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TRANSCRIPT
Page 1
Orbis Investments
Seema Dala
25 May 2016
BCI Global Conference
Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2016.
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Orbis Investments
Monetary easing, currency weakening, stock market strength
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Nov 12 Mar 13 Jul 13 Nov 13 Mar 14 Jul 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15 Mar 16
Bank of Japan total assets (rebased) (left)
TOPIX price (rebased) (left)
JPY per USD (rebased) (right)
Bank of Japan total assets, TOPIX price, and JPY per USD, rebased, Nov 2012 through Mar 2016
Source: Bloomberg.
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Orbis Investments
Margins in Japan Have Only Been This High Once Since 1998
Source: Bloomberg.
Return on equity and operating profit margin of the MSCI Japan Index, 1998 through 31 March 2016
31 March 2016
The Bank of Japan’s monetary easing and the resulting weakening in the yen has had a transformative impact on Japanese corporate profitability, which is now
near its highest levels since the inception of the Orbis Japan Equity Strategy at the start of 1998.
(5.0%)
(2.5%)
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Return on equity
Operating profit margin
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Orbis Investments
ConstructionMiningRetail TradeInformation & Comms.
Wholesale Trade
Orbis Japan: Key Overweights
Stocks shown are the three largest >1% positions in each area, where applicable.
*Names of holdings which exceeded 1% at 31 March 2016, but did not do so in any Orbis Fund at 31 December 2015, will be disclosed in early May 2016 in accordance with our disclosure policy.
31 March 2016
5 key overweights – 53% of Orbis Japan vs 21% of TOPIX
Orbis Japan TOPIX
+13% +6% +5% +4% +4%
Sumitomo 6.6
Mitsubishi 6.5
Ship Healthcare 3.8
NEXON 6.6
Nippon Television 4.5
SoftBank Group 2.3
INPEX 4.8 Daito Trust 6.8
16.9%13.9%
10.5%
5.1%4.2%
8.2%4.8%
0.3%
6.8%
3.2%
Sundrug 4.2
TSURUHA 4.1
New >1% Holding* 1.5
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Orbis Investments
Mitsubishi Corp: Trading at a Discount to TNAV Despite Steady TNAV Growth
29 February 2016
Source: Mitsubishi, Datastream, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March. *Clean surplus TNAV is the sum of TNAV at the beginning of the period and net income over the period, less any dividends paid over the period.
Share price data is from 1 April 1976 to 29 February 2016.
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Orbis Investments
Mitsubishi Corp: Current Profits Are Depressed, Especially in Resources
29 February 2016
Source: Mitsubishi, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.
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Orbis Investments
Sundrug and Tsuruha: Long-Term Growth Through Increasing Store Count
29 February 2016
Source: Company data. Numbers rebased to 100 at the end of the 2001 fiscal year. Sundrug’s fiscal year ends in March; Tsuruha’s ends in May.
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Orbis Investments
Sundrug and Tsuruha: Continued Growth Potential from Industry Consolidation
29 February 2016
Source: Cocokara Fine, Japan Association of Chain Drug Stores. Number of stores, number of companies, and industry sales rebased to 100 at March 2000.
Japan’s drugstore industry is growing and consolidating… … yet it remains highly fragmented
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Orbis Investments
Daito Trust Construction: Value Despite Elevated Valuations in the Market
30 June 2015
Gross profit margins are well below average, but we believe they can recover
This analysis was taken from the Orbis quarterly investment commentaries. More details can be found in the 30 June 2015 Quarterly Reports for the Orbis Equity Funds.
25%
30%
35%
40%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Daito's construction segment gross profit margin
15-year average gross profit margin for Daito's construction segment
Forecast
Source: Company reports, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.
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Orbis Investments
Daito Trust Construction: Value Despite Elevated Valuations in the Market
30 June 2015
Steadily gained market share in new rental housing starts in Japan
This analysis was taken from the Orbis quarterly investment commentaries. More details can be found in the 30 June 2015 Quarterly Reports for the Orbis Equity Funds.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Daito's share of new rental housing starts
Source: Company reports, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.
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Orbis Investments
Comparing the Household Names to Those We Own
Source: Datastream, Company websites, Orbis. *Orbis earnings estimates for NetEase, Qualcomm and Sberbank, consensus estimates for Kellogg, Nestle and Kikkoman. March 2017 estimate used for Kikkoman,
September 2016 estimate used for Qualcomm. ** 10-year historical average. ***Net interest income plus non interest income.
30 September 2015
Sector CountryPrice to earnings
(2016 estimates)*
Revenue growth per
annum**
Net debt/(cash) to
market cap
Kellogg Consumer Staples US 18 6% 30%
Nestle Consumer Staples Switzerland 20 2% 9%
Kikkoman Consumer Staples Japan 29 5% 6%
NetEase Technology China 16 28% (26%)
QUALCOMM Technology US 11 18% (12%)
Sberbank Financials Russia 5 26%*** Not meaningful
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Orbis Investments
Orbis Japan (Yen): Long-Term Returns
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital
is at risk. Strategy returns represent combined returns for all Funds following the same investment objective. Please refer to the notices page explaining how returns are calculated, in particular assumptions used for Orbis Refundable Reserve Fee (RRF)
Returns. The returns of an actual Member may vary depending on the timing and value of a Member’s subscriptions and redemptions. The Average Japan Equity Fund index is comprised of Japan Large-Cap Equity funds which invest principally in the
equities of large-cap Japanese companies as defined by Morningstar. †TOPIX including income, net of withholding taxes. *The Morningstar data for 21 April 2016 has been extended to reflect the move in the TOPIX through 30 April 2016.
30 April 2016
600
700
800
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
5,000
6,000
Valu
e (Y
en)
7.8% p.a.
2.1% p.a.
1.4% p.a.
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
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Orbis Investments
Notices – Orbis Investment Advisory LimitedLegal Notices
Approved for use in the United Kingdom by Orbis Investment Advisory Limited, 15 Portland Place, London, England W1B 1PT; a firm authorised and
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). These materials have been prepared by Orbis to form a presentation on the Orbis investment
methodology. Except in regard to the Orbis SICAV, a UK recognised scheme available to all UK resident investors, this communication is directed at
professional clients (as defined in the FCA Handbook). None of the Orbis funds are regulated by the FCA although the Orbis SICAV has been
recognised by the FCA. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to such persons. Persons who are
not professional clients should not rely on this communication. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest in the Orbis Funds.
Subscriptions are only valid if made on the basis of the current prospectus or offering memorandum of an Orbis Fund.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Results may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. Orbis Fund share
prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. This presentation provides general
information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any shares or other securities in the companies mentioned in it (“relevant
securities”) nor does it constitute financial advice, and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the
independence of investment research. Entities and employees of the Orbis Group are not subject to restrictions on dealing in relevant securities ahead
of the dissemination of this presentation. While we have endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information herein, such information is not
guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. At any time, members of the Orbis Group may have long or short positions in, and may be buying or
selling, the investments, if any, referred to in this presentation. This document has been prepared solely for the information of the party to whom it has
been delivered and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. All rights reserved.
Except as otherwise specifically stated, all information and investment team commentary, including portfolio security positions, is as at the date stated in
the top right corner of each page. The views expressed are subject to change without notice. This presentation contains some forward-looking
statements providing current expectations or forecasts of future events; they do not necessarily relate to historical or current facts. There can be no
guarantee that any forward statement will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of
new information, future events, or otherwise. Any discussions of specific securities should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell those
securities. A Fund may buy, sell, or hold any security discussed herein, on the basis of factors described herein or the basis of other factors or other
considerations. Fund holdings will change.
Returns
Net returns for Orbis Funds are calculated gross of all income, net of fees and expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Gross returns are
calculated gross of all income, net of all expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Where Average Fund Data is presented, the latest
Morningstar data for 24 March 2016 has been extended to reflect the move in the Fund’s Index through 31 March 2016.
RRF Share Class Returns
Orbis Zero Base Refundable Reserve Fee (RRF) returns are based on a hypothetical Member in the Zero Base RRF structure since the inception of
each identified Orbis Fund, and assume a US$100 million investment at inception with no subsequent transactions in the Fund. Orbis Core RRF class
returns are based on a hypothetical Member in the Orbis Core RRF structure since the inception of each identified Orbis Fund, and assume a US$20
million investment at inception with no subsequent transactions in the Fund.
Strategy Returns
Strategy gross returns are asset-weighted actual gross returns of all the Funds following the same investment objective. Strategy net returns are based
on the specified fee structure applied to the Strategy gross returns and do not represent actual net returns experienced by investors in the relevant
Funds.
Orbis Institutional Global Equity Fund
Prior to 3 October 2014, the Orbis Institutional Global Equity Fund aimed to be fully invested in the Orbis Global Equity Fund. Following the Fund’s
Dealing Day on 2 October 2014, the Fund received an in specie distribution of securities and cash from Orbis Global Equity Fund, and started holding
underlying investments directly. Any information which relates to the Fund’s investments prior to 3 October 2014 pertains to the Orbis Global Equity
Fund.
Sources
FTSE: FTSE World Index data source is FTSE International Limited ("FTSE”) © FTSE 2015. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange
Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and/ or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither
FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution
of FTSE data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent. MSCI: The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be
reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None
of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment
decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance
analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use
made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI
information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy,
completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of
the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without
limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com). Tokyo Stock Price Index (“TOPIX”): Tokyo Stock Exchange. TOPIX hedged into US$
and euro are calculated by Orbis using an industry-standard methodology using the TOPIX which is in yen and is proprietary to the Tokyo Stock
Exchange. No further distribution of the TOPIX data is permitted. Morningstar: © 2015 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The Morningstar information
contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be
accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this
information. Hedge Fund Research Equity Market Neutral Index: Bloomberg.
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Orbis Investments
30 September 2015Copyright
The content and information provided are owned by Allan Gray Proprietary Limited ("Allan Gray") and Orbis Investment Management Limited (“Orbis”), as the case may be, and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. All
rights not expressly granted are reserved. The content and information may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray and Orbis, as the case may be.
Information and content
The content of this presentation is provided by Allan Gray as general information about the company and its products and services. Allan Gray does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any information or particular investment
source. The information provided is not intended nor does it constitute financial, tax, legal, investment, or other advice. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should consult a licensed financial adviser.
Nothing contained in the presentation constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or offer by Allan Gray, but shall merely be deemed to be an invitation to do business.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. This presentation provides general information only
and not financial product or investment advice. While we have endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information herein such information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. At any time, members of the Orbis Group may
have long or short positions in, and may be buying or selling, the investments, if any, referred to in this presentation. This document has been prepared solely for the information of the party to whom it has been delivered and may not be
reproduced or used for any other purpose. All rights reserved.
Except as otherwise specifically stated, all information and investment team commentary, including portfolio security positions, is as at the date stated in the top right corner of each page. The views expressed are subject to change without
notice. This presentation contains some forward-looking statements providing current expectations or forecasts of future events; they do not necessarily relate to historical or current facts. There can be no guarantee that any forward statement
will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Any discussions of specific securities should not be considered a recommendation to
buy or sell those securities. A Fund may buy, sell, or hold any security discussed herein, on the basis of factors described herein or the basis of other factors or other considerations. Fund holdings will change.
FTSE: FTSE World Index data source is FTSE International Limited ("FTSE”) © FTSE 2015. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and/ or FTSE
ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE data is permitted without FTSE's
express written consent.
Collective investment schemes (unit trusts or funds) are generally medium- to long-term investments. The value of units may go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. There is no guarantee
regarding the capital or the performance of the Funds. The Funds are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending, subject to the disclosure documents. Unit prices are calculated on a net asset value basis, which is the
total market value of all assets in the Fund, divided by the number of units in issue. Orbis Funds trade weekly on a Thursday and unit prices as well as a schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions can be obtained free of charge by
contacting Allan Gray, or from www.allangray.co.za.
Shares of Orbis Global Equity Fund and Investor Share Classes of the Orbis SICAV Funds (Global Balanced, Asia ex-Japan Equity and Japan Equity): The Funds pay a performance-based fee. The fee is based on the net asset value of the
Fund (share class, in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds). The fee rate is calculated weekly by comparing the Fund’s (share class, in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds) performance over three years against its benchmark. For each
percentage point of three year performance above or below that benchmark’s performance, 0.04 percentage points are added to or subtracted from 1.5%, subject to (a) a maximum fee of 2.5% per annum and (b) a minimum fee of 0.5% per
annum. Note: During the first three years of the Global Balanced Fund’s existence, (a) returns will be calculated from the launch of the class and grossed up to represent returns over three years and (b) a portion of the fee may be refunded to
the Fund pursuant to predetermined conditions. Shares of Orbis Optimal SA Fund Limited: There are two parts to the fee: (a) a base fee of 1.0% per annum, paid monthly, of the total net assets of each share class; plus (b) a performance fee of
20% of the outperformance of each class of Fund share’s weekly rate of return relative to its performance fee hurdle, calculated and accrued on each dealing day and paid monthly. The performance fee incorporates a high water mark.
Disclaimer
Allan Gray has taken and will continue to take care that all information provided, in so far as this is under its control, is true and correct. However, Allan Gray shall not be responsible for and therefore disclaims any liability for any loss, liability,
damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance upon any information provided.
Legal Notes – Allan Gray Proprietary Limited