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Page 1: BCI Global Conferencedocuments.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique Collective... · 2016-06-07 · 25 May 2016 BCI Global Conference ... We undertake no obligation to publicly update

Page 1

Orbis Investments

Seema Dala

25 May 2016

BCI Global Conference

Allan Gray Proprietary Limited is an authorised financial services provider. © Allan Gray 2016.

Page 2: BCI Global Conferencedocuments.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique Collective... · 2016-06-07 · 25 May 2016 BCI Global Conference ... We undertake no obligation to publicly update

Page 2

Orbis Investments

Monetary easing, currency weakening, stock market strength

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

Nov 12 Mar 13 Jul 13 Nov 13 Mar 14 Jul 14 Nov 14 Mar 15 Jul 15 Nov 15 Mar 16

Bank of Japan total assets (rebased) (left)

TOPIX price (rebased) (left)

JPY per USD (rebased) (right)

Bank of Japan total assets, TOPIX price, and JPY per USD, rebased, Nov 2012 through Mar 2016

Source: Bloomberg.

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Page 3

Orbis Investments

Margins in Japan Have Only Been This High Once Since 1998

Source: Bloomberg.

Return on equity and operating profit margin of the MSCI Japan Index, 1998 through 31 March 2016

31 March 2016

The Bank of Japan’s monetary easing and the resulting weakening in the yen has had a transformative impact on Japanese corporate profitability, which is now

near its highest levels since the inception of the Orbis Japan Equity Strategy at the start of 1998.

(5.0%)

(2.5%)

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Return on equity

Operating profit margin

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Orbis Investments

ConstructionMiningRetail TradeInformation & Comms.

Wholesale Trade

Orbis Japan: Key Overweights

Stocks shown are the three largest >1% positions in each area, where applicable.

*Names of holdings which exceeded 1% at 31 March 2016, but did not do so in any Orbis Fund at 31 December 2015, will be disclosed in early May 2016 in accordance with our disclosure policy.

31 March 2016

5 key overweights – 53% of Orbis Japan vs 21% of TOPIX

Orbis Japan TOPIX

+13% +6% +5% +4% +4%

Sumitomo 6.6

Mitsubishi 6.5

Ship Healthcare 3.8

NEXON 6.6

Nippon Television 4.5

SoftBank Group 2.3

INPEX 4.8 Daito Trust 6.8

16.9%13.9%

10.5%

5.1%4.2%

8.2%4.8%

0.3%

6.8%

3.2%

Sundrug 4.2

TSURUHA 4.1

New >1% Holding* 1.5

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Orbis Investments

Mitsubishi Corp: Trading at a Discount to TNAV Despite Steady TNAV Growth

29 February 2016

Source: Mitsubishi, Datastream, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March. *Clean surplus TNAV is the sum of TNAV at the beginning of the period and net income over the period, less any dividends paid over the period.

Share price data is from 1 April 1976 to 29 February 2016.

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Page 6

Orbis Investments

Mitsubishi Corp: Current Profits Are Depressed, Especially in Resources

29 February 2016

Source: Mitsubishi, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.

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Page 7

Orbis Investments

Sundrug and Tsuruha: Long-Term Growth Through Increasing Store Count

29 February 2016

Source: Company data. Numbers rebased to 100 at the end of the 2001 fiscal year. Sundrug’s fiscal year ends in March; Tsuruha’s ends in May.

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Page 8

Orbis Investments

Sundrug and Tsuruha: Continued Growth Potential from Industry Consolidation

29 February 2016

Source: Cocokara Fine, Japan Association of Chain Drug Stores. Number of stores, number of companies, and industry sales rebased to 100 at March 2000.

Japan’s drugstore industry is growing and consolidating… … yet it remains highly fragmented

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Orbis Investments

Daito Trust Construction: Value Despite Elevated Valuations in the Market

30 June 2015

Gross profit margins are well below average, but we believe they can recover

This analysis was taken from the Orbis quarterly investment commentaries. More details can be found in the 30 June 2015 Quarterly Reports for the Orbis Equity Funds.

25%

30%

35%

40%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Daito's construction segment gross profit margin

15-year average gross profit margin for Daito's construction segment

Forecast

Source: Company reports, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.

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Orbis Investments

Daito Trust Construction: Value Despite Elevated Valuations in the Market

30 June 2015

Steadily gained market share in new rental housing starts in Japan

This analysis was taken from the Orbis quarterly investment commentaries. More details can be found in the 30 June 2015 Quarterly Reports for the Orbis Equity Funds.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Daito's share of new rental housing starts

Source: Company reports, Orbis. Data for years ending 31 March.

Page 11: BCI Global Conferencedocuments.efgroup.co.za/Documents/Boutique Collective... · 2016-06-07 · 25 May 2016 BCI Global Conference ... We undertake no obligation to publicly update

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Orbis Investments

Comparing the Household Names to Those We Own

Source: Datastream, Company websites, Orbis. *Orbis earnings estimates for NetEase, Qualcomm and Sberbank, consensus estimates for Kellogg, Nestle and Kikkoman. March 2017 estimate used for Kikkoman,

September 2016 estimate used for Qualcomm. ** 10-year historical average. ***Net interest income plus non interest income.

30 September 2015

Sector CountryPrice to earnings

(2016 estimates)*

Revenue growth per

annum**

Net debt/(cash) to

market cap

Kellogg Consumer Staples US 18 6% 30%

Nestle Consumer Staples Switzerland 20 2% 9%

Kikkoman Consumer Staples Japan 29 5% 6%

NetEase Technology China 16 28% (26%)

QUALCOMM Technology US 11 18% (12%)

Sberbank Financials Russia 5 26%*** Not meaningful

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Orbis Investments

Orbis Japan (Yen): Long-Term Returns

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital

is at risk. Strategy returns represent combined returns for all Funds following the same investment objective. Please refer to the notices page explaining how returns are calculated, in particular assumptions used for Orbis Refundable Reserve Fee (RRF)

Returns. The returns of an actual Member may vary depending on the timing and value of a Member’s subscriptions and redemptions. The Average Japan Equity Fund index is comprised of Japan Large-Cap Equity funds which invest principally in the

equities of large-cap Japanese companies as defined by Morningstar. †TOPIX including income, net of withholding taxes. *The Morningstar data for 21 April 2016 has been extended to reflect the move in the TOPIX through 30 April 2016.

30 April 2016

600

700

800

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

5,000

6,000

Valu

e (Y

en)

7.8% p.a.

2.1% p.a.

1.4% p.a.

98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

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Orbis Investments

Notices – Orbis Investment Advisory LimitedLegal Notices

Approved for use in the United Kingdom by Orbis Investment Advisory Limited, 15 Portland Place, London, England W1B 1PT; a firm authorised and

regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). These materials have been prepared by Orbis to form a presentation on the Orbis investment

methodology. Except in regard to the Orbis SICAV, a UK recognised scheme available to all UK resident investors, this communication is directed at

professional clients (as defined in the FCA Handbook). None of the Orbis funds are regulated by the FCA although the Orbis SICAV has been

recognised by the FCA. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to such persons. Persons who are

not professional clients should not rely on this communication. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest in the Orbis Funds.

Subscriptions are only valid if made on the basis of the current prospectus or offering memorandum of an Orbis Fund.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Results may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. Orbis Fund share

prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. This presentation provides general

information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any shares or other securities in the companies mentioned in it (“relevant

securities”) nor does it constitute financial advice, and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the

independence of investment research. Entities and employees of the Orbis Group are not subject to restrictions on dealing in relevant securities ahead

of the dissemination of this presentation. While we have endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information herein, such information is not

guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. At any time, members of the Orbis Group may have long or short positions in, and may be buying or

selling, the investments, if any, referred to in this presentation. This document has been prepared solely for the information of the party to whom it has

been delivered and may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. All rights reserved.

Except as otherwise specifically stated, all information and investment team commentary, including portfolio security positions, is as at the date stated in

the top right corner of each page. The views expressed are subject to change without notice. This presentation contains some forward-looking

statements providing current expectations or forecasts of future events; they do not necessarily relate to historical or current facts. There can be no

guarantee that any forward statement will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of

new information, future events, or otherwise. Any discussions of specific securities should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell those

securities. A Fund may buy, sell, or hold any security discussed herein, on the basis of factors described herein or the basis of other factors or other

considerations. Fund holdings will change.

Returns

Net returns for Orbis Funds are calculated gross of all income, net of fees and expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Gross returns are

calculated gross of all income, net of all expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Where Average Fund Data is presented, the latest

Morningstar data for 24 March 2016 has been extended to reflect the move in the Fund’s Index through 31 March 2016.

RRF Share Class Returns

Orbis Zero Base Refundable Reserve Fee (RRF) returns are based on a hypothetical Member in the Zero Base RRF structure since the inception of

each identified Orbis Fund, and assume a US$100 million investment at inception with no subsequent transactions in the Fund. Orbis Core RRF class

returns are based on a hypothetical Member in the Orbis Core RRF structure since the inception of each identified Orbis Fund, and assume a US$20

million investment at inception with no subsequent transactions in the Fund.

Strategy Returns

Strategy gross returns are asset-weighted actual gross returns of all the Funds following the same investment objective. Strategy net returns are based

on the specified fee structure applied to the Strategy gross returns and do not represent actual net returns experienced by investors in the relevant

Funds.

Orbis Institutional Global Equity Fund

Prior to 3 October 2014, the Orbis Institutional Global Equity Fund aimed to be fully invested in the Orbis Global Equity Fund. Following the Fund’s

Dealing Day on 2 October 2014, the Fund received an in specie distribution of securities and cash from Orbis Global Equity Fund, and started holding

underlying investments directly. Any information which relates to the Fund’s investments prior to 3 October 2014 pertains to the Orbis Global Equity

Fund.

Sources

FTSE: FTSE World Index data source is FTSE International Limited ("FTSE”) © FTSE 2015. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange

Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and/ or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither

FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution

of FTSE data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent. MSCI: The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be

reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None

of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment

decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance

analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use

made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI

information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy,

completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of

the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without

limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com). Tokyo Stock Price Index (“TOPIX”): Tokyo Stock Exchange. TOPIX hedged into US$

and euro are calculated by Orbis using an industry-standard methodology using the TOPIX which is in yen and is proprietary to the Tokyo Stock

Exchange. No further distribution of the TOPIX data is permitted. Morningstar: © 2015 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The Morningstar information

contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be

accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this

information. Hedge Fund Research Equity Market Neutral Index: Bloomberg.

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Orbis Investments

30 September 2015Copyright

The content and information provided are owned by Allan Gray Proprietary Limited ("Allan Gray") and Orbis Investment Management Limited (“Orbis”), as the case may be, and are protected by copyright and other intellectual property laws. All

rights not expressly granted are reserved. The content and information may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray and Orbis, as the case may be.

Information and content

The content of this presentation is provided by Allan Gray as general information about the company and its products and services. Allan Gray does not guarantee the suitability or potential value of any information or particular investment

source. The information provided is not intended nor does it constitute financial, tax, legal, investment, or other advice. Before making any decision or taking any action regarding your finances, you should consult a licensed financial adviser.

Nothing contained in the presentation constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement or offer by Allan Gray, but shall merely be deemed to be an invitation to do business.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. When making an investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. This presentation provides general information only

and not financial product or investment advice. While we have endeavoured to ensure the accuracy of the information herein such information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. At any time, members of the Orbis Group may

have long or short positions in, and may be buying or selling, the investments, if any, referred to in this presentation. This document has been prepared solely for the information of the party to whom it has been delivered and may not be

reproduced or used for any other purpose. All rights reserved.

Except as otherwise specifically stated, all information and investment team commentary, including portfolio security positions, is as at the date stated in the top right corner of each page. The views expressed are subject to change without

notice. This presentation contains some forward-looking statements providing current expectations or forecasts of future events; they do not necessarily relate to historical or current facts. There can be no guarantee that any forward statement

will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Any discussions of specific securities should not be considered a recommendation to

buy or sell those securities. A Fund may buy, sell, or hold any security discussed herein, on the basis of factors described herein or the basis of other factors or other considerations. Fund holdings will change.

FTSE: FTSE World Index data source is FTSE International Limited ("FTSE”) © FTSE 2015. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and/ or FTSE

ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE data is permitted without FTSE's

express written consent.

Collective investment schemes (unit trusts or funds) are generally medium- to long-term investments. The value of units may go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. There is no guarantee

regarding the capital or the performance of the Funds. The Funds are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending, subject to the disclosure documents. Unit prices are calculated on a net asset value basis, which is the

total market value of all assets in the Fund, divided by the number of units in issue. Orbis Funds trade weekly on a Thursday and unit prices as well as a schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions can be obtained free of charge by

contacting Allan Gray, or from www.allangray.co.za.

Shares of Orbis Global Equity Fund and Investor Share Classes of the Orbis SICAV Funds (Global Balanced, Asia ex-Japan Equity and Japan Equity): The Funds pay a performance-based fee. The fee is based on the net asset value of the

Fund (share class, in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds). The fee rate is calculated weekly by comparing the Fund’s (share class, in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds) performance over three years against its benchmark. For each

percentage point of three year performance above or below that benchmark’s performance, 0.04 percentage points are added to or subtracted from 1.5%, subject to (a) a maximum fee of 2.5% per annum and (b) a minimum fee of 0.5% per

annum. Note: During the first three years of the Global Balanced Fund’s existence, (a) returns will be calculated from the launch of the class and grossed up to represent returns over three years and (b) a portion of the fee may be refunded to

the Fund pursuant to predetermined conditions. Shares of Orbis Optimal SA Fund Limited: There are two parts to the fee: (a) a base fee of 1.0% per annum, paid monthly, of the total net assets of each share class; plus (b) a performance fee of

20% of the outperformance of each class of Fund share’s weekly rate of return relative to its performance fee hurdle, calculated and accrued on each dealing day and paid monthly. The performance fee incorporates a high water mark.

Disclaimer

Allan Gray has taken and will continue to take care that all information provided, in so far as this is under its control, is true and correct. However, Allan Gray shall not be responsible for and therefore disclaims any liability for any loss, liability,

damage (whether direct or consequential) or expense of any nature whatsoever which may be suffered as a result of or which may be attributable, directly or indirectly, to the use of or reliance upon any information provided.

Legal Notes – Allan Gray Proprietary Limited