bcg india economic monitor - june 2021
TRANSCRIPT
COVID-19India Economic MonitorJune 2021 Update
1 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 active cases dipped in the 3rd week of Jun'21 after massively peaking in Apr-May'21
15,000,000
35,000,000
25,000,000
0
10,000,0005,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
20-Jan
Total cases
20-Oct
20-May
20-Dec
20-Ma
r
20-Nov
20-Apr
20-Feb
20-Jun
1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 1.1x 1.3x
1.7x1.15x
Deaths Active casesRecovered
Total cases
Active cases
Days Doubling Rate
Recovery Rate
Test Positivity Rate
Fatality Rate
Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW); covid19india.org; BCG analysis
Data as of 20 June
10M
302k
282
95.5%
6.2%
1.5%
9M
442k
186
93.6%
6.9%
1.5%
10.6M
189k
518
96.7%
5.6%
1.4%
142k
10.9M
626
97.2%
5.2%
1.4%
306k
11.5M
232
95.9%
5.0%
1.4%
2.02M
15.3M
49
85.6%
5.7%
1.2%
3.02M
26M
61
87.2%
8.1%
1.1%
727k
29.8M
383
96.2%
7.6%
1.3%
2 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
India administered ~0.26 Bn doses of COVID-19 Vaccine till the 3rd week of Jun'21
1st Dose21,88,73,616
2nd Dose5,00,86,783
Total Doses26,89,60,399INDIA
Chandigarh
Delhi
HimachalPradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
AndhraPradesh
Kerala
Lakshadweep
Dadra andNagar Haveli
Karnataka
Maharashtra
Andaman andNicobar Islands
Manipur
Nagaland
Meghalaya
Punjab
Rajasthan
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Jharkhand
WestBengal
Bihar
Sikkim
Chhattisgarh
Puducherry
TamilNadu
Gujarat
Goa
Mizoram
Tripura
Damanand Diu
Madhya Pradesh
Telangana
Odisha
Ladakh
Haryana
ArunachalPradesh
Assam
1. Calculated based on count of 2nd dose of vaccination divided by state/UT population as per Census 2011; Miscellaneous doses of ~3.2 Mn are not accounted for in this analysis.Source: Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW), MOSPI, BCG analysis
Beneficiaries vaccinatedS. No. State/UT % of population vaccinated1
1 Ladakh 28.04%2 Tripura 14.34%3 Lakshadweep 11.03%4 Sikkim 9.81%5 Delhi 9.15%6 Gujarat 7.78%7 Chandigarh 7.24%8 Uttarakhand 7.19%9 Kerala 7.15%
10 Goa 6.83%11 Himachal Pradesh 6.37%12 Daman & Diu 5.97%13 Arunachal Pradesh 5.74%14 Karnataka 5.11%15 Rajasthan 4.91%16 Mizoram 4.80%17 Maharashtra 4.78%18 Jammu & Kashmir 4.72%19 Chhattisgarh 4.71%20 West Bengal 4.54%21 Haryana 4.40%22 Puducherry 4.38%23 Odisha 4.17%24 A & N Islands 4.06%25 Telangana 3.90%26 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 3.54%27 Assam 3.21%28 Andhra Pradesh 3.13%29 Tamil Nadu 3.07%30 Punjab 3.02%31 Madhya Pradesh 2.81%32 Nagaland 2.67%33 Jharkhand 2.60%34 Meghalaya 2.53%35 Manipur 2.51%36 Uttar Pradesh 1.98%37 Bihar 1.91%
Data as of 18 June
3 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
3.6% of India’s population fully vaccinated as on 3rd week of Jun’21, lower than majority of G20 countries
Source: NYT Vaccination Tracker, BCG analysis
Country Doses administered (Mn) Vaccinated—first dose (%) Fully vaccinated (%)U.K. 74.58 65.0% 47.0%United States 318.58 53.0% 45.0%Germany 66.45 51.0% 31.0%Italy 46.02 52.0% 26.0%France 48.21 48.0% 25.0%Canada 32.19 67.0% 19.0%Turkey 42.61 34.0% 17.0%Mexico 40.03 22.0% 13.0%Brazil 86.96 30.0% 11.0%Russia 34.90 14.0% 11.0%Argentina 18.09 32.0% 8.2%South Korea 17.95 29.0% 7.8%Japan 31.59 18.0% 7.3%Indonesia 35.28 8.5% 4.5%India 274.29 16.0% 3.6%South Africa 2.14 3.7% 0.8%
Select G20 countries
Data as of 20 June
4 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Executive Summary
Source: MoHFW, POSOCO, MOSPI, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, RBI, GST Network, NPCI, NETC, Ministry of Railways, AAI, JNPT, AIOCD, mFMS, Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, SIAM, CMIE, IRDAI, Ministry of Finance, GST Council, Ministry of Rural Development, Analyst reports, BCG analysis
Trends across key economic indicators
• Industrial Activity: Both fuel & daily average power consumption trended below pre-COVID levels in May'21; Indices of industrial activity (IIP & ICI) took a nosedive from the previous month in Apr'21
• Trade: Merchandize trade gap improved in May'21 vs. May'19 & previous month on account of decline in merchandize imports; Services exports & imports neared Apr'19 levels in Apr'21
• Logistics: E-way bills & FASTag transaction volumes fell from the previous month in May'21; Air freight traffic remained below pre-COVID levels in Apr'21• Financial Services: Aggregate deposits & bank credit witnessed unwavering growth in Apr'21; Both the value & volume of UPI transactions logged a slight
decline for second consecutive month after reaching a record high in Mar'21• Sector-wise Impact: Auto sales dwindled by 55% on a MoM basis in May'21, hinting at a slowdown owing to the second wave; Cement production inched below
pre-COVID levels in Apr'21 while steel consumption growth exceeded pre-COVID levels in May'21; Life insurance premium recovered in May'21 after falling in the previous month, though remained below May'19 levels, while non-life insurance premium fell & hit pre-COVID levels in May'21
• Macroeconomic Indicators: GST collections fell vs. previous month, though remained above the 1 Tn mark in May'21; Both the count & value of Govt. tenders exceeded pre-COVID levels; Gross fiscal deficit narrowed in Apr'21 vs. Mar'21
• Sentiment: Both rural & urban consumer sentiments remained at low levels in May'21, rural sentiment marginally better than urban sentiment; Both Manufacturing & Services PMI fell vs. previous months, Services PMI contracted below the 50 point mark showing increasing signs of strain as the pandemic intensifies
India's GDP grew by 1.6% YoY in Jan-Mar'21 albeit contracted by 7.3% YoY in FY21. Services growth remained muted while growth inindustrial sector was primarily driven by construction in Jan-Mar'21 vs. previous quarter. High frequency indicators reflected the impact of second wave of the pandemic in May'21. WPI reached an all time high & CPI spiked beyond 6%. MGNREGA employment demand spiked, while actual jobs provided fell, leading to a large demand-supply gap. Several sectors such as auto, cement & life insurance contracted below pre-COVID levels in Apr-May'21. UPI transactions logged a slight decline in May'21 for the second consecutive month after reaching a record high in Mar'21. Merchandize trade gap improved in May'21 on account of a decline in imports. Services PMI contracted below the 50 point mark for the first time in 2021. Analyst forecasts indicate GDP growth of 8.3%-12.8% YoY for FY22.
Note: 2019 data has been considered as pre-COVID level to assess recovery trends
5 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Summary: Most indicators in May'21 exhibited contraction with select indicators witnessing marginal growth vs. May'19 levels
Source: POSOCO, PPAC, MoSPI, RBI, Ministry of Comm. and Industry, GST Network, Ministry of Railways, JNPT, AAI, NPCI, JPC, Ministry of Steel, SIAM, CMIE, mFMS, IRDAI, AIOCD, American Chemistry Council, GST Council, Ministry of Finance, Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Rural Development, Projects Today, Bloomberg, NSE, BSE, IHS Markit, BCG analysis
Absolute YoY delta comparison of 2021 month-wise data vs. pre-COVID 2019 levels (for respective month)
Industrial Activity
Power Consumption MU -7% -10% -9% 2% -10%
Petroleum Consumption MT -3% -1% -5% -7% -21%
Index of Industrial Prod. Index -1% -1% 0% 0% NA
Trade
Services Export USD -4% 6% 14% -3% NA
Services Import USD -8% 8% 10% -13% NA
Merchandize Export USD 4% 4% 5% 17% 8%
Merchandize Import USD 1% 10% 10% 10% -15%
Logistics
E-Way Bills Generated Mn 24% 27% 30% 12% -30%
Railway Freight Originated MT 12% 12% 9% 10% NA
JNPT Container Traffic TEUs 6% 12% 12% 4% 1%
Air Freight kT -12% -9% -8% -4% NA
Air Passenger Traffic Mn -46% -39% -40% -53% NA
Rail Passengers Booked Mn -67% -55% -56% -69% NA
Financial Services
UPI Transactions Mn 292% 297% 280% 238% 222%Total Bank Credit INR 14% 14% 12% 13% NA
Total Bank Deposits INR 23% 23% 20% 22% NA
1
2
3
4
Sector-wise Impact
Cement Production MT -1% 2% -1% -4% NA
Steel Sales MT 22% 17% -2% -2% 6%
Passenger Vehicle Sales k -4% -2% -8% 0% -58%
Tractor Sales k 19% 42% 65% 16% -2%
Two-wheeler Sales k -2% -5% 10% -20% -65%
Fertilizer Sales MT 15% 15% -23% 40% NA
Gross Premium (Life) INR 23% 23% 16% -2% -30%
Gross Premium (Non-Life) INR 15% 22% 9% 9% 1%
Pharma. Sales INR 13% 14% 21% 13% NA
Chemical Production Index Index 7% 6% 6% 3% NA
Macroeconomic Indicators
Total GST Collection INR 17% 16% 17% 24% 2%
MGNREGA Jobs Demand HHs -88% -86% -87% 21% 10%
MGNREGA Jobs Provided HHs -88% -87% -88% -7% -22%
No. of Tenders Announced k 59% 38% 102% 232% 82%
Sentiment
India VIX Index 48% 54% 20% 5% 5%
PMI (Manufacturing) Index 57.7 57.5 55.4 55.5 50.8
PMI (Services) Index 52.8 55.3 54.6 54 46.4
5
6
7
Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar Apr Indicator Unit Jan Feb Mar AprMay May
6 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
GDP Deep-Dive2
Economic Indicators1
7 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
May-21May-20
6
May-19 Sep-19
4
Jan-210
Jan-20 Sep-20
2
3.3
3.4
3.63.9
3.74.0 3.7
3.2
3.23.4
3.6
3.2 3.33.6
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.6 3.5
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.3
3.33.7
3.5
2.8
3.8
3.8
3.6
-5%
May-20Jan-20Sep-19 May-21May-19 Sep-20 Jan-215
10
15
20
17.418.518.3
19.218.0
17.1
19.6
16.2
14.417.3
18
18.9
18.7
18.1
16.1
15.915.3
15.6
17.317.8
17.9
18.6
18.015.5 17.0 15.1
9.4
17.7
18.5 18.8
-11%
Daily Average Power Consumption Volume ('000s MUs)
Consumption of Petroleum Products (in MMT)1
1. Petroleum products include LPG, Naphtha, MS, ATF, SKO, HSD, LDO, Lubricants & Greases, FO & LSHS, Bitumen, coke as reported (provisional) by Petroleum Planning & Analysis CellSource: Power System Operation Corporation, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Dept. for Promotion of Industry & Internal Trade, PPAC, BCG analysis
Daily avg. power consumption fell below May'19 levels in May'21
Fuel consumption remained below 2019 levels in May'21
CAGR
CAGR
Industrial Activity 1
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
Jan-19
Jan-19
8 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
IIP (Index of Industrial Production)1
ICI (Index of Core Industries)2
1
134
128144
127135
129
132
126
123
124
129
135
137
134
11790
108
118
117
124
130
127
137
137
130146
127120
Jan-19 Oct-19 Apr-20Jul-19Apr-19 Oct-20Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Apr-210
60
180
130
54
0%
135
126
147131
137
133
133
129
121
127
129
136 137
134
133
108
116
123
120
121
127
128
136
139
129
149
127
Oct-20Jan-19 Apr-19 Apr-20Oct-19Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
120
Apr-210
60
180
81
132
-2%
1. Index of Industrial Production (IIP) shows the growth rates in different industry groups (comprises of Mfg. (78% weightage), Mining (14%), Electricity (8%))2. Index of Core Industries (ICI) measures performance of production in 8 core industries (Coal, Crude, NG, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement & Electricity)
Indices of industrial activity (IIP & ICI) declined vs. previous months in Apr'21, albeit stabilized vs. Apr'19 levels
CAGR
CAGR
Industrial Activity
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
9 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
2
Merchandize Trade (USD Bn)
Services Trade (USD Bn)
1. Apr’1 Merchandize Import and Export numbers, Mar’21 Service Import and Export numbers are provisional as provided by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 15th Apr’21Source: RBI, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, BCG analysis
0May-19 May-20 Sep-20Jan-19
40
Sep-19
60
20
Jan-20 May-21Jan-21
2726
10
26
4337
2624
40
45
2226
41
19
27
3936
26
33
29
26 26
41
3025 23
40
27
40 37
17
38
27
41
28
38
242121
31
42
28
28
30
25
34 33
43
2234
48
31
46
32
39
2826
41
6.28
Merchandize Exports Merchandize Imports
Merchandize trade gap improved in May'21 vs. Apr'21 & May'19 levels
Services trade surplus stabilized in Apr'21, nearing Apr'19 levels
Merchandize and Services Trade
Apr-19 Jan-21Jul-20
20
Oct-19Jan-19
10
Apr-21
30
Jul-190
Jan-20 Apr-20 Oct-20
1211
18
11
17
13
17 1717
10
18
1110
171918
11
11
19
12 12
10
1917
11
912
1012
1618
11
1818 18
11
20
13
18 16 17 17
10
10
10 10
19 19
11
20
13
18
1010
18 18
7.65
Services Exports Services Imports
Deficit in May'21
Surplus in Apr'21
10 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
E-way bills1 generated (Mn)
FASTag transaction volume (Mn)
3
1. E-Way bills are required to be generated at the time of transport of goods by every registered person if the value of the consignment exceeds INR 50,000 2. Railway Freight data not available for May'21Source: GST Network, NHAI, NPCI, Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, BCG analysis
E-way bills declined while FASTagtransactions recorded significant growth in May'21 vs. May'19 levels; Railway freight surpassed Apr'19 levels in Apr'21
51
50
55
53
54
37
52
51
52
53
53
55
57
57
41
9
43
48
49
57
64
58
64
63
64
71
59
38
May-20Jan-19 Sep-19 Jan-20May-19 Sep-20 Jan-210
May-21
100
5125
-16%
2524 27 26 28 27 27 28 29 31 3564
93
110
85
10
82
87 97
110
122
125
138
149
159
193
164
116
0
200
Jan-21Jan-19 Jan-20May-19 Sep-19 May-20 May-21Sep-203155
+106%
Avg. for 2019
Logistics
Avg. for 2019
Railway freight traffic originating (Mn Tons)
108
100
120
101
105
101
100
91
89
94
101
109
110
106
103
65
83
94
95
95
102
108
110
118
120
112
130
112
Jan-19
200
Apr-19 Jan-21Jul-19 Apr-20Oct-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Apr-210
102
+5%
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
CAGR
CAGR
11 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
JNPT Container Traffic ('000s TEUs1)
Air Freight (K Tons)
3
1. TEU refers to Twenty-foot equivalent unit equivalent to 20 shipping containers (20 feet long, 8 feet tall)Source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
JNPT traffic exceeded May'19 levels in May'21, however dipped slightly vs. previous months
Air freight remained below Apr'19 levels in Apr'21, also witnessed a slight dip vs. Mar'21
May-19 Sep-190Jan-19 May-21
400
Sep-20May-20Jan-20
600
Jan-21
200
438468
414
471
448 454
449431
434
460400
403
284
384
418
426
417410
410
275353
380414
423
528425
289
465344
462
+1%
167
168
195174 181
166176 171 166 170 168 172
164 162
133
4076
107123 128
144 148 142 150 144 146
172 166
104
111
113
102112
107
117
117
118
131
112
110
112
106
77
8 19
56
69
7695
111
101
107
102
99110 97
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-20
140
Apr-20Jul-19 Jan-20Oct-19 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-210
70
210
International Domestic
Logistics
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
12 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
728647
713
684
678 711 714
691 695
703 700 692 716677
-4 4 15 39122
190
239
288
316
212
Oct-20Apr-20Jan-19 Apr-19 Oct-19Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Apr-210
300
600
900
437
-822
62
696
-44%
Air Passengers (Mn)
Railway Passenger Bookings (Mn)
3
1.Railway passenger bookings data not available for May'21Source: Ministry of Railways, CEIC data, Airport Authority of India, BCG analysis
Air passenger traffic remained significantly below 2019 levels in Apr'21
Rail passenger traffic saw double digit negative CAGR in Apr'21 vs. Apr'19 levels
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
6
6
7
6
53
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
24
22
22
21
23
23
23
23
22
24
25
25
25
15
1
4 46
810
13
14
15
15
15
11
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jul-20 Oct-20Apr-20Jan-20 Jan-21 Apr-210
10
20
30
01
24
00 0
International Domestic
CAGR
Logistics
Avg. for 2019
13 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Total deposits value aggregated for all banks (INR Tn)
Total credit outstanding value aggregated for all banks (INR Tn)
4
Source: RBI DBIE, BCG analysis
Aggregate deposits exhibited steady growth in Apr'21 vs. Apr'19 levels
Aggregate credit stabilized, exceeding Apr'19 levels in Apr'21
Jul-19 Jul-20 Oct-20Oct-19
150
Apr-19
100
Jan-20 Jan-21Jan-190
50
Apr-21Apr-20
101
96100 102
97 103
10999
97
97
9897
98
101
104
103
102 103
108102 104
105
106
107 109
9694
94
98
+7%
Jan-21Oct-20 Apr-21Apr-20Jan-20Jul-190Jan-19
140
Apr-19
210
Jul-20Oct-19
70
128
149145
121
137 139126 133
133
126
127 129
130
136131
131
142 148139 126
142
143120 151
153126
125
144
145
+11%
Financial Services
CAGR
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
14 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
UPI Transactions Value (in INR Tn)
UPI Transactions Volumes (in Bn)
4
Source: NPCI
UPI transaction value and volume witnessed a slight decline in May'21 vs. Apr'21, albeit continued to exceed 2019 levels
1.1 1.3
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.2
2.1
1.5
2.22.6
2.9
3.0
3.3
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.3
4.3
5.0
4.9
4.9
Sep-19Jan-19 May-21
6
3
Sep-20May-19 May-20Jan-20 Jan-210
9
1.1
+80%
0.70.7
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.32.7
2.6
2.5
Jan-19 Jan-21May-19 Sep-20Sep-19 Jan-20 May-21May-200
2
4
6
+86%
Financial Services
CAGR
CAGR
15 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Sep-19 May-20May-19 Sep-20 May-21
Jan-19Steel consumption exceeded May'19 levels in May'21
Cement production fell slightly below Apr'19 levels in Apr'21
Consumption of Long Steel (in MMT)
5Sector-wise Impact
Source: Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Livemint, CMIE, BCG Analysis
4.3
4.1
4.3
3.3
4.7
4.5
4.5
5.0
4.4
4.6
3.8
4.8
4.5
4.4
4.1
0.6
3.5
4.0
4.5
4.7
4.5
5.2
5.7
5.5
5.8
5.2
3.5
5.7
May-20May-190
Jan-21Sep-20Sep-19 Jan-20 May-21
5
10
2.7
4.4
+10%
Consumption of Flat Steel (in MMT)
4.2
4.3
5.2
4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.2
3.9
3.8
4.7
4.2
3.2
0.5
2.53.8
4.0
3.8
4.4
4.4
4.5
4.9
4.0
4.1
3.9
3.73
0Jan-20 Jan-21
6
2.1
4.18
-6%
Cement Production (in MT)
29.9
28.5
33.1
29.2 28.6
28.3
28.0
24.4 25.1 26.2
27.2
30.5
31.4
30.724.8
22.4
26.4 24.2
20.9
24.2 27.0 25.3
28.3
29.6 29.032.9
27.9
Apr-19 Jul-190
Apr-20Oct-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21Oct-20 Apr-21
15
30
45
4.3
28
-2%CAGR
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
Jan-19
Jan-19
16 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Jan-19
Jan-
19
Apr-1
9
Apr-2
1
Oct
-19
Apr-2
0
Oct
-20
Jan-19 Apr-19 Apr-20Oct-19 Oct-20 Apr-21
Two-wheeler sales (’0000 units)
5Sector-wise Impact
Passenger vehicles sales (’000 units)
Three-wheeler sales (’000 units)Tractor sales (’000 units)
106
115
92
91
92
96
105
111
112
104
95
10484
67
7
36
33
54
61
69
61
61
67
69
58
60
46
Sep-20 Jan-21May-19 May-20Sep-19 Jan-20 May-210
50
100
150
98
20
101
-29%
Passenger vehicles, 2W & 3W sales plunged sharply below May'19 levels; Tractor sales declined vs. previous months, nearing May'19 levels in May'21
Figures represent wholesale numbers (including exports).1. Tata Motors data is available for Apr-June only, BMW, Mercedes and Volvo Auto data is not available; Source: SIAM, CMIE, Press search, BCG analysis
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019Avg. for
2019
CAGRCAGR
327
323
360
305
286
266
251
259
276322
311
289
306307
179
4 49
130217
254
351303
310
314
317
331
120
Jan-20Sep-19May-19 May-20 Sep-20
400
0Jan-21 May-21
200
311304
298
-35%
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
Jan-20May-19
50
Sep-19 May-20 Sep-20 May-21
100
Jan-21
125
025
7552
12
54
51
85
62
6582
44
92 95
114
6059 35
65
99
729073
124
8872
6771 6365
5771
116
-1%
May-19 Jan-20
200
Sep-20Sep-19 May-21May-20 Jan-21
300
0
100
202240
135
195
182
181
38
121
196
71
205 187179165
161109
5
169 146
193
182
218242
185
182
193
184
171188
150
-41%CAGR
Jan-19 Jan-19
Jan-19Jan-19
17 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Chemical production remained steady in May'21 vs. previous months
Fertilizer sales recorded steady cyclical sales in Apr'21
1. Indian Chemical Production Index refers to a 3-month moving average figure for chemicals production with figure for 2012 as base figure (100)
2. Pharmaceutical Sales are updated quarterly3. Fertilizer Sales data not available for May'21Source: AIOCD (Total Sales), American Chemistry Council, Mobile Based Fertilizer Management System (mFMS), Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Press search, BCG analysis
5Sector-wise Impact
Indian Chemical Production Index1 (3mo. Moving avg.)
113
108
109
115
114
110
121
125
126
124
127
121
122
122
120
103
104
113
122
122
132
136
129
131
127
123
132
Oct-20Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jul-20Jan-20 Apr-20 Jan-21 Mar-210
200
118
+10%
CAGR
Fertilizer Sales (in lac tonnes)
Jul-19Apr-19 Apr-20
30
60
Apr-21Jan-20 Jan-21Oct-19
90
Jul-20 Oct-200
2549
53
58
64
5855
6252
44
45 50
3759
4663
5462
3565
64
59
66
42
5037
47
4055
+19%CAGR
Pharmaceutical Sales1 (INR Tn)
116
117
117
117
117
117
117
117
117
116
117
117
118
120
11585
87
103
113
117
120
122
124
124
124
121
120
Sep-20May-19Jan-19 Sep-19 May-21Jan-20 May-20 Jan-210
100
200
98117
+1%
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
Jan-19
Jan-19
18 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Life Insurance premium
Non-Life Insurance premium1
5
1. Non-Life Insurance includes Fire, Marine, Motor, Engineering, Health, Cop Insurance, Credit Guarantee, Aviation, Personnel accident and MiscellaneousSource: IRDAI, BCG Analysis
Life Insurance premium remained below May'19 levels in May'21
Non-life insurance premium dipped in May'21 vs. previous months, although reached May'19 levels
Sector-wise Impact
Jan-19 Sep-20Jan-20 Jan-21May-19
40
Sep-19 May-20 May-210
2022
17 1923
37
18
10
1822
1924
20
17
25
21
25
7
13
29
21
27 25
2322.28
24
43
26
1014
32
-16.1%
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
New Business Premium (INR '000 Cr)
May-21Sep-200
30
Sep-19Jan-19
10
May-19 Jan-20 Jan-21May-20
20
12
1616
1618
16
12 14
16
15
17
1417
11
16
14
18
14
1816
15
1819
23
161613
24
13
17
+0.3%
Gross Domestic Premium Income (INR '000 Cr)
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
19
Central Govt. Revenue & Expenditure (INR Tn)
Total GST Collections1 (INR Tn)
1. GST Collections include all components: CGST, SGST, IGST, CessSource: Ministry of Finance, GST Council, BCG analysis
Fiscal deficit narrowed in Apr'21 after widening significantly in the previous month
GST collections remained above the INR 1 Tn mark, however dropped below Apr'21 levels in May'21
(based on data from Controller General of Accounts, Ministry of Finance)
1.01.1
3.3
1.00.5
1.4
1.1
2.22.2
1.00.8
1.7
1.01.5
3.2
0.3
0.2
1.1 0.81.4
1.91.4 1.2
2.91.6
1.3
2.8
1.5
1.71.9
1.3
2.5 2.62.1 2.3 2.3
3.11.7 1.7
2.91.6
2.0
2.2 3.1
2.0
3.02.4
1.92.3
1.8
2.43.7
2.4
3.0
6.9
2.3
8
Oct-20Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-200
Apr-20Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
2
4
6
0.79
Receipts Expenditure
1.03
0.97
1.071.14
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
0.92
0.95
1.03
1.03
1.11
1.05
0.98
0.32
0.62
0.91
0.87
0.86
0.95
1.05
1.05
1.15
1.20
1.13
1.24 1.41
1.03
1.5
Jan-19 May-20May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-210.0
0.5
1.0 1.01
+1%
(based on data from GST Council)
Avg. for 2019
Macroeconomic Indicators 6
CAGR
Fiscal Deficit in Apr'21
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
20
MGNREGA Work Demand (households, in Mn)
MGNREGA Employment Provided (households, in Mn)
MGNREGA refers to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee ActSource: Ministry of Labor & Employment, Ministry of Rural Development, The Indian Express, Outlook India, LiveMint, BCG analysis
MGNREGA work demand exceeded May'19 levels while employment provided sharply declined in May'21 vs. May'19
21
21
20
21
25
2618
15
14
13
15
17
19
22
21
13
37
45
32
24
24
24
23
27
26
29
26
27
28
Jan-19 May-20May-19 Jan-21Sep-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-210
20
40
60
19
+5%
18 18 16 1721 22
1512 12 11 13 14 16
1916
11
3339
28
20 20 20 1821 21 23
20 21
17
May-20Jan-20Sep-19Jan-19 May-19 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-210
20
40
60
16
-12%
Macroeconomic Indicators 6
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
CAGR
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
21
Both count & value of Govt. tenders fell after spiking in early 2021, although significantly surpassed May'19 levels in May'21
6Macroeconomic Indicators
Count of tenders announced by central and state govts (K)
Source: Project Today database, BCG analysis
Jan-20May-19Jan-19 May-21Sep-190
Sep-20May-20 Jan-21
2
4
6
1.9
4.23.6
2.9
0.7
2.8
2.5
3.9
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.51.2
1.61.2
2.8
2.5
1.4
2.7
0.8
1.7 2.1
4.6
1.8
3.6
3.8
1.62.72.9
3.3
+35%CAGR
Value of tenders announced by central and state govts (INR Tn)
Jan-21
1.5
May-20 May-21Jan-19 Sep-19 Sep-200.0
May-19
0.5
1.0
Jan-20
0.470.60
0.18
1.12
1.18
0.31
0.90
0.32 0.26
0.74
0.55
0.480.52
0.58
0.650.87
0.55
0.46
0.60
0.440.58
0.92
0.52
0.89
0.50 0.450.55
0.57
0.31
0.46
+18%CAGR
Avg. for 2019
Avg. for 2019
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
22
WPI accelerated to a new high of 12.9% in May'21
CPI rose above the 6% mark in May'21 for the first time in 6 months
6Macroeconomic Indicators
Wholesale Price Index (WPI)1
Consumer Price Index (CPI)2
Monthly inflation rate (%
)
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.2
1.20.3 0.0
0.6
2.8
3.5
2.3
0.4
-1.6-3.4
-1.8
-0.3 0.41.3 1.3
2.3 2.0 2.5 4.8
7.9
10.512.9
Jan-19 May-20May-19 Jan-21Sep-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21-5
0
5
10
15
2.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.34.0
4.65.5
7.4
7.66.6
5.8
7.2
6.3
6.2
6.7
6.7
7.3
7.6
6.9
4.6
4.1
5.0
5.54.2
6.3
0May-20Jan-19 May-19 May-21Sep-19 Jan-20 Jan-21Sep-20
2
4
6
8
1. WPI measures and tracks the changes in the price of goods in the stages before the retail level – that is, goods that are sold in bulk and traded between entities or businesses instead of consumers. It is calculated as YoY increase in prices of the commodities2. CPI is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care. It is calculated as YoY increase in prices of the commoditiesSource: MOSPI, CMIE, BCG Analysis
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
23
May'21 repo and reverse repo rate remained unchanged from the previous months in May'21
MCLR remained at the same level in May'21
6Macroeconomic Indicators
Reserve bank’s policy rates (%)
1. MCLR: Minimum interest rate at which scheduled commercial banks can lend to customers (based on incremental cost of funds). 2. Base Rate: Minimum rate set by the Reserve Bank of India below which banks are not allowed to lend to its customers 3. Repo Rate: Interest rate at which the RBI lends short term funds to licensed commercial banks 4. Reverse Repo Rate: Interest rate which the RBI borrows money from commercial banks. Source: CMIE, RBI DBIE
MCLR1 of scheduled commercial banks(Median rate on one-year borrowings, in %)
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.4
9.4
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.2
9.1
9.1
9.1
9.0
8.9
8.8
8.6
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.36.5 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.05.8 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2
4.4 4.44.0 4.0 4.0
6.3
6.0 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.94.0
3.83.4
3.4
3.4
Jan-21Jan-19 May-20May-193
Sep-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21
6
9
12
Policy rate %
8.757.85
7.288.68
7.82
7.32
9.45 9.088.45
6.955.96
Jan-193
May-19 May-20Sep-19 Jan-20 Sep-20 May-21Jan-21
6
9
12
MCLR (%)
Total Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks
Repo rateBase rate Reverse Repo rate
8.6
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
24
INR remained range bound at ~73/dollar in May'21
Forex reserves continued to trend upwards, reaching USD 598 Bn in May'21
Source: CMIE, RBI
6Macroeconomic Indicators
Monthly Exchange Rate (INR/USD)
70.7
71.2
69.5
69.469.8
69.4
68.8
71.2
71.3
71.0
71.5
71.2
71.3
71.5
74.4
76.2
75.7
75.7
75.0
74.7
73.5
73.5
74.2
73.6
73.1
72.8
72.8
74.5
73.3
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 May-21Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20
70
Jan-21
75
80
70.3
Forex reserves ($ Bn)
Avg. for 2019
May-20May-19Jan-19 Sep-20Sep-19
200
400
Jan-20 May-21Jan-21
600
398
575
399
412
542
422
535
429
581434
443 457 482
471 476
579
493
428
507541 561
590
585
427
598
419479
430 451588
Avg. for 2019
25 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
1. Denotes total inward FDI to India; 2. Apr’21 figures are provisionalNote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agenciesSource: CMIE
FDI inflows grew vs. previous months and Apr'20 levels in Apr'21, however remained below Apr'19 levels
Foreign Direct Investments1 ($ Bn)
4.0
2.53.2
5.54.1
7.6
4.7
2.8 3.04.1 3.7
5.56.2
4.04.9
1.30.7
0.1
4.3
18.7
4.14.8
8.07.1
3.9
-1.1
2.7
4.7
Mar
-19
Jan-
19
Jan-
21
Nov
-20
Feb-
19
Sep-
20
Jul-1
9
Apr-1
9
Sep-
19
May
-19
Aug-
19
Jun-
19
Jul-2
0
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
Apr-2
0
Feb-
20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
Dec
-20
Feb-
21
Mar
-21
Apr-2
12
$50 Bn2019
$63.6 Bn2020
$10.2 Bn2021
xx Annual (Calendar Year) FDI Inflows
6Macroeconomic Indicators
26 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
1. Apr'21 figures are provisionalSource: CMIENote: Past period data may vary from the previous versions of the Economic Monitor owing to restating of previous years’ data by the CMIE/reporting agencies
Foreign Institutional Investments fell into the negative territory in Apr'21, remaining below Apr'19 levels
Foreign Institutional Investments ($ Bn)
0.3
3.7
Aug-
19
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Apr-2
11
Sep-
20
Feb-
19
1.42.2
Jun-
19
May
-19
2.7
Mar
-19
1.2
Apr-1
9
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
-0.5
Dec
-19
Jan-
20
1.2
Feb-
20
-0.4
Mar
-20
Apr-2
0
9.3
Dec
-20
May
-20
Jun-
20
3.3
Jul-2
0
2.7
Aug-
20
Oct
-20
Nov
-20
Jan-
21
Feb-
21
6.0
1.9
Mar
-21
1.9
-1.5-0.5
2.0
0.31.7 1.9
-15.0
-1.8
0.7
5.6
11.1
8.7
-1.7
6Macroeconomic Indicators
xx Annual (Calendar Year) FIIs
$26 Bn2019
$15.4 Bn2020
$5.8 Bn2021
27 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
Note: The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a measure of the prevailing direction of economic trends in manufacturing and services sectors. The PMI is based on a monthly survey of supply chain managers across 19 industries, covering both upstream and downstream activity. Value >50 indicates possible expansion in the sector, and value <50 indicates recession.Source: IHS Markit, CMIE, Analyst Reports, BCG analysis
Both Manufacturing and Services PMI trended downwards in May'21, falling below May'19 levels; Services PMI contracted below the 50 point mark in May'21
Manufacturing PMI
Services PMI
Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions include domestic & foreign institutions and banks
53.9
54.3
52.6
51.8
52.7
52.1
52.5 51.4
50.6
51.2
52.7
55.3
54.5
51.8
27.4
30.8
47.2
46.0
52.056.8
58.9
56.3
56.4
57.7
57.5
55.4
55.5
50.8
Jan-19 May-21Jan-21May-19 Sep-20Sep-19 Jan-20 May-200
60
20
40
5051.4
Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contractionin the sector
52.2
52.5
52.0
51.0
50.2
49.6
53.8
52.4
48.7
49.2
52.7
53.3
55.5
49.3
5.4
12.6
33.7
34.2
49.8
54.1
53.7
52.3
52.8
55.3
54.6
54.0
46.4
May-19Jan-19 Sep-19 Jan-21Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 May-210
20
40
6057.5
41.850
Possible expansion
in the sector
Possible contractionin the sector
Manufacturing PMI fell below the global PMI levels of 56 in
May'21
7Sentiment–Mfg. & Services PMI
Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
28
Consumer sentiment remained below pre-COVID levels; Rural sentiment remained marginally above urban sentiment in May'21
Source: CMIE Consumer Pyramids SurveySample Size: 1.74L households in 90 cities and 969 villages surveyed over 4 monthsMethodology:Longitudinal survey: Same set of households surveyed in batches over timeScoring based on 5 questions:1. Perception of current well-being2. Expectations of future well-being3. Perceptions of current economic conditions of the country4. Perceptions of prospective economic conditions of the country5. Household’s propensity to spend on consumer durables
6Sentiment-Consumer Sentiment
Rural Consumer Sentiment Index
103
103
108
107
110
108
107
107
113
108
107
110
109
106
97
49
44
45
45
51
50
56
55
56
56
57
60
59
49
120
Jan-19 Jan-20 May-20 Jan-210
30
60
90
Sep-20May-19 Sep-19 May-21
Urban Consumer Sentiment Index
100
104
105
104
105
106
104
103
103
105
104
103
102
104
96
40
37
40
40
38
40
47
46
48
51
50
51
46
47
Jan-19
40
Jan-20 Jan-210
80
120
May-21May-19 Sep-19 May-20 Sep-20
29 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
BSE sectoral indices trended upwards across all sectors in May'21 vs. May'20
1. Growth rate vs. 02-Mar-20 2. The S&P BSE TECk index comprises constituents of the S&P BSE 500 that are classified as members of the media & publishing, information technology and telecommunications sector 3. CPSE- Central Public Sector Enterprises; Source: BSE, Bloomberg, BCG analysis
7Sentiment—BSE Sectoral Indices
0
-60
-40
-20
20
40
80
60
120
140
100
27-N
ov
29-Ja
n
02-M
ar
31-D
ec
30-Ju
n
29-M
ay
30-S
ep
Change (%)31
-Mar
30-A
pr
31-M
ay
26-F
eb
31-Ju
l
31-A
ug
30-O
ct
31-M
ar
30-A
pr
2020 2021
Descending order of performance1
Sector % ChangeMetal 133.87%
Basic Materials 100.66%Healthcare 82.86%
IT 82.12%Industrials 71.64%
Power 65.28%TecK 61.89%Infra 57.01%
Energy 56.39%BSEAUTO Index 52.52%
Utilities 49.17%Capital Goods 47.13%
BSE 500 44.71%Consumer discretionary 40.27%
Oil and Gas 33.16%PSU 32.57%CPSE 29.23%
Consumer Durables 28.55%Realty 26.18%Bankex 21.82%Finance 21.64%FMCG 20.29%
Telecom 15.03%
BSE Sectoral Indices
30 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days—figures represented are as of end of every month shown2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shownSource: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
Volatility dipped in May'21, nearing May'19 levels
Mutual fund AUM continued to grow in May'21 vs. May'19
India Volatility Index (VIX)1
Mutual Funds AUM2 (INR L Cr)
17
18
17
22
16
15
14
16
16
16
14
12
17
64
34
30
29
25
23
20
25
20
21
25
2821
23
17
May-21Jan-19
20
Jan-20
80
60
Jan-210
40
May-19 Sep-19 May-20 Sep-20
23
30
40
Jan-190
Jan-21Jan-20
10
20
May-19 May-21Sep-19 May-20 Sep-20
23.4
24.523.2
23.8
24.3
24.5 24.5
26.3
27.025.9
26.5
27.9
30.027.2
22.3
31.427.1
31.625.5
28.231.0
30.5
24.8 32.426.9
23.9 25.52527.5
33.1+13%
Mutual Funds AUM include investments from individuals (50.5%) & institutions (49.5%); institutions include domestic and foreign institutions and banks
CAGR
Sentiment – Stock Mkt. Transactions 7
Avg. for 2019
31 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
1. Volatility Index is a measure of market’s expectation of volatility over the near term; India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY50 Index Option prices providing the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days—figures represented are as of end of every month shown2. Mutual funds Assets Under Management (AUM) represented as recorded at end of every month shownSource: BSE, NSE, AMFI, BCG analysis
NSE & BSE transactions increased significantly in May'21 vs. May'19 & previous month
NSE Transactions (INR k Cr)
BSE Transactions (INR k Cr)
2,000
1,000
May-21Jan-19 Sep-20May-20May-190
500
Jan-21
1,500
Sep-19 Jan-20
666
639
1,568
797
697
640
788
596
710
1,375
1,006
753
834
906
682
1,351
1,3491,223
713
1,3371,449
1,627
805
1,331
1,099
700674
1,0001,283
1,399
+41%
50
Sep-20Jan-20
150
May-20Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 May-21
100
0Jan-21
4380
105
58
25
56
99
47
48
51
53
57
54
446
82
44
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e (IN
R) k
Cr
61
8393
7170 5065
104
145
113110
56 58
+39%
Tran
sact
ion
Valu
e (IN
R) k
Cr
7
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
CAGR
Avg. for 2019
Sentiment – Stock Mkt. Transactions
32 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
GDP Deep-Dive2
Economic Indicators1
33 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19
$2.4trillion
$2.6trillion
$2.7trillion
$2.9trillion
Note: Real GDP at 2011-12 base prices, converted from INR using 2011-12 exchange rates (Rs. 47.95); The numbers would differ from estimates from World Bank, IMF, etc. due to difference in the base year (2011-12 has been used as the base year)Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis
Real GDP grew by 1.6% YoY in Jan-Mar'21, marginally recovering from the previous quarter, however contracted by 7.3% in FY21 vs. FY20
xx Overall size of economy at the end of FY
GDPDEEP-DIVE
$3.0trillion
$2.8trillion
633673
733776
799813
500
600
700
800
Jan-Mar’19
Jan-Mar’17
Jan-Mar’16
Real GDP ($ Bn)
Jan-Mar’18
Jan-Mar’20
Jan-Mar’21
+5.8%+3.0%
+1.6%
34 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Consumption (Private & Govt.), investments & net exports improved in Jan-Mar'21 vs. Jan-Mar'20 levels
Source: CMIE, BCG AnalysisNote: Highlighted circles represents growth (green) or decline (yellow) compared to the previous year quarter (Jan-Mar'21 vs Jan-Mar'20)
I XC G M
-2.7%12.1% -0.7%
Y
3.0% -8.8%2.0%Jan-Mar2020
-8.0% -2.0%-11.2% -23.5 -18.0%-7.4%Jul-Sep 2020
13.8% 8.8%2.7% 28.3% 12.3%1.6%Jan-Mar2021
12.7% -47.7%-24.4% -26.2% -22.0%Apr-Jun2020
Quarterly growth %
change YoY
-41.0%
GDP Pvt. Consumption
Govt.Consumption
GrossInvestment Exports Imports
GDPDEEP-DIVE
3.0% -3.5%-2.8% -1.0% -5.0%0.5%Oct-Dec 2020
35 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Share of consumption (Private and Govt.) and investment in GDP remained consistent in Jan-Mar'21 vs. last 2 quarters
55.4% 56.8% 56.7% 60.2% 54.9% 55.4% 54.4% 58.3% 55.4%
34.9% 36.9% 34.0%34.4%
33.6%25.5% 33.7%
35.2% 37.6%
8.5% 12.2% 10.0%9.3%
16.4%
9.8% 11.7%
-1.9%
-1.1% -1.4%
-4.8% -3.6%-1.3%
0.1%11.0%
-2.5%
Jan-Mar’19 Apr-Jun’19
0.8%1.3%
Jul-Sep’19
-2.6%
Oct-Dec’19
4.7%
-2.2%
Jan-Mar’20
1.3%
Apr-Jun’20
10.1%1.6%
Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20
-3.4%
Jan-Mar’21
2.5% 0.2%
1. Statistical Discrepancy: taking the GDP from the production approach as the control total, gives the measure of the overall difference between the production approach and the expenditure approach followed for estimation.Note: This composition is basis Real GDPSource: CMIE, BCG Analysis, MOSPI
Private final consumption expenditure Government final consumption expenditure Discrepancies1Investments Net exports
GDPDEEP-DIVE
36 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 After two consecutive quarters of contraction, consumption (both Private and Govt.) moved to positive territory in Jan-Mar'21
Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis, RBI, Press articles
6.6 2.0 2.7
8.112.1
28.3
-25
-50
50
0
25
Jan-Mar’19 Apr-Jun’20
Final Consumption Expenditure, % change YoY
Jul-Sep’18 Oct-Dec’18 Apr-Jun’19 Jul-Sep’19 Oct-Dec’19 Jan-Mar’20 Jul-Sep’20 Oct-Dec’20 Jan-Mar’21
Private Government
GDPDEEP-DIVE
37 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Gross capital formation recorded double digit growth of 13.8% in Jan-Mar'21, evincing an uptick in investment momentum
Source: CMIE
5.3-0.7
13.8
-50
-25
0
25
Jan-Mar’19Oct-Dec’18
Gross Capital Formation, % change YoY
Jul-Sep’18 Apr-Jun’19 Jul-Sep’19 Jul-Sep’20Apr-Jun’20Oct-Dec’19 Jan-Mar’20 Oct-Dec’20 Jan-Mar’21
GDPDEEP-DIVE
38 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Industrial & Services sectors improved in Jan-Mar'21 vs. previous quarters; Agricultural sector growth was consistent in Jan-Mar'21 vs. last 3 quarters
52.7%
31.9%
15.5%
Jan-Mar’21
100%
Share inIndustry GVA
4.28%Agriculture
4.50%Industry
5.37%Services
Jan-Mar Qtr. CAGR1
over 2017-21
GDPDEEP-DIVE
3.1
7.9
1.50
-40
-60
-20
20
Jan-Mar’21
GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY
Jan-Mar’17
Jan-Mar’18
Jan-Mar’19
Jan-Mar’20
Agriculture, forestry & fishing Industry Services
1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'21/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'17)^(1/4)]-1 Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis
39 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Select sub-sectors (trade, hotels, transport, storage & communication) retarded overall growth of services in Jan-Mar'21 vs. previous quarter
-2.3
5.4
2.30
-60
-40
-20
20
Jan-Mar’19
Jan-Mar’17
Services GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY
Jan-Mar’18
Jan-Mar’20
Jan-Mar’21
Trade, hotels, transport, storage and communication
Community, social and personal servicesFinancial services, real estate and business services
38.7%
35.9%
25.4%
Jan-Mar’21
100%
Share inIndustry GVA
6.73%Community, social
and personal services
5.32%Financial services,
real estate andbusiness services
4.56%Trade, hotels,
transport, storage and communication
Jan-Mar Qtr. CAGR1
over 2017-21
GDPDEEP-DIVE
1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'21/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'17)^(1/4)]-1 Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis
40 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
COVID-19 Most industrial sub-sectors improved vs. previous quarters; Construction recorded double digit growth in Jan-Mar'21 vs. last quarter
-5.86.9
9.1
14.5
0
-20
20
-60
-40
Jan-Mar’17
Jan-Mar’18
Industry GVA Quarterly growth, % change YoY
Jan-Mar’19
Jan-Mar’20
Jan-Mar’21
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water supply and otherutility servicesConstruction
56.4%
28.4%
8.2%7.1%
Jan-Mar’21
100%
Share inIndustry GVA
6.97%Electricity, gas,
water supply and other utility services
-3.59%Mining and quarrying
3.69%Manufacturing
Jan-Mar Qtr. CAGR1
over 2017-21
GDPDEEP-DIVE
8.80%Construction
1. CAGR= [(Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'21/Value of GVA in INR Mn in Jan-Mar'17)^(1/4)]-1 Source: CMIE, BCG Analysis
41 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
India's FY22 GDP forecasted to grow at 8.3% to 12.8% YoY; Projections witnessed upward as well downward revisions in Apr-Jun'21
Source: Analyst reports, BCG analysis
7
India GDP growth forecast for FY22 (YoY,%)
8.5
9.5
9.6
9.9
10.0
10.8
11.0
13.0
Barclays
Goldman Sachs
Moody’s
Nomura
RBI
Fitch
India Ratings
S&P
10.1
10.5
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.6
13.5
ICRA
Nomura
IMF
Deutsche Bank
DBS
S&P
OECD
12.5
10.0
9.5
Moody’s
8.3
CII
9.3
World Bank
Barclays
9.5
S&P
9.5RBI
ICRA
9.9OECD
SBI
10.1India Ratings
10.4
IMF
12.8Fitch
8.5
8.5% to 13.0%
Nov-Dec'20 Jan-Mar'21 Apr-Jun'21
Downward revision
8.3% to 12.8%10.1% to 13.5%
Upward revisionData as of 24 Jun'21; Estimates likely to be revised further
42 Copy
righ
t © 2
021
by B
osto
n Co
nsul
ting
Gro
up. A
ll ri
ghts
rese
rved
.
The services and materials provided by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) are subject to BCG's Standard Terms (a copy of which is available upon request) or such other agreement as may have been previously executed by BCG. BCG does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. The Client is responsible for obtaining independent advice concerning these matters. This advice may affect the guidance given by BCG. Further, BCG has made no undertaking to update these materials after the date hereof, notwithstanding that such information may become outdated or inaccurate.
The materials contained in this presentation are designed for the sole use by the board of directors or senior management of the Client and solely for the limited purposes described in the presentation. The materials shall not be copied or given to any person or entity other than the Client (“Third Party”) without the prior written consent of BCG. These materials serve only as the focus for discussion; they are incomplete without the accompanying oral commentary and may not be relied on as a stand-alone document. Further, Third Parties may not, and it is unreasonable for any Third Party to, rely on these materials for any purpose whatsoever. To the fullest extent permitted by law (and except to the extent otherwise agreed in a signed writing by BCG), BCG shall have no liability whatsoever to any Third Party, and any Third Party hereby waives any rights and claims it may have at any time against BCG with regard to the services, this presentation, or other materials, including the accuracy or completeness thereof. Receipt and review of this document shall be deemed agreement with and consideration for the foregoing.
BCG does not provide fairness opinions or valuations of market transactions, and these materials should not be relied on or construed as such. Further, the financial evaluations, projected market and financial information, and conclusions contained in these materials are based upon standard valuation methodologies, are not definitive forecasts, and are not guaranteed by BCG. BCG has used public and/or confidential data and assumptions provided to BCG by the Client. BCG has not independently verified the data and assumptions used in these analyses. Changes in the underlying data or operating assumptions will clearly impact the analyses and conclusions.
The situation surrounding COVID-19 is dynamic and rapidly evolving, on a daily basis. Although we have taken great care prior to producing this presentation, it represents BCG’s view at a particular point in time. This presentation is not intended to: (i) constitute medical or safety advice, nor be a substitute for the same; nor (ii) be seen as a formal endorsement or recommendation of a particular response. As such you are advised to make your own assessment as to the appropriate course of action to take, using this presentation as guidance. Please carefully consider local laws and guidance in your area, particularly the most recent advice issued by your local (and national) health authorities, before making any decision.
Disclaimer
THANK YOU