,429) (2,118) 16,024 866 (6) 1,662
-1.8% 0.3% 10.4%
$ (49,295) $ (2,112) $ 14,362 -12.9% -0.6% 3.7%
16,331,672 16,465,138 16,908,001 16,331,672 16,465,138 17,133,811
130,980 160,714 162,783
2012 2013 2014 LTM 2015 2016 2017 2018EuropeTraditional 56 58 58 58 60 62 64Non-Traditional 2 2 2 2 3 4 5North AmericaTraditional 287 283 253 253 254 255 256Non-Traditional 11 8 10 10 10 11 11
Europe Stores 58 60 60 60 63 66 69NA Stores 298 291 263 263 264 266 267Total Stores 356 351 323 323 327 332 336
(1.4%) (8.0%) (8.0%) (8.0%) (8.0%) (8.0%)
Sales $374,553 $373,173 $387,725 $386,467 $396,195 $402,253 $407,100 % Growth (0.4%) 3.9% (0.3%) 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% Franchise fees 3598 3564 2531 $2,784 $2,854.08 ### ###% Growth (0.9%) (29.0%) 10.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% % of Revenue 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Commercial revenue 2790 2332 2098 2097.9880223 $2,150.80 ### ###% Growth (16.4%) (10.0%) (0.0%) 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% % of Revenue 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Total $380,941 $379,069 $392,354 $391,349 $401,200 $407,335 $412,243
Avg. Rev Per Store $1,070 $1,080 $1,215 $1,212
2019 2020
66 686 7
257 25812 12
72 75269 270341 345
(8.0%) (8.0%)
$413,158 $418,004 1.5% 1.2% ### ###
1.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% ### ###
1.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5%
$418,377 $423,285
Perpetuity1 2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Net retail sales $ 374,553 $ 373,173 $ 387,725 $ 386,467 $ 396,195 $ 402,253 Franchise fees 3598 3564 2531 2784 2854.080777 2897.721156Commercial revenue 2790 2332 2098 2097.988022 2150.800031 2183.686881Total revenues $380,941 $379,069 $ 392,354 $ 391,349 $ 401,200 $ 407,335
COGS $ (227,610) $(218,236) $ (211,832) $ (219,155) $ (224,672) $ (228,108)% of Revenue (59.7%) (57.6%) (54.0%) (56.0%) (56.0%) (56.0%)
Gross Profit $ 153,331 $ 160,833 $ 180,522 $ 172,194 $ 176,528 $ 179,227 Gross Margin % 40.3% 42.4% 46.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0%
SG&A $ (165,516) $(160,708) $ (164,445) $ (160,453) $ (164,492) $ (167,007)% of Revenue 43.45% 42.40% 41.91% 41.0% 41.0% 41.0%
EBITDA $ 9,237 $ 19,341 $ 34,205 $ 31,308 $ 32,096 $ 32,587
EBIT $ (12,185) $ 125 $ 16,077 $ 11,740 $ 12,036 $ 12,220 EBIT Margin % -3.2% 0.0% 4.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Interest Expense
EBT $ (12,185) $ 125 $ 16,077 $ 11,740 $ 12,036 $ 12,220
Tax Rate 0.3% 10.4% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%Taxes $ (0.35) $ (1,667.50) $ (625.49) $ (641.23) $ (651.04)
EBIAT $ 124.22 $ 14,409.50 $ 11,114.98 $ 11,394.78 $ 11,569.01
D&A 21422 19216 18128 $ 19,567.45 $ 20,060.01 $ 20,366.74 % of Revenue 5.62% 5.07% 4.62% 5% 5% 5%
CapEx -16633 -19055 -10790 $ 15,653.96 $ 16,048.01 $ 16,293.39 4.37% 5.03% 2.75% 4% 4% 4%
Change in NWC -16338 $ (7,826.98) $ (8,024.01) $ (8,146.70)-4.16% 2% 2% 2%
FCF BuildEBIAT 11394.77677 11569.00883D&A $ 20,060.01 $ 20,366.74 CapEx $ (16,048.01) $ (16,293.39)Change in NWC $ (8,024.01) $ (8,146.70)FCF Build $7,383 $7,496
PV $7,171 $6,868
0.5 1.50.971285862 0.916307417
3 4 5 $10.87 2018 2019 2020 Terminal 16,385,392
$ 407,100 $ 413,158 $ 418,004 178,109,211 2932.633459 2976.273838 3011.186141 -387000002209.996362 2242.883212 2269.192693 139,409,211 $ 412,243 $ 418,377 $ 423,285
4.5 $ (230,856) $ (234,291) $ (237,039)
(56.0%) (56.0%) (56.0%) WACC 6%
$ 181,387 $ 184,086 $ 186,245 44.0% 44.0% 44.0%
$ (169,019) $ (171,535) $ (173,547)41.0% 41.0% 41.0%
$ 32,979 $ 33,470 $ 33,863 $ 34,709 2.50%
$ 12,367 $ 12,551 $ 12,699 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
$ 12,367 $ 12,551 $ 12,699
5.3% 5.3% 5.3% $ (658.88) $ (668.69) $ (676.53)
$ 11,708.39 $ 11,882.63 $ 12,022.01
$ 20,612.13 $ 20,918.85 $ 21,164.24 5% 5% 5%
$ 16,489.70 $ 16,735.08 $ 16,931.39 4% 4% 4%
$ (8,244.85) $ (8,367.54) $ (8,465.69) Multiple 154555.23 2% 2% 2%
11708.39448 11882.62654 12022.01219 $ 20,612.13 $ 20,918.85 $ 21,164.24 TEV - Multiple $187,423,051.80 $ (16,489.70) $ (16,735.08) $ (16,931.39) (38,700,000) $ (8,244.85) $ (8,367.54) $ (8,465.69) $148,723,051.80
$7,586 $7,699 $7,789 $9.08
$6,558 $6,278 $5,993
2.5 3.5 4.5 50.86444096 0.815510339 0.769349377